How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 4/20100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Orlando 1 Vancouver 0 -0.9
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
Chicago 4 Colorado 1 -0.9
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
Atlanta 1 FC Dallas 2 +0.7
-0.1
+0.1
Columbus 1 Portland 3 +0.5
+0.1
+0.3
+0.0
Philadelphia 3 Montreal 0 -0.2
New England 1 NY Red Bulls 0 -0.1
+0.1
San Jose 4 Sporting KC 1 +0.2
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
NYCFC vs Chicago+9.1-2.1-7.7
+0.8-0.2-0.6
+0.4-0.1-0.3
-2.6+0.4+2.4
+0.7-0.2-0.6
DC United vs NYCFC-7.4-2.2+8.9
-0.6-0.2+0.8
-0.3-0.1+0.4
+2.3+0.4-2.6
-0.6-0.2+0.7
New England vs Montreal-0.2+0.4-0.1
+0.1-0.0-0.1
Columbus vs DC United-0.3+0.3+0.1
Seattle vs San Jose-0.2-0.0+0.2
Minnesota vs LA Galaxy+0.1-0.0-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 4/27100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
NYCFC vs Orlando+9.1-2.1-7.7
+0.8-0.2-0.6
+0.4-0.1-0.3
-2.6+0.4+2.3
+0.7-0.2-0.6
Sporting KC vs New England+0.7+0.2-0.8
-0.1-0.0+0.1
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Atlanta vs Colorado-0.8+0.2+0.7
-0.1+0.0+0.0
-0.3-0.1+0.4
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Houston vs Columbus+0.6+0.2-0.7
+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Vancouver vs Philadelphia+0.6+0.2-0.7
+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.3-0.1-0.2
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Minnesota vs DC United+0.5+0.1-0.5
+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.1*-0.0-0.0
Toronto FC vs Portland-0.5+0.1+0.4
-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.2-0.0+0.3
NY Red Bulls vs Cincinnati-0.1+0.5-0.2
+0.1-0.1-0.1
Philadelphia vs Cincinnati*+0.0+0.4-0.3
-0.1-0.0+0.1
Montreal vs Chicago-0.1+0.4-0.2
LA Galaxy vs RSL-0.1-0.0+0.1
FC Dallas vs San Jose-0.2-0.0+0.2
Colorado vs Vancouver+0.2-0.1-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the NYCFC finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield123456789101112SpoonCount
75-89In100.0%100No35,167*
7422-3-3In99.11000No1,211*
7321-5-2In98.71000No2,267*
7221-4-3In98.21000No4,456*
7121-3-4In97.21000No7,755*
7020-5-3In94.9991No14,296*
6920-4-4In92.4991No24,595*
6820-3-5In88.99820No41,385*
6719-5-4In84.79730No69,184*
6619-4-5In78.79640No110,713*
6518-6-4In71.394600No174,052*
6418-5-5In62.491900No266,994*
6318-4-6In52.3871200No403,524*
6217-6-5In41.58217100No591,929*
6117-5-6In30.67622200No851,708*
6016-7-5In20.66828400No1,200,470*
5916-6-6In12.459356000No1,656,184*
5816-5-7In6.44940101000No2,235,160*
5715-7-6In2.83843162000No2,959,306*
5615-6-7In1.02844235100No3,836,063*
5515-5-8100.0%0.3184030101000No4,871,594*
5414-7-7100.00.0113435164000No6,074,950*
5314-6-8100.00.0625362481000No7,414,594*
5214-5-9100.00.031633311430000No8,885,084*
5113-7-899.90.01825332381000No10,433,755*
5013-6-999.4No041630301541000No12,008,233*
4912-8-897.7No018233224102000No13,565,821*
4812-7-993.3No0031328301861000No15,022,826*
4712-6-1084.0No0016193127133000No16,315,719*
4611-8-969.0No0002102531228100No17,376,370*
4511-7-1050.0No0001416292916410No18,137,265*
4411-6-1131.1No0000182232251020No18,572,384*
4310-8-1016.4No000313283218500.0%18,648,049*
4210-7-117.3No000162033281110.018,333,237*
4110-6-122.7No000021229341940.017,683,598*
409-8-110.8No0001621362980.116,707,454*
399-7-120.2No0002133337140.515,455,031*
389-6-130.0No000172642231.914,007,222*
378-8-120.0No00031944345.012,430,458*
368-7-130.0No00112414610.610,797,810*
358-6-140.0No0017365719.09,170,399*
347-8-130.0No0004296729.67,627,687*
337-7-14OutNo002227641.46,193,358*
327-6-15OutNo001168353.24,915,904*
316-8-14OutNo00118864.23,814,043*
306-7-15OutNo0089273.52,882,005*
296-6-16OutNo0059581.12,128,167*
285-8-15OutNo039786.91,528,939*
275-7-16OutNo0029891.31,072,037*
265-6-17OutNo019994.2730,577*
254-8-16OutNo019996.4483,838*
244-7-17OutNo0010097.7310,522*
234-6-18OutNo010098.6192,449*
223-8-17OutNo010099.1116,252*
213-7-18OutNo010099.567,659*
203-6-19OutNo010099.738,076*
193-5-20OutNo010099.820,445*
182-7-19OutNo010099.910,564*
5-17OutNo100100.043,750*
Total:41.7%0.6%34567899101113156.7%328,574,544

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the NYCFC finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeToronto FCDC UnitedColumbusPhiladelphiaOrlandoMontrealChicagoCincinnatiAtlantaNew EnglandNY Red Bulls
66-8912.5%Yes
6518-6-412.41000
6418-5-512.410000000
6318-4-612.510000000000000
6217-6-512.510000000000000
6117-5-612.510000000000000
6016-7-512.510000000000000
5916-6-612.510000000000000
5816-5-712.49900000000000
15-8-512.49900000000000
5715-7-612.39700000000000
16-4-812.39700000000000
5615-6-712.19411111110000
14-9-512.19511111100000
5515-5-811.88911111111111
14-8-611.88911111111111
5414-7-711.27922222221111
15-4-911.28022222221111
13-10-511.38122222221111
5314-6-810.36644443332222
13-9-610.46744443332222
15-3-1010.56834443332222
5214-5-99.25155555543332
13-8-79.15055555543332
12-11-59.35355554443332
5113-7-87.73366666654433
14-4-107.93566666654433
12-10-67.93666666654433
5013-6-96.21967776664443
12-9-76.22067776664443
14-3-116.42267776664443
4912-8-84.5966666654433
13-5-104.61066665554433
11-11-64.81166666654443
4812-7-92.9344444443332
13-4-113.2445554443333
11-10-73.1445554443332
4712-6-101.7133333322222
11-9-81.8133333322222
4611-8-90.8011111111111
12-5-110.9011111111111
4511-7-100.3011111100000
4411-6-110.1000000000000
4310-8-100.0000000000000
4210-7-110.0000000000000
4110-6-120.0000000000000
409-8-110.000000000000
399-7-12No000000000
389-6-13No00
5-37No
Total:2.4%12.41.41.41.51.51.31.31.20.90.90.80.7
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 4/20100.0*Lottery seed
Orlando 1 Vancouver 0 +0.1
Chicago 4 Colorado 1 +0.1
Atlanta 1 FC Dallas 2 -0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
NYCFC vs Chicago-1.4+0.3+1.2
DC United vs NYCFC+1.2+0.3-1.4
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 4/27100.0*Lottery seed
NYCFC vs Orlando-1.4+0.3+1.2
Houston vs Columbus-0.1-0.0+0.1
Sporting KC vs New England-0.0-0.0+0.1
Atlanta vs Colorado+0.1-0.0-0.0
Minnesota vs DC United-0.0-0.0+0.1
Vancouver vs Philadelphia-0.0-0.0+0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L123456789101112131415161718192021222324
77-89100
7623-2-3991
7522-4-2991
7422-3-39910
7321-5-29910
7221-4-39820
7121-3-49720
7020-5-39541
6920-4-49261
6820-3-589920
6719-5-48513300
6619-4-57917400
6518-6-471236000
6418-5-562299000
6318-4-65235121000
6217-6-541411511000
6117-5-631451932000
6016-7-5214722630000
5916-6-612462411600000
5816-5-764222189110000
5715-7-63351825133200000
5615-6-71271232167501000
5515-5-8018734171391100000
5414-7-70113311322133400000
5314-6-80612482815971100000
5214-5-90301632913181233000000
5113-7-801081248251587110000
5013-6-90040163271317133401000
4912-8-800108122725159912000
4812-7-90003013225121815361000
4712-6-1000010601962416101141000
4611-8-9000020102231220171031000
4511-7-10000010401552417191031000
4411-6-11000001081201122211131000
4310-8-1000000301351625221131000
4210-7-11000010618202722113100
4110-6-120000002031022282210300
409-8-110000101412242920820
399-7-1200000151527291751
389-6-1300000027203127122
378-8-120000003112633215
368-7-1300001518343111
358-6-140000210293919
347-8-13000015224330
337-7-140002154241
327-6-1500193753
316-8-1400053164
306-7-150022473
296-6-160011881
285-8-150011387
275-7-1600991
265-6-1700694
254-8-1600496
244-7-170298
234-6-180199
223-8-17199
213-7-18199
203-6-190100
193-5-200100
182-7-190100
172-6-200100
162-5-210100
5-15100
Total:121314252525354556666777