SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Los Angeles Galaxy Playoff Chances 2017 50/50

Lost to Portland 1-3, playoff odds down 8.1 to 11.3%

23 points 6-5-11

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 8/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Wooden Spoon	100.0*	Average seed
Portland 3 Los Angeles 1	-8.1		+3.2		-0.6
San Jose 2 Columbus 1	-1.4				-0.1
Minnesota 0 Seattle 4	-0.9		-0.5
Real Salt Lake 0 Houston 0	+0.4		-0.1		+0.0
Colorado 2 Vancouver 2	+0.4		-0.1		+0.0
Philadelphia 3 FC Dallas 1	+0.3		+0.2
Sporting KC 1 Atlanta 1	*-0.1
Chicago 4 New England 1			-0.1
DC United 1 Toronto FC 1			-0.4
Montreal 2 Orlando 1			+0.2

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 8/12	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Wooden Spoon	100.0*	Average seed
Los Angeles vs NYCFC	+6.6-2.2-4.9		-4.9+0.8+4.2		+0.6-0.2-0.4
Toronto FC vs Portland	+0.8+0.2-0.9
New England vs Vancouver	+0.6+0.1-0.7		+0.2-0.0-0.2
Seattle vs Sporting KC	-0.5+0.1+0.4
DC United vs Real Salt Lake	+0.3+0.2-0.4		+1.9-0.6-1.5		+0.1+0.0-0.1
Houston vs San Jose	+0.1+0.4-0.3
Atlanta vs Minnesota	+0.1+0.1-0.2		-0.8-0.2+1.0		+0.1+0.0-0.1
FC Dallas vs Colorado	-0.1+0.2-0.0		-0.6-0.1+0.7		+0.1+0.0-0.1
Montreal vs Chicago			+0.1*-0.0-0.1
NY Red Bulls vs Orlando			-0.1*-0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Los Angeles finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Supporters		Chance will finish regular season at seed											Wooden
TP		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		Shield		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	Spoon		Count

59		12	-	0	-	0	In		37.0	%	95	5	0									No		39,025
57		11	-	1	-	0	In		12.8		83	16	1									No		15,179
56		11	-	0	-	1	In		5.4		72	25	3	0								No		19,983
55		10	-	2	-	0	In		1.8		61	34	5	0								No		64,299
54		10	-	1	-	1	In		0.4		44	43	12	1	0	0						No		169,409
53		9	-	3	-	0	In		0.0		28	45	22	4	0	0						No		273,157	*
52		9	-	2	-	1	100.0	%	0.0		16	40	32	10	1	0	0					No		641,181
51		9	-	1	-	2	100.0		0.0		7	29	38	21	5	0	0	0				No		1,124,694	*
50		8	-	3	-	1	99.8		No		2	16	35	32	13	2	0	0				No		1,836,073	*
49		8	-	2	-	2	99.0		No		1	6	24	36	25	8	1	0	0			No		3,227,814	*
48		8	-	1	-	3	95.6		No		0	2	11	30	35	18	4	0	0			No		4,760,973	*
47		7	-	3	-	2	86.3		No		0	0	4	17	34	31	12	2	0	0		No		6,996,447	*
46		7	-	2	-	3	68.6		No		0	0	1	7	24	38	25	6	0	0		No		10,081,125	*
45		6	-	4	-	2	44.7		No		0	0	0	2	11	32	37	16	2	0	0	No		7,802,257
		7	-	1	-	4	44.6		No		0	0	0	2	11	32	38	16	2	0	0	No		5,269,391	*
44		6	-	3	-	3	23.5		No			0	0	0	4	20	40	30	6	0	0	No		13,676,833
		5	-	6	-	1	21.2		No			0	0	0	3	18	40	32	6	0	0	No		3,137,555	*
43		6	-	2	-	4	9.4		No				0	0	1	9	33	43	14	1	0	No		13,488,826
		5	-	5	-	2	8.2		No				0	0	1	8	31	44	15	1	0	No		7,213,691	*
42		5	-	4	-	3	2.5		No					0	0	2	19	46	28	5	0	0.0	%	15,601,815
		6	-	1	-	5	2.6		No					0	0	2	19	47	27	4	0	0.0		8,071,591	*
41		5	-	3	-	4	0.6		No					0	0	1	9	40	39	11	1	0.0		20,517,616
		4	-	6	-	2	0.4		No						0	0	8	39	40	12	1	0.0		6,093,818	*
40		5	-	2	-	5	0.1		No						0	0	3	28	45	20	3	0.0		16,189,845
		4	-	5	-	3	0.1		No						0	0	3	26	46	22	3	0.1		12,235,733	*
39		4	-	4	-	4	0.0		No						0	0	1	15	43	33	7	0.3		19,499,504
		5	-	1	-	6	0.0		No							0	1	16	44	32	7	0.3		9,069,551	*
38		4	-	3	-	5	0.0		No							0	0	8	36	42	14	1.2		20,512,091
		3	-	6	-	3	0.0		No						0	0	0	7	35	43	15	1.5		7,440,304	*
37		4	-	2	-	6	0.0		No							0	0	4	26	46	24	3.6		13,490,505
		3	-	5	-	4	0.0		No							0	0	3	24	47	26	4.6		12,427,962	*
36		3	-	4	-	5	Out		No								0	1	15	46	38	10.1		15,606,669
		4	-	1	-	7	Out		No								0	1	16	46	36	8.9		7,042,700	*
35		3	-	3	-	6	Out		No								0	0	9	40	50	18.2		13,674,778
		2	-	6	-	4	Out		No								0	0	8	40	52	19.7		5,437,269	*
34		3	-	2	-	7	Out		No								0	0	5	33	63	28.6		7,704,021
		2	-	5	-	5	Out		No									0	4	31	66	32.4		7,492,561	*
33		2	-	4	-	6	Out		No									0	2	22	76	45.1		7,799,864
		3	-	1	-	8	Out		No									0	2	23	75	42.1		3,521,408	*
32		2	-	3	-	7	Out		No									0	1	15	85	57.4		8,068,171	*
31		2	-	2	-	8	Out		No									0	0	9	91	67.6		2,891,451
		1	-	5	-	6	Out		No									0	0	8	92	71.3		2,465,457	*
30		1	-	4	-	7	Out		No									0	0	5	95	79.2		3,268,517	*
29		1	-	3	-	8	Out		No										0	2	98	86.4		1,879,059	*
28		1	-	2	-	9	Out		No										0	1	99	91.6		981,122	*
27		0	-	4	-	8	Out		No										0	0	100	95.1		447,129	*
26		0	-	3	-	9	Out		No											0	100	97.3		182,543	*
25		0	-	2	-	10	Out		No											0	100	98.4		64,254
24		0	-	1	-	11	Out		No											0	100	99.2		15,229
23		0	-	0	-	12	Out		No												100	99.7		39,035

Total:							11.3	%	0.0	%	0	0	1	2	3	5	9	16	21	21	21	9.4	%	329,569,484

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 8/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
Portland 3 Los Angeles 1	+1.1
San Jose 2 Columbus 1	+0.1
Chicago 4 New England 1	-0.1
Real Salt Lake 0 Houston 0	-0.0
Colorado 2 Vancouver 2	-0.0
DC United 1 Toronto FC 1	-0.0
Minnesota 0 Seattle 4	+0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 8/12	100.0*	Lottery seed
Los Angeles vs NYCFC	-1.2+0.4+0.9
Atlanta vs Minnesota	-0.1-0.0+0.1
FC Dallas vs Colorado	-0.1-0.0+0.1
Toronto FC vs Portland	-0.1-0.0+0.1
DC United vs Real Salt Lake	-0.0-0.1+0.1
Montreal vs Chicago	+0.1-0.0-0.1

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22

59		12	-	0	-	0	37	58	5	1	0
57		11	-	1	-	0	13	71	10	6	1	0
56		11	-	0	-	1	5	66	11	14	2	0	0
55		10	-	2	-	0	2	59	9	25	4	1	0	0
54		10	-	1	-	1	0	43	6	37	7	5	1	0	0		0
53		9	-	3	-	0	0	28	2	43	8	14	3	1	0	0	0
52		9	-	2	-	1	0	16	1	40	6	26	7	4	1	0	0		0
51		9	-	1	-	2	0	7	0	28	3	36	9	12	4	1	0	0	0	0
50		8	-	3	-	1		2	0	16	1	34	7	25	8	4	2	0	0	0
49		8	-	2	-	2		1	0	6	0	24	3	34	10	14	6	1	1	0	0
48		8	-	1	-	3		0		2	0	11	1	29	7	28	12	6	4	1	0	0	0
47		7	-	3	-	2		0		0	0	4	0	17	2	32	12	19	10	3	1	0	0	0
46		7	-	2	-	3		0		0		1	0	7	0	23	7	30	15	11	4	1	0	0	0
45		6	-	4	-	2		0		0		0	0	2	0	11	2	30	13	20	15	6	1	0	0
		7	-	1	-	4		0		0		0	0	2	0	11	2	29	15	21	14	5	1	0	0	0
44		6	-	3	-	3				0		0		0	0	4	0	19	7	20	26	17	6	1	0	0
		5	-	6	-	1				0		0		0	0	3	0	18	6	19	26	19	7	1	0	0
43		6	-	2	-	4						0		0	0	1	0	8	2	12	26	29	17	5	1	0	0
		5	-	5	-	2						0		0		1	0	7	2	9	23	30	20	7	1	0	0
42		5	-	4	-	3								0		0	0	2	0	3	13	28	31	17	5	1	0	0
		6	-	1	-	5								0		0	0	2	0	4	15	29	30	16	4	0	0	0
41		5	-	3	-	4								0		0	0	1	0	1	5	17	32	29	13	3	0	0
		4	-	6	-	2										0	0	0	0	0	4	15	30	31	15	3	0	0
40		5	-	2	-	5										0		0	0	0	1	7	22	34	25	8	1	0
		4	-	5	-	3										0		0	0	0	1	5	19	34	29	11	2	0
39		4	-	4	-	4										0		0	0	0	0	1	9	26	36	21	5	0
		5	-	1	-	6												0	0	0	0	2	10	28	35	20	4	0
38		4	-	3	-	5												0		0	0	0	3	16	35	32	12	1
		3	-	6	-	3										0		0		0	0	0	3	14	34	34	14	1
37		4	-	2	-	6												0			0	0	1	7	26	39	23	4
		3	-	5	-	4												0			0	0	1	6	24	40	26	5
36		3	-	4	-	5															0	0	0	2	14	37	37	10
		4	-	1	-	7																0	0	3	16	38	34	8
35		3	-	3	-	6																0	0	1	7	29	45	18
		2	-	6	-	4																0	0	0	6	28	46	20
34		3	-	2	-	7																	0	0	3	20	48	29
		2	-	5	-	5																0	0	0	2	17	48	32
33		2	-	4	-	6																	0	0	1	10	44	45
		3	-	1	-	8																	0	0	1	11	46	42
32		2	-	3	-	7																		0	0	5	37	57
31		2	-	2	-	8																		0	0	2	30	68
		1	-	5	-	6																			0	2	27	71
30		1	-	4	-	7																			0	1	20	79
29		1	-	3	-	8																			0	0	13	86
28		1	-	2	-	9																				0	8	92
27		0	-	4	-	8																				0	5	95
26		0	-	3	-	9																				0	3	97
25		0	-	2	-	10																					2	98
24		0	-	1	-	11																					1	99
23		0	-	0	-	12																					0	100

Total:							0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	3	1	4	2	3	5	7	9	11	13	14	14	9