Sporting Kansas City Playoff Chances

Tied Atlanta 1-1, playoff odds down 0.5 to 98.6%
37 points   9-10-4

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 8/5100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Sporting KC 1 Atlanta 1 -0.3
-1.8
*No
-0.2
San Jose 2 Columbus 1 -0.2
Portland 3 Los Angeles 1 -0.1
Minnesota 0 Seattle 4 -0.1
-0.1
Real Salt Lake 0 Houston 0 +0.0
Colorado 2 Vancouver 2 +0.0
DC United 1 Toronto FC 1 +0.8
Chicago 4 New England 1 -0.5
Philadelphia 3 FC Dallas 1 +0.1
+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 8/12100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Seattle vs Sporting KC-0.9+0.2+1.1
-1.3-0.6+2.3
+0.0-0.0No
-0.4+0.0+0.6
Houston vs San Jose+0.1-0.0-0.4
-0.0+0.1+0.0
Toronto FC vs Portland+0.1-0.0-0.3
-0.5+0.5+0.9
+0.0-0.0-0.1
New England vs Vancouver+0.1-0.0-0.2
+0.0+0.0-0.1
DC United vs Real Salt Lake+0.1+0.0-0.1
Los Angeles vs NYCFC-0.1+0.0+0.1
+0.1+0.0-0.2
FC Dallas vs Colorado-0.0+0.0+0.1
-0.1+0.1+0.1
Montreal vs Chicago+0.5+0.2-0.6
Columbus vs Chicago+0.5+0.2-0.6

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Sporting KC finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield1234567891011SpoonCount
7011-0-0In94.6%1000No329,307
6810-1-0In83.81000No1,109,890
6710-0-1In76.51000No1,246,732
669-2-0In64.21000No3,653,656
659-1-1In53.710000No8,099,701
648-3-0In39.99910No11,561,664*
638-2-1In27.89820No23,511,990
628-1-2In18.097300No25,403,370
7-4-0In16.39730No9,247,260
617-3-1In9.195500No40,129,032
8-0-3In10.494600No8,991,023
607-2-2In4.4901000No64,292,415
6-5-0In4.091900No8,314,623
597-1-3In1.78217100No45,010,768
6-4-1In1.5841500No44,627,986
586-3-2In0.57425200No94,216,568
7-0-4In0.57424200No16,902,323*
576-2-3In0.160355000No97,784,142
5-5-1In0.164333000No33,761,062
565-4-2In0.047439100No88,123,002
6-1-4In0.0454311100No52,244,969*
555-3-3In0.0314819200No120,585,741
4-6-1100.0%0.03548162000No17,605,406
6-0-5In0.0304720300No9,977,586
545-2-4100.00.01744318100No91,141,650
4-5-2100.00.01946296000No55,315,534*
534-4-3100.00.09353915200No92,276,479
5-1-5100.0No8343916300No42,312,457*
524-3-4100.0No3214028810No91,959,161
3-6-2100.0No4234126600No28,356,837*
514-2-599.9No19313818300No53,989,313
3-5-399.9No111333716200No46,353,235*
503-4-499.6No04203930800No55,328,439
4-1-699.6No04203929800No23,150,407*
493-3-598.3No01930401820No42,823,037
2-6-398.5No011032391710No16,088,669*
483-2-694.4No003184132600No20,337,809
2-5-494.9No003194231500No20,735,293*
472-4-586.8No001834441300No19,000,786
3-1-787.1No001934431200No7,747,085*
462-3-673.7No0003214925200No16,521,955*
452-2-756.7No001114538500No9,346,210*
441-4-638.6No00434491210No4,861,975*
431-3-722.5No01215322200No2,353,919*
421-2-811.2No00114834600No1,010,772*
410-4-74.7No0536441410No378,693*
400-3-81.5No0123482630No125,398*
390-2-90.3No011423970No33,563
380-1-10OutNo430481610.0%5,740
370-0-110.0No0116512940.1177,756
Total:98.6%2.3%3724161174100000.0%1,568,462,388

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 8/5100.0*Lottery seed
Sporting KC 1 Atlanta 1 +0.4
Philadelphia 3 FC Dallas 1 -0.1
Minnesota 0 Seattle 4 +0.1
Portland 3 Los Angeles 1 +0.0
Real Salt Lake 0 Houston 0 -0.0
Colorado 2 Vancouver 2 -0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 8/12100.0*Lottery seed
Seattle vs Sporting KC+0.8-0.0-1.1
FC Dallas vs Colorado+0.1-0.1-0.2
New England vs Vancouver-0.1-0.0+0.2
Toronto FC vs Portland-0.1+0.0+0.2
Houston vs San Jose+0.1-0.1-0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L12345678910111213141516171819202122
7011-0-09550
6810-1-0841600
6710-0-1762300
669-2-0643600
659-1-15446000
648-3-04059100
638-2-128711000
628-1-2187921000
7-4-016812100
617-3-198533000
8-0-3108433000
607-2-248546000
6-5-048735000
597-1-328141300000
6-4-12834120000
586-3-207332111000
7-0-417432111000
576-2-30602332300000
5-5-1064231220000
565-4-20471422700000
6-1-40451433810000
555-3-303104731611000
4-6-1035047213110000
6-0-503004731721000
545-2-40170442293510000
4-5-20190462273300000
534-4-30903513841220000
5-1-5803413841321000
524-3-43021040325531000
3-6-2402404132242000
514-2-510903123671130000
3-5-310110332357920000
503-4-404020138722610000
4-1-60402013872261000
493-3-501090305361262000
2-6-3010100325341151000
483-2-60030182401418510000
2-5-4003019240141741000
472-4-500108033113393100
3-1-700109034113293100
462-3-6000302164313941000
452-2-70010112431217113000
441-4-6000403471922112000
431-3-70102131427239100
421-2-80001116223221610
410-4-7050211293317300
400-3-8010041735311110
390-2-9001724392440
380-1-100021135391210
370-0-11000321462640
Total:2351231151925221000000000