SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Toronto FC Playoff Chances 2020 50/50

Plays Nashville, Beat New York City 1-0, playoff odds up 9.9 to 62.8%

4 points 1-1-0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 3/8	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Supporters Shield	100.0*	Wooden Spoon	100.0*	Average seed
Toronto 1 New York City 0	+8.7		+1.5		-1.8		+0.8
Colorado 2 Orlando 1	+0.5						+0.0
New England 1 Chicago 1	+0.3
Los Angeles FC 3 Philadelphia 3	+0.2						*+0.0
Seattle 1 Columbus 1	*+0.2		+0.1				+0.0
Salt Lake 1 New York RB 1	*+0.1		+0.1				+0.0
DC United 2 Miami 1	*-0.1
Dallas 2 Montreal 2	*+0.1		+0.1				*+0.0
Atlanta 2 Cincinnati 1	*-0.1
San Jose 2 Minnesota 5					*-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Toronto vs Nashville	+7.9-2.0-6.3		+2.1-0.7-1.6		-1.1+0.1+1.0		+0.7-0.2-0.6
Minnesota vs New York RB	+0.6*+0.1-0.7						+0.1*+0.0-0.1
New York City vs Dallas	-0.7*+0.2+0.6						-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Philadelphia vs San Jose	-0.6*+0.1+0.5						-0.1*+0.0+0.0
Atlanta vs Kansas City	-0.7+0.2+0.5						-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Miami vs LA Galaxy	-0.6*+0.2+0.5						-0.1+0.0+0.0
Columbus vs Salt Lake	-0.6*+0.2+0.5						-0.1+0.0+0.0
Orlando vs Chicago	-0.2+0.5*-0.2
Vancouver vs Colorado			*+0.1+0.1-0.1

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/15	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Supporters Shield	100.0*	Wooden Spoon	100.0*	Average seed
Cincinnati vs Toronto	-7.1-1.6+8.3		-1.6-0.7+2.1		+1.0+0.1-1.1		-0.6-0.2+0.8
Salt Lake vs New England	+0.6*+0.1-0.7						+0.1*+0.0-0.1
New York City vs Vancouver	-0.7+0.2+0.5						-0.1*+0.0+0.0
Nashville vs Columbus	+0.5*+0.2-0.6						+0.0+0.0-0.1
New England vs Portland	-0.6*+0.2+0.5						-0.1*+0.0+0.0
Minnesota vs Montreal	+0.4*+0.2-0.5		-0.1+0.1*+0.0				+0.0+0.0-0.1
Chicago vs Atlanta	-0.2+0.4*-0.1		+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Colorado vs Houston			-0.2+0.1*+0.1
San Jose vs Kansas City			*+0.0+0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Supporters		Chance will finish regular season at seed													Wooden
TP		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		Shield		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	Spoon		Count

72	-100						In		99.4	%	100													No		895	*
71		20	-	7	-	5	In		99.0		99	1												No		480	*
70		20	-	6	-	6	In		98.6		100	0												No		726	*
69		19	-	8	-	5	In		97.5		99	1												No		1,070	*
68		19	-	7	-	6	In		95.8		99	1												No		1,555	*
67		19	-	6	-	7	In		93.5		98	2												No		2,219	*
66		18	-	8	-	6	In		89.3		97	3	0											No		3,164	*
65		18	-	7	-	7	In		85.6		95	5	0											No		4,454	*
64		18	-	6	-	8	In		79.5		92	7	0											No		5,937	*
63		17	-	8	-	7	In		71.5		89	10	0											No		7,906	*
62		17	-	7	-	8	In		63.0		86	13	1	0										No		10,280	*
61		16	-	9	-	7	In		50.8		79	19	2	0										No		13,411	*
60		16	-	8	-	8	In		40.0		72	25	3	0										No		16,877	*
59		16	-	7	-	9	In		28.3		63	31	5	0	0									No		20,756	*
58		15	-	9	-	8	In		18.5		54	37	8	1	0									No		25,370	*
57		15	-	8	-	9	In		10.2		44	41	13	2	0									No		30,349	*
56		15	-	7	-	10	In		4.7		33	43	20	4	0	0								No		35,790	*
55		14	-	9	-	9	In		1.7		22	42	27	8	1	0	0							No		41,170	*
54		14	-	8	-	10	100.0	%	0.5		14	36	33	14	3	0	0	0						No		46,444	*
53		14	-	7	-	11	100.0		0.1		8	28	35	21	6	1	0	0						No		52,244	*
52		13	-	9	-	10	100.0		0.0		4	19	33	28	12	3	0	0						No		56,986	*
51		13	-	8	-	11	99.9		0.0		2	11	27	32	20	7	1	0	0					No		61,408	*
50		12	-	10	-	10	99.4		No		1	5	18	31	27	13	4	1	0					No		64,531	*
49		12	-	9	-	11	97.8		No		0	2	10	24	31	21	9	2	0	0	0			No		67,533	*
48		12	-	8	-	12	93.5		No		0	1	4	15	28	29	17	5	1	0				No		68,619	*
47		11	-	10	-	11	84.1		No		0	0	1	8	20	30	25	12	3	1	0	0		No		69,024	*
46		11	-	9	-	12	68.9		No			0	0	3	11	25	30	21	8	2	0	0		No		67,779	*
45		11	-	8	-	13	49.1		No			0	0	1	5	16	28	28	16	5	1	0	0	No		65,223	*
44		10	-	10	-	12	29.9		No				0	0	2	8	20	30	25	12	3	0	0	No		62,003	*
43		10	-	9	-	13	15.0		No					0	0	3	12	25	30	21	7	1	0	No		57,901	*
42		10	-	8	-	14	5.9		No					0	0	1	5	16	30	29	15	4	0	No		52,713	*
41		9	-	10	-	13	1.9		No						0	0	2	9	23	33	24	8	1	No		47,220	*
40		9	-	9	-	14	0.5		No						0	0	1	4	15	30	32	16	3	0.0	%	41,383	*
39		9	-	8	-	15	0.1		No							0	0	1	8	23	36	25	6	0.3		36,107	*
38		8	-	10	-	14	0.0		No								0	0	4	15	34	35	12	1.2		30,233	*
37		8	-	9	-	15	0.0		No								0	0	2	9	28	41	20	4.0		25,018	*
36		8	-	8	-	16	Out		No									0	0	5	21	43	31	9.2		20,268	*
35		7	-	10	-	15	Out		No										0	2	14	41	43	18.1		16,125	*
34		7	-	9	-	16	Out		No										0	1	8	37	54	28.7		12,631	*
33		7	-	8	-	17	Out		No											0	5	31	63	39.7		9,662	*
32		6	-	10	-	16	Out		No											0	3	26	71	52.9		6,932	*
31		6	-	9	-	17	Out		No											0	1	18	80	64.3		5,084	*
30		6	-	8	-	18	Out		No												1	13	86	74.1		3,676	*
29		5	-	10	-	17	Out		No												0	8	92	83.9		2,537	*
28		5	-	9	-	18	Out		No												0	7	93	86.3		1,704	*
27		5	-	8	-	19	Out		No													3	97	92.6		1,098	*
26		4	-	10	-	18	Out		No													2	98	95.4		678	*
25		4	-	9	-	19	Out		No													1	99	98.0		440	*
24		4	-	8	-	20	Out		No													1	99	98.6		278	*
23		3	-	10	-	19	Out		No													1	99	98.7		150	*
4	-22						Out		No														100	Yes		303	*

Total:							62.8	%	4.7	%	10	10	9	9	8	8	8	7	7	7	6	5	5	2.3	%	1,276,344

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 3/8	100.0*	Lottery seed
Toronto 1 New York City 0	-1.6
Colorado 2 Orlando 1	-0.0
Seattle 1 Columbus 1	-0.0
Salt Lake 1 New York RB 1	-0.0
Los Angeles FC 3 Philadelphia 3	*-0.0
DC United 2 Miami 1	*+0.0
Dallas 2 Montreal 2	-0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Toronto vs Nashville	-1.5+0.4+1.2
Atlanta vs Kansas City	+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Minnesota vs New York RB	-0.1*-0.0+0.1
New York City vs Dallas	+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Columbus vs Salt Lake	+0.1*-0.0-0.0
Philadelphia vs San Jose	+0.1*-0.0-0.0
Miami vs LA Galaxy	+0.1*-0.0-0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/15	100.0*	Lottery seed
Cincinnati vs Toronto	+1.3+0.3-1.6
New York City vs Vancouver	+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Nashville vs Columbus	-0.0-0.0+0.1
Salt Lake vs New England	-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Minnesota vs Montreal	-0.0-0.0+0.1
New England vs Portland	+0.1*-0.0-0.0
Miami vs New York RB	+0.0-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26

76	-100						100
75		22	-	5	-	5	98	2
74		21	-	7	-	4	100
73		21	-	6	-	5	99	1
72		21	-	5	-	6	99	1
71		20	-	7	-	5	99	0	1
70		20	-	6	-	6	99	1	0
69		19	-	8	-	5	97	2	1
68		19	-	7	-	6	96	3	1
67		19	-	6	-	7	94	5	2
66		18	-	8	-	6	89	7	3		0
65		18	-	7	-	7	86	9	5	0	0
64		18	-	6	-	8	79	13	7	0	0
63		17	-	8	-	7	71	18	10	0	0
62		17	-	7	-	8	63	23	13	0	1		0
61		16	-	9	-	7	51	28	19	1	2	0	0
60		16	-	8	-	8	40	32	23	2	3		0
59		16	-	7	-	9	28	35	28	4	5	0	0		0
58		15	-	9	-	8	19	35	30	7	8	0	1		0
57		15	-	8	-	9	10	34	28	13	13	1	2	0	0
56		15	-	7	-	10	5	28	24	19	18	2	4	0	0		0
55		14	-	9	-	9	2	21	17	25	21	6	8	0	1		0		0
54		14	-	8	-	10	0	14	9	27	21	12	13	1	3	0	0		0		0
53		14	-	7	-	11	0	8	3	25	16	19	18	4	6	0	1		0		0
52		13	-	9	-	10	0	4	1	18	9	24	19	10	11	1	3	0	0		0
51		13	-	8	-	11	0	2	0	11	4	24	14	18	16	4	6	0	1	0	0	0
50		12	-	10	-	10		1	0	5	1	18	7	24	16	11	12	1	4	0	1	0
49		12	-	9	-	11		0		2	0	10	2	22	11	20	16	6	8	0	2	0	0	0
48		12	-	8	-	12		0		1	0	4	0	15	4	24	14	15	14	3	5	1	0	0
47		11	-	10	-	11		0		0	0	1	0	8	1	19	7	22	16	9	11	4	1	0	0
46		11	-	9	-	12				0		0		3	0	11	2	22	10	19	15	11	4	1	0	0	0
45		11	-	8	-	13				0		0		1	0	5	0	15	4	24	13	17	13	6	2	0	0
44		10	-	10	-	12						0		0		2	0	8	1	19	7	16	20	16	8	2	1	0	0
43		10	-	9	-	13								0		0		3	0	12	2	9	18	23	19	10	3	1	0	0
42		10	-	8	-	14								0		0		1	0	5	0	3	9	19	25	21	12	4	1	0	0
41		9	-	10	-	13										0		0		2	0	0	3	9	19	26	22	12	4	1	0
40		9	-	9	-	14										0		0		1	0	0	1	3	9	20	26	23	13	4	1	0
39		9	-	8	-	15												0		0		0	0	1	3	10	20	28	22	12	3	0
38		8	-	10	-	14														0			0	0	1	4	12	23	30	21	8	1
37		8	-	9	-	15														0				0	0	1	5	14	28	31	17	4
36		8	-	8	-	16																			0	0	2	7	21	33	28	9
35		7	-	10	-	15																		0		0	0	3	13	29	37	18
34		7	-	9	-	16																				0	0	1	6	22	41	29
33		7	-	8	-	17																					0	0	3	16	41	40
32		6	-	10	-	16																						0	1	9	37	53
31		6	-	9	-	17																							1	4	31	64
30		6	-	8	-	18																							0	3	23	74
29		5	-	10	-	17																							0	1	15	84
28		5	-	9	-	18																							0	1	13	86
27		5	-	8	-	19																								0	7	93
26		4	-	10	-	18																								0	4	95
25		4	-	9	-	19																								0	2	98
24		4	-	8	-	20																									1	99
23		3	-	10	-	19																									1	99
4	-22																															100

Total:							5	6	4	6	4	5	4	5	3	5	3	5	3	5	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2