How are these numbers calculated?

## Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Week of 3/2 100.0* Chance in playoffs 100.0* Supporters Shield 100.0* Wooden Spoon 100.0* Average seed Toronto vs Columbus +6.7-4.4-10.0 +1.4-1.1-1.9 -1.5+0.9+2.4 +0.5-0.3-0.8 Vancouver vs Montreal +0.4*-0.0-1.0 -0.0+0.1-0.0 +0.0+0.0-0.1 Kansas City vs New York City +0.4*-0.0-1.0 -0.0+0.1-0.0 +0.0+0.0-0.1 Houston vs Atlanta +0.4*-0.0-1.0 -0.0+0.1-0.0 +0.0+0.0-0.1 Philadelphia vs New England -0.2+0.4-0.1 -0.0+0.1-0.0 Orlando vs DC -0.2+0.4-0.1 -0.0+0.1-0.0 Dallas vs Salt Lake -0.0+0.1-0.0 LA Galaxy vs Portland -0.0+0.1-0.0 San Jose vs Minnesota -0.0+0.1-0.0 Seattle vs Los Angeles FC -0.0+0.1-0.0 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Week of 3/9 100.0* Chance in playoffs 100.0* Supporters Shield 100.0* Wooden Spoon 100.0* Average seed Chicago vs Kansas City -0.6+0.4+0.9 -0.0+0.1-0.1 -0.0+0.0+0.1 New England vs Colorado -0.6+0.4+0.9 -0.0+0.1-0.1 -0.0+0.0+0.1 New York vs Portland -0.6+0.4+0.9 -0.0+0.1-0.1 -0.0+0.0+0.1 Orlando vs Minnesota -0.6+0.4+0.9 -0.0+0.1-0.1 -0.0+0.0+0.1 New York City vs LA Galaxy -0.6+0.4+0.9 -0.0+0.1-0.1 -0.0+0.0+0.1 Atlanta vs DC -0.2+0.4-0.1 -0.0+0.1-0.0 Columbus vs Montreal -0.2+0.4-0.1 -0.0+0.1-0.0 Salt Lake vs Los Angeles FC -0.0+0.1-0.0 Houston vs Vancouver -0.0+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

## What If

Chances based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season.   Explain

 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 If finish: Chance in Supporters Chance will finish regular season at seed Wooden TP W - D - L playoffs Shield 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Spoon Count 80 -102 In Yes 100 No 160,212 * 79 25 - 4 - 5 In 99.9 % 100 0 No 2,361 * 78 24 - 6 - 4 In 100.0 100 No 4,682 * 77 24 - 5 - 5 In 99.9 100 0 No 8,788 * 76 23 - 7 - 4 In 99.9 100 0 No 15,936 * 75 23 - 6 - 5 In 99.9 100 0 No 28,274 * 74 23 - 5 - 6 In 99.8 100 0 No 49,644 * 73 22 - 7 - 5 In 99.8 100 0 No 83,077 * 72 22 - 6 - 6 In 99.7 100 0 No 139,639 * 71 21 - 8 - 5 In 99.6 100 0 No 227,853 * 70 21 - 7 - 6 In 99.2 100 0 0 No 362,870 * 69 21 - 6 - 7 In 98.8 100 0 0 No 568,354 * 68 20 - 8 - 6 In 98.0 99 1 0 No 872,396 * 67 20 - 7 - 7 In 96.9 99 1 0 No 1,309,206 * 66 20 - 6 - 8 In 95.0 98 2 0 No 1,933,388 * 65 19 - 8 - 7 In 92.4 97 3 0 0 No 2,789,294 * 64 19 - 7 - 8 In 88.7 95 5 0 0 No 3,953,153 * 63 18 - 9 - 7 In 83.4 93 7 0 0 No 5,496,911 * 62 18 - 8 - 8 In 76.4 90 10 0 0 No 7,491,525 * 61 18 - 7 - 9 In 67.5 85 14 1 0 0 No 10,016,461 * 60 17 - 9 - 8 In 56.8 80 19 1 0 0 0 No 13,142,024 * 59 17 - 8 - 9 In 44.8 72 25 3 0 0 0 No 16,928,076 * 58 17 - 7 - 10 In 32.4 63 31 5 0 0 0 No 21,385,788 * 57 16 - 9 - 9 100.0 % 21.0 53 37 9 1 0 0 0 No 26,520,470 * 56 16 - 8 - 10 100.0 11.8 42 42 14 2 0 0 0 No 32,257,937 * 55 15 - 10 - 9 100.0 5.4 31 43 21 4 0 0 0 No 38,519,794 * 54 15 - 9 - 10 100.0 2.0 21 41 28 8 1 0 0 0 No 45,147,866 * 53 15 - 8 - 11 100.0 0.5 13 35 34 15 3 0 0 0 0 No 51,923,566 * 52 14 - 10 - 10 99.9 0.1 7 27 36 22 7 1 0 0 0 No 58,590,084 * 51 14 - 9 - 11 99.6 0.0 3 18 33 29 13 3 0 0 0 0 No 64,887,686 * 50 14 - 8 - 12 98.5 0.0 1 10 26 33 21 7 1 0 0 0 No 70,527,257 * 49 13 - 10 - 11 95.6 0.0 0 5 17 31 28 14 4 1 0 0 0 No 75,196,535 * 48 13 - 9 - 12 89.1 0.0 0 2 9 24 31 23 9 2 0 0 0 No 78,658,232 * 47 13 - 8 - 13 77.5 No 0 1 4 15 28 29 17 5 1 0 0 No 80,734,471 * 46 12 - 10 - 12 60.9 No 0 0 1 8 21 31 25 11 3 0 0 No 81,298,383 * 45 12 - 9 - 13 42.1 No 0 0 0 3 12 26 31 20 6 1 0 No 80,308,336 * 44 12 - 8 - 14 25.0 No 0 0 0 1 6 18 31 28 13 3 0 No 77,767,337 * 43 11 - 10 - 13 12.6 No 0 0 0 0 2 10 25 33 22 7 1 0.0 % 73,846,015 * 42 11 - 9 - 14 5.3 No 0 0 0 1 5 17 31 31 14 2 0.0 68,740,648 * 41 10 - 11 - 13 1.9 No 0 0 0 2 9 25 35 23 5 0.0 62,733,117 * 40 10 - 10 - 14 0.6 No 0 0 0 1 4 17 35 32 10 0.3 56,116,112 * 39 10 - 9 - 15 0.1 No 0 0 0 2 10 30 40 18 1.2 49,158,262 * 38 9 - 11 - 14 0.0 No 0 0 0 1 5 23 43 28 3.9 42,181,162 * 37 9 - 10 - 15 0.0 No 0 0 0 2 16 43 39 9.5 35,459,668 * 36 9 - 9 - 16 0.0 No 0 0 0 1 10 39 51 18.5 29,170,954 * 35 8 - 11 - 15 0.0 No 0 0 0 5 33 62 30.2 23,492,311 * 34 8 - 10 - 16 0.0 No 0 0 0 3 26 71 43.3 18,502,383 * 33 8 - 9 - 17 Out No 0 0 1 19 79 56.2 14,248,752 * 32 7 - 11 - 16 Out No 0 0 1 14 86 67.7 10,729,979 * 31 7 - 10 - 17 Out No 0 0 10 90 77.2 7,891,855 * 30 7 - 9 - 18 Out No 0 0 6 94 84.5 5,670,087 * 29 6 - 11 - 17 Out No 0 0 4 96 89.8 3,975,695 * 28 6 - 10 - 18 Out No 0 0 2 98 93.5 2,716,233 * 27 6 - 9 - 19 Out No 0 1 99 96.0 1,810,861 * 26 5 - 11 - 18 Out No 0 1 99 97.6 1,178,521 * 25 5 - 10 - 19 Out No 0 1 99 98.6 743,651 * 24 5 - 9 - 20 Out No 0 100 99.2 457,968 * 23 4 - 11 - 19 Out No 0 100 99.5 272,718 * 22 4 - 10 - 20 Out No 0 100 99.7 157,702 * 21 4 - 9 - 21 Out No 0 100 99.8 88,958 * 20 4 - 8 - 22 Out No 0 100 99.9 48,265 * 19 3 - 10 - 21 Out No 0 100 99.9 25,168 * 0 -18 Out No 100 100.0 182,325 * Total: 54.5 % 4.3 % 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 4.3 % 1,458,907,236

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

## Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

## Big Games

 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Week of 3/2 100.0* Lottery seed Toronto vs Columbus -1.1+0.7+1.6 Kansas City vs New York City -0.0-0.0+0.1 Houston vs Atlanta -0.0-0.0+0.1 Vancouver vs Montreal -0.0-0.0+0.1 Philadelphia vs New England +0.0-0.1+0.0 Orlando vs DC +0.0-0.1+0.0 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Week of 3/9 100.0* Lottery seed New England vs Colorado +0.1-0.1-0.1 New York vs Portland +0.1-0.1-0.1 Orlando vs Minnesota +0.1-0.1-0.1 New York City vs LA Galaxy +0.1-0.1-0.1 Chicago vs Kansas City +0.1-0.1-0.1 Atlanta vs DC +0.0-0.1+0.0 Columbus vs Montreal +0.0-0.1+0.0

## What If

 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 If finish: Chance will finish season at seed TP W - D - L 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 80 -102 100 79 25 - 4 - 5 100 0 0 78 24 - 6 - 4 100 0 77 24 - 5 - 5 100 0 0 76 23 - 7 - 4 100 0 0 75 23 - 6 - 5 100 0 0 74 23 - 5 - 6 100 0 0 73 22 - 7 - 5 100 0 0 72 22 - 6 - 6 100 0 0 71 21 - 8 - 5 100 0 0 70 21 - 7 - 6 99 1 0 0 69 21 - 6 - 7 99 1 0 0 68 20 - 8 - 6 98 1 1 0 0 67 20 - 7 - 7 97 2 1 0 66 20 - 6 - 8 95 3 2 0 0 65 19 - 8 - 7 92 5 3 0 0 0 64 19 - 7 - 8 89 7 5 0 0 0 63 18 - 9 - 7 83 10 7 0 0 0 62 18 - 8 - 8 76 13 10 0 0 0 61 18 - 7 - 9 68 18 14 0 1 0 0 0 60 17 - 9 - 8 57 23 19 0 1 0 0 0 0 59 17 - 8 - 9 45 27 24 1 3 0 0 0 0 58 17 - 7 - 10 32 31 29 3 5 0 0 0 0 0 57 16 - 9 - 9 21 32 32 5 9 0 1 0 0 0 0 56 16 - 8 - 10 12 30 32 10 14 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 55 15 - 10 - 9 5 26 27 16 19 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 54 15 - 9 - 10 2 19 19 22 23 4 8 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 53 15 - 8 - 11 1 13 10 25 24 10 14 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 52 14 - 10 - 10 0 7 4 23 19 17 19 3 7 0 1 0 0 0 0 51 14 - 9 - 11 0 3 1 17 10 23 21 8 12 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 50 14 - 8 - 12 0 1 0 10 4 22 16 16 18 3 7 0 1 0 0 0 49 13 - 10 - 11 0 0 0 5 1 17 8 23 19 10 13 1 4 1 0 0 0 48 13 - 9 - 12 0 0 0 2 0 9 2 21 13 19 18 5 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 47 13 - 8 - 13 0 0 1 0 4 0 15 5 23 16 13 15 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 46 12 - 10 - 12 0 0 0 1 0 8 1 20 9 22 17 14 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 45 12 - 9 - 13 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 12 3 24 13 19 16 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 44 12 - 8 - 14 0 0 0 0 1 0 6 0 18 6 16 22 19 10 3 1 0 0 0 43 11 - 10 - 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 10 1 7 17 24 21 11 4 1 0 0 0 42 11 - 9 - 14 0 0 0 0 1 0 5 0 2 8 18 26 23 13 4 1 0 0 41 10 - 11 - 13 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 8 19 27 24 13 4 1 0 40 10 - 10 - 14 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 9 21 28 24 11 3 0 39 10 - 9 - 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 11 23 30 22 8 1 38 9 - 11 - 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 14 28 31 18 4 37 9 - 10 - 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 20 34 29 10 36 9 - 9 - 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 11 29 38 18 35 8 - 11 - 15 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 22 42 30 34 8 - 10 - 16 0 0 0 0 0 2 14 40 43 33 8 - 9 - 17 0 0 0 1 8 35 56 32 7 - 11 - 16 0 0 0 4 28 68 31 7 - 10 - 17 0 0 0 2 21 77 30 7 - 9 - 18 0 0 1 15 84 29 6 - 11 - 17 0 0 0 10 90 28 6 - 10 - 18 0 0 0 6 94 27 6 - 9 - 19 0 0 4 96 26 5 - 11 - 18 0 2 98 25 5 - 10 - 19 0 1 99 24 5 - 9 - 20 0 1 99 23 4 - 11 - 19 0 100 22 4 - 10 - 20 0 0 100 21 4 - 9 - 21 0 100 20 4 - 8 - 22 0 100 19 3 - 10 - 21 0 100 18 3 - 9 - 22 0 100 17 3 - 8 - 23 0 100 16 2 - 10 - 22 0 100 14 -15 100 13 2 - 7 - 25 0 100 0 -12 100 Total: 4 5 4 5 4 5 4 5 4 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4