Toronto FC Playoff Chances 2020
Plays Nashville, Beat New York City 1-0, playoff odds up 12.9 to 69.3%
4 points 1-1-0
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How are these numbers calculated?
Big Games
How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain
| Week of 3/8 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Supporters Shield | 100.0* | Wooden Spoon | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Toronto 1 New York City 0 | +6.5 | +1.1 | -1.2 | +0.6 | ||||
| Colorado 2 Orlando 1 | +0.4 | +0.0 | ||||||
| New England 1 Chicago 1 | +0.4 | |||||||
| DC United 2 Miami 1 | -0.1 | |||||||
| Atlanta 2 Cincinnati 1 | -0.1 | |||||||
| Seattle 1 Columbus 1 | *+0.1 | +0.1 | ||||||
| Los Angeles FC 3 Philadelphia 3 | *-0.1 | +0.1 | ||||||
| Salt Lake 1 New York RB 1 | *-0.1 | +0.1 | ||||||
| Dallas 2 Montreal 2 | +0.1 | |||||||
| San Jose 2 Minnesota 5 | -0.1 | -0.1 | ||||||
| Kansas City 4 Houston 0 | -0.1 | |||||||
| LA Galaxy 0 Vancouver 1 | +0.1 | |||||||
| If winner is:HomeDrawAway | ||||||||
| Toronto vs Nashville | +5.4-4.3-8.9 | +1.5-1.4-2.3 | -0.5+0.3+1.0 | +0.5-0.4-0.8 | ||||
| Philadelphia vs San Jose | -0.5+0.3+0.7 | -0.0+0.0+0.1 | ||||||
| Miami vs LA Galaxy | -0.5+0.3+0.7 | -0.0+0.0+0.1 | ||||||
| New York City vs Dallas | -0.6+0.3+0.6 | +0.1*+0.0-0.2 | ||||||
| Minnesota vs New York RB | +0.3*-0.0-0.8 | -0.2+0.2+0.1 | +0.0*-0.0-0.1 | |||||
| Columbus vs Salt Lake | -0.4+0.3+0.7 | -0.1+0.1*+0.0 | -0.0+0.0+0.1 | |||||
| Atlanta vs Kansas City | -0.3+0.1+0.6 | *+0.0+0.1-0.2 | -0.0+0.0+0.1 | |||||
| Cincinnati vs DC United | -0.2+0.4-0.1 | |||||||
| Orlando vs Chicago | -0.1+0.4-0.1 | |||||||
| Vancouver vs Colorado | +0.1+0.1-0.2 | |||||||
| Houston vs Seattle | +0.0*+0.0-0.1 | |||||||
| If winner is:HomeDrawAway | ||||||||
| Week of 3/15 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Supporters Shield | 100.0* | Wooden Spoon | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Cincinnati vs Toronto | -4.9+0.3+9.7 | -1.4-0.2+3.1 | +0.4-0.1-0.7 | -0.5+0.0+0.9 | ||||
| New England vs Portland | -0.5+0.4+0.7 | -0.0+0.0+0.1 | ||||||
| Minnesota vs Montreal | +0.3*+0.0-0.9 | -0.2+0.2+0.1 | +0.0*+0.0-0.1 | |||||
| Salt Lake vs New England | +0.3*-0.0-0.8 | +0.0*+0.0-0.1 | ||||||
| New York City vs Vancouver | -0.5+0.4+0.6 | -0.0+0.0+0.1 | ||||||
| Nashville vs Columbus | +0.3*+0.0-0.7 | +0.1*+0.0-0.2 | +0.0*-0.0-0.1 | +0.0*+0.0-0.1 | ||||
| Chicago vs Atlanta | -0.3+0.3+0.2 | +0.1*+0.0-0.2 | ||||||
| Miami vs New York RB | -0.2+0.3*-0.0 | |||||||
| San Jose vs Kansas City | +0.2+0.1-0.3 | +0.0*-0.0-0.1 | ||||||
| Colorado vs Houston | -0.1+0.1+0.2 | -0.0*-0.0+0.1 | ||||||
* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.
What If
Chances based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season. Explain
| 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||||||||||||||
| If finish: | Chance in | Supporters | Chance will finish regular season at seed | Wooden | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| TP | W | - | D | - | L | playoffs | Shield | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | Spoon | Count | |||||
| 72 | -100 | In | 99.8 | % | 100 | No | 2,619 | * | |||||||||||||||||||
| 71 | 20 | - | 7 | - | 5 | In | 98.5 | 100 | 0 | No | 1,432 | * | |||||||||||||||
| 70 | 20 | - | 6 | - | 6 | In | 98.2 | 100 | 0 | No | 2,350 | * | |||||||||||||||
| 69 | 19 | - | 8 | - | 5 | In | 97.0 | 99 | 1 | No | 3,494 | * | |||||||||||||||
| 68 | 19 | - | 7 | - | 6 | In | 94.5 | 99 | 1 | No | 5,248 | * | |||||||||||||||
| 67 | 19 | - | 6 | - | 7 | In | 92.5 | 98 | 2 | No | 7,643 | * | |||||||||||||||
| 66 | 18 | - | 8 | - | 6 | In | 89.0 | 97 | 3 | 0 | No | 10,838 | * | ||||||||||||||
| 65 | 18 | - | 7 | - | 7 | In | 84.7 | 95 | 5 | 0 | No | 15,251 | * | ||||||||||||||
| 64 | 18 | - | 6 | - | 8 | In | 78.1 | 93 | 7 | 0 | No | 20,848 | * | ||||||||||||||
| 63 | 17 | - | 8 | - | 7 | In | 70.0 | 89 | 10 | 0 | 0 | No | 28,455 | * | |||||||||||||
| 62 | 17 | - | 7 | - | 8 | In | 60.3 | 85 | 14 | 1 | 0 | No | 37,432 | * | |||||||||||||
| 61 | 16 | - | 9 | - | 7 | In | 49.9 | 80 | 19 | 1 | 0 | No | 48,358 | * | |||||||||||||
| 60 | 16 | - | 8 | - | 8 | In | 38.4 | 72 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 0 | No | 61,648 | * | ||||||||||||
| 59 | 16 | - | 7 | - | 9 | In | 27.0 | 64 | 31 | 5 | 0 | 0 | No | 76,205 | * | ||||||||||||
| 58 | 15 | - | 9 | - | 8 | In | 17.3 | 54 | 37 | 8 | 1 | 0 | No | 92,980 | * | ||||||||||||
| 57 | 15 | - | 8 | - | 9 | In | 9.4 | 43 | 42 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | No | 111,388 | * | |||||||||||
| 56 | 15 | - | 7 | - | 10 | In | 4.3 | 32 | 44 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 0 | No | 129,769 | * | |||||||||||
| 55 | 14 | - | 9 | - | 9 | In | 1.6 | 22 | 42 | 27 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | No | 148,579 | * | ||||||||||
| 54 | 14 | - | 8 | - | 10 | In | 0.4 | 14 | 36 | 33 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | No | 168,120 | * | ||||||||||
| 53 | 14 | - | 7 | - | 11 | 100.0 | % | 0.1 | 8 | 28 | 36 | 21 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | No | 186,235 | * | ||||||||
| 52 | 13 | - | 9 | - | 10 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 3 | 19 | 34 | 29 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | No | 199,565 | * | ||||||||
| 51 | 13 | - | 8 | - | 11 | 99.9 | 0.0 | 1 | 10 | 27 | 33 | 20 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | No | 212,763 | * | ||||||||
| 50 | 12 | - | 10 | - | 10 | 99.5 | No | 0 | 5 | 18 | 31 | 28 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | No | 220,065 | * | ||||||
| 49 | 12 | - | 9 | - | 11 | 97.8 | No | 0 | 2 | 9 | 24 | 31 | 22 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | No | 223,138 | * | ||||||
| 48 | 12 | - | 8 | - | 12 | 93.4 | No | 0 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 28 | 29 | 17 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | No | 101,616 | |||||||
| 11 | - | 11 | - | 10 | 93.1 | No | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 28 | 29 | 17 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | No | 121,658 | * | |||||||
| 47 | 11 | - | 10 | - | 11 | 83.4 | No | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 30 | 26 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | No | 218,083 | * | |||||
| 46 | 11 | - | 9 | - | 12 | 67.0 | No | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 24 | 30 | 22 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | No | 208,667 | * | |||||
| 45 | 11 | - | 8 | - | 13 | 46.5 | No | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 27 | 29 | 17 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | No | 195,617 | * | |||||
| 44 | 10 | - | 10 | - | 12 | 27.1 | No | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 30 | 27 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | No | 178,930 | * | ||||||
| 43 | 10 | - | 9 | - | 13 | 12.9 | No | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 24 | 31 | 22 | 8 | 1 | 0 | No | 160,450 | * | |||||||
| 42 | 10 | - | 8 | - | 14 | 4.9 | No | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 29 | 30 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | % | 141,369 | * | ||||||
| 41 | 9 | - | 10 | - | 13 | 1.5 | No | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 21 | 32 | 26 | 10 | 1 | 0.0 | 120,843 | * | ||||||||
| 40 | 9 | - | 9 | - | 14 | 0.4 | No | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 29 | 33 | 18 | 3 | 0.0 | 102,240 | * | ||||||||
| 39 | 9 | - | 8 | - | 15 | 0.1 | No | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 21 | 35 | 28 | 8 | 0.3 | 83,653 | * | |||||||||
| 38 | 8 | - | 10 | - | 14 | 0.0 | No | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 33 | 36 | 14 | 1.3 | 67,485 | * | ||||||||||
| 37 | 8 | - | 9 | - | 15 | 0.0 | No | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 26 | 42 | 23 | 3.8 | 53,008 | * | ||||||||||
| 36 | 8 | - | 8 | - | 16 | Out | No | 0 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 43 | 34 | 9.2 | 40,466 | * | |||||||||||
| 35 | 7 | - | 10 | - | 15 | Out | No | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 40 | 46 | 17.0 | 30,575 | * | |||||||||||
| 34 | 7 | - | 9 | - | 16 | Out | No | 0 | 1 | 7 | 36 | 57 | 28.8 | 22,257 | * | ||||||||||||
| 33 | 7 | - | 8 | - | 17 | Out | No | 0 | 4 | 29 | 67 | 40.8 | 15,986 | * | |||||||||||||
| 32 | 6 | - | 10 | - | 16 | Out | No | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 76 | 54.0 | 11,160 | * | ||||||||||||
| 31 | 6 | - | 9 | - | 17 | Out | No | 1 | 16 | 83 | 65.6 | 7,681 | * | ||||||||||||||
| 30 | 6 | - | 8 | - | 18 | Out | No | 0 | 12 | 88 | 75.1 | 4,934 | * | ||||||||||||||
| 29 | 5 | - | 10 | - | 17 | Out | No | 0 | 8 | 91 | 81.6 | 3,132 | * | ||||||||||||||
| 28 | 5 | - | 9 | - | 18 | Out | No | 0 | 5 | 95 | 88.2 | 2,008 | * | ||||||||||||||
| 27 | 5 | - | 8 | - | 19 | Out | No | 3 | 97 | 92.3 | 1,164 | * | |||||||||||||||
| 26 | 4 | - | 10 | - | 18 | Out | No | 2 | 98 | 95.5 | 714 | * | |||||||||||||||
| 25 | 4 | - | 9 | - | 19 | Out | No | 3 | 97 | 95.8 | 426 | * | |||||||||||||||
| 4 | -24 | Out | No | 100 | 99.5 | 851 | * | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Total: | 69.3 | % | 5.3 | % | 12 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1.2 | % | 3,909,396 | |||||||
* Row combines multiple less frequent records.
Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs
Lottery
Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.
Big Games
| Week of 3/8 | 100.0* | Lottery seed |
| Toronto 1 New York City 0 | -1.2 | |
| New England 1 Chicago 1 | -0.1 | |
| Colorado 2 Orlando 1 | -0.0 | |
| Atlanta 2 Cincinnati 1 | +0.0 | |
| Seattle 1 Columbus 1 | -0.0 | |
| Dallas 2 Montreal 2 | -0.0 | |
| DC United 2 Miami 1 | +0.0 | |
| If winner is:HomeDrawAway | ||
| Toronto vs Nashville | -1.0+0.8+1.7 | |
| Atlanta vs Kansas City | +0.1-0.0-0.1 | |
| Minnesota vs New York RB | -0.0-0.0+0.1 | |
| Columbus vs Salt Lake | +0.1-0.1-0.1 | |
| Philadelphia vs San Jose | +0.0-0.0-0.1 | |
| Miami vs LA Galaxy | +0.0-0.0-0.1 | |
| Cincinnati vs DC United | +0.0-0.1+0.0 | |
| New York City vs Dallas | +0.1-0.0-0.0 | |
| If winner is:HomeDrawAway | ||
| Week of 3/15 | 100.0* | Lottery seed |
| Cincinnati vs Toronto | +0.9-0.0-1.9 | |
| Minnesota vs Montreal | -0.0-0.0+0.1 | |
| Nashville vs Columbus | -0.0-0.0+0.1 | |
| New England vs Portland | +0.1-0.1-0.1 | |
| Salt Lake vs New England | -0.0-0.0+0.1 | |
| Chicago vs Atlanta | +0.0-0.1+0.0 | |
What If
| 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||||||
| If finish: | Chance will finish season at seed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| TP | W | - | D | - | L | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | |
| 74 | -100 | 100 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 73 | 21 | - | 6 | - | 5 | 100 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 72 | 21 | - | 5 | - | 6 | 100 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 71 | 20 | - | 7 | - | 5 | 98 | 1 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 70 | 20 | - | 6 | - | 6 | 98 | 1 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 69 | 19 | - | 8 | - | 5 | 97 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 68 | 19 | - | 7 | - | 6 | 94 | 4 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 67 | 19 | - | 6 | - | 7 | 93 | 6 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 66 | 18 | - | 8 | - | 6 | 89 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 65 | 18 | - | 7 | - | 7 | 85 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 64 | 18 | - | 6 | - | 8 | 78 | 15 | 7 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 63 | 17 | - | 8 | - | 7 | 70 | 19 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 62 | 17 | - | 7 | - | 8 | 60 | 25 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 61 | 16 | - | 9 | - | 7 | 50 | 30 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 60 | 16 | - | 8 | - | 8 | 38 | 34 | 23 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 59 | 16 | - | 7 | - | 9 | 27 | 37 | 27 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 58 | 15 | - | 9 | - | 8 | 17 | 37 | 29 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 57 | 15 | - | 8 | - | 9 | 9 | 34 | 28 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||
| 56 | 15 | - | 7 | - | 10 | 4 | 28 | 24 | 20 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||
| 55 | 14 | - | 9 | - | 9 | 2 | 21 | 16 | 26 | 21 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||
| 54 | 14 | - | 8 | - | 10 | 0 | 13 | 9 | 28 | 21 | 12 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
| 53 | 14 | - | 7 | - | 11 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 24 | 16 | 19 | 18 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||||
| 52 | 13 | - | 9 | - | 10 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 9 | 24 | 19 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||
| 51 | 13 | - | 8 | - | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 24 | 15 | 18 | 16 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||
| 50 | 12 | - | 10 | - | 10 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 17 | 8 | 23 | 17 | 11 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||
| 49 | 12 | - | 9 | - | 11 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 21 | 12 | 19 | 17 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||
| 48 | 12 | - | 8 | - | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 14 | 5 | 23 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||
| 47 | 11 | - | 10 | - | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 18 | 8 | 22 | 17 | 9 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||
| 46 | 11 | - | 9 | - | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 21 | 12 | 19 | 17 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| 45 | 11 | - | 8 | - | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 14 | 5 | 23 | 15 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||
| 44 | 10 | - | 10 | - | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 18 | 8 | 18 | 21 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||
| 43 | 10 | - | 9 | - | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 19 | 24 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||
| 42 | 10 | - | 8 | - | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 20 | 25 | 21 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||
| 41 | 9 | - | 10 | - | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 20 | 25 | 22 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||
| 40 | 9 | - | 9 | - | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 20 | 27 | 23 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 0 | ||||||||||||
| 39 | 9 | - | 8 | - | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 21 | 28 | 23 | 11 | 3 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
| 38 | 8 | - | 10 | - | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 23 | 29 | 21 | 8 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| 37 | 8 | - | 9 | - | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 28 | 30 | 17 | 4 | |||||||||||||||||
| 36 | 8 | - | 8 | - | 16 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 33 | 28 | 9 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 35 | 7 | - | 10 | - | 15 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 30 | 37 | 17 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 34 | 7 | - | 9 | - | 16 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 42 | 29 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 33 | 7 | - | 8 | - | 17 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 41 | 41 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 32 | 6 | - | 10 | - | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 36 | 54 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 31 | 6 | - | 9 | - | 17 | 0 | 5 | 29 | 66 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| 30 | 6 | - | 8 | - | 18 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 75 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| 29 | 5 | - | 10 | - | 17 | 1 | 17 | 82 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 28 | 5 | - | 9 | - | 18 | 1 | 11 | 88 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 27 | 5 | - | 8 | - | 19 | 0 | 7 | 92 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 26 | 4 | - | 10 | - | 18 | 4 | 96 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 25 | 4 | - | 9 | - | 19 | 0 | 4 | 96 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 24 | 3 | - | 11 | - | 18 | 1 | 99 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 23 | 3 | - | 10 | - | 19 | 100 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 22 | 3 | - | 9 | - | 20 | 2 | 98 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | -21 | 100 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total: | 5 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||||
Updated Sunday, 2023-10-29 12:13 PM Eastern (GMT-04:00)
