SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Seattle Sounders Playoff Chances 2020 50/50

Plays at Houston, Tied Columbus 1-1, playoff odds down 2.7 to 58.1%

4 points 1-1-0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 3/8	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Supporters Shield	100.0*	Wooden Spoon	100.0*	Average seed
Seattle 1 Columbus 1	-1.9		-0.7		+0.1		-0.2
Colorado 2 Orlando 1	-0.7						-0.1
Salt Lake 1 New York RB 1	+0.2		+0.1				*+0.0
Los Angeles FC 3 Philadelphia 3	*+0.1						*+0.0
Portland 1 Nashville 0	*-0.1
Dallas 2 Montreal 2	*+0.1						*+0.0
LA Galaxy 0 Vancouver 1	*-0.1
San Jose 2 Minnesota 5			-0.1
Kansas City 4 Houston 0					-0.1
New England 1 Chicago 1			+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Houston vs Seattle	-7.3-1.9+8.7		-1.6-0.7+2.2		+1.0+0.1-1.1		-0.6-0.2+0.8
Philadelphia vs San Jose	+0.7*+0.1-0.7						+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Miami vs LA Galaxy	+0.6+0.3-0.8						+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Toronto vs Nashville	+0.6*+0.2-0.7						+0.1*+0.0-0.1
New York City vs Dallas	+0.6*+0.2-0.7		*+0.0+0.1-0.1				+0.1+0.0-0.1
Columbus vs Salt Lake	+0.5+0.3-0.7						+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Atlanta vs Kansas City	+0.5+0.3-0.7						+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Minnesota vs New York RB	-0.6*+0.1+0.5						-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Vancouver vs Colorado	-0.3+0.3*+0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/15	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Supporters Shield	100.0*	Wooden Spoon	100.0*	Average seed
Seattle vs Dallas	+8.7-1.9-7.2		+2.1-0.7-1.6		-1.1+0.1+1.0		+0.8-0.2-0.6
New York City vs Vancouver	+0.6+0.2-0.8						+0.1*+0.0-0.1
New England vs Portland	+0.6*+0.2-0.7						+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Nashville vs Columbus	-0.7*+0.2+0.5						-0.1*+0.0+0.0
Minnesota vs Montreal	-0.6*+0.2+0.4						-0.1+0.0+0.0
Salt Lake vs New England	-0.6*+0.2+0.4
Colorado vs Houston	*+0.0+0.3-0.2
San Jose vs Kansas City			+0.1*+0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Seattle finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Supporters		Chance will finish regular season at seed													Wooden
TP		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		Shield		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	Spoon		Count

74	-100						In		99.8	%	100													No		422	*
73		21	-	6	-	5	In		99.0		100	0												No		201	*
72		21	-	5	-	6	In		99.7		100													No		311	*
71		20	-	7	-	5	In		98.9		100	0												No		464	*
70		20	-	6	-	6	In		97.3		99	1												No		710	*
69		19	-	8	-	5	In		96.9		99	1												No		1,108	*
68		19	-	7	-	6	In		95.3		98	2												No		1,582	*
67		19	-	6	-	7	In		92.7		97	3	0											No		2,296	*
66		18	-	8	-	6	In		89.1		94	6	0											No		3,171	*
65		18	-	7	-	7	In		86.5		93	7	0											No		4,424	*
64		18	-	6	-	8	In		80.3		90	10	0	0										No		5,956	*
63		17	-	8	-	7	In		73.1		86	14	1	0										No		7,821	*
62		17	-	7	-	8	In		62.9		79	20	1	0										No		10,392	*
61		16	-	9	-	7	In		52.0		72	25	3	0										No		13,413	*
60		16	-	8	-	8	In		40.8		63	32	5	0	0									No		16,649	*
59		16	-	7	-	9	In		29.0		54	37	8	1	0	0								No		20,613	*
58		15	-	9	-	8	In		18.9		44	42	13	2	0									No		25,153	*
57		15	-	8	-	9	In		10.0		32	44	20	4	0	0								No		30,229	*
56		15	-	7	-	10	In		4.6		23	42	27	8	1	0	0							No		35,731	*
55		14	-	9	-	9	In		1.8		15	36	33	14	3	0	0							No		41,103	*
54		14	-	8	-	10	In		0.5		8	29	36	21	6	1	0							No		46,601	*
53		14	-	7	-	11	100.0	%	0.1		4	20	33	28	12	3	0	0						No		52,180	*
52		13	-	9	-	10	99.9		0.0		2	11	28	32	20	6	1	0	0					No		57,008	*
51		13	-	8	-	11	99.5		No		1	5	19	31	27	13	3	0	0					No		61,048	*
50		12	-	10	-	10	98.0		No		0	2	10	25	31	21	8	2	0	0	0			No		64,170	*
49		12	-	9	-	11	94.0		No		0	1	5	16	29	29	16	5	1	0	0			No		67,610	*
48		12	-	8	-	12	85.0		No		0	0	2	8	21	30	24	12	3	0	0			No		68,894	*
47		11	-	10	-	11	70.1		No			0	0	3	12	25	30	20	8	2	0	0		No		68,930	*
46		11	-	9	-	12	50.5		No			0	0	1	5	16	28	28	16	5	1	0	0	No		67,885	*
45		11	-	8	-	13	31.1		No				0	0	2	8	21	30	25	11	3	0	0	No		65,399	*
44		10	-	10	-	12	15.9		No				0	0	0	3	12	26	30	20	7	1	0	No		62,095	*
43		10	-	9	-	13	6.6		No						0	1	6	17	30	29	14	3	0	No		57,777	*
42		10	-	8	-	14	2.3		No						0	0	2	9	24	32	23	8	1	No		52,816	*
41		9	-	10	-	13	0.7		No							0	1	4	15	30	32	15	3	No		47,178	*
40		9	-	9	-	14	0.2		No							0	0	2	8	24	35	25	6	0.1	%	41,573	*
39		9	-	8	-	15	0.0		No								0	1	4	16	34	34	11	0.3		36,014	*
38		8	-	10	-	14	0.0		No								0	0	1	9	29	40	19	1.2		30,391	*
37		8	-	9	-	15	Out		No									0	1	5	22	43	30	3.4		25,133	*
36		8	-	8	-	16	Out		No										0	2	15	42	41	8.6		20,454	*
35		7	-	10	-	15	Out		No										0	1	9	38	52	17.1		16,233	*
34		7	-	9	-	16	Out		No										0	0	5	32	62	26.9		12,627	*
33		7	-	8	-	17	Out		No											0	3	25	72	40.4		9,566	*
32		6	-	10	-	16	Out		No											0	1	20	79	50.7		6,902	*
31		6	-	9	-	17	Out		No												1	14	86	64.3		5,195	*
30		6	-	8	-	18	Out		No											0	0	10	90	73.1		3,709	*
29		5	-	10	-	17	Out		No												0	6	94	81.9		2,592	*
28		5	-	9	-	18	Out		No													3	97	87.6		1,658	*
27		5	-	8	-	19	Out		No													3	97	91.9		1,129	*
26		4	-	10	-	18	Out		No													1	99	95.9		687	*
25		4	-	9	-	19	Out		No													1	99	96.1		440	*
24		4	-	8	-	20	Out		No													1	99	96.3		268	*
4	-23						Out		No														100	99.8		433	*

Total:							58.1	%	4.8	%	8	9	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	7	7	7	6	2.3	%	1,276,344

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 3/8	100.0*	Lottery seed
Seattle 1 Columbus 1	+0.4
Colorado 2 Orlando 1	+0.1
Salt Lake 1 New York RB 1	-0.0
Los Angeles FC 3 Philadelphia 3	*-0.0
Dallas 2 Montreal 2	*-0.0
Portland 1 Nashville 0	*+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Houston vs Seattle	+1.3+0.4-1.6
Atlanta vs Kansas City	-0.1-0.0+0.1
Minnesota vs New York RB	+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Toronto vs Nashville	-0.1*-0.0+0.1
New York City vs Dallas	-0.0-0.0+0.1
Columbus vs Salt Lake	-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Miami vs LA Galaxy	-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Philadelphia vs San Jose	-0.1*-0.0+0.1

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/15	100.0*	Lottery seed
Seattle vs Dallas	-1.6+0.4+1.3
New York City vs Vancouver	-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Minnesota vs Montreal	+0.1-0.0-0.0
New England vs Portland	-0.0*-0.0+0.1
San Jose vs Kansas City	-0.0-0.1+0.0
Nashville vs Columbus	+0.1*-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26

79	-100						100
78		23	-	5	-	4	93	7
74	-77						100
73		21	-	6	-	5	99	0	0
72		21	-	5	-	6	100	0
71		20	-	7	-	5	99	1	0
70		20	-	6	-	6	97	1	1
69		19	-	8	-	5	97	2	1
68		19	-	7	-	6	95	3	2
67		19	-	6	-	7	93	4	3		0
66		18	-	8	-	6	89	5	6		0
65		18	-	7	-	7	86	7	7	0	0
64		18	-	6	-	8	80	9	10		0		0
63		17	-	8	-	7	73	13	13	0	1		0
62		17	-	7	-	8	63	16	19	0	1		0
61		16	-	9	-	7	52	20	24	1	3		0
60		16	-	8	-	8	41	22	30	1	5	0	0		0
59		16	-	7	-	9	29	25	34	3	8	0	1		0		0
58		15	-	9	-	8	19	25	36	6	13	0	2		0
57		15	-	8	-	9	10	22	34	10	19	1	4		0		0
56		15	-	7	-	10	5	18	28	14	25	2	8	0	1		0		0
55		14	-	9	-	9	2	13	18	18	28	4	13	0	3	0	0		0
54		14	-	8	-	10	1	8	10	19	27	9	20	1	6	0	1		0
53		14	-	7	-	11	0	4	4	16	20	14	25	3	12	0	3	0	0		0
52		13	-	9	-	10	0	2	1	10	11	17	24	7	19	1	6	0	1		0	0
51		13	-	8	-	11		1	0	5	4	15	18	13	24	3	13	0	3	0	0	0
50		12	-	10	-	10		0	0	2	1	10	9	16	22	9	20	1	8	0	2	0	0	0
49		12	-	9	-	11		0		1	0	4	2	13	14	14	24	5	16	0	5	1	0	0
48		12	-	8	-	12		0		0	0	2	0	7	5	15	19	11	22	2	11	3	0	0
47		11	-	10	-	11				0		0	0	3	1	11	9	16	22	8	19	8	2	0	0
46		11	-	9	-	12				0		0		1	0	5	2	14	14	14	23	17	7	2	0	0
45		11	-	8	-	13						0		0	0	2	0	8	5	16	18	25	17	7	2	0	0	0
44		10	-	10	-	12						0		0		0	0	3	1	11	9	21	25	18	8	2	0	0	0
43		10	-	9	-	13										0	0	1	0	5	3	10	21	26	19	10	3	1	0	0
42		10	-	8	-	14										0		0	0	2	1	3	11	20	26	21	11	4	1	0	0
41		9	-	10	-	13												0		1	0	1	3	10	20	25	22	13	4	1	0
40		9	-	9	-	14												0		0		0	1	3	10	20	27	23	12	4	1	0
39		9	-	8	-	15														0		0	0	1	3	10	21	28	22	11	3	0
38		8	-	10	-	14														0			0	0	1	4	12	24	29	21	8	1
37		8	-	9	-	15																		0	0	1	5	15	28	30	17	3
36		8	-	8	-	16																		0	0	0	2	8	21	33	27	9
35		7	-	10	-	15																				0	1	3	13	30	36	17
34		7	-	9	-	16																				0	0	1	7	24	41	27
33		7	-	8	-	17																					0	0	3	16	40	40
32		6	-	10	-	16																						0	1	10	38	51
31		6	-	9	-	17																							1	5	30	64
30		6	-	8	-	18																						0	0	2	24	73
29		5	-	10	-	17																								1	17	82
28		5	-	9	-	18																							0	0	12	88
27		5	-	8	-	19																								0	8	92
26		4	-	10	-	18																									4	96
25		4	-	9	-	19																									4	96
24		4	-	8	-	20																									4	96
23		3	-	10	-	19																										100
22		3	-	9	-	20																									1	99
4	-21																															100

Total:							5	4	5	4	5	3	5	3	5	3	5	3	5	3	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	2