SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

San Jose Earthquakes Playoff Chances 2020 50/50

Plays at Philadelphia, Lost to Minnesota 2-5, playoff odds down 7.5 to 42.4%

1 points 0-1-1

Add your own league!

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 3/8	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Supporters Shield	100.0*	Wooden Spoon	100.0*	Average seed
San Jose 2 Minnesota 5	-7.3		-1.2		+1.5		-0.6
Colorado 2 Orlando 1	-0.7						-0.1
Dallas 2 Montreal 2	+0.2						+0.0
Salt Lake 1 New York RB 1	+0.2						+0.0
LA Galaxy 0 Vancouver 1	*-0.1
Los Angeles FC 3 Philadelphia 3	*+0.1				*-0.1		+0.0
Portland 1 Nashville 0	*-0.1
Kansas City 4 Houston 0	*-0.1
Seattle 1 Columbus 1	*+0.1		+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Philadelphia vs San Jose	-6.5-2.2+8.1		-0.8-0.4+1.1		+2.0+0.3-2.2		-0.6-0.2+0.7
Toronto vs Nashville	+0.6*+0.1-0.7						+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Columbus vs Salt Lake	+0.6*+0.1-0.7						+0.1*+0.0-0.1
New York City vs Dallas	+0.6*+0.2-0.7						+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Miami vs LA Galaxy	+0.6*+0.2-0.7						+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Atlanta vs Kansas City	+0.6*+0.0-0.6						+0.0+0.0-0.1
Minnesota vs New York RB	-0.6+0.2+0.4						-0.1*+0.0+0.0
Houston vs Seattle	*-0.2+0.6-0.3
Vancouver vs Colorado	-0.3+0.5*-0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/15	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Supporters Shield	100.0*	Wooden Spoon	100.0*	Average seed
San Jose vs Kansas City	+8.7-2.2-7.1		+1.1-0.4-0.8		-2.2+0.4+1.9		+0.8-0.2-0.6
Nashville vs Columbus	-0.7+0.3+0.5						-0.1+0.0+0.0
New England vs Portland	+0.6*+0.1-0.7						+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Salt Lake vs New England	-0.7+0.2+0.5						-0.1+0.0+0.0
New York City vs Vancouver	+0.5+0.2-0.7						+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Minnesota vs Montreal	-0.5*+0.1+0.4
Seattle vs Dallas	*-0.1+0.4-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the San Jose finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Supporters		Chance will finish regular season at seed													Wooden
TP		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		Shield		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	Spoon		Count

72	-97						In		Yes		100													No		289	*
71		21	-	7	-	4	In		98.2	%	98	2												No		114	*
70		21	-	6	-	5	In		Yes		100													No		184	*
69		21	-	5	-	6	In		98.0		99	1												No		305	*
68		20	-	7	-	5	In		94.7		97	3												No		453	*
67		20	-	6	-	6	In		93.3		96	4												No		745	*
66		20	-	5	-	7	In		91.0		96	4												No		1,064	*
65		19	-	7	-	6	In		85.3		93	7	0											No		1,623	*
64		19	-	6	-	7	In		81.0		90	10	0											No		2,215	*
63		18	-	8	-	6	In		71.2		85	15	0											No		3,147	*
62		18	-	7	-	7	In		63.3		78	20	2	0										No		4,329	*
61		18	-	6	-	8	In		52.0		72	26	2	0										No		5,939	*
60		17	-	8	-	7	In		41.0		64	31	5	0										No		7,826	*
59		17	-	7	-	8	In		29.9		55	36	8	1	0									No		10,399	*
58		16	-	9	-	7	In		18.7		43	41	13	2	0									No		13,182	*
57		16	-	8	-	8	In		10.6		33	43	20	4	0	0								No		16,748	*
56		16	-	7	-	9	In		4.9		23	42	26	8	1	0								No		20,783	*
55		15	-	9	-	8	In		2.0		15	36	33	13	3	0	0							No		25,606	*
54		15	-	8	-	9	100.0	%	0.5		8	28	36	21	6	1	0	0						No		30,215	*
53		15	-	7	-	10	100.0		0.1		4	19	34	28	12	3	0	0						No		35,987	*
52		14	-	9	-	9	99.9		0.0		2	11	27	32	20	7	1	0	0					No		41,117	*
51		14	-	8	-	10	99.4		No		1	5	18	31	27	13	4	1	0					No		46,377	*
50		14	-	7	-	11	98.0		No		0	2	10	25	31	21	8	2	0	0				No		52,051	*
49		13	-	9	-	10	93.8		No		0	1	5	16	28	29	16	5	1	0	0			No		56,781	*
48		13	-	8	-	11	84.7		No		0	0	2	8	20	30	25	12	3	0	0			No		61,381	*
47		12	-	10	-	10	69.8		No			0	0	3	12	25	30	20	8	2	0	0		No		64,630	*
46		12	-	9	-	11	50.3		No				0	1	5	16	28	28	16	5	1	0	0	No		67,257	*
45		12	-	8	-	12	30.6		No			0	0	0	2	8	21	30	25	11	3	0	0	No		68,667	*
44		11	-	10	-	11	15.3		No					0	0	3	12	25	31	20	7	1	0	No		69,086	*
43		11	-	9	-	12	6.4		No					0	0	1	5	17	30	29	14	4	0	No		68,120	*
42		11	-	8	-	13	2.1		No						0	0	2	9	23	33	23	8	1	No		65,753	*
41		10	-	10	-	12	0.6		No							0	1	4	15	31	31	16	3	0.0	%	62,144	*
40		10	-	9	-	13	0.2		No							0	0	1	8	24	35	25	6	0.0		57,476	*
39		10	-	8	-	14	0.0		No								0	0	4	16	34	34	12	0.2		52,804	*
38		9	-	10	-	13	0.0		No								0	0	1	9	29	40	20	1.2		47,214	*
37		9	-	9	-	14	Out		No									0	0	5	21	43	30	3.7		41,688	*
36		9	-	8	-	15	Out		No									0	0	2	14	43	41	8.6		35,566	*
35		8	-	10	-	14	Out		No										0	1	9	38	52	16.8		30,279	*
34		8	-	9	-	15	Out		No									0	0	0	5	31	63	27.6		25,086	*
33		8	-	8	-	16	Out		No											0	3	25	72	40.2		20,448	*
32		7	-	10	-	15	Out		No											0	1	19	79	52.8		16,227	*
31		7	-	9	-	16	Out		No											0	1	14	86	63.4		12,589	*
30		7	-	8	-	17	Out		No												0	9	90	74.0		9,397	*
29		6	-	10	-	16	Out		No												0	6	93	82.4		7,202	*
28		6	-	9	-	17	Out		No												0	4	96	88.1		5,121	*
27		6	-	8	-	18	Out		No													3	97	91.7		3,562	*
26		5	-	10	-	17	Out		No													2	98	94.7		2,528	*
25		5	-	9	-	18	Out		No													1	99	96.8		1,727	*
24		5	-	8	-	19	Out		No													1	99	97.3		1,067	*
23		4	-	10	-	18	Out		No													1	99	98.1		719	*
22		4	-	9	-	19	Out		No													0	100	99.3		419	*
1	-21						Out		No														100	99.9		708	*

Total:							42.4	%	2.1	%	4	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	11	12	5.5	%	1,276,344

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 3/8	100.0*	Lottery seed
San Jose 2 Minnesota 5	+1.3
Colorado 2 Orlando 1	+0.1
Dallas 2 Montreal 2	-0.0
Salt Lake 1 New York RB 1	-0.0
Los Angeles FC 3 Philadelphia 3	*-0.0
Seattle 1 Columbus 1	-0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Philadelphia vs San Jose	+1.2+0.4-1.5
Toronto vs Nashville	-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Atlanta vs Kansas City	-0.1-0.0+0.1
Houston vs Seattle	+0.0-0.1+0.0
Columbus vs Salt Lake	-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Minnesota vs New York RB	+0.1*-0.0-0.0
Vancouver vs Colorado	+0.0-0.1+0.0
New York City vs Dallas	-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Miami vs LA Galaxy	-0.0*-0.0+0.1

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/15	100.0*	Lottery seed
San Jose vs Kansas City	-1.6+0.4+1.3
Nashville vs Columbus	+0.1-0.0-0.0
Seattle vs Dallas	*+0.0-0.1+0.0
Salt Lake vs New England	+0.1-0.0-0.0
New England vs Portland	-0.0*-0.0+0.1
New York City vs Vancouver	-0.0*-0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26

72	-97						100
71		21	-	7	-	4	98		2
70		21	-	6	-	5	100
69		21	-	5	-	6	98	1	1
68		20	-	7	-	5	95	2	3
67		20	-	6	-	6	93	3	4
66		20	-	5	-	7	91	5	4
65		19	-	7	-	6	85	7	7		0
64		19	-	6	-	7	81	9	10		0
63		18	-	8	-	6	71	13	15	0	0
62		18	-	7	-	7	63	15	20	0	2		0
61		18	-	6	-	8	52	20	25	1	2		0
60		17	-	8	-	7	41	23	30	1	5		0
59		17	-	7	-	8	30	25	33	3	8	0	1		0
58		16	-	9	-	7	19	25	36	5	13	0	2		0
57		16	-	8	-	8	11	22	34	9	19	1	4	0	0		0
56		16	-	7	-	9	5	18	28	14	25	2	8	0	1		0
55		15	-	9	-	8	2	13	19	17	29	4	13	0	3		0		0
54		15	-	8	-	9	1	8	10	18	27	8	20	1	6	0	1		0		0
53		15	-	7	-	10	0	4	4	15	21	13	25	3	12	0	3	0	0		0
52		14	-	9	-	9	0	2	1	10	11	16	25	7	19	1	7	0	1		0	0
51		14	-	8	-	10		1	0	5	4	14	19	12	24	3	13	0	4	0	1	0
50		14	-	7	-	11		0	0	2	1	9	9	15	23	8	20	1	8	0	2	0	0
49		13	-	9	-	10		0		1	0	4	3	13	15	14	24	5	16	0	5	1	0	0
48		13	-	8	-	11		0		0	0	2	0	7	5	15	20	10	23	2	12	3	0	0
47		12	-	10	-	10				0		0	0	3	1	10	10	15	23	7	19	9	2	0	0
46		12	-	9	-	11						0		1	0	5	3	13	14	14	24	18	7	2	0	0	0
45		12	-	8	-	12				0		0		0	0	2	0	8	5	15	19	25	17	7	2	0	0	0
44		11	-	10	-	11								0	0	0	0	3	1	11	9	21	25	18	8	2	0	0	0	0
43		11	-	9	-	12								0		0		1	0	5	3	11	22	25	19	10	3	1	0	0
42		11	-	8	-	13										0		0	0	2	1	3	11	21	25	21	11	4	1	0	0
41		10	-	10	-	12												0	0	1	0	1	3	11	20	26	22	12	4	1	0	0
40		10	-	9	-	13												0		0	0	0	1	3	10	20	26	23	12	4	1	0
39		10	-	8	-	14														0		0	0	1	3	10	21	27	23	11	3	0
38		9	-	10	-	13														0			0	0	1	4	12	24	29	21	8	1
37		9	-	9	-	14																		0	0	1	5	15	28	30	17	4
36		9	-	8	-	15																			0	0	2	8	21	33	27	9
35		8	-	10	-	14																				0	0	3	13	30	36	17
34		8	-	9	-	15																				0	0	1	7	23	41	28
33		8	-	8	-	16																				0	0	0	3	16	40	40
32		7	-	10	-	15																					0	0	1	10	36	53
31		7	-	9	-	16																						0	0	5	31	63
30		7	-	8	-	17																							0	2	23	74
29		6	-	10	-	16																							0	1	16	82
28		6	-	9	-	17																								1	11	88
27		6	-	8	-	18																								0	8	92
26		5	-	10	-	17																								0	5	95
25		5	-	9	-	18																								0	3	97
24		5	-	8	-	19																								0	3	97
23		4	-	10	-	18																									2	98
22		4	-	9	-	19																									1	99
21		4	-	8	-	20																										100
20		3	-	10	-	19																									1	99
1	-19																															100

Total:							2	2	3	2	3	2	4	3	4	3	4	3	5	3	5	5	5	5	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5