SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Real Salt Lake Playoff Chances 2020 50/50

Plays at Columbus, Tied New York RB 1-1, playoff odds down 2.8 to 47.1%

2 points 0-2-0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 3/8	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Supporters Shield	100.0*	Wooden Spoon	100.0*	Average seed
Salt Lake 1 New York RB 1	-2.1		-0.5		+0.3		-0.2
Colorado 2 Orlando 1	-0.7				*-0.1		-0.1
Los Angeles FC 3 Philadelphia 3	+0.3						+0.0
Dallas 2 Montreal 2	+0.2		+0.1				+0.0
LA Galaxy 0 Vancouver 1	-0.2
Seattle 1 Columbus 1	*+0.1						*+0.0
Kansas City 4 Houston 0	*-0.1
Portland 1 Nashville 0	*-0.1
San Jose 2 Minnesota 5	*-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Columbus vs Salt Lake	-6.5-2.3+8.3		-1.1-0.5+1.4		+1.6+0.3-1.8		-0.6-0.2+0.7
Toronto vs Nashville	+0.6+0.3-0.8						+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Philadelphia vs San Jose	+0.6*+0.2-0.7						+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Miami vs LA Galaxy	+0.6*+0.1-0.7						+0.0*+0.0-0.1
New York City vs Dallas	+0.5*+0.2-0.7				+0.1*+0.0-0.1		+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Atlanta vs Kansas City	+0.5*+0.2-0.7						+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Minnesota vs New York RB	-0.6*+0.0+0.5						-0.1+0.0+0.1

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/15	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Supporters Shield	100.0*	Wooden Spoon	100.0*	Average seed
Salt Lake vs New England	+8.2-2.3-6.5		+1.3-0.4-1.0		-1.8+0.3+1.6		+0.7-0.2-0.6
New England vs Portland	+0.6+0.3-0.9						+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Nashville vs Columbus	-0.7*+0.0+0.6						-0.1*+0.0+0.1
New York City vs Vancouver	+0.6*+0.1-0.7						+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Minnesota vs Montreal	-0.6*+0.1+0.5						-0.1*+0.0+0.0
Colorado vs Houston	*-0.0+0.4-0.3
Seattle vs Dallas	*-0.1+0.4-0.2
Chicago vs Atlanta					+0.1*-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Salt Lake finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Supporters		Chance will finish regular season at seed													Wooden
TP		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		Shield		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	Spoon		Count

72	-98						In		99.8	%	100													No		402	*
71		21	-	6	-	5	In		98.9		99	1												No		182	*
70		21	-	5	-	6	In		97.4		98	2												No		307	*
69		20	-	7	-	5	In		96.7		98	2												No		483	*
68		20	-	6	-	6	In		95.3		98	2	0											No		737	*
67		19	-	8	-	5	In		93.3		96	4	0											No		1,007	*
66		19	-	7	-	6	In		88.7		95	5												No		1,552	*
65		19	-	6	-	7	In		86.7		93	7	0											No		2,256	*
64		18	-	8	-	6	In		80.1		89	10	0	0										No		3,073	*
63		18	-	7	-	7	In		72.4		85	15	1											No		4,448	*
62		18	-	6	-	8	In		63.3		79	19	1	0										No		5,835	*
61		17	-	8	-	7	In		51.9		72	25	3	0	0									No		7,974	*
60		17	-	7	-	8	In		39.8		63	32	5	0										No		10,324	*
59		16	-	9	-	7	In		28.2		53	37	9	1	0									No		13,268	*
58		16	-	8	-	8	In		18.0		43	41	14	2	0	0								No		16,977	*
57		16	-	7	-	9	In		10.0		32	43	20	4	0	0								No		20,993	*
56		15	-	9	-	8	In		4.6		22	42	27	8	1	0								No		25,277	*
55		15	-	8	-	9	In		1.7		14	36	33	14	3	0	0							No		30,353	*
54		15	-	7	-	10	In		0.5		8	27	36	22	7	1	0							No		35,586	*
53		14	-	9	-	9	100.0	%	0.1		4	18	33	29	13	3	0	0	0					No		41,074	*
52		14	-	8	-	10	99.8		0.0		2	10	26	32	21	7	1	0	0					No		46,595	*
51		14	-	7	-	11	99.4		0.0		0	5	18	31	28	14	4	1	0					No		52,035	*
50		13	-	9	-	10	97.7		No		0	2	10	24	31	22	9	2	0	0				No		57,353	*
49		13	-	8	-	11	93.4		No		0	1	4	15	28	29	17	5	1	0				No		61,350	*
48		12	-	10	-	10	83.8		No		0	0	1	7	19	30	26	12	3	0	0	0		No		64,739	*
47		12	-	9	-	11	67.7		No			0	0	3	11	24	30	21	9	2	0	0		No		67,022	*
46		12	-	8	-	12	48.1		No			0	0	1	5	15	27	28	17	5	1	0	0	No		68,464	*
45		11	-	10	-	11	28.5		No				0	0	2	7	20	30	26	12	3	0	0	No		68,817	*
44		11	-	9	-	12	14.3		No					0	0	3	11	24	31	21	8	1	0	No		67,985	*
43		11	-	8	-	13	5.8		No					0	0	1	5	16	29	29	15	4	0	No		65,404	*
42		10	-	10	-	12	1.9		No						0	0	2	8	23	33	24	9	1	No		62,832	*
41		10	-	9	-	13	0.5		No							0	0	4	14	31	32	16	3	0.0	%	57,317	*
40		10	-	8	-	14	0.1		No								0	1	8	23	36	26	6	0.0		52,802	*
39		9	-	10	-	13	0.0		No								0	0	3	15	34	35	13	0.3		47,277	*
38		9	-	9	-	14	Out		No									0	1	9	28	41	21	1.4		41,701	*
37		9	-	8	-	15	Out		No									0	0	4	21	44	30	3.9		36,160	*
36		8	-	10	-	14	Out		No									0	0	2	14	42	42	9.2		30,237	*
35		8	-	9	-	15	Out		No										0	1	9	37	53	17.9		25,017	*
34		8	-	8	-	16	Out		No										0	0	5	31	64	29.0		20,208	*
33		7	-	10	-	15	Out		No											0	2	25	73	41.0		15,850	*
32		7	-	9	-	16	Out		No											0	1	18	80	52.8		12,515	*
31		7	-	8	-	17	Out		No											0	1	13	87	64.9		9,406	*
30		6	-	10	-	16	Out		No												0	9	91	74.7		7,147	*
29		6	-	9	-	17	Out		No												0	6	93	81.0		5,050	*
28		6	-	8	-	18	Out		No												0	4	96	87.6		3,629	*
27		5	-	10	-	17	Out		No												0	3	97	91.8		2,527	*
26		5	-	9	-	18	Out		No													1	99	95.4		1,798	*
25		5	-	8	-	19	Out		No													1	99	96.4		1,133	*
24		5	-	7	-	20	Out		No													0	100	98.0		687	*
2	-23						Out		No														100	99.3		1,179	*

Total:							47.1	%	2.7	%	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	8	8	9	9	9	10	4.2	%	1,276,344

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 3/8	100.0*	Lottery seed
Salt Lake 1 New York RB 1	+0.4
Colorado 2 Orlando 1	+0.1
Dallas 2 Montreal 2	-0.0
Los Angeles FC 3 Philadelphia 3	*-0.0
Seattle 1 Columbus 1	-0.0
Kansas City 4 Houston 0	+0.0
San Jose 2 Minnesota 5	+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Columbus vs Salt Lake	+1.2+0.4-1.5
Atlanta vs Kansas City	-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Toronto vs Nashville	-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Minnesota vs New York RB	+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Philadelphia vs San Jose	-0.0*-0.0+0.1
New York City vs Dallas	-0.0-0.0+0.1
Miami vs LA Galaxy	-0.0*-0.0+0.1

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/15	100.0*	Lottery seed
Salt Lake vs New England	-1.5+0.4+1.2
New England vs Portland	-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Nashville vs Columbus	+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Minnesota vs Montreal	+0.1*-0.0-0.0
New York City vs Vancouver	-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Colorado vs Houston	+0.0-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26

74	-98						100
73		22	-	5	-	5	99	1
72		21	-	7	-	4	100
71		21	-	6	-	5	99	1	1
70		21	-	5	-	6	97	1	2
69		20	-	7	-	5	97	1	2
68		20	-	6	-	6	95	3	2		0
67		19	-	8	-	5	93	3	4		0
66		19	-	7	-	6	89	6	5
65		19	-	6	-	7	87	6	7		0
64		18	-	8	-	6	80	9	10		0		0
63		18	-	7	-	7	72	12	15	0	1
62		18	-	6	-	8	63	16	19	0	1	0	0
61		17	-	8	-	7	52	20	25	0	3		0		0
60		17	-	7	-	8	40	23	30	1	5	0	0
59		16	-	9	-	7	28	25	34	3	9	0	1		0
58		16	-	8	-	8	18	25	35	6	14	0	2		0		0
57		16	-	7	-	9	10	22	33	10	20	1	4	0	0		0
56		15	-	9	-	8	5	17	28	14	25	2	8	0	1	0	0
55		15	-	8	-	9	2	12	18	18	28	4	14	0	3		0		0
54		15	-	7	-	10	0	7	10	18	27	9	21	1	7	0	1		0
53		14	-	9	-	9	0	4	4	15	19	14	25	3	13	0	3		0		0	0
52		14	-	8	-	10	0	2	1	10	10	16	25	8	20	1	7	0	1		0	0
51		14	-	7	-	11	0	0	0	5	4	14	17	13	24	3	14	0	4	0	1	0
50		13	-	9	-	10		0	0	2	1	9	8	15	22	9	21	1	9	0	2	0	0
49		13	-	8	-	11		0		1	0	4	2	12	14	15	24	5	17	0	5	1	0
48		12	-	10	-	10		0		0	0	1	0	7	5	15	19	11	23	3	12	3	0	0	0	0
47		12	-	9	-	11				0		0	0	3	1	10	9	15	22	8	20	9	2	0	0	0
46		12	-	8	-	12				0		0		1	0	5	2	13	13	14	23	19	8	2	0	0	0	0
45		11	-	10	-	11						0		0	0	2	0	7	4	15	18	25	18	8	2	0	0	0
44		11	-	9	-	12								0		0	0	3	1	10	8	20	26	19	9	3	1	0	0	0
43		11	-	8	-	13								0		0		1	0	5	2	10	21	26	20	11	4	1	0	0
42		10	-	10	-	12										0		0	0	2	0	3	10	20	26	22	12	5	1	0	0
41		10	-	9	-	13												0		0	0	1	3	9	19	26	23	13	5	1	0	0
40		10	-	8	-	14														0	0	0	1	3	9	19	27	24	13	4	1	0
39		9	-	10	-	13														0		0	0	1	3	10	20	28	23	12	3	0
38		9	-	9	-	14																	0	0	1	4	11	23	29	22	9	1
37		9	-	8	-	15																		0	0	1	5	14	27	31	18	4
36		8	-	10	-	14																			0	0	1	7	20	33	28	9
35		8	-	9	-	15																			0	0	0	3	13	30	36	18
34		8	-	8	-	16																				0	0	1	6	23	41	29
33		7	-	10	-	15																				0	0	0	3	15	41	41
32		7	-	9	-	16																					0	0	1	9	36	53
31		7	-	8	-	17																						0	1	5	30	65
30		6	-	10	-	16																							0	3	23	75
29		6	-	9	-	17																							0	1	18	81
28		6	-	8	-	18																							0	0	12	88
27		5	-	10	-	17																								0	8	92
26		5	-	9	-	18																								0	5	95
25		5	-	8	-	19																									4	96
24		5	-	7	-	20																									2	98
23		4	-	9	-	19																									0	100
22		4	-	8	-	20																									1	99
21		3	-	10	-	19																									1	99
20		3	-	9	-	20																									1	99
2	-19																															100

Total:							3	2	3	3	4	3	4	3	4	3	5	3	5	3	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4