SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Being true to yourself,
80’s style

Portland Timbers Playoff Chances 2020 50/50

Beat Nashville 1-0, playoff odds up 8.3 to 53.5%

3 points 1-0-1

Add your own league!

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 3/8	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Supporters Shield	100.0*	Wooden Spoon	100.0*	Average seed
Portland 1 Nashville 0	+8.6		+1.3		-2.1		+0.8
Colorado 2 Orlando 1	-0.6						-0.1
Seattle 1 Columbus 1	+0.2				*-0.1		+0.0
Salt Lake 1 New York RB 1	+0.2		+0.1				*+0.0
Kansas City 4 Houston 0	*-0.1		-0.1
Los Angeles FC 3 Philadelphia 3	*+0.1						*+0.0
LA Galaxy 0 Vancouver 1	*-0.1
San Jose 2 Minnesota 5	*-0.1
Dallas 2 Montreal 2	*+0.1						*+0.0
Atlanta 2 Cincinnati 1			-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
New York City vs Dallas	+0.6*+0.1-0.7				+0.1*-0.0-0.1		+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Columbus vs Salt Lake	+0.5+0.2-0.7						+0.0+0.0-0.1
Minnesota vs New York RB	-0.7*+0.2+0.5						-0.1+0.0+0.1
Toronto vs Nashville	+0.5*+0.2-0.7				-0.1*-0.0+0.1		+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Atlanta vs Kansas City	+0.5*+0.2-0.7						+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Miami vs LA Galaxy	+0.6*+0.0-0.6						+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Philadelphia vs San Jose	+0.5*+0.2-0.6						+0.0*+0.0-0.1

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/15	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Supporters Shield	100.0*	Wooden Spoon	100.0*	Average seed
New England vs Portland	-6.7-2.1+8.3		-1.3-0.6+1.8		+1.2+0.1-1.3		-0.6-0.2+0.7
New York City vs Vancouver	+0.6+0.2-0.8						+0.1+0.0-0.1
Minnesota vs Montreal	-0.7*+0.2+0.6						-0.1+0.0+0.1
Salt Lake vs New England	-0.7+0.3+0.5						-0.1*+0.0+0.0
Nashville vs Columbus	-0.7+0.3+0.5						-0.1+0.0+0.0
Colorado vs Houston	*-0.0+0.3-0.2		-0.1+0.1*+0.0
San Jose vs Kansas City			*+0.0+0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Portland finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Supporters		Chance will finish regular season at seed													Wooden
TP		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		Shield		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	Spoon		Count

72	-99						In		99.5	%	100													No		583	*
71		21	-	5	-	6	In		98.5		99	1												No		325	*
70		20	-	7	-	5	In		98.7		99	1												No		471	*
69		20	-	6	-	6	In		97.3		98	2												No		702	*
68		19	-	8	-	5	In		95.6		98	2												No		1,044	*
67		19	-	7	-	6	In		93.8		97	3	0											No		1,589	*
66		19	-	6	-	7	In		90.0		95	5	0											No		2,256	*
65		18	-	8	-	6	In		86.1		93	7	0											No		3,133	*
64		18	-	7	-	7	In		81.1		90	10	0											No		4,432	*
63		18	-	6	-	8	In		74.1		86	14	1											No		5,998	*
62		17	-	8	-	7	In		64.1		80	19	2	0										No		7,865	*
61		17	-	7	-	8	In		53.7		73	24	2	0	0									No		10,384	*
60		16	-	9	-	7	In		42.5		65	31	4	0	0									No		13,229	*
59		16	-	8	-	8	In		30.6		55	37	8	1	0									No		16,765	*
58		16	-	7	-	9	In		19.9		45	41	13	2	0									No		21,079	*
57		15	-	9	-	8	In		11.0		33	43	19	4	0	0								No		25,541	*
56		15	-	8	-	9	In		5.5		24	42	26	7	1	0	0							No		30,234	*
55		15	-	7	-	10	In		2.0		15	37	32	13	3	0	0							No		35,499	*
54		14	-	9	-	9	100.0	%	0.6		8	29	35	20	6	1	0	0						No		41,298	*
53		14	-	8	-	10	100.0		0.1		4	20	34	28	11	3	0	0						No		46,562	*
52		14	-	7	-	11	99.9		0.0		2	12	28	32	19	6	1	0	0					No		51,875	*
51		13	-	9	-	10	99.5		No		1	6	19	32	26	12	3	0	0					No		57,050	*
50		13	-	8	-	11	98.2		No		0	2	11	26	31	20	8	2	0	0				No		61,428	*
49		12	-	10	-	10	94.5		No		0	1	5	17	29	28	15	5	1	0	0			No		64,593	*
48		12	-	9	-	11	86.3		No		0	0	2	9	22	30	24	11	3	0	0			No		67,594	*
47		12	-	8	-	12	72.0		No			0	0	3	13	26	30	19	7	1	0	0		No		68,733	*
46		11	-	10	-	11	52.7		No			0	0	1	6	17	29	27	15	4	1	0		No		68,517	*
45		11	-	9	-	12	33.2		No				0	0	2	9	22	31	24	10	2	0	0	No		68,007	*
44		11	-	8	-	13	17.0		No					0	1	4	13	26	30	19	6	1	0	No		65,496	*
43		10	-	10	-	12	7.4		No					0	0	1	6	18	30	27	13	3	0	No		62,538	*
42		10	-	9	-	13	2.7		No						0	0	2	10	25	32	22	7	1	No		57,307	*
41		10	-	8	-	14	0.7		No						0	0	1	5	16	31	31	14	2	No		52,625	*
40		9	-	10	-	13	0.2		No							0	0	2	9	25	35	23	5	0.0	%	47,597	*
39		9	-	9	-	14	0.0		No								0	0	4	17	35	32	11	0.2		41,304	*
38		9	-	8	-	15	0.0		No								0	0	2	10	30	39	19	1.2		35,790	*
37		8	-	10	-	14	Out		No									0	1	5	23	43	28	3.3		30,111	*
36		8	-	9	-	15	Out		No									0	0	3	16	42	39	8.3		25,208	*
35		8	-	8	-	16	Out		No										0	1	10	40	50	15.4		20,189	*
34		7	-	10	-	15	Out		No										0	0	6	33	61	26.8		15,853	*
33		7	-	9	-	16	Out		No											0	3	26	70	38.4		12,859	*
32		7	-	8	-	17	Out		No											0	2	21	77	50.5		9,548	*
31		6	-	10	-	16	Out		No												1	14	85	63.1		7,099	*
30		6	-	9	-	17	Out		No												0	11	89	72.8		5,080	*
29		6	-	8	-	18	Out		No												0	8	92	79.9		3,729	*
28		5	-	10	-	17	Out		No													5	95	87.2		2,477	*
27		5	-	9	-	18	Out		No												0	3	97	91.0		1,767	*
26		5	-	8	-	19	Out		No													2	98	93.9		1,095	*
25		4	-	10	-	18	Out		No													1	99	96.4		713	*
24		4	-	9	-	19	Out		No													1	99	97.0		435	*
23		4	-	8	-	20	Out		No													0	100	99.3		292	*
3	-22						Out		No														100	Yes		446	*

Total:							53.5	%	3.8	%	7	7	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	7	3.0	%	1,276,344

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 3/8	100.0*	Lottery seed
Portland 1 Nashville 0	-1.6
Colorado 2 Orlando 1	+0.1
Seattle 1 Columbus 1	*-0.0
Los Angeles FC 3 Philadelphia 3	-0.0
Salt Lake 1 New York RB 1	-0.0
Dallas 2 Montreal 2	*-0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Minnesota vs New York RB	+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Atlanta vs Kansas City	-0.0-0.0+0.1
Toronto vs Nashville	-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Philadelphia vs San Jose	-0.0*-0.0+0.1
New York City vs Dallas	-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Columbus vs Salt Lake	-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Miami vs LA Galaxy	-0.0*-0.0+0.1

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/15	100.0*	Lottery seed
New England vs Portland	+1.2+0.4-1.5
Minnesota vs Montreal	+0.1-0.0-0.1
New York City vs Vancouver	-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Salt Lake vs New England	+0.1*-0.0-0.0
San Jose vs Kansas City	+0.0-0.1+0.0
Nashville vs Columbus	+0.1*-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26

74	-99						100
73		21	-	7	-	4	99	1
72		21	-	6	-	5	99	1
71		21	-	5	-	6	98	1	1
70		20	-	7	-	5	99	0	1
69		20	-	6	-	6	97	1	2
68		19	-	8	-	5	96	2	2
67		19	-	7	-	6	94	3	3		0
66		19	-	6	-	7	90	5	5		0
65		18	-	8	-	6	86	7	7		0
64		18	-	7	-	7	81	8	10		0
63		18	-	6	-	8	74	11	14	0	1
62		17	-	8	-	7	64	15	19	0	2		0
61		17	-	7	-	8	54	20	24	0	2		0		0
60		16	-	9	-	7	43	22	29	1	4	0	0		0
59		16	-	8	-	8	31	24	34	3	8	0	1		0
58		16	-	7	-	9	20	25	36	5	13	0	2		0
57		15	-	9	-	8	11	23	35	9	19	0	4	0	0		0
56		15	-	8	-	9	6	18	28	13	25	1	7	0	1		0		0
55		15	-	7	-	10	2	13	20	17	29	4	13	0	3		0		0
54		14	-	9	-	9	1	8	11	18	28	8	19	1	6	0	1		0		0
53		14	-	8	-	10	0	4	5	16	21	13	25	3	11	0	3		0		0
52		14	-	7	-	11	0	2	1	11	12	16	25	7	18	1	6	0	1		0	0
51		13	-	9	-	10		1	0	6	5	15	19	13	24	3	12	0	3	0	0	0
50		13	-	8	-	11		0	0	2	1	10	10	16	24	7	19	1	7	0	2	0	0
49		12	-	10	-	10		0		1	0	5	3	14	15	14	24	4	15	0	5	1	0	0
48		12	-	9	-	11		0		0	0	2	0	8	6	16	20	10	22	2	11	3	0	0
47		12	-	8	-	12				0		0	0	3	1	11	10	15	23	7	19	8	2	0	0
46		11	-	10	-	11				0		0	0	1	0	6	3	14	15	14	23	16	6	1	0	0	0
45		11	-	9	-	12						0		0	0	2	0	9	6	16	20	24	16	6	1	0	0	0
44		11	-	8	-	13								0		1	0	4	1	12	10	22	25	17	7	2	0	0	0
43		10	-	10	-	12								0		0		1	0	6	3	12	22	25	18	9	3	1	0	0
42		10	-	9	-	13										0		0	0	2	1	4	12	22	25	20	10	3	1	0	0
41		10	-	8	-	14										0		0		1	0	1	4	11	21	26	21	11	4	1	0
40		9	-	10	-	13												0		0	0	0	1	3	11	21	27	22	11	3	1	0
39		9	-	9	-	14														0	0	0	0	1	4	11	22	28	22	10	2	0
38		9	-	8	-	15														0			0	0	1	5	13	24	29	20	7	1
37		8	-	10	-	14																	0	0	0	1	5	16	28	29	16	3
36		8	-	9	-	15																			0	0	2	9	22	33	26	8
35		8	-	8	-	16																			0	0	1	3	14	31	36	15
34		7	-	10	-	15																					0	1	7	24	41	27
33		7	-	9	-	16																					0	0	3	17	42	38
32		7	-	8	-	17																					0	0	1	11	38	50
31		6	-	10	-	16																						0	0	5	32	63
30		6	-	9	-	17																							0	3	24	73
29		6	-	8	-	18																							0	2	18	80
28		5	-	10	-	17																								1	12	87
27		5	-	9	-	18																							0	0	9	91
26		5	-	8	-	19																								0	6	94
25		4	-	10	-	18																									4	96
24		4	-	9	-	19																									3	97
23		4	-	8	-	20																									1	99
3	-22																															100

Total:							4	3	4	3	5	3	5	3	5	3	5	3	5	3	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3