How are these numbers calculated?

## Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Week of 3/2 100.0* Chance in playoffs 100.0* Supporters Shield 100.0* Wooden Spoon 100.0* Average seed Philadelphia vs New England +6.7-4.4-10.0 +1.4-1.1-1.9 -1.5+0.9+2.4 +0.5-0.3-0.8 Kansas City vs New York City +0.4*-0.0-1.0 -0.0+0.1-0.0 +0.0+0.0-0.1 Vancouver vs Montreal +0.4*-0.0-1.0 -0.0+0.1-0.0 +0.0+0.0-0.1 Houston vs Atlanta +0.4*-0.0-1.0 -0.0+0.1-0.0 +0.0+0.0-0.1 Orlando vs DC -0.2+0.4-0.1 -0.0+0.1-0.0 Toronto vs Columbus -0.2+0.4-0.1 -0.0+0.1-0.0 Seattle vs Los Angeles FC -0.0+0.1-0.0 San Jose vs Minnesota -0.0+0.1-0.0 Dallas vs Salt Lake -0.0+0.1-0.0 LA Galaxy vs Portland -0.0+0.1-0.0 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Week of 3/9 100.0* Chance in playoffs 100.0* Supporters Shield 100.0* Wooden Spoon 100.0* Average seed New England vs Colorado -0.6+0.4+0.9 -0.0+0.1-0.1 -0.0+0.0+0.1 Orlando vs Minnesota -0.6+0.4+0.9 -0.0+0.1-0.1 -0.0+0.0+0.1 New York City vs LA Galaxy -0.6+0.4+0.9 -0.0+0.1-0.1 -0.0+0.0+0.1 Chicago vs Kansas City -0.6+0.4+0.9 -0.0+0.1-0.1 -0.0+0.0+0.1 New York vs Portland -0.6+0.4+0.9 -0.0+0.1-0.1 -0.0+0.0+0.1 Columbus vs Montreal -0.2+0.4-0.1 -0.0+0.1-0.0 Atlanta vs DC -0.2+0.4-0.1 -0.0+0.1-0.0 Houston vs Vancouver -0.0+0.1-0.0 Salt Lake vs Los Angeles FC -0.0+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

## What If

Chances based on how well the Philadelphia finish out the regular season.   Explain

 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 If finish: Chance in Supporters Chance will finish regular season at seed Wooden TP W - D - L playoffs Shield 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Spoon Count 78 -102 In 100.0 % 100 No 167,304 * 77 24 - 5 - 5 In 100.0 100 0 No 8,810 * 76 23 - 7 - 4 In 99.9 100 0 No 16,231 * 75 23 - 6 - 5 In 99.9 100 0 No 28,505 * 74 23 - 5 - 6 In 99.9 100 0 No 49,058 * 73 22 - 7 - 5 In 99.8 100 0 No 83,432 * 72 22 - 6 - 6 In 99.7 100 0 No 139,732 * 71 21 - 8 - 5 In 99.5 100 0 No 227,622 * 70 21 - 7 - 6 In 99.2 100 0 0 No 363,249 * 69 21 - 6 - 7 In 98.8 100 0 0 No 569,448 * 68 20 - 8 - 6 In 98.0 99 1 0 No 872,156 * 67 20 - 7 - 7 In 96.9 99 1 0 No 1,310,526 * 66 20 - 6 - 8 In 95.0 98 2 0 No 1,931,120 * 65 19 - 8 - 7 In 92.4 97 3 0 0 No 2,790,459 * 64 19 - 7 - 8 In 88.6 95 5 0 0 No 3,951,513 * 63 18 - 9 - 7 In 83.4 93 7 0 0 No 5,497,397 * 62 18 - 8 - 8 In 76.4 90 10 0 0 0 No 7,489,476 * 61 18 - 7 - 9 In 67.5 85 14 1 0 0 No 10,016,678 * 60 17 - 9 - 8 In 56.8 80 19 1 0 0 0 No 13,142,781 * 59 17 - 8 - 9 In 44.8 72 25 3 0 0 0 No 16,920,576 * 58 17 - 7 - 10 In 32.4 63 31 5 0 0 0 No 21,384,686 * 57 16 - 9 - 9 100.0 % 21.0 53 37 9 1 0 0 0 No 26,521,020 * 56 16 - 8 - 10 100.0 11.7 42 42 14 2 0 0 0 No 32,253,211 * 55 15 - 10 - 9 100.0 5.4 31 43 21 4 0 0 0 0 No 38,519,420 * 54 15 - 9 - 10 100.0 2.0 21 41 28 8 1 0 0 0 No 45,142,718 * 53 15 - 8 - 11 100.0 0.5 13 35 34 15 3 0 0 0 0 No 51,901,816 * 52 14 - 10 - 10 99.9 0.1 7 27 36 22 7 1 0 0 0 No 58,577,992 * 51 14 - 9 - 11 99.6 0.0 3 18 33 29 13 3 0 0 0 0 No 64,884,986 * 50 14 - 8 - 12 98.5 0.0 1 10 26 33 21 7 1 0 0 0 0 No 70,537,852 * 49 13 - 10 - 11 95.6 0.0 0 5 17 31 28 14 4 1 0 0 0 No 75,202,171 * 48 13 - 9 - 12 89.1 No 0 2 9 24 31 23 9 2 0 0 0 No 78,677,876 * 47 13 - 8 - 13 77.5 No 0 1 4 15 28 29 17 5 1 0 0 No 80,762,229 * 46 12 - 10 - 12 60.9 No 0 0 1 8 21 31 25 11 3 0 0 No 81,309,161 * 45 12 - 9 - 13 42.1 No 0 0 0 3 12 26 31 20 6 1 0 No 80,290,810 * 44 12 - 8 - 14 25.0 No 0 0 0 1 6 18 31 28 13 3 0 0.0 % 77,756,453 * 43 11 - 10 - 13 12.6 No 0 0 0 0 2 10 25 33 22 7 1 0.0 73,848,763 * 42 11 - 9 - 14 5.3 No 0 0 0 1 5 17 31 31 14 2 0.0 68,738,516 * 41 10 - 11 - 13 1.9 No 0 0 0 2 9 25 35 23 5 0.0 62,732,235 * 40 10 - 10 - 14 0.6 No 0 0 0 1 4 17 35 32 10 0.3 56,116,701 * 39 10 - 9 - 15 0.1 No 0 0 0 2 10 30 40 18 1.2 49,145,619 * 38 9 - 11 - 14 0.0 No 0 0 0 1 5 23 43 28 3.9 42,189,935 * 37 9 - 10 - 15 0.0 No 0 0 0 2 16 43 39 9.5 35,453,201 * 36 9 - 9 - 16 0.0 No 0 0 0 1 10 39 51 18.5 29,175,131 * 35 8 - 11 - 15 0.0 No 0 0 0 5 33 62 30.2 23,491,282 * 34 8 - 10 - 16 0.0 No 0 0 0 3 26 71 43.3 18,508,205 * 33 8 - 9 - 17 Out No 0 0 1 19 79 56.2 14,246,991 * 32 7 - 11 - 16 Out No 0 0 1 14 86 67.7 10,728,785 * 31 7 - 10 - 17 Out No 0 0 0 9 90 77.2 7,896,811 * 30 7 - 9 - 18 Out No 0 0 6 94 84.5 5,670,595 * 29 6 - 11 - 17 Out No 0 0 4 96 89.8 3,976,734 * 28 6 - 10 - 18 Out No 0 0 2 97 93.5 2,717,748 * 27 6 - 9 - 19 Out No 0 1 99 96.0 1,813,526 * 26 5 - 11 - 18 Out No 0 1 99 97.6 1,177,591 * 25 5 - 10 - 19 Out No 0 0 100 98.6 744,885 * 24 5 - 9 - 20 Out No 0 100 99.2 458,553 * 23 4 - 11 - 19 Out No 0 100 99.6 273,222 * 22 4 - 10 - 20 Out No 0 0 100 99.7 158,243 * 21 4 - 9 - 21 Out No 0 100 99.9 89,620 * 20 4 - 8 - 22 Out No 0 100 99.9 48,491 * 19 3 - 10 - 21 Out No 0 100 99.9 25,231 * 0 -18 Out No 100 100.0 182,148 * Total: 54.5 % 4.3 % 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 4.3 % 1,458,907,236

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

## Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

## Big Games

 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Week of 3/2 100.0* Lottery seed Philadelphia vs New England -1.1+0.7+1.6 Kansas City vs New York City -0.0-0.0+0.1 Houston vs Atlanta -0.0-0.0+0.1 Vancouver vs Montreal -0.0-0.0+0.1 Orlando vs DC +0.0-0.1+0.0 Toronto vs Columbus +0.0-0.1+0.0 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Week of 3/9 100.0* Lottery seed New York City vs LA Galaxy +0.1-0.1-0.1 Orlando vs Minnesota +0.1-0.1-0.1 Chicago vs Kansas City +0.1-0.1-0.1 New York vs Portland +0.1-0.1-0.1 New England vs Colorado +0.1-0.1-0.1 Columbus vs Montreal +0.0-0.1+0.0 Atlanta vs DC +0.0-0.1+0.0

## What If

 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 If finish: Chance will finish season at seed TP W - D - L 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 83 -102 100 82 26 - 4 - 4 100 0 79 -81 100 78 24 - 6 - 4 100 0 77 24 - 5 - 5 100 0 0 76 23 - 7 - 4 100 0 0 75 23 - 6 - 5 100 0 0 74 23 - 5 - 6 100 0 0 73 22 - 7 - 5 100 0 0 72 22 - 6 - 6 100 0 0 71 21 - 8 - 5 100 0 0 70 21 - 7 - 6 99 1 0 0 69 21 - 6 - 7 99 1 0 0 68 20 - 8 - 6 98 1 1 0 67 20 - 7 - 7 97 2 1 0 0 66 20 - 6 - 8 95 3 2 0 0 65 19 - 8 - 7 92 5 3 0 0 0 64 19 - 7 - 8 89 7 5 0 0 0 63 18 - 9 - 7 83 10 7 0 0 0 62 18 - 8 - 8 76 13 10 0 0 0 0 0 61 18 - 7 - 9 68 18 14 0 1 0 0 0 60 17 - 9 - 8 57 23 19 0 1 0 0 0 0 59 17 - 8 - 9 45 27 24 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 58 17 - 7 - 10 32 31 29 3 5 0 0 0 0 0 57 16 - 9 - 9 21 32 32 5 9 0 1 0 0 0 0 56 16 - 8 - 10 12 30 32 10 14 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 55 15 - 10 - 9 5 26 27 16 19 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 54 15 - 9 - 10 2 19 19 22 23 4 8 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 53 15 - 8 - 11 1 13 10 25 24 10 14 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 52 14 - 10 - 10 0 7 4 23 19 17 19 3 7 0 1 0 0 0 0 51 14 - 9 - 11 0 3 1 17 10 23 21 8 12 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 50 14 - 8 - 12 0 1 0 10 4 22 16 16 18 3 7 0 1 0 0 0 0 49 13 - 10 - 11 0 0 0 5 1 17 8 23 19 10 13 1 4 1 0 0 0 48 13 - 9 - 12 0 0 2 0 9 2 21 13 19 18 5 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 47 13 - 8 - 13 0 0 1 0 4 0 15 5 23 16 13 15 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 46 12 - 10 - 12 0 0 0 1 0 8 1 20 9 22 17 14 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 45 12 - 9 - 13 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 12 3 24 13 19 16 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 44 12 - 8 - 14 0 0 0 0 1 0 6 0 18 6 16 22 19 10 3 1 0 0 0 0 43 11 - 10 - 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 10 1 7 17 24 21 11 4 1 0 0 0 42 11 - 9 - 14 0 0 0 0 1 0 5 0 2 8 18 26 23 13 4 1 0 0 41 10 - 11 - 13 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 8 19 27 24 13 4 1 0 40 10 - 10 - 14 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 9 21 28 24 11 3 0 39 10 - 9 - 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 11 23 30 22 8 1 38 9 - 11 - 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 14 28 31 18 4 37 9 - 10 - 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 20 34 29 10 36 9 - 9 - 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 11 29 38 18 35 8 - 11 - 15 0 0 0 0 1 5 22 42 30 34 8 - 10 - 16 0 0 0 0 0 2 14 40 43 33 8 - 9 - 17 0 0 0 1 8 35 56 32 7 - 11 - 16 0 0 0 4 28 68 31 7 - 10 - 17 0 0 2 21 77 30 7 - 9 - 18 0 0 1 15 85 29 6 - 11 - 17 0 0 0 10 90 28 6 - 10 - 18 0 0 6 94 27 6 - 9 - 19 0 0 4 96 26 5 - 11 - 18 0 2 98 25 5 - 10 - 19 0 1 99 24 5 - 9 - 20 0 1 99 23 4 - 11 - 19 0 100 22 4 - 10 - 20 0 0 100 21 4 - 9 - 21 0 100 20 4 - 8 - 22 0 100 19 3 - 10 - 21 0 100 18 3 - 9 - 22 0 100 17 3 - 8 - 23 100 16 2 - 10 - 22 0 100 0 -15 100 Total: 4 5 4 5 4 5 4 5 4 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4