SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

New York Red Bulls Playoff Chances 2020 50/50

Plays at Minnesota, Tied Salt Lake 1-1, playoff odds down 0.9 to 62.9%

4 points 1-1-0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 3/8	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Supporters Shield	100.0*	Wooden Spoon	100.0*	Average seed
Salt Lake 1 New York RB 1	-1.9		-0.7		+0.1		-0.2
Colorado 2 Orlando 1	+0.5		-0.1				+0.0
New England 1 Chicago 1	+0.4
Los Angeles FC 3 Philadelphia 3	+0.2		*+0.1				*+0.0
Seattle 1 Columbus 1	*+0.2		+0.1				+0.0
DC United 2 Miami 1	*-0.1
Toronto 1 New York City 0	*-0.1
Dallas 2 Montreal 2	*+0.1						*+0.0
Atlanta 2 Cincinnati 1			-0.1		-0.1
Kansas City 4 Houston 0			-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Minnesota vs New York RB	-6.3-2.0+7.8		-1.7-0.7+2.2		+0.9+0.2-1.1		-0.6-0.2+0.7
Miami vs LA Galaxy	-0.8*+0.2+0.6						-0.1*+0.0+0.0
New York City vs Dallas	-0.7+0.2+0.5						-0.1+0.0+0.0
Toronto vs Nashville	-0.7*+0.2+0.5						-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Philadelphia vs San Jose	-0.6*+0.1+0.5						-0.1*+0.0+0.0
Columbus vs Salt Lake	-0.6*+0.1+0.5						-0.1*+0.0+0.0
Atlanta vs Kansas City	-0.5+0.2+0.3						-0.1+0.0+0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/15	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Supporters Shield	100.0*	Wooden Spoon	100.0*	Average seed
Miami vs New York RB	-7.1-1.6+8.3		-1.6-0.7+2.1		+1.0+0.1-1.1		-0.6-0.2+0.8
New York City vs Vancouver	-0.7+0.2+0.6		*+0.0+0.1-0.1				-0.1*+0.0+0.0
Nashville vs Columbus	+0.5*+0.2-0.7						+0.0+0.0-0.1
Minnesota vs Montreal	+0.6*+0.1-0.6						+0.1*+0.0-0.1
New England vs Portland	-0.7+0.3+0.5						-0.1+0.0+0.0
Salt Lake vs New England	+0.5*+0.2-0.6						+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Chicago vs Atlanta	-0.3+0.5*-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the New York RB finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Supporters		Chance will finish regular season at seed													Wooden
TP		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		Shield		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	Spoon		Count

74	-100						In		Yes		100													No		404	*
73		21	-	6	-	5	In		98.5	%	100	0												No		202	*
72		21	-	5	-	6	In		99.4		100													No		319	*
71		20	-	7	-	5	In		98.3		100	0												No		464	*
70		20	-	6	-	6	In		97.5		99	1												No		728	*
69		19	-	8	-	5	In		96.4		99	1												No		1,132	*
68		19	-	7	-	6	In		96.4		99	1												No		1,594	*
67		19	-	6	-	7	In		92.6		97	3	0											No		2,326	*
66		18	-	8	-	6	In		89.3		96	4	0											No		3,231	*
65		18	-	7	-	7	In		85.8		95	5	0											No		4,381	*
64		18	-	6	-	8	In		80.0		93	7	0											No		5,937	*
63		17	-	8	-	7	In		72.7		90	10	0											No		7,744	*
62		17	-	7	-	8	In		62.0		84	15	1	0										No		10,246	*
61		16	-	9	-	7	In		51.8		79	20	1	0										No		13,303	*
60		16	-	8	-	8	In		40.3		72	25	3	0										No		16,819	*
59		16	-	7	-	9	In		28.4		63	32	5	0	0									No		20,808	*
58		15	-	9	-	8	In		18.5		54	37	9	1	0									No		25,182	*
57		15	-	8	-	9	In		10.1		43	41	14	2	0									No		30,356	*
56		15	-	7	-	10	In		4.7		32	43	20	4	0	0	0							No		35,597	*
55		14	-	9	-	9	In		1.9		23	42	27	8	1	0	0							No		41,111	*
54		14	-	8	-	10	In		0.5		15	36	33	14	3	0	0							No		46,842	*
53		14	-	7	-	11	100.0	%	0.1		8	28	35	21	6	1	0	0						No		51,765	*
52		13	-	9	-	10	100.0		0.0		4	19	34	28	12	3	0	0	0					No		57,112	*
51		13	-	8	-	11	99.9		No		2	11	27	32	20	7	1	0	0					No		61,262	*
50		12	-	10	-	10	99.4		No		0	5	18	31	27	13	4	1	0	0				No		64,956	*
49		12	-	9	-	11	97.8		No		0	2	10	24	31	22	9	2	0	0		0		No		67,547	*
48		12	-	8	-	12	93.7		No		0	1	4	15	28	29	16	5	1	0	0			No		68,545	*
47		11	-	10	-	11	84.3		No		0	0	1	8	20	30	25	12	3	0	0	0		No		69,127	*
46		11	-	9	-	12	68.8		No		0	0	0	3	11	25	30	21	8	2	0	0	0	No		67,581	*
45		11	-	8	-	13	49.3		No			0	0	1	5	16	28	28	16	5	1	0		No		65,245	*
44		10	-	10	-	12	29.8		No				0	0	2	8	20	30	25	12	3	0	0	No		61,971	*
43		10	-	9	-	13	15.2		No				0	0	0	3	12	25	30	21	7	1	0	No		57,759	*
42		10	-	8	-	14	6.2		No					0	0	1	5	17	30	29	15	4	0	No		52,667	*
41		9	-	10	-	13	2.1		No						0	0	2	9	23	33	24	9	1	0.0	%	47,377	*
40		9	-	9	-	14	0.5		No							0	1	4	15	30	32	16	3	0.0		41,717	*
39		9	-	8	-	15	0.2		No							0	0	1	8	24	35	25	6	0.3		36,018	*
38		8	-	10	-	14	0.0		No								0	0	4	15	34	35	12	1.3		30,423	*
37		8	-	9	-	15	0.0		No								0	0	1	9	29	40	20	3.7		24,904	*
36		8	-	8	-	16	Out		No									0	0	5	21	43	30	8.7		20,729	*
35		7	-	10	-	15	Out		No										0	2	14	41	43	18.0		16,003	*
34		7	-	9	-	16	Out		No									0	0	1	8	38	53	28.3		12,536	*
33		7	-	8	-	17	Out		No										0	0	5	31	64	41.8		9,446	*
32		6	-	10	-	16	Out		No											0	3	25	73	52.5		7,004	*
31		6	-	9	-	17	Out		No											0	1	18	80	64.8		5,225	*
30		6	-	8	-	18	Out		No												1	15	84	72.3		3,579	*
29		5	-	10	-	17	Out		No												0	9	91	81.2		2,448	*
28		5	-	9	-	18	Out		No												0	6	94	87.8		1,667	*
27		5	-	8	-	19	Out		No													4	96	91.1		1,133	*
26		4	-	10	-	18	Out		No													3	97	96.0		682	*
25		4	-	9	-	19	Out		No													2	98	96.8		469	*
24		4	-	8	-	20	Out		No													1	99	98.0		256	*
4	-23						Out		No														100	99.8		465	*

Total:							62.9	%	4.7	%	10	10	9	9	9	8	8	7	7	7	6	5	5	2.3	%	1,276,344

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 3/8	100.0*	Lottery seed
Salt Lake 1 New York RB 1	+0.4
New England 1 Chicago 1	-0.1
Colorado 2 Orlando 1	-0.0
Los Angeles FC 3 Philadelphia 3	*-0.0
Seattle 1 Columbus 1	-0.0
Dallas 2 Montreal 2	*-0.0
Atlanta 2 Cincinnati 1	+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Minnesota vs New York RB	+1.2+0.4-1.5
Atlanta vs Kansas City	+0.1-0.1-0.0
Toronto vs Nashville	+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Miami vs LA Galaxy	+0.1*-0.0-0.1
New York City vs Dallas	+0.1*-0.0-0.0
Philadelphia vs San Jose	+0.1*-0.0-0.0
Columbus vs Salt Lake	+0.1*-0.0-0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/15	100.0*	Lottery seed
Miami vs New York RB	+1.3+0.3-1.6
Minnesota vs Montreal	-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Nashville vs Columbus	-0.0*-0.0+0.1
New York City vs Vancouver	+0.1-0.0-0.0
New England vs Portland	+0.1*-0.0-0.0
Salt Lake vs New England	-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Cincinnati vs Toronto	+0.0-0.1+0.0
Chicago vs Atlanta	+0.0-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26

74	-100						100
73		21	-	6	-	5	99	1	0
72		21	-	5	-	6	99	1
71		20	-	7	-	5	98	1	0
70		20	-	6	-	6	98	2	1
69		19	-	8	-	5	96	2	1
68		19	-	7	-	6	96	3	1
67		19	-	6	-	7	93	5	3		0
66		18	-	8	-	6	89	7	4		0
65		18	-	7	-	7	86	10	5		0
64		18	-	6	-	8	80	13	7	0	0
63		17	-	8	-	7	73	17	10	0	0
62		17	-	7	-	8	62	22	15	0	1		0
61		16	-	9	-	7	52	27	19	1	1		0
60		16	-	8	-	8	40	32	23	2	3	0	0
59		16	-	7	-	9	28	35	28	4	5	0	0		0
58		15	-	9	-	8	19	35	29	7	9	0	1		0
57		15	-	8	-	9	10	33	29	13	13	1	2	0	0
56		15	-	7	-	10	5	28	24	19	18	2	4	0	0	0	0		0
55		14	-	9	-	9	2	21	17	25	21	6	8	0	1		0		0
54		14	-	8	-	10	1	14	9	27	21	12	12	1	3	0	0		0
53		14	-	7	-	11	0	8	4	25	17	19	17	4	6	0	1	0	0		0
52		13	-	9	-	10	0	4	1	18	9	24	18	10	11	1	3	0	0		0	0
51		13	-	8	-	11		2	0	11	3	24	14	18	16	4	7	0	1	0	0	0
50		12	-	10	-	10		0	0	5	1	18	7	24	17	11	12	1	4	0	1	0	0
49		12	-	9	-	11		0	0	2	0	10	2	22	11	20	16	6	8	0	2	0	0		0
48		12	-	8	-	12		0		1	0	4	0	15	4	24	14	15	14	3	5	1	0	0
47		11	-	10	-	11		0		0		1	0	7	1	19	7	23	15	9	11	4	1	0	0
46		11	-	9	-	12		0		0		0		3	0	11	2	22	10	19	16	10	4	1	0	0	0
45		11	-	8	-	13				0		0		1	0	5	0	15	4	24	13	17	13	6	2	0	0	0
44		10	-	10	-	12						0		0		2	0	8	1	19	7	16	20	16	8	3	1	0	0
43		10	-	9	-	13						0		0		0		3	0	12	2	9	18	23	19	10	3	1	0	0
42		10	-	8	-	14								0		0		1	0	5	0	3	10	19	25	21	12	4	1	0	0
41		9	-	10	-	13										0		0		2	0	0	3	9	19	26	22	12	4	1	0	0
40		9	-	9	-	14												0		1	0	0	1	3	10	20	26	23	13	4	1	0
39		9	-	8	-	15												0		0		0	0	1	3	10	21	27	23	11	3	0
38		8	-	10	-	14														0			0	0	1	4	12	23	29	21	8	1
37		8	-	9	-	15														0			0	0	0	1	5	15	28	31	17	4
36		8	-	8	-	16																			0	0	2	8	21	33	27	9
35		7	-	10	-	15																				0	0	3	13	30	36	18
34		7	-	9	-	16																					0	1	6	23	41	28
33		7	-	8	-	17																					0	0	3	15	40	42
32		6	-	10	-	16																						0	1	9	37	52
31		6	-	9	-	17																						0	0	5	30	65
30		6	-	8	-	18																							0	3	25	72
29		5	-	10	-	17																								1	18	81
28		5	-	9	-	18																								1	12	88
27		5	-	8	-	19																								0	9	91
26		4	-	10	-	18																									4	96
25		4	-	9	-	19																									3	97
24		4	-	8	-	20																									2	98
22	-23																															100
21		3	-	8	-	21																									2	98
4	-20																															100

Total:							5	6	4	6	4	5	4	5	3	5	3	5	3	5	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2