SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

New England Revolution Playoff Chances 2020 50/50

Tied Chicago 1-1, playoff odds down 1.1 to 47.3%

1 points 0-1-1

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 3/8	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Supporters Shield	100.0*	Wooden Spoon	100.0*	Average seed
New England 1 Chicago 1	-2.0		-0.4		+0.3		-0.2
Colorado 2 Orlando 1	+0.5						+0.0
Atlanta 2 Cincinnati 1	-0.2		-0.1
Salt Lake 1 New York RB 1	+0.2						+0.0
Dallas 2 Montreal 2	+0.2						+0.0
Los Angeles FC 3 Philadelphia 3	*+0.2						*+0.0
DC United 2 Miami 1	*-0.1
Toronto 1 New York City 0	*-0.1
Seattle 1 Columbus 1	*+0.1						+0.0
Kansas City 4 Houston 0			-0.1
San Jose 2 Minnesota 5			-0.1
LA Galaxy 0 Vancouver 1					+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Philadelphia vs San Jose	-0.7*+0.1+0.6						-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Toronto vs Nashville	-0.7*+0.1+0.6				-0.1*-0.0+0.1		-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Columbus vs Salt Lake	-0.7*+0.2+0.5						-0.1*+0.0+0.1
New York City vs Dallas	-0.6*+0.2+0.5				+0.1*+0.0-0.1		-0.1*+0.0+0.0
Miami vs LA Galaxy	-0.6*+0.1+0.5						-0.1*+0.0+0.0
Atlanta vs Kansas City	-0.5*+0.0+0.5						-0.1*+0.0+0.0
Minnesota vs New York RB	+0.4+0.3-0.6						+0.0+0.0-0.1

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/15	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Supporters Shield	100.0*	Wooden Spoon	100.0*	Average seed
New England vs Portland	+8.3-2.2-6.7		+1.1-0.4-0.8		-2.2+0.3+2.0		+0.7-0.2-0.6
Salt Lake vs New England	-6.6-2.1+8.3		-0.8-0.4+1.1		+2.0+0.3-2.2		-0.6-0.2+0.7
New York City vs Vancouver	-0.7*+0.2+0.6						-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Nashville vs Columbus	+0.6*+0.1-0.7						+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Minnesota vs Montreal	+0.5*+0.1-0.6						+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Miami vs New York RB	-0.3+0.4*-0.0
Chicago vs Atlanta	-0.2+0.3*-0.0
Cincinnati vs Toronto					+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Colorado vs Houston					-0.1*-0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the New England finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Supporters		Chance will finish regular season at seed													Wooden
TP		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		Shield		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	Spoon		Count

71	-97						In		Yes		100													No		424	*
70		21	-	6	-	5	In		98.0	%	99	1												No		196	*
69		21	-	5	-	6	In		98.2		100	0												No		326	*
68		20	-	7	-	5	In		96.5		99	1												No		485	*
67		20	-	6	-	6	In		93.7		97	3												No		695	*
66		19	-	8	-	5	In		89.4		97	3												No		1,098	*
65		19	-	7	-	6	In		84.8		95	5	0											No		1,569	*
64		19	-	6	-	7	In		79.5		92	8	0											No		2,274	*
63		18	-	8	-	6	In		72.8		88	11	0											No		3,124	*
62		18	-	7	-	7	In		61.8		83	16	1	0										No		4,350	*
61		18	-	6	-	8	In		52.2		79	19	2	0										No		5,753	*
60		17	-	8	-	7	In		41.1		72	25	3	0										No		7,981	*
59		17	-	7	-	8	In		29.5		63	32	5	0										No		10,276	*
58		16	-	9	-	7	In		19.3		54	37	9	1	0									No		13,433	*
57		16	-	8	-	8	In		10.4		43	42	14	2	0									No		16,756	*
56		16	-	7	-	9	In		4.9		32	44	20	4	0	0								No		20,874	*
55		15	-	9	-	8	In		1.9		23	41	27	8	1	0								No		24,893	*
54		15	-	8	-	9	In		0.5		14	36	33	14	3	0	0							No		30,234	*
53		15	-	7	-	10	100.0	%	0.1		8	28	36	21	7	1	0	0						No		35,662	*
52		14	-	9	-	9	100.0		0.0		4	19	34	28	12	3	0	0						No		40,972	*
51		14	-	8	-	10	99.9		No		2	11	27	32	20	7	1	0	0					No		46,927	*
50		14	-	7	-	11	99.4		No		1	5	18	31	28	14	4	1	0					No		51,909	*
49		13	-	9	-	10	97.8		No		0	2	10	24	31	22	9	2	0	0				No		56,904	*
48		13	-	8	-	11	93.3		No		0	1	4	15	28	29	17	6	1	0	0			No		61,534	*
47		12	-	10	-	10	84.1		No		0	0	2	7	20	30	25	12	3	0	0			No		64,983	*
46		12	-	9	-	11	68.6		No			0	0	3	11	25	30	21	8	2	0	0		No		67,858	*
45		12	-	8	-	12	49.1		No			0	0	1	5	15	28	28	16	5	1	0	0	No		68,616	*
44		11	-	10	-	11	29.7		No				0	0	2	8	20	30	25	12	3	0	0	No		69,409	*
43		11	-	9	-	12	14.9		No					0	0	3	11	25	30	21	7	1	0	No		67,970	*
42		11	-	8	-	13	5.9		No					0	0	1	5	16	30	29	15	3	0	No		65,200	*
41		10	-	10	-	12	2.0		No						0	0	2	9	23	32	24	9	1	0.0	%	62,211	*
40		10	-	9	-	13	0.6		No							0	1	4	15	30	32	16	3	0.0		57,423	*
39		10	-	8	-	14	0.1		No							0	0	1	8	24	35	25	7	0.3		52,823	*
38		9	-	10	-	13	0.0		No								0	0	4	16	34	34	12	1.2		47,048	*
37		9	-	9	-	14	0.0		No								0	0	1	9	28	41	21	3.9		41,647	*
36		9	-	8	-	15	0.0		No								0	0	0	5	21	43	30	8.9		35,637	*
35		8	-	10	-	14	Out		No										0	2	14	42	42	16.8		30,177	*
34		8	-	9	-	15	Out		No										0	1	8	38	53	27.6		25,230	*
33		8	-	8	-	16	Out		No										0	0	5	32	63	39.8		20,158	*
32		7	-	10	-	15	Out		No										0	0	3	25	72	52.4		16,234	*
31		7	-	9	-	16	Out		No											0	1	18	81	64.6		12,545	*
30		7	-	8	-	17	Out		No											0	1	13	86	74.0		9,503	*
29		6	-	10	-	16	Out		No												0	9	90	81.7		7,064	*
28		6	-	9	-	17	Out		No												0	6	93	87.6		5,183	*
27		6	-	8	-	18	Out		No												0	4	96	92.1		3,541	*
26		5	-	10	-	17	Out		No													3	97	94.8		2,529	*
25		5	-	9	-	18	Out		No													1	99	97.2		1,714	*
24		5	-	8	-	19	Out		No													1	99	97.9		1,127	*
23		4	-	10	-	18	Out		No													0	100	98.9		696	*
1	-22						Out		No														100	99.7		1,169	*

Total:							47.3	%	2.1	%	5	6	7	7	7	8	8	8	8	9	9	9	10	5.5	%	1,276,344

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 3/8	100.0*	Lottery seed
New England 1 Chicago 1	+0.4
Colorado 2 Orlando 1	-0.0
Atlanta 2 Cincinnati 1	+0.0
Salt Lake 1 New York RB 1	-0.0
Dallas 2 Montreal 2	*-0.0
Los Angeles FC 3 Philadelphia 3	*-0.0
Seattle 1 Columbus 1	*-0.0
DC United 2 Miami 1	+0.0
Toronto 1 New York City 0	+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Philadelphia vs San Jose	+0.1-0.0-0.0
Columbus vs Salt Lake	+0.1*-0.0-0.0
Atlanta vs Kansas City	+0.1*-0.0-0.0
Toronto vs Nashville	+0.1*-0.0-0.0
Minnesota vs New York RB	-0.0-0.0+0.1
New York City vs Dallas	+0.1-0.0-0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/15	100.0*	Lottery seed
New England vs Portland	-1.6+0.4+1.3
Salt Lake vs New England	+1.2+0.4-1.5
Nashville vs Columbus	-0.0*-0.0+0.1
New York City vs Vancouver	+0.1*-0.0-0.0
Minnesota vs Montreal	-0.1*-0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26

71	-97						100
70		21	-	6	-	5	98	2	1
69		21	-	5	-	6	98	2	0
68		20	-	7	-	5	96	2	1
67		20	-	6	-	6	94	3	3
66		19	-	8	-	5	89	7	3
65		19	-	7	-	6	85	10	5		0
64		19	-	6	-	7	79	13	8		0
63		18	-	8	-	6	73	16	11	0	0
62		18	-	7	-	7	62	21	16	0	1		0
61		18	-	6	-	8	52	27	19	1	2	0	0
60		17	-	8	-	7	41	31	23	2	3		0
59		17	-	7	-	8	30	34	28	3	5	0	0
58		16	-	9	-	7	19	34	29	7	9	0	1		0
57		16	-	8	-	8	10	32	30	12	13	1	2	0	0
56		16	-	7	-	9	5	27	25	18	18	2	4	0	0		0
55		15	-	9	-	8	2	21	18	24	22	5	8	0	1	0	0
54		15	-	8	-	9	1	13	10	26	22	11	13	1	3	0	0		0
53		15	-	7	-	10	0	8	4	24	17	18	18	3	6	0	1	0	0		0
52		14	-	9	-	9	0	4	1	18	10	24	19	9	11	1	3	0	0		0
51		14	-	8	-	10		2	0	11	4	24	15	17	16	4	7	0	1	0	0	0
50		14	-	7	-	11		1	0	5	1	17	8	23	17	10	12	1	4	0	1	0
49		13	-	9	-	10		0		2	0	10	2	22	12	19	17	5	8	0	2	0	0
48		13	-	8	-	11		0		1		4	0	15	5	23	15	14	14	3	5	1	0	0
47		12	-	10	-	10		0		0		2	0	7	1	19	8	22	16	9	11	4	1	0	0
46		12	-	9	-	11				0		0		3	0	11	2	22	11	19	16	11	4	1	0	0	0
45		12	-	8	-	12				0		0		1	0	5	0	15	5	23	14	18	12	5	1	0	0
44		11	-	10	-	11						0		0		2	0	8	1	19	8	17	21	15	7	2	0	0	0
43		11	-	9	-	12								0		0		3	0	11	2	9	19	23	18	9	3	1	0	0	0
42		11	-	8	-	13								0		0		1	0	5	0	3	10	20	25	21	11	4	1	0	0
41		10	-	10	-	12										0		0		2	0	1	3	10	20	26	22	12	4	1	0	0
40		10	-	9	-	13												0		1	0	0	1	3	10	20	27	23	12	4	1	0
39		10	-	8	-	14												0		0	0	0	0	1	3	11	21	27	23	11	3	0
38		9	-	10	-	13														0		0	0	0	1	4	12	24	29	21	8	1
37		9	-	9	-	14														0				0	0	1	5	15	28	30	17	4
36		9	-	8	-	15														0				0	0	0	2	8	21	33	27	9
35		8	-	10	-	14																				0	0	3	13	31	36	17
34		8	-	9	-	15																				0	0	1	7	24	41	28
33		8	-	8	-	16																						0	3	16	41	40
32		7	-	10	-	15																						0	1	9	37	52
31		7	-	9	-	16																						0	0	5	30	65
30		7	-	8	-	17																							0	2	23	74
29		6	-	10	-	16																							0	1	17	82
28		6	-	9	-	17																								1	12	88
27		6	-	8	-	18																								0	8	92
26		5	-	10	-	17																								0	5	95
25		5	-	9	-	18																									3	97
24		5	-	8	-	19																									2	98
23		4	-	10	-	18																									1	99
22		4	-	9	-	19																									1	99
1	-21																															100

Total:							2	3	2	4	3	4	3	4	3	4	3	5	3	5	3	3	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5