SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Holy capitalism Batman,
we’re in the Wall Street Journal

Nashville SC Playoff Chances 2020

Lost to Portland 0-1, Plays at Toronto, playoff odds down 8 to 29.1%

0 points 0-0-2

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 3/8	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Supporters Shield	100.0*	Wooden Spoon	100.0*	Average seed
Portland 1 Nashville 0	-5.1		-0.5		+1.7		-0.5
Colorado 2 Orlando 1	-0.5						-0.0
Los Angeles FC 3 Philadelphia 3	+0.4						+0.0
Seattle 1 Columbus 1	+0.4						+0.0
Salt Lake 1 New York RB 1	+0.4						+0.0
Dallas 2 Montreal 2	+0.4						+0.0
LA Galaxy 0 Vancouver 1	-0.1				+0.1
Kansas City 4 Houston 0	-0.1
San Jose 2 Minnesota 5			-0.1		-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Toronto vs Nashville	-3.8+0.2+10.3		-0.2-0.0+0.7		+1.8-0.5-4.3		-0.3+0.0+0.9
Columbus vs Salt Lake	+0.4*-0.0-0.9						+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Philadelphia vs San Jose	+0.3*+0.0-0.8						+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Miami vs LA Galaxy	+0.4*-0.0-0.8						+0.0-0.0-0.1
New York City vs Dallas	+0.4*+0.1-0.7				+0.3-0.1-0.3		+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Minnesota vs New York RB	-0.3+0.3+0.5
Atlanta vs Kansas City	+0.2*+0.0-0.6
Houston vs Seattle	*-0.0+0.3-0.3				+0.2-0.1-0.3
Vancouver vs Colorado	-0.2+0.3+0.2				+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Cincinnati vs DC United					+0.1-0.1-0.1
Orlando vs Chicago					+0.1-0.1-0.1

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/15	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Supporters Shield	100.0*	Wooden Spoon	100.0*	Average seed
Nashville vs Columbus	+6.0-3.6-7.3		+0.3-0.2-0.3		-3.0+1.5+4.0		+0.5-0.3-0.7
Salt Lake vs New England	-0.5+0.4+0.8						-0.0+0.0+0.1
New England vs Portland	+0.4*+0.0-0.9				+0.1*-0.0-0.1		+0.0*-0.0-0.1
New York City vs Vancouver	+0.4*-0.0-0.8				+0.2-0.1-0.3		+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Minnesota vs Montreal	-0.3+0.2+0.5
Seattle vs Dallas	-0.2+0.4*-0.0
San Jose vs Kansas City	-0.2+0.3*+0.1				+0.2-0.1-0.3
Colorado vs Houston	*-0.1+0.3-0.2				-0.1*+0.0+0.3
Chicago vs Atlanta					+0.1*-0.0-0.2
Miami vs New York RB					+0.2-0.1-0.2
Cincinnati vs Toronto					+0.1*-0.0-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Nashville finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Supporters		Chance will finish regular season at seed													Wooden
TP		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		Shield		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	Spoon		Count

71	-96						In		Yes		100													No		437	*
70		21	-	7	-	4	In		98.3	%	98	2												No		60	*
69		21	-	6	-	5	In		98.3		99	1												No		119	*
68		21	-	5	-	6	In		94.2		96	4												No		190	*
67		20	-	7	-	5	In		92.8		96	4												No		362	*
66		20	-	6	-	6	In		92.2		95	5												No		553	*
65		20	-	5	-	7	In		86.6		93	7	0	0										No		919	*
64		19	-	7	-	6	In		80.3		89	11	0											No		1,448	*
63		19	-	6	-	7	In		73.9		86	13	1											No		2,134	*
62		18	-	8	-	6	In		65.7		80	19	1	0										No		3,362	*
61		18	-	7	-	7	In		55.0		74	23	3	0										No		5,107	*
60		18	-	6	-	8	In		42.8		64	31	5	0										No		7,393	*
59		17	-	8	-	7	In		30.5		54	37	8	1	0									No		10,696	*
58		17	-	7	-	8	In		20.2		44	41	13	2	0									No		14,852	*
57		17	-	6	-	9	In		11.7		34	44	19	3	0	0								No		20,846	*
56		16	-	8	-	8	In		5.6		24	43	25	7	1	0								No		27,552	*
55		16	-	7	-	9	100.0	%	2.2		15	38	33	12	2	0	0	0						No		36,744	*
54		15	-	9	-	8	100.0		0.6		8	30	36	20	5	1	0	0						No		47,885	*
53		15	-	8	-	9	100.0		0.1		4	20	35	27	11	2	0	0	0					No		60,473	*
52		15	-	7	-	10	99.9		0.0		2	12	29	33	18	5	1	0	0					No		75,096	*
51		14	-	9	-	9	99.7		0.0		1	6	20	33	26	11	3	0	0					No		91,593	*
50		14	-	8	-	10	98.7		No		0	2	12	27	31	20	7	1	0	0	0			No		109,689	*
49		14	-	7	-	11	95.5		No		0	1	5	18	30	28	14	4	1	0				No		129,362	*
48		13	-	9	-	10	88.3		No		0	0	2	9	23	31	23	9	2	0	0			No		148,471	*
47		13	-	8	-	11	75.0		No			0	0	4	14	27	30	18	6	1	0	0		No		167,196	*
46		13	-	7	-	12	56.1		No			0	0	1	6	19	30	27	13	4	0	0	0	No		184,759	*
45		12	-	9	-	11	35.6		No				0	0	2	10	23	31	23	9	2	0	0	No		200,141	*
44		12	-	8	-	12	19.1		No			0	0	0	1	4	14	28	30	17	5	1	0	No		212,667	*
43		11	-	10	-	11	8.3		No					0	0	1	7	20	31	27	12	2	0	No		220,380	*
42		11	-	9	-	12	2.9		No						0	0	3	11	26	32	20	6	1	No		224,636	*
41		11	-	8	-	13	0.9		No						0	0	1	5	18	32	29	12	2	0.0	%	224,882	*
40		10	-	10	-	12	0.2		No							0	0	2	10	26	35	21	5	0.0		218,567	*
39		10	-	9	-	13	0.0		No							0	0	1	5	19	36	31	9	0.2		211,273	*
38		10	-	8	-	14	0.0		No								0	0	2	11	31	39	17	1.0		196,946	*
37		9	-	10	-	13	Out		No									0	1	6	24	43	26	3.4		180,101	*
36		9	-	9	-	14	Out		No									0	0	3	17	43	37	8.2		161,632	*
35		9	-	8	-	15	Out		No									0	0	1	11	40	48	16.3		142,117	*
34		8	-	10	-	14	Out		No										0	0	6	34	59	27.3		122,393	*
33		8	-	9	-	15	Out		No										0	0	3	27	69	39.6		102,958	*
32		8	-	8	-	16	Out		No											0	2	21	77	52.9		84,160	*
31		7	-	10	-	15	Out		No											0	1	15	84	64.0		67,810	*
30		7	-	9	-	16	Out		No											0	0	11	89	74.5		53,144	*
29		7	-	8	-	17	Out		No												0	7	93	82.4		40,379	*
28		6	-	10	-	16	Out		No												0	5	95	88.0		30,366	*
27		6	-	9	-	17	Out		No												0	3	97	92.2		21,827	*
26		6	-	8	-	18	Out		No													2	98	94.8		15,518	*
25		5	-	10	-	17	Out		No													1	99	96.9		10,827	*
24		5	-	9	-	18	Out		No													1	99	98.4		7,177	*
23		5	-	8	-	19	Out		No													0	100	98.9		4,685	*
22		4	-	10	-	18	Out		No													0	100	99.2		2,941	*
0	-21						Out		No														100	99.8		4,571	*

Total:							29.1	%	0.6	%	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	12	14	18	9.5	%	3,909,396

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 3/8	100.0*	Lottery seed
Portland 1 Nashville 0	+0.9
Seattle 1 Columbus 1	-0.1
Dallas 2 Montreal 2	-0.0
Colorado 2 Orlando 1	+0.0
Salt Lake 1 New York RB 1	-0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Toronto vs Nashville	+0.7-0.1-1.9
Columbus vs Salt Lake	-0.0-0.0+0.1
Philadelphia vs San Jose	-0.0-0.0+0.1

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/15	100.0*	Lottery seed
Nashville vs Columbus	-1.1+0.7+1.4
New England vs Portland	-0.0-0.0+0.1

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26

71	-96						100
70		21	-	7	-	4	98		2
69		21	-	6	-	5	98	1	1
68		21	-	5	-	6	94	2	4
67		20	-	7	-	5	93	4	4
66		20	-	6	-	6	92	3	5
65		20	-	5	-	7	87	6	7		0		0
64		19	-	7	-	6	80	9	11		0
63		19	-	6	-	7	74	12	13	0	1
62		18	-	8	-	6	66	14	19	0	1		0
61		18	-	7	-	7	55	19	23	0	3		0
60		18	-	6	-	8	43	21	30	1	5		0
59		17	-	8	-	7	31	24	34	2	8	0	1	0	0
58		17	-	7	-	8	20	24	36	5	13	0	2		0
57		17	-	6	-	9	12	22	35	9	18	0	3	0	0		0
56		16	-	8	-	8	6	18	30	13	24	1	7	0	1		0
55		16	-	7	-	9	2	13	21	17	29	4	12	0	2	0	0		0		0
54		15	-	9	-	8	1	8	12	18	28	8	19	1	5	0	1		0		0
53		15	-	8	-	9	0	4	5	15	22	13	25	2	11	0	2		0		0	0
52		15	-	7	-	10	0	2	1	10	13	16	26	7	17	1	5	0	1	0	0	0
51		14	-	9	-	9	0	1	0	6	5	15	20	12	24	3	11	0	3		0	0
50		14	-	8	-	10		0	0	2	1	10	10	16	24	8	19	1	7	0	1	0	0	0
49		14	-	7	-	11		0	0	1	0	5	4	14	17	14	24	4	13	0	4	1	0
48		13	-	9	-	10		0		0	0	2	1	9	7	16	21	10	21	2	9	2	0	0
47		13	-	8	-	11				0	0	0	0	4	2	12	12	16	23	7	17	6	1	0	0	0
46		13	-	7	-	12				0		0	0	1	0	6	4	15	16	14	23	15	5	1	0	0	0
45		12	-	9	-	11						0		0	0	2	1	9	7	17	20	23	14	5	1	0	0	0
44		12	-	8	-	12				0		0		0	0	1	0	4	1	13	11	22	24	15	6	2	0	0	0	0
43		11	-	10	-	11								0		0		1	0	7	4	13	23	25	17	8	2	1	0	0	0
42		11	-	9	-	12										0	0	0	0	3	1	4	12	22	25	19	10	3	1	0	0
41		11	-	8	-	13										0		0	0	1	0	1	4	12	21	26	21	11	3	1	0	0
40		10	-	10	-	12												0		0	0	0	1	4	11	21	27	22	11	3	0	0
39		10	-	9	-	13												0		0		0	0	1	4	11	22	28	21	10	2	0
38		10	-	8	-	14														0		0	0	0	1	4	13	25	29	20	7	1
37		9	-	10	-	13																	0	0	0	1	6	16	28	29	16	3
36		9	-	9	-	14																		0	0	0	2	8	22	33	26	8
35		9	-	8	-	15																			0	0	0	3	13	31	36	16
34		8	-	10	-	14																				0	0	1	7	24	41	27
33		8	-	9	-	15																				0	0	0	3	16	41	40
32		8	-	8	-	16																					0	0	1	9	36	53
31		7	-	10	-	15																					0	0	0	5	31	64
30		7	-	9	-	16																							0	3	23	74
29		7	-	8	-	17																							0	1	16	82
28		6	-	10	-	16																							0	1	11	88
27		6	-	9	-	17																								0	8	92
26		6	-	8	-	18																								0	5	95
25		5	-	10	-	17																								0	3	97
24		5	-	9	-	18																								0	2	98
23		5	-	8	-	19																									1	99
22		4	-	10	-	18																									1	99
21		4	-	9	-	19																									0	100
20		4	-	8	-	20																									0	100
19		3	-	10	-	19																									0	100
18		3	-	9	-	20																									0	100
0	-17																															100

Total:							1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	2	3	3	4	3	4	4	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	7	8	9