SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

What might
today bring

Minnesota United FC Playoff Chances 2020 50/50

Plays New York RB, Beat San Jose 5-2, playoff odds up 8 to 68.8%

6 points 2-0-0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 3/8	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Supporters Shield	100.0*	Wooden Spoon	100.0*	Average seed
San Jose 2 Minnesota 5	+8.4		+2.4		-1.1		+0.8
Colorado 2 Orlando 1	-0.6		-0.1				-0.1
Los Angeles FC 3 Philadelphia 3	+0.2		+0.1				+0.0
Portland 1 Nashville 0	-0.2
Dallas 2 Montreal 2	*+0.2		+0.1				+0.0
Seattle 1 Columbus 1	*+0.1		+0.1				+0.0
Salt Lake 1 New York RB 1	*+0.1		*+0.1				*+0.0
LA Galaxy 0 Vancouver 1	*-0.1
Kansas City 4 Houston 0	*-0.1
Atlanta 2 Cincinnati 1			-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Minnesota vs New York RB	+7.2-1.7-5.9		+3.2-1.0-2.5		-0.6+0.1+0.6		+0.7-0.2-0.6
Columbus vs Salt Lake	+0.5+0.2-0.7						+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Miami vs LA Galaxy	+0.5*+0.2-0.7						+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Philadelphia vs San Jose	+0.5*+0.2-0.7						+0.0*+0.0-0.1
New York City vs Dallas	+0.4+0.2-0.6						+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Atlanta vs Kansas City	+0.5*+0.0-0.5						+0.0+0.0-0.1
Toronto vs Nashville	+0.4*+0.2-0.5						+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Vancouver vs Colorado	-0.2+0.3*-0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/15	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Supporters Shield	100.0*	Wooden Spoon	100.0*	Average seed
Minnesota vs Montreal	+7.4-1.9-6.0		+3.2-1.0-2.4		-0.6+0.1+0.6		+0.7-0.2-0.6
Salt Lake vs New England	-0.7*+0.1+0.6						-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Nashville vs Columbus	-0.6*+0.1+0.5						-0.1*+0.0+0.0
New York City vs Vancouver	+0.4+0.3-0.7						+0.0+0.0-0.1
New England vs Portland	+0.4*+0.2-0.6						+0.0+0.0-0.1
San Jose vs Kansas City	-0.2+0.4*-0.1
Colorado vs Houston			-0.2*+0.1+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Minnesota finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Supporters		Chance will finish regular season at seed													Wooden
TP		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		Shield		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	Spoon		Count

74	-102						In		Yes		100													No		922	*
73		20	-	7	-	5	In		99.4	%	100	0												No		469	*
72		20	-	6	-	6	In		99.3		100	0												No		721	*
71		19	-	8	-	5	In		99.2		100	0												No		1,050	*
70		19	-	7	-	6	In		98.5		99	1												No		1,505	*
69		19	-	6	-	7	In		97.4		99	1												No		2,193	*
68		18	-	8	-	6	In		95.6		98	2	0											No		3,160	*
67		18	-	7	-	7	In		94.5		97	3												No		4,443	*
66		18	-	6	-	8	In		90.6		95	5	0											No		6,056	*
65		17	-	8	-	7	In		86.3		93	7	0											No		8,024	*
64		17	-	7	-	8	In		80.0		90	10	0											No		10,303	*
63		16	-	9	-	7	In		73.4		86	14	1	0										No		13,135	*
62		16	-	8	-	8	In		64.6		81	18	1	0										No		16,726	*
61		16	-	7	-	9	In		53.5		74	24	2	0										No		20,929	*
60		15	-	9	-	8	In		42.7		66	29	5	0	0									No		25,384	*
59		15	-	8	-	9	In		30.5		56	36	7	1	0									No		30,296	*
58		15	-	7	-	10	In		19.9		46	40	12	2	0									No		35,393	*
57		14	-	9	-	9	In		10.9		34	43	19	4	0	0								No		41,288	*
56		14	-	8	-	10	In		5.2		24	43	25	7	1	0								No		46,553	*
55		14	-	7	-	11	In		2.1		16	37	32	12	2	0	0							No		51,640	*
54		13	-	9	-	10	100.0	%	0.6		9	30	35	19	5	1	0	0						No		57,288	*
53		13	-	8	-	11	100.0		0.1		5	21	34	27	11	2	0	0						No		61,253	*
52		12	-	10	-	10	99.9		0.0		2	12	29	32	18	6	1	0	0					No		64,934	*
51		12	-	9	-	11	99.6		No		1	6	20	31	26	12	3	0	0					No		67,557	*
50		12	-	8	-	12	98.3		No		0	2	12	26	30	20	7	2	0	0				No		68,229	*
49		11	-	10	-	11	94.9		No		0	1	5	17	29	28	14	4	1	0	0			No		69,236	*
48		11	-	9	-	12	87.1		No		0	0	2	9	22	30	23	10	2	0	0			No		67,814	*
47		11	-	8	-	13	72.7		No			0	1	4	13	26	29	19	7	1	0	0		No		65,606	*
46		10	-	10	-	12	53.9		No			0	0	1	6	18	29	27	14	4	1	0	0	No		62,110	*
45		10	-	9	-	13	33.9		No				0	0	2	9	22	30	24	10	2	0	0	No		57,449	*
44		10	-	8	-	14	17.7		No					0	1	4	13	27	30	19	6	1	0	No		52,628	*
43		9	-	10	-	13	7.8		No					0	0	1	6	18	30	27	13	3	0	No		47,418	*
42		9	-	9	-	14	2.8		No						0	0	2	10	25	32	22	7	1	No		41,400	*
41		9	-	8	-	15	0.8		No							0	1	5	16	31	30	14	2	No		35,802	*
40		8	-	10	-	14	0.2		No							0	0	2	9	24	36	23	6	0.0	%	30,270	*
39		8	-	9	-	15	0.0		No								0	1	4	17	35	33	11	0.2		25,097	*
38		8	-	8	-	16	0.0		No								0	0	2	10	31	39	18	1.1		20,252	*
37		7	-	10	-	15	Out		No									0	1	5	22	43	29	3.4		16,376	*
36		7	-	9	-	16	Out		No										0	3	15	42	40	8.5		12,527	*
35		7	-	8	-	17	Out		No										0	1	10	40	49	16.0		9,613	*
34		6	-	10	-	16	Out		No										0	0	6	33	60	25.8		7,150	*
33		6	-	9	-	17	Out		No											0	3	27	70	38.4		5,181	*
32		6	-	8	-	18	Out		No											0	1	21	78	51.0		3,615	*
31		5	-	10	-	17	Out		No												1	13	86	66.0		2,533	*
30		5	-	9	-	18	Out		No												0	10	89	72.8		1,791	*
29		5	-	8	-	19	Out		No												0	7	92	81.1		1,168	*
28		4	-	10	-	18	Out		No												0	4	95	87.8		703	*
27		4	-	9	-	19	Out		No													3	97	90.1		445	*
26		4	-	8	-	20	Out		No													2	98	96.1		281	*
25		4	-	7	-	21	Out		No													1	99	95.4		153	*
6	-24						Out		No														100	99.6		275	*

Total:							68.8	%	8.0	%	13	11	10	9	9	8	7	7	6	6	5	4	3	1.2	%	1,276,344

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 3/8	100.0*	Lottery seed
San Jose 2 Minnesota 5	-1.5
Colorado 2 Orlando 1	+0.1
Los Angeles FC 3 Philadelphia 3	-0.0
Seattle 1 Columbus 1	-0.0
Dallas 2 Montreal 2	-0.0
Salt Lake 1 New York RB 1	*-0.0
Portland 1 Nashville 0	*+0.0
LA Galaxy 0 Vancouver 1	*+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Minnesota vs New York RB	-1.4+0.4+1.2
Columbus vs Salt Lake	-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Atlanta vs Kansas City	-0.1-0.0+0.1
Miami vs LA Galaxy	-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Philadelphia vs San Jose	-0.0*-0.0+0.1
New York City vs Dallas	-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Houston vs Seattle	+0.0-0.1+0.0
Toronto vs Nashville	-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Vancouver vs Colorado	*+0.0-0.1+0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/15	100.0*	Lottery seed
Minnesota vs Montreal	-1.4+0.4+1.2
Salt Lake vs New England	+0.1*-0.0-0.1
New York City vs Vancouver	-0.0-0.1+0.1
Nashville vs Columbus	+0.1*-0.0-0.1
New England vs Portland	-0.0*-0.0+0.1
San Jose vs Kansas City	*+0.0-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26

74	-102						100
73		20	-	7	-	5	99	0	0
72		20	-	6	-	6	99	0	0
71		19	-	8	-	5	99	0	0
70		19	-	7	-	6	99	1	1
69		19	-	6	-	7	97	1	1
68		18	-	8	-	6	96	2	2		0
67		18	-	7	-	7	94	3	3
66		18	-	6	-	8	91	5	5		0
65		17	-	8	-	7	86	7	7	0	0
64		17	-	7	-	8	80	10	10	0	0
63		16	-	9	-	7	73	12	14	0	1		0
62		16	-	8	-	8	65	16	18	0	1		0
61		16	-	7	-	9	54	20	23	1	2		0
60		15	-	9	-	8	43	23	28	1	5	0	0		0
59		15	-	8	-	9	30	25	33	3	7	0	1		0
58		15	-	7	-	10	20	26	35	5	12	0	2		0
57		14	-	9	-	9	11	23	34	9	18	1	3	0	0	0	0
56		14	-	8	-	10	5	19	29	14	24	1	7	0	1		0
55		14	-	7	-	11	2	14	20	18	28	4	12	0	2		0		0
54		13	-	9	-	10	1	9	11	19	27	8	19	1	5	0	1		0		0
53		13	-	8	-	11	0	5	5	16	20	14	24	3	11	0	2	0	0		0
52		12	-	10	-	10	0	2	1	11	12	17	25	7	17	1	6	0	1		0	0
51		12	-	9	-	11		1	0	6	4	16	18	13	23	3	12	0	3	0	0	0
50		12	-	8	-	12		0	0	2	1	11	10	16	22	8	19	1	7	0	2	0	0
49		11	-	10	-	11		0	0	1	0	5	3	14	15	14	23	4	14	0	4	1	0	0
48		11	-	9	-	12		0		0	0	2	0	9	6	16	20	11	21	2	10	2	0	0	0
47		11	-	8	-	13				0		1	0	4	1	12	10	16	22	7	18	8	2	0	0
46		10	-	10	-	12				0		0	0	1	0	6	3	15	15	14	22	16	6	1	0	0	0
45		10	-	9	-	13						0		0	0	2	0	9	6	17	19	24	16	6	1	0	0	0
44		10	-	8	-	14								0		1	0	4	1	12	10	21	24	17	7	2	0	0	0
43		9	-	10	-	13								0		0	0	1	0	6	3	11	22	25	19	9	3	1	0	0
42		9	-	9	-	14										0		0	0	2	1	3	12	21	25	20	11	4	1	0	0
41		9	-	8	-	15												0		1	0	1	3	11	20	26	22	12	4	1	0
40		8	-	10	-	14												0		0	0	0	1	3	10	20	27	22	12	4	1	0
39		8	-	9	-	15														0		0	0	1	4	11	21	28	22	11	3	0
38		8	-	8	-	16														0				0	1	4	13	24	30	20	7	1
37		7	-	10	-	15																		0	0	1	5	15	29	30	16	3
36		7	-	9	-	16																	0		0	0	2	8	22	33	27	8
35		7	-	8	-	17																					0	3	14	30	36	16
34		6	-	10	-	16																					0	1	7	24	42	26
33		6	-	9	-	17																					0	0	3	16	42	38
32		6	-	8	-	18																						0	1	10	38	51
31		5	-	10	-	17																						0	1	5	28	66
30		5	-	9	-	18																							0	3	24	73
29		5	-	8	-	19																								1	17	81
28		4	-	10	-	18																								1	11	88
27		4	-	9	-	19																								0	9	90
26		4	-	8	-	20																									4	96
25		4	-	7	-	21																									5	95
24		3	-	9	-	20																										100
23		3	-	8	-	21																									3	97
6	-22																															100

Total:							8	5	7	4	6	4	6	4	5	3	5	3	5	3	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	1