SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Houston Dynamo Playoff Chances 2020 50/50

Plays Seattle, Lost to Kansas City 0-4, playoff odds down 7.5 to 42.4%

1 points 0-1-1

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 3/8	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Supporters Shield	100.0*	Wooden Spoon	100.0*	Average seed
Kansas City 4 Houston 0	-7.2		-1.2		+1.5		-0.6
Colorado 2 Orlando 1	-0.7		-0.1				-0.1
Seattle 1 Columbus 1	+0.2						*+0.0
Portland 1 Nashville 0	-0.2
Salt Lake 1 New York RB 1	*+0.2						+0.0
San Jose 2 Minnesota 5	-0.2
Dallas 2 Montreal 2	*+0.2		+0.1				+0.0
LA Galaxy 0 Vancouver 1	*-0.1
Los Angeles FC 3 Philadelphia 3	*+0.1						*+0.0
Atlanta 2 Cincinnati 1			-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Houston vs Seattle	+8.7-2.0-7.1		+1.1-0.4-0.8		-2.2+0.3+1.9		+0.8-0.2-0.6
New York City vs Dallas	+0.6*+0.1-0.7						+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Miami vs LA Galaxy	+0.5+0.3-0.7						+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Philadelphia vs San Jose	+0.6*+0.1-0.6						+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Toronto vs Nashville	+0.6*+0.0-0.6						+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Columbus vs Salt Lake	+0.5*+0.2-0.7						+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Atlanta vs Kansas City	+0.5*+0.2-0.7						+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Minnesota vs New York RB	-0.6*+0.1+0.6						-0.1*+0.0+0.0
Vancouver vs Colorado	-0.2+0.3*-0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/15	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Supporters Shield	100.0*	Wooden Spoon	100.0*	Average seed
Colorado vs Houston	-7.2-2.0+8.7		-0.8-0.4+1.1		+1.9+0.4-2.1		-0.6-0.2+0.8
Nashville vs Columbus	-0.7*+0.1+0.6						-0.1*+0.0+0.1
New York City vs Vancouver	+0.6*+0.2-0.7						+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Salt Lake vs New England	-0.7*+0.2+0.6						-0.1*+0.0+0.1
New England vs Portland	+0.6*+0.0-0.6						+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Minnesota vs Montreal	-0.7*+0.2+0.5						-0.1*+0.0+0.0
San Jose vs Kansas City	-0.2+0.2*+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Houston finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Supporters		Chance will finish regular season at seed													Wooden
TP		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		Shield		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	Spoon		Count

72	-97						In		Yes		100													No		294	*
71		21	-	7	-	4	In		99.2	%	99	1												No		127	*
70		21	-	6	-	5	In		98.9		99	1												No		174	*
69		21	-	5	-	6	In		96.6		98	2												No		321	*
68		20	-	7	-	5	In		95.3		97	3												No		467	*
67		20	-	6	-	6	In		94.5		98	2												No		714	*
66		19	-	8	-	5	In		90.2		95	5												No		1,078	*
65		19	-	7	-	6	In		86.7		93	7	0											No		1,582	*
64		19	-	6	-	7	In		81.1		89	10	0											No		2,244	*
63		18	-	8	-	6	In		72.3		85	15	1	0										No		3,093	*
62		18	-	7	-	7	In		64.9		80	19	1	0										No		4,313	*
61		18	-	6	-	8	In		53.4		72	25	3	0										No		6,041	*
60		17	-	8	-	7	In		41.6		64	31	5	0										No		7,869	*
59		17	-	7	-	8	In		30.8		54	37	8	1	0									No		10,354	*
58		16	-	9	-	7	In		19.9		44	41	13	2	0	0								No		13,268	*
57		16	-	8	-	8	In		11.3		34	42	20	4	0	0								No		16,824	*
56		16	-	7	-	9	In		5.0		22	42	26	8	1	0								No		20,917	*
55		15	-	9	-	8	In		1.9		14	36	33	14	3	0	0							No		25,312	*
54		15	-	8	-	9	In		0.5		8	28	36	20	6	1	0							No		30,409	*
53		15	-	7	-	10	100.0	%	0.1		4	19	34	28	12	3	0	0						No		35,727	*
52		14	-	9	-	9	99.9		0.0		2	11	28	32	20	7	1	0	0					No		41,034	*
51		14	-	8	-	10	99.4		0.0		1	5	19	31	27	13	3	1	0	0				No		46,797	*
50		14	-	7	-	11	97.9		No		0	2	10	25	31	21	9	2	0	0	0			No		51,969	*
49		13	-	9	-	10	93.8		No		0	1	5	16	29	28	16	5	1	0	0			No		56,786	*
48		13	-	8	-	11	84.7		No		0	0	2	8	21	30	25	12	3	0	0	0		No		61,211	*
47		12	-	10	-	10	69.4		No			0	0	3	12	25	29	21	8	2	0	0		No		64,528	*
46		12	-	9	-	11	49.9		No			0	0	1	5	16	28	28	16	5	1	0		No		67,406	*
45		12	-	8	-	12	30.5		No				0	0	2	8	21	30	25	11	3	0	0	No		68,952	*
44		11	-	10	-	11	15.6		No					0	0	3	12	25	31	20	7	1	0	No		69,110	*
43		11	-	9	-	12	6.5		No					0	0	1	5	17	29	29	15	3	0	No		67,410	*
42		11	-	8	-	13	2.2		No						0	0	2	9	23	32	24	8	1	No		65,415	*
41		10	-	10	-	12	0.6		No						0	0	1	4	15	30	32	15	3	0.0	%	62,389	*
40		10	-	9	-	13	0.1		No							0	0	2	8	24	36	24	6	0.0		58,070	*
39		10	-	8	-	14	0.0		No								0	0	4	16	34	34	12	0.3		52,993	*
38		9	-	10	-	13	0.0		No								0	0	1	9	29	41	20	1.2		47,672	*
37		9	-	9	-	14	Out		No									0	0	5	22	43	29	3.6		41,558	*
36		9	-	8	-	15	Out		No									0	0	2	14	42	41	8.7		35,541	*
35		8	-	10	-	14	Out		No										0	1	9	38	52	16.8		30,111	*
34		8	-	9	-	15	Out		No										0	0	5	32	63	27.2		25,046	*
33		8	-	8	-	16	Out		No											0	3	25	72	39.9		20,065	*
32		7	-	10	-	15	Out		No											0	1	19	80	52.1		16,119	*
31		7	-	9	-	16	Out		No											0	1	14	85	63.4		12,524	*
30		7	-	8	-	17	Out		No												0	9	90	73.5		9,482	*
29		6	-	10	-	16	Out		No											0	0	7	93	81.4		7,114	*
28		6	-	9	-	17	Out		No												0	4	95	85.9		5,199	*
27		6	-	8	-	18	Out		No													2	98	92.4		3,506	*
26		5	-	10	-	17	Out		No													2	98	93.8		2,508	*
25		5	-	9	-	18	Out		No													1	99	96.4		1,710	*
24		5	-	8	-	19	Out		No													1	99	97.2		1,156	*
23		4	-	10	-	18	Out		No													0	100	98.3		714	*
22		4	-	9	-	19	Out		No													0	100	99.3		401	*
1	-21						Out		No														100	99.7		720	*

Total:							42.4	%	2.1	%	4	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	12	5.4	%	1,276,344

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 3/8	100.0*	Lottery seed
Kansas City 4 Houston 0	+1.3
Colorado 2 Orlando 1	+0.1
Seattle 1 Columbus 1	-0.0
Portland 1 Nashville 0	*+0.0
Salt Lake 1 New York RB 1	*-0.0
Dallas 2 Montreal 2	-0.0
San Jose 2 Minnesota 5	+0.0
LA Galaxy 0 Vancouver 1	*+0.0
Los Angeles FC 3 Philadelphia 3	*-0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Houston vs Seattle	-1.5+0.4+1.3
Atlanta vs Kansas City	-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Toronto vs Nashville	-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Miami vs LA Galaxy	-0.0*-0.1+0.1
New York City vs Dallas	-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Columbus vs Salt Lake	-0.0-0.0+0.1
Minnesota vs New York RB	+0.1*-0.0-0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/15	100.0*	Lottery seed
Colorado vs Houston	+1.3+0.4-1.5
Minnesota vs Montreal	+0.1*-0.0-0.0
Nashville vs Columbus	+0.1*-0.0-0.0
New York City vs Vancouver	-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Salt Lake vs New England	+0.1*-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26

72	-97						100
71		21	-	7	-	4	99		1
70		21	-	6	-	5	99	1	1
69		21	-	5	-	6	97	1	2
68		20	-	7	-	5	95	2	3
67		20	-	6	-	6	95	3	2
66		19	-	8	-	5	90	4	5
65		19	-	7	-	6	87	6	7		0
64		19	-	6	-	7	81	8	10		0
63		18	-	8	-	6	72	12	15	0	1		0
62		18	-	7	-	7	65	15	19	0	1		0
61		18	-	6	-	8	53	19	25	0	3		0
60		17	-	8	-	7	42	22	30	1	5		0
59		17	-	7	-	8	31	24	35	2	8	0	1		0
58		16	-	9	-	7	20	24	36	5	13	0	2		0		0
57		16	-	8	-	8	11	22	34	8	19	1	4		0		0
56		16	-	7	-	9	5	17	28	14	25	2	8	0	1		0
55		15	-	9	-	8	2	12	19	17	29	4	14	0	3	0	0		0
54		15	-	8	-	9	1	8	11	18	27	8	20	1	6	0	1		0
53		15	-	7	-	10	0	4	4	15	21	13	25	3	12	0	3		0		0
52		14	-	9	-	9	0	2	1	10	11	16	25	7	19	1	7	0	1		0	0
51		14	-	8	-	10	0	1	0	5	4	14	19	12	25	3	13	0	3	0	1	0	0
50		14	-	7	-	11		0	0	2	1	9	9	15	23	8	20	1	9	0	2	0	0	0
49		13	-	9	-	10		0		1	0	4	3	13	15	14	24	4	16	0	5	1	0	0
48		13	-	8	-	11		0		0		2	0	7	6	15	19	10	23	2	12	3	0	0	0
47		12	-	10	-	10				0		0	0	3	1	11	10	15	22	7	20	8	2	0	0
46		12	-	9	-	11				0		0	0	1	0	5	3	13	14	14	24	18	7	1	0	0	0	0
45		12	-	8	-	12						0		0	0	2	0	7	5	15	19	25	17	7	2	0	0	0
44		11	-	10	-	11								0		0	0	3	1	11	9	21	25	18	8	2	0	0	0
43		11	-	9	-	12								0		0		1	0	5	3	11	21	25	19	10	3	1	0	0
42		11	-	8	-	13										0		0	0	2	1	3	11	21	25	21	11	4	1	0	0
41		10	-	10	-	12										0		0		1	0	1	3	10	20	26	22	12	4	1	0	0
40		10	-	9	-	13												0		0	0	0	1	3	10	20	27	23	12	4	1	0
39		10	-	8	-	14														0		0	0	1	3	10	21	28	23	10	3	0
38		9	-	10	-	13														0			0	0	1	4	12	24	29	21	8	1
37		9	-	9	-	14																		0	0	1	5	16	28	30	16	4
36		9	-	8	-	15																		0	0	0	2	8	21	33	27	9
35		8	-	10	-	14																			0	0	0	3	13	31	36	17
34		8	-	9	-	15																				0	0	1	7	24	41	27
33		8	-	8	-	16																					0	0	3	16	41	40
32		7	-	10	-	15																					0	0	1	10	37	52
31		7	-	9	-	16																						0	0	5	31	63
30		7	-	8	-	17																						0	0	3	23	74
29		6	-	10	-	16																							0	1	17	81
28		6	-	9	-	17																								1	14	86
27		6	-	8	-	18																								0	7	92
26		5	-	10	-	17																								0	6	94
25		5	-	9	-	18																								0	4	96
24		5	-	8	-	19																									3	97
23		4	-	10	-	18																									2	98
22		4	-	9	-	19																									1	99
21		4	-	8	-	20																									0	100
20		4	-	7	-	21																									1	99
1	-19																															100

Total:							2	2	3	2	3	2	4	3	4	3	4	3	5	3	5	5	5	5	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5