SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

FC Dallas Playoff Chances 2020 50/50

Tied Montreal 2-2, playoff odds down 2.6 to 58.1%

4 points 1-1-0

Add your own league!

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 3/8	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Supporters Shield	100.0*	Wooden Spoon	100.0*	Average seed
Dallas 2 Montreal 2	-2.0		-0.8		+0.2		-0.2
Colorado 2 Orlando 1	-0.7						-0.1
Salt Lake 1 New York RB 1	+0.3		+0.1				+0.0
Los Angeles FC 3 Philadelphia 3	+0.2						*+0.0
LA Galaxy 0 Vancouver 1	-0.2
San Jose 2 Minnesota 5	-0.2		-0.1
Seattle 1 Columbus 1	*+0.2						+0.0
Portland 1 Nashville 0	*-0.1
Kansas City 4 Houston 0	*-0.1
Atlanta 2 Cincinnati 1			-0.1
New England 1 Chicago 1			+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
New York City vs Dallas	-6.5-2.0+8.1		-1.6-0.6+2.1		+1.0+0.1-1.1		-0.6-0.2+0.7
Columbus vs Salt Lake	+0.7*+0.0-0.7						+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Toronto vs Nashville	+0.5*+0.2-0.7						+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Miami vs LA Galaxy	+0.4+0.3-0.7						+0.0+0.0-0.1
Atlanta vs Kansas City	+0.5*+0.2-0.6						+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Philadelphia vs San Jose	+0.4+0.3-0.7						+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Minnesota vs New York RB	-0.5*+0.1+0.4						-0.1+0.0+0.0
Houston vs Seattle	*-0.1+0.4-0.2		*+0.0+0.1-0.1
Cincinnati vs DC United			*+0.0+0.1-0.1

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/15	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Supporters Shield	100.0*	Wooden Spoon	100.0*	Average seed
Seattle vs Dallas	-7.2-1.9+8.7		-1.6-0.7+2.1		+1.0+0.2-1.1		-0.6-0.2+0.8
Salt Lake vs New England	-0.8+0.3+0.6						-0.1*+0.0+0.1
New England vs Portland	+0.6*+0.2-0.7						+0.1*+0.0-0.1
New York City vs Vancouver	+0.6*+0.2-0.7						+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Nashville vs Columbus	-0.7+0.3+0.5						-0.1*+0.0+0.0
Minnesota vs Montreal	-0.7+0.2+0.5		-0.1+0.1*-0.0				-0.1+0.0+0.0
San Jose vs Kansas City	-0.3+0.4*-0.0				+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Colorado vs Houston	*-0.1+0.4-0.2		-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Cincinnati vs Toronto			*+0.0+0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Dallas finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Supporters		Chance will finish regular season at seed													Wooden
TP		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		Shield		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	Spoon		Count

73	-100						In		99.8	%	100													No		588	*
72		21	-	5	-	6	In		99.4		100	0												No		322	*
71		20	-	7	-	5	In		98.4		100	0												No		446	*
70		20	-	6	-	6	In		97.1		99	1												No		722	*
69		19	-	8	-	5	In		97.5		99	1												No		1,126	*
68		19	-	7	-	6	In		94.4		97	3												No		1,565	*
67		19	-	6	-	7	In		93.7		97	3	0											No		2,163	*
66		18	-	8	-	6	In		89.5		95	5	0											No		3,130	*
65		18	-	7	-	7	In		86.0		93	7	0											No		4,363	*
64		18	-	6	-	8	In		80.8		90	10	0											No		6,042	*
63		17	-	8	-	7	In		71.6		85	14	1	0										No		7,952	*
62		17	-	7	-	8	In		62.9		79	19	1	0										No		10,316	*
61		16	-	9	-	7	In		51.4		72	25	3	0	0									No		13,247	*
60		16	-	8	-	8	In		40.4		64	31	5	0										No		16,859	*
59		16	-	7	-	9	In		28.6		54	37	8	1	0									No		20,661	*
58		15	-	9	-	8	In		18.4		44	41	13	2	0	0								No		25,432	*
57		15	-	8	-	9	In		10.2		33	43	20	4	0									No		30,408	*
56		15	-	7	-	10	In		4.8		23	42	26	7	1	0	0							No		35,661	*
55		14	-	9	-	9	In		1.8		14	36	33	13	3	0	0							No		41,147	*
54		14	-	8	-	10	100.0	%	0.5		8	28	35	21	6	1	0	0						No		46,366	*
53		14	-	7	-	11	100.0		0.1		4	19	34	28	12	3	0	0						No		51,876	*
52		13	-	9	-	10	99.9		0.0		2	11	28	32	20	6	1	0	0					No		57,371	*
51		13	-	8	-	11	99.5		No		1	6	19	31	27	13	3	1	0	0				No		61,473	*
50		12	-	10	-	10	98.0		No		0	2	11	25	31	21	8	2	0	0				No		64,759	*
49		12	-	9	-	11	94.1		No		0	1	5	16	28	29	16	5	1	0	0			No		67,226	*
48		12	-	8	-	12	84.9		No		0	0	2	8	21	30	24	12	3	0	0			No		68,602	*
47		11	-	10	-	11	70.4		No		0	0	0	3	12	25	30	20	8	2	0	0	0	No		68,849	*
46		11	-	9	-	12	50.5		No				0	1	5	16	28	28	16	5	1	0	0	No		67,841	*
45		11	-	8	-	13	31.2		No				0	0	2	8	21	30	25	11	3	0	0	No		65,504	*
44		10	-	10	-	12	15.9		No					0	0	3	12	26	30	20	7	1	0	No		61,901	*
43		10	-	9	-	13	6.5		No					0	0	1	5	17	30	28	14	3	0	No		57,687	*
42		10	-	8	-	14	2.2		No						0	0	2	9	24	33	23	8	1	No		53,035	*
41		9	-	10	-	13	0.6		No						0	0	1	4	15	31	31	15	3	0.0	%	47,338	*
40		9	-	9	-	14	0.1		No							0	0	2	8	24	35	24	6	0.1		41,485	*
39		9	-	8	-	15	0.0		No								0	0	4	16	34	34	11	0.3		35,632	*
38		8	-	10	-	14	0.0		No								0	0	1	9	29	40	20	1.2		30,221	*
37		8	-	9	-	15	Out		No									0	1	5	22	44	30	3.8		24,957	*
36		8	-	8	-	16	Out		No									0	0	2	15	42	41	8.6		20,464	*
35		7	-	10	-	15	Out		No									0	0	1	9	38	52	17.1		16,088	*
34		7	-	9	-	16	Out		No											0	5	31	63	28.4		12,471	*
33		7	-	8	-	17	Out		No											0	3	26	71	40.1		9,767	*
32		6	-	10	-	16	Out		No											0	2	19	80	52.3		7,126	*
31		6	-	9	-	17	Out		No												1	14	86	64.3		5,151	*
30		6	-	8	-	18	Out		No												0	10	90	74.1		3,792	*
29		5	-	10	-	17	Out		No												0	6	93	81.2		2,508	*
28		5	-	9	-	18	Out		No													4	96	87.1		1,720	*
27		5	-	8	-	19	Out		No												0	2	98	92.7		1,088	*
26		4	-	10	-	18	Out		No													2	98	93.7		698	*
25		4	-	9	-	19	Out		No													1	99	97.3		443	*
24		4	-	8	-	20	Out		No													0	100	96.8		278	*
23		3	-	10	-	19	Out		No													1	99	97.1		172	*
4	-22						Out		No														100	99.3		305	*

Total:							58.1	%	4.7	%	9	9	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	7	7	7	6	2.3	%	1,276,344

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 3/8	100.0*	Lottery seed
Dallas 2 Montreal 2	+0.4
Colorado 2 Orlando 1	+0.1
Salt Lake 1 New York RB 1	-0.0
Los Angeles FC 3 Philadelphia 3	*-0.0
San Jose 2 Minnesota 5	+0.0
Seattle 1 Columbus 1	*-0.0
LA Galaxy 0 Vancouver 1	*+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
New York City vs Dallas	+1.2+0.4-1.5
Columbus vs Salt Lake	-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Atlanta vs Kansas City	-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Minnesota vs New York RB	+0.1-0.0-0.0
Houston vs Seattle	*+0.0-0.1+0.0
Miami vs LA Galaxy	-0.0-0.0+0.1
Toronto vs Nashville	-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Philadelphia vs San Jose	-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Vancouver vs Colorado	*+0.0-0.1+0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/15	100.0*	Lottery seed
Seattle vs Dallas	+1.3+0.4-1.6
Minnesota vs Montreal	+0.1-0.0-0.0
Salt Lake vs New England	+0.1-0.0-0.1
New York City vs Vancouver	-0.1*-0.0+0.1
New England vs Portland	-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Colorado vs Houston	+0.0-0.1+0.0
Nashville vs Columbus	+0.1*-0.0-0.0
San Jose vs Kansas City	+0.0-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26

77	-100						100
76		22	-	6	-	4	97	3
73	-75						100
72		21	-	5	-	6	99	0	0
71		20	-	7	-	5	98	1	0
70		20	-	6	-	6	97	2	1
69		19	-	8	-	5	98	1	1
68		19	-	7	-	6	94	2	3
67		19	-	6	-	7	94	3	3		0
66		18	-	8	-	6	89	5	5		0
65		18	-	7	-	7	86	7	7		0
64		18	-	6	-	8	81	9	10		0
63		17	-	8	-	7	72	13	14	0	1		0
62		17	-	7	-	8	63	17	19	0	1		0
61		16	-	9	-	7	51	21	24	0	3		0		0
60		16	-	8	-	8	40	24	29	1	5		0
59		16	-	7	-	9	29	26	34	3	8	0	1		0
58		15	-	9	-	8	18	25	36	5	13	0	2		0		0
57		15	-	8	-	9	10	23	34	10	19	1	4	0	0
56		15	-	7	-	10	5	19	27	15	24	2	7	0	1		0		0
55		14	-	9	-	9	2	13	19	18	28	4	13	0	3		0		0
54		14	-	8	-	10	1	8	10	18	27	9	20	1	6	0	1		0		0
53		14	-	7	-	11	0	4	4	15	20	14	25	3	12	0	3	0	0		0
52		13	-	9	-	10	0	2	1	10	11	17	24	7	19	1	6	0	1		0	0
51		13	-	8	-	11		1	0	5	4	15	18	13	24	3	13	0	3		1	0	0
50		12	-	10	-	10		0	0	2	1	10	9	16	22	8	20	1	8	0	2	0	0
49		12	-	9	-	11		0		1	0	5	3	13	14	14	24	5	16	0	5	1	0	0
48		12	-	8	-	12		0		0	0	2	0	7	6	15	19	11	22	2	12	3	0	0
47		11	-	10	-	11		0		0		0	0	3	1	11	9	16	22	7	19	8	2	0	0	0
46		11	-	9	-	12						0		1	0	5	3	14	14	14	23	18	7	2	0	0
45		11	-	8	-	13						0		0	0	2	0	8	5	16	19	25	17	7	2	0	0	0	0
44		10	-	10	-	12								0	0	0	0	3	1	11	9	21	25	18	8	2	0	0	0	0
43		10	-	9	-	13								0		0		1	0	5	3	11	21	26	19	10	3	1	0	0
42		10	-	8	-	14										0		0	0	2	0	3	11	20	25	21	11	4	1	0	0
41		9	-	10	-	13										0		0		1	0	1	3	10	20	26	22	12	4	1	0	0
40		9	-	9	-	14												0		0	0	0	1	3	10	20	26	23	12	4	1	0
39		9	-	8	-	15														0		0	0	1	3	10	21	28	23	11	3	0
38		8	-	10	-	14														0				0	1	4	12	23	29	22	8	1
37		8	-	9	-	15																		0	0	1	5	15	28	30	17	4
36		8	-	8	-	16																			0	0	2	7	21	34	27	9
35		7	-	10	-	15																			0	0	0	3	13	31	36	17
34		7	-	9	-	16																				0	0	1	6	23	41	28
33		7	-	8	-	17																					0	0	3	16	41	40
32		6	-	10	-	16																						0	1	10	37	52
31		6	-	9	-	17																						0	1	5	30	64
30		6	-	8	-	18																							0	2	23	74
29		5	-	10	-	17																							0	1	18	81
28		5	-	9	-	18																								1	12	87
27		5	-	8	-	19																								0	7	93
26		4	-	10	-	18																									6	94
25		4	-	9	-	19																									3	97
24		4	-	8	-	20																									3	97
23		3	-	10	-	19																									3	97
22		3	-	9	-	20																										100
21		3	-	8	-	21																									4	96
4	-20																															100

Total:							5	4	5	4	5	3	5	3	5	3	5	3	5	3	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	2