SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

What might
today bring

Columbus Crew Playoff Chances 2020 50/50

Plays Salt Lake, Tied Seattle 1-1, playoff odds down 0.8 to 62.9%

4 points 1-1-0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 3/8	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Supporters Shield	100.0*	Wooden Spoon	100.0*	Average seed
Seattle 1 Columbus 1	-2.0		-0.8		+0.1		-0.2
Colorado 2 Orlando 1	+0.5		*-0.1				+0.0
New England 1 Chicago 1	+0.4
Los Angeles FC 3 Philadelphia 3	+0.2						+0.0
Salt Lake 1 New York RB 1	+0.2		*+0.1				+0.0
Dallas 2 Montreal 2	*+0.1		+0.1				+0.0
DC United 2 Miami 1	-0.1
Toronto 1 New York City 0	*-0.1
Atlanta 2 Cincinnati 1	*-0.1
Kansas City 4 Houston 0			-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Columbus vs Salt Lake	+7.8-2.0-6.3		+2.1-0.7-1.6		-1.1+0.2+0.9		+0.7-0.2-0.6
Toronto vs Nashville	-0.7+0.3+0.5				*-0.0-0.1+0.1		-0.1+0.0+0.0
Miami vs LA Galaxy	-0.7+0.3+0.5						-0.1*+0.0+0.0
Philadelphia vs San Jose	-0.7*+0.1+0.6						-0.1*+0.0+0.1
New York City vs Dallas	-0.8+0.3+0.5						-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Minnesota vs New York RB	+0.5*+0.1-0.7						+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Atlanta vs Kansas City	-0.6*+0.1+0.5						-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Houston vs Seattle			*+0.0+0.1-0.1

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/15	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Supporters Shield	100.0*	Wooden Spoon	100.0*	Average seed
Nashville vs Columbus	-6.3-2.0+7.8		-1.6-0.7+2.1		+1.1+0.1-1.1		-0.6-0.2+0.7
New York City vs Vancouver	-0.7*+0.1+0.6						-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Minnesota vs Montreal	+0.6*+0.1-0.6						+0.1*+0.0-0.1
New England vs Portland	-0.7+0.3+0.5						-0.1*+0.0+0.0
Salt Lake vs New England	+0.5*+0.1-0.6						+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Cincinnati vs Toronto	-0.2+0.4*-0.1
Chicago vs Atlanta			+0.1*+0.1-0.2
San Jose vs Kansas City			*+0.1+0.1-0.1		+0.1*-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Columbus finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Supporters		Chance will finish regular season at seed													Wooden
TP		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		Shield		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	Spoon		Count

76	-100						In		Yes		100													No		220	*
75		22	-	5	-	5	In		98.8	%	99	1												No		83	*
72	-74						In		99.8		100													No		636	*
71		20	-	7	-	5	In		97.8		99	1												No		489	*
70		20	-	6	-	6	In		98.0		100	0												No		757	*
69		19	-	8	-	5	In		97.0		99	1												No		1,099	*
68		19	-	7	-	6	In		94.4		98	2												No		1,611	*
67		19	-	6	-	7	In		93.6		98	2												No		2,197	*
66		18	-	8	-	6	In		89.6		97	3												No		3,201	*
65		18	-	7	-	7	In		86.3		96	4												No		4,424	*
64		18	-	6	-	8	In		79.6		93	7	0											No		6,018	*
63		17	-	8	-	7	In		71.0		89	11	0											No		7,846	*
62		17	-	7	-	8	In		62.0		85	14	1											No		10,279	*
61		16	-	9	-	7	In		51.6		79	20	1	0										No		13,371	*
60		16	-	8	-	8	In		40.6		72	25	3	0										No		16,755	*
59		16	-	7	-	9	In		28.4		63	32	5	0	0									No		20,996	*
58		15	-	9	-	8	In		18.4		54	37	8	1	0									No		25,168	*
57		15	-	8	-	9	In		9.8		43	42	14	2	0	0								No		29,995	*
56		15	-	7	-	10	In		4.6		33	43	20	4	0	0	0							No		35,440	*
55		14	-	9	-	9	In		1.7		23	42	27	8	1	0	0							No		41,146	*
54		14	-	8	-	10	In		0.5		14	36	33	14	3	0	0							No		46,399	*
53		14	-	7	-	11	In		0.1		8	28	36	21	6	1	0							No		52,332	*
52		13	-	9	-	10	100.0	%	0.0		4	19	34	28	12	3	0	0						No		57,283	*
51		13	-	8	-	11	99.9		No		2	11	27	32	20	7	1	0	0					No		61,295	*
50		12	-	10	-	10	99.4		No		1	5	18	31	27	14	4	1	0	0				No		64,868	*
49		12	-	9	-	11	97.8		No		0	2	10	25	31	22	9	2	0	0				No		67,062	*
48		12	-	8	-	12	93.6		No		0	1	4	16	28	29	16	5	1	0	0			No		68,852	*
47		11	-	10	-	11	84.5		No		0	0	1	8	20	30	25	12	3	0	0	0		No		69,303	*
46		11	-	9	-	12	69.0		No		0	0	0	3	12	24	30	21	8	2	0	0		No		67,708	*
45		11	-	8	-	13	49.5		No			0	0	1	5	16	28	28	16	5	1	0		No		65,323	*
44		10	-	10	-	12	29.8		No				0	0	2	8	20	30	25	12	3	0	0	No		62,050	*
43		10	-	9	-	13	15.2		No				0	0	0	3	12	25	31	21	7	1	0	No		57,844	*
42		10	-	8	-	14	6.2		No					0	0	1	5	17	29	29	15	4	0	No		52,873	*
41		9	-	10	-	13	2.2		No						0	0	2	9	23	32	24	9	1	0.0	%	47,500	*
40		9	-	9	-	14	0.5		No							0	0	4	15	30	32	16	3	0.0		41,196	*
39		9	-	8	-	15	0.1		No							0	0	1	8	23	36	25	6	0.3		35,975	*
38		8	-	10	-	14	0.0		No								0	0	3	16	34	34	13	1.4		30,158	*
37		8	-	9	-	15	Out		No									0	1	8	28	41	21	3.9		24,944	*
36		8	-	8	-	16	Out		No									0	0	5	21	43	30	9.0		20,348	*
35		7	-	10	-	15	Out		No										0	2	14	42	41	17.4		16,117	*
34		7	-	9	-	16	Out		No										0	1	8	38	53	27.7		12,484	*
33		7	-	8	-	17	Out		No											0	5	32	63	40.5		9,610	*
32		6	-	10	-	16	Out		No											0	3	25	72	52.9		7,153	*
31		6	-	9	-	17	Out		No											0	1	18	80	64.5		5,111	*
30		6	-	8	-	18	Out		No												1	12	87	74.8		3,638	*
29		5	-	10	-	17	Out		No												0	9	91	82.1		2,519	*
28		5	-	9	-	18	Out		No													6	94	88.0		1,677	*
27		5	-	8	-	19	Out		No												0	4	96	92.8		1,131	*
26		4	-	10	-	18	Out		No													3	97	94.5		695	*
25		4	-	9	-	19	Out		No													2	98	96.9		447	*
24		4	-	8	-	20	Out		No													1	99	98.0		254	*
23		4	-	7	-	21	Out		No													1	99	97.3		149	*
4	-22						Out		No														100	Yes		315	*

Total:							62.9	%	4.7	%	10	10	9	9	9	8	8	7	7	7	6	5	5	2.3	%	1,276,344

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 3/8	100.0*	Lottery seed
Seattle 1 Columbus 1	+0.4
New England 1 Chicago 1	-0.1
Colorado 2 Orlando 1	-0.1
Salt Lake 1 New York RB 1	-0.0
Los Angeles FC 3 Philadelphia 3	-0.0
Dallas 2 Montreal 2	-0.0
DC United 2 Miami 1	+0.0
Atlanta 2 Cincinnati 1	+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Columbus vs Salt Lake	-1.5+0.4+1.2
Atlanta vs Kansas City	+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Toronto vs Nashville	+0.1-0.1-0.0
Minnesota vs New York RB	-0.1*-0.0+0.1
New York City vs Dallas	+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Miami vs LA Galaxy	+0.1*-0.0-0.0
Philadelphia vs San Jose	+0.1*-0.0-0.1

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/15	100.0*	Lottery seed
Nashville vs Columbus	+1.2+0.4-1.5
Minnesota vs Montreal	-0.1*-0.0+0.1
New York City vs Vancouver	+0.1*-0.0-0.1
New England vs Portland	+0.1*-0.0-0.0
Salt Lake vs New England	-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Miami vs New York RB	*+0.0-0.1+0.0
Cincinnati vs Toronto	+0.0-0.1+0.0
Chicago vs Atlanta	+0.0-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26

76	-100						100
75		22	-	5	-	5	99		1
74		21	-	7	-	4	100
73		21	-	6	-	5	99	1
72		20	-	8	-	4	100
71		20	-	7	-	5	98	2	1
70		20	-	6	-	6	98	2	0
69		19	-	8	-	5	97	2	1
68		19	-	7	-	6	94	3	2
67		19	-	6	-	7	94	4	2
66		18	-	8	-	6	90	7	3
65		18	-	7	-	7	86	9	4	0
64		18	-	6	-	8	80	13	7	0	0
63		17	-	8	-	7	71	18	11	0	0
62		17	-	7	-	8	62	23	14	0	1
61		16	-	9	-	7	52	27	19	1	1	0	0
60		16	-	8	-	8	41	31	23	2	3		0
59		16	-	7	-	9	28	35	28	4	5	0	0		0
58		15	-	9	-	8	18	35	30	8	8	0	1		0
57		15	-	8	-	9	10	33	29	13	13	1	2	0	0		0
56		15	-	7	-	10	5	28	24	19	17	2	4	0	0		0		0
55		14	-	9	-	9	2	21	17	25	21	6	8	0	1		0		0
54		14	-	8	-	10	1	14	9	27	21	12	13	1	3	0	0		0
53		14	-	7	-	11	0	8	4	24	16	19	17	4	6	0	1		0
52		13	-	9	-	10	0	4	1	18	9	24	19	10	11	1	3	0	0		0
51		13	-	8	-	11		2	0	11	4	24	14	18	16	4	6	0	1	0	0	0
50		12	-	10	-	10		1	0	5	1	18	7	24	16	11	12	1	3	0	1	0	0
49		12	-	9	-	11		0	0	2	0	10	2	22	11	20	16	6	8	0	2	0	0	0
48		12	-	8	-	12		0		1	0	4	0	15	4	24	14	15	13	3	5	1	0	0
47		11	-	10	-	11		0		0		1	0	8	1	19	7	23	15	10	11	4	1	0	0
46		11	-	9	-	12		0		0		0	0	3	0	11	2	22	10	19	15	11	4	1	0	0
45		11	-	8	-	13				0		0		1	0	5	0	15	4	24	13	17	13	6	2	0	0	0
44		10	-	10	-	12						0		0		2	0	8	1	19	7	16	21	16	8	2	1	0	0
43		10	-	9	-	13						0		0		0		3	0	11	2	8	18	23	19	10	3	1	0	0
42		10	-	8	-	14								0		0		1	0	5	0	3	9	19	25	21	12	4	1	0	0
41		9	-	10	-	13										0		0		2	0	1	3	9	19	26	22	13	5	1	0	0
40		9	-	9	-	14												0		0	0	0	1	3	9	19	27	23	13	4	1	0
39		9	-	8	-	15												0		0		0	0	1	3	10	21	28	23	11	3	0
38		8	-	10	-	14														0			0	0	1	4	12	23	29	21	8	1
37		8	-	9	-	15																		0	0	1	5	15	27	30	17	4
36		8	-	8	-	16																		0	0	0	2	8	21	33	28	9
35		7	-	10	-	15																			0	0	0	3	13	30	36	17
34		7	-	9	-	16																					0	1	6	23	42	28
33		7	-	8	-	17																					0	0	3	16	40	40
32		6	-	10	-	16																						0	1	10	36	53
31		6	-	9	-	17																						0	0	5	31	65
30		6	-	8	-	18																							0	2	23	75
29		5	-	10	-	17																								1	17	82
28		5	-	9	-	18																								0	12	88
27		5	-	8	-	19																								0	7	93
26		4	-	10	-	18																								0	5	95
25		4	-	9	-	19																									3	97
24		4	-	8	-	20																									2	98
23		4	-	7	-	21																									3	97
4	-22																															100

Total:							5	6	4	6	4	5	4	5	3	5	3	5	3	5	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2