SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Colorado Rapids Playoff Chances 2020 50/50

Beat Orlando 2-1, Plays at Vancouver, playoff odds up 7.8 to 68.6%

6 points 2-0-0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 3/8	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Supporters Shield	100.0*	Wooden Spoon	100.0*	Average seed
Colorado 2 Orlando 1	+7.8		+2.4		-1.0		+0.7
Portland 1 Nashville 0	-0.2
Salt Lake 1 New York RB 1	+0.2		+0.1				+0.0
Los Angeles FC 3 Philadelphia 3	+0.2		+0.1				+0.0
Kansas City 4 Houston 0	-0.1		-0.1
Dallas 2 Montreal 2	*+0.1						+0.0
San Jose 2 Minnesota 5	*-0.1		*-0.1
LA Galaxy 0 Vancouver 1	*-0.1
Seattle 1 Columbus 1	*+0.1						+0.0
Atlanta 2 Cincinnati 1			-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Vancouver vs Colorado	-6.7-1.5+7.8		-2.5-1.0+3.2		+0.5+0.1-0.6		-0.6-0.2+0.8
Miami vs LA Galaxy	+0.5*+0.2-0.7						+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Toronto vs Nashville	+0.5*+0.2-0.7						+0.0+0.0-0.1
Columbus vs Salt Lake	+0.5*+0.2-0.7						+0.0*+0.0-0.1
New York City vs Dallas	+0.5*+0.1-0.6						+0.1+0.0-0.1
Philadelphia vs San Jose	+0.4+0.4-0.7						+0.0+0.0-0.1
Minnesota vs New York RB	-0.5*+0.2+0.4						-0.1+0.0+0.0
Atlanta vs Kansas City	+0.4*+0.1-0.5						+0.0+0.0-0.1

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/15	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Supporters Shield	100.0*	Wooden Spoon	100.0*	Average seed
Colorado vs Houston	+7.7-1.6-6.5		+3.1-0.9-2.4		-0.6+0.1+0.6		+0.7-0.2-0.6
New York City vs Vancouver	+0.5+0.3-0.7						+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Salt Lake vs New England	-0.6*+0.1+0.6						-0.1*+0.0+0.1
New England vs Portland	+0.5*+0.1-0.6						+0.0+0.0-0.1
Minnesota vs Montreal	-0.6*+0.2+0.5		-0.1+0.1*+0.0				-0.1+0.0+0.0
Nashville vs Columbus	-0.6*+0.1+0.5		*+0.1+0.1-0.2				-0.1*+0.0+0.0
San Jose vs Kansas City			*+0.0+0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Colorado finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Supporters		Chance will finish regular season at seed													Wooden
TP		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		Shield		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	Spoon		Count

72	-102						In		99.8	%	100													No		2,114	*
71		19	-	8	-	5	In		98.9		100	0												No		1,047	*
70		19	-	7	-	6	In		97.9		99	1												No		1,632	*
69		19	-	6	-	7	In		96.9		99	1												No		2,157	*
68		18	-	8	-	6	In		95.7		98	2	0											No		3,085	*
67		18	-	7	-	7	In		93.6		97	3	0											No		4,338	*
66		18	-	6	-	8	In		90.2		95	5	0											No		5,992	*
65		17	-	8	-	7	In		86.1		93	7	0											No		7,913	*
64		17	-	7	-	8	In		80.5		91	9	0	0										No		10,359	*
63		16	-	9	-	7	In		73.2		86	13	1	0	0									No		13,217	*
62		16	-	8	-	8	In		63.6		80	18	1	0										No		16,782	*
61		16	-	7	-	9	In		53.3		74	24	2	0										No		20,870	*
60		15	-	9	-	8	In		42.2		66	30	4	0	0									No		25,302	*
59		15	-	8	-	9	In		30.0		56	36	8	1	0									No		30,127	*
58		15	-	7	-	10	In		19.5		45	41	12	2	0	0								No		35,357	*
57		14	-	9	-	9	In		11.1		35	43	18	3	0	0								No		41,347	*
56		14	-	8	-	10	In		5.2		25	42	25	7	1	0	0							No		46,476	*
55		14	-	7	-	11	100.0	%	2.0		16	37	32	12	2	0	0	0						No		51,987	*
54		13	-	9	-	10	100.0		0.6		9	30	35	19	5	1	0	0						No		56,564	*
53		13	-	8	-	11	100.0		0.1		5	21	34	27	11	2	0	0						No		61,465	*
52		12	-	10	-	10	99.9		0.0		2	12	29	32	18	6	1	0	0					No		64,657	*
51		12	-	9	-	11	99.6		0.0		1	6	20	31	26	12	3	0	0	0				No		67,458	*
50		12	-	8	-	12	98.3		No		0	2	12	26	31	20	7	2	0	0				No		68,731	*
49		11	-	10	-	11	94.9		No		0	1	5	17	29	28	15	4	1	0	0			No		68,995	*
48		11	-	9	-	12	86.7		No		0	0	2	9	22	30	24	10	3	0	0			No		67,809	*
47		11	-	8	-	13	72.3		No		0	0	1	3	13	26	29	19	7	1	0	0		No		65,432	*
46		10	-	10	-	12	53.3		No			0	0	1	6	17	29	27	15	4	1	0		No		62,068	*
45		10	-	9	-	13	33.2		No				0	0	2	9	22	30	23	10	2	0	0	No		58,113	*
44		10	-	8	-	14	17.1		No					0	1	4	13	26	30	19	6	1	0	No		52,854	*
43		9	-	10	-	13	7.1		No					0	0	1	6	18	30	28	13	3	0	No		47,488	*
42		9	-	9	-	14	2.4		No						0	0	2	10	24	32	23	7	1	No		41,626	*
41		9	-	8	-	15	0.8		No							0	1	5	16	31	31	14	2	0.0	%	36,145	*
40		8	-	10	-	14	0.2		No							0	0	2	9	25	35	24	6	0.0		30,199	*
39		8	-	9	-	15	0.0		No								0	0	4	17	35	33	11	0.2		24,968	*
38		8	-	8	-	16	0.0		No								0	0	1	10	29	41	18	1.2		20,341	*
37		7	-	10	-	15	Out		No									0	0	5	22	43	29	3.5		16,385	*
36		7	-	9	-	16	Out		No									0	0	2	15	42	40	8.9		12,472	*
35		7	-	8	-	17	Out		No										0	1	9	38	52	16.8		9,460	*
34		6	-	10	-	16	Out		No										0	0	5	32	63	27.3		7,040	*
33		6	-	9	-	17	Out		No											0	3	25	72	38.8		5,172	*
32		6	-	8	-	18	Out		No											0	1	19	80	52.4		3,612	*
31		5	-	10	-	17	Out		No												1	14	85	63.1		2,499	*
30		5	-	9	-	18	Out		No												1	9	90	74.4		1,740	*
29		5	-	8	-	19	Out		No													6	94	81.4		1,101	*
28		4	-	10	-	18	Out		No													5	95	87.6		676	*
27		4	-	9	-	19	Out		No													2	98	91.1		437	*
26		4	-	8	-	20	Out		No													3	97	92.0		261	*
25		3	-	10	-	19	Out		No													1	99	98.8		173	*
24		3	-	9	-	20	Out		No													1	99	96.7		92	*
22	-23						Out		No														100	Yes		67	*
21		2	-	9	-	21	Out		No													11	89	88.9		9	*
6	-20						Out		No														100	Yes		133	*

Total:							68.6	%	7.9	%	13	11	10	9	9	8	7	7	6	6	5	4	3	1.2	%	1,276,344

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 3/8	100.0*	Lottery seed
Colorado 2 Orlando 1	-1.5
Salt Lake 1 New York RB 1	-0.0
Los Angeles FC 3 Philadelphia 3	-0.0
Kansas City 4 Houston 0	+0.0
Seattle 1 Columbus 1	*-0.0
Dallas 2 Montreal 2	*-0.0
San Jose 2 Minnesota 5	+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Vancouver vs Colorado	+1.3+0.3-1.5
New York City vs Dallas	-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Atlanta vs Kansas City	-0.1-0.0+0.1
Minnesota vs New York RB	+0.1-0.0-0.0
Columbus vs Salt Lake	-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Toronto vs Nashville	-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Miami vs LA Galaxy	-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Philadelphia vs San Jose	-0.0*-0.1+0.1
Houston vs Seattle	*+0.0-0.1+0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/15	100.0*	Lottery seed
Colorado vs Houston	-1.5+0.3+1.2
Minnesota vs Montreal	+0.1-0.0-0.1
New York City vs Vancouver	-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Salt Lake vs New England	+0.1*-0.0-0.1
New England vs Portland	-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Nashville vs Columbus	+0.1-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26

76	-102						100
75		21	-	6	-	5	100	0
74		21	-	5	-	6	100	0
73		20	-	7	-	5	100
72		20	-	6	-	6	100	0
71		19	-	8	-	5	99	1	0
70		19	-	7	-	6	98	1	1
69		19	-	6	-	7	97	2	1
68		18	-	8	-	6	96	2	2		0
67		18	-	7	-	7	94	4	3		0
66		18	-	6	-	8	90	5	5		0
65		17	-	8	-	7	86	7	7		0
64		17	-	7	-	8	80	10	9	0	0		0
63		16	-	9	-	7	73	13	13	0	1		0		0
62		16	-	8	-	8	64	17	18	0	1		0
61		16	-	7	-	9	53	20	23	1	2	0	0
60		15	-	9	-	8	42	24	28	1	4	0	0		0
59		15	-	8	-	9	30	26	33	3	8	0	1		0
58		15	-	7	-	10	20	26	36	5	12	0	2		0		0
57		14	-	9	-	9	11	24	34	9	18	0	3	0	0		0
56		14	-	8	-	10	5	19	28	14	24	2	7	0	1		0		0
55		14	-	7	-	11	2	14	20	18	28	4	12	0	2	0	0		0		0
54		13	-	9	-	10	1	9	11	19	27	8	19	1	5	0	1		0		0
53		13	-	8	-	11	0	4	4	17	20	14	24	3	11	0	2	0	0		0
52		12	-	10	-	10	0	2	1	11	12	17	25	7	17	1	6	0	1		0	0
51		12	-	9	-	11	0	1	0	6	4	16	19	13	23	3	12	0	3		0	0	0
50		12	-	8	-	12		0	0	2	1	11	9	17	23	8	19	1	7	0	2	0	0
49		11	-	10	-	11		0		1	0	5	3	14	15	14	24	4	14	0	4	1	0	0
48		11	-	9	-	12		0		0	0	2	0	8	6	16	19	11	21	2	10	3	0	0
47		11	-	8	-	13		0		0		1	0	3	1	12	10	16	22	7	18	8	2	0	0
46		10	-	10	-	12				0		0		1	0	6	3	15	14	14	23	16	6	1	0	0	0
45		10	-	9	-	13						0		0	0	2	0	9	6	16	19	24	16	6	2	0	0	0
44		10	-	8	-	14								0		1	0	3	1	12	10	22	24	17	7	2	0	0		0
43		9	-	10	-	13								0		0		1	0	6	3	11	22	26	19	9	3	1	0	0
42		9	-	9	-	14										0		0	0	2	1	4	11	21	25	20	11	4	1	0	0
41		9	-	8	-	15												0		1	0	1	3	11	20	26	22	12	4	1	0	0
40		8	-	10	-	14												0		0	0	0	1	3	10	20	27	23	12	4	1	0
39		8	-	9	-	15														0			0	1	3	11	22	28	22	10	3	0
38		8	-	8	-	16														0			0	0	1	4	12	24	29	21	8	1
37		7	-	10	-	15																		0	0	1	5	16	28	30	17	4
36		7	-	9	-	16																		0	0	0	2	8	22	33	27	9
35		7	-	8	-	17																				0	1	3	13	31	36	17
34		6	-	10	-	16																				0	0	1	7	24	41	27
33		6	-	9	-	17																				0		0	3	17	41	39
32		6	-	8	-	18																						0	1	10	37	52
31		5	-	10	-	17																							0	6	31	63
30		5	-	9	-	18																							0	3	23	74
29		5	-	8	-	19																								1	18	81
28		4	-	10	-	18																								0	12	88
27		4	-	9	-	19																									9	91
26		4	-	8	-	20																									8	92
25		3	-	10	-	19																									1	99
24		3	-	9	-	20																									3	97
22	-23																															100
21		2	-	9	-	21																									11	89
6	-20																															100

Total:							8	5	7	4	6	4	6	4	5	3	5	3	5	3	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	1