SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Cincinnati FC Playoff Chances 2020 50/50

Lost to Atlanta 1-2, Plays DC United, playoff odds down 5.7 to 42.7%

0 points 0-0-2

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 3/8	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Supporters Shield	100.0*	Wooden Spoon	100.0*	Average seed
Atlanta 2 Cincinnati 1	-7.1		-1.0		+1.8		-0.6
Colorado 2 Orlando 1	+0.6						+0.1
New England 1 Chicago 1	+0.4
Salt Lake 1 New York RB 1	+0.2						+0.0
Los Angeles FC 3 Philadelphia 3	*+0.2						*+0.0
Toronto 1 New York City 0	-0.2
Dallas 2 Montreal 2	*+0.1						+0.0
Seattle 1 Columbus 1	*+0.1		+0.1				*+0.0
DC United 2 Miami 1	*-0.1
Kansas City 4 Houston 0			-0.1
LA Galaxy 0 Vancouver 1					+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Cincinnati vs DC United	+8.8-2.0-7.2		+0.9-0.3-0.7		-2.7+0.5+2.3		+0.8-0.2-0.6
Miami vs LA Galaxy	-0.7*+0.2+0.6						-0.1*+0.0+0.1
New York City vs Dallas	-0.7*+0.2+0.6						-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Toronto vs Nashville	-0.7*+0.1+0.6						-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Minnesota vs New York RB	+0.6*+0.2-0.7						+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Philadelphia vs San Jose	-0.7+0.3+0.5						-0.1*+0.0+0.0
Columbus vs Salt Lake	-0.6*+0.2+0.5						-0.1*+0.0+0.0
Atlanta vs Kansas City	-0.5*+0.1+0.4						-0.1*+0.0+0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/15	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Supporters Shield	100.0*	Wooden Spoon	100.0*	Average seed
Cincinnati vs Toronto	+8.8-2.1-7.2		+0.9-0.3-0.7		-2.6+0.5+2.3		+0.8-0.2-0.6
Minnesota vs Montreal	+0.6+0.3-0.8						+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Nashville vs Columbus	+0.6*+0.2-0.7						+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Salt Lake vs New England	+0.6+0.3-0.8						+0.0+0.0-0.1
New England vs Portland	-0.7*+0.1+0.6						-0.1*+0.0+0.1
New York City vs Vancouver	-0.7*+0.2+0.5						-0.1*+0.0+0.0
Chicago vs Atlanta	-0.3+0.3*+0.1
Colorado vs Houston					-0.1*+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Cincinnati finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Supporters		Chance will finish regular season at seed													Wooden
TP		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		Shield		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	Spoon		Count

73	-96						In		Yes		100													No		175	*
72		22	-	6	-	4	In		97.1	%	97	3												No		35	*
71		22	-	5	-	5	In		Yes		100													No		69	*
70		21	-	7	-	4	In		97.4		98	2												No		115	*
69		21	-	6	-	5	In		97.6		100	0												No		207	*
68		21	-	5	-	6	In		96.3		98	2												No		296	*
67		20	-	7	-	5	In		93.5		98	2												No		465	*
66		20	-	6	-	6	In		92.3		97	3												No		743	*
65		19	-	8	-	5	In		84.0		94	6	0											No		1,073	*
64		19	-	7	-	6	In		79.8		93	6	0											No		1,613	*
63		19	-	6	-	7	In		73.2		89	10	0											No		2,368	*
62		18	-	8	-	6	In		65.1		86	14	1											No		3,179	*
61		18	-	7	-	7	In		53.2		78	20	1	0										No		4,436	*
60		18	-	6	-	8	In		41.9		72	25	2	0										No		5,857	*
59		17	-	8	-	7	In		30.9		64	31	5	0										No		7,987	*
58		17	-	7	-	8	In		20.3		54	37	8	1	0									No		10,216	*
57		16	-	9	-	7	In		11.7		44	41	13	2	0									No		13,251	*
56		16	-	8	-	8	In		5.2		33	44	19	4	0	0								No		16,903	*
55		16	-	7	-	9	In		2.2		23	42	26	8	1	0								No		20,702	*
54		15	-	9	-	8	100.0	%	0.6		15	37	33	13	3	0	0	0						No		25,247	*
53		15	-	8	-	9	100.0		0.1		9	29	36	20	6	1	0	0						No		30,209	*
52		15	-	7	-	10	100.0		0.0		4	20	34	28	11	2	0	0						No		35,721	*
51		14	-	9	-	9	99.9		No		2	12	28	32	19	6	1	0	0					No		41,051	*
50		14	-	8	-	10	99.5		No		1	6	19	32	26	13	3	0	0					No		46,832	*
49		14	-	7	-	11	98.0		No		0	2	11	25	31	21	8	2	0	0				No		52,253	*
48		13	-	9	-	10	94.2		No		0	1	5	16	29	28	16	5	1	0	0			No		57,210	*
47		13	-	8	-	11	85.6		No		0	0	2	8	21	30	24	11	3	0	0	0		No		61,485	*
46		12	-	10	-	10	70.6		No		0	0	0	3	12	25	30	20	8	2	0	0		No		64,801	*
45		12	-	9	-	11	51.1		No			0	0	1	5	16	28	28	16	5	1	0		No		67,411	*
44		12	-	8	-	12	31.5		No				0	0	2	8	21	30	24	11	3	0	0	No		68,578	*
43		11	-	10	-	11	16.0		No				0	0	0	3	12	26	30	20	7	1	0	No		68,474	*
42		11	-	9	-	12	6.7		No					0	0	1	6	18	30	28	14	3	0	No		67,426	*
41		11	-	8	-	13	2.3		No						0	0	2	9	24	32	23	8	1	0.0	%	65,484	*
40		10	-	10	-	12	0.7		No						0	0	1	4	15	31	31	15	3	0.0		61,673	*
39		10	-	9	-	13	0.2		No							0	0	1	8	24	35	24	6	0.2		58,112	*
38		10	-	8	-	14	0.0		No								0	0	4	16	34	33	12	1.0		52,340	*
37		9	-	10	-	13	0.0		No								0	0	2	9	29	40	20	3.3		47,636	*
36		9	-	9	-	14	Out		No									0	0	5	22	43	30	8.3		41,597	*
35		9	-	8	-	15	Out		No									0	0	2	15	42	41	16.2		36,138	*
34		8	-	10	-	14	Out		No										0	1	9	38	52	26.6		30,339	*
33		8	-	9	-	15	Out		No										0	0	5	31	63	39.2		24,939	*
32		8	-	8	-	16	Out		No											0	3	25	72	51.5		20,397	*
31		7	-	10	-	15	Out		No											0	1	18	80	63.5		16,395	*
30		7	-	9	-	16	Out		No												1	14	86	73.3		12,434	*
29		7	-	8	-	17	Out		No												0	9	91	81.9		9,332	*
28		6	-	10	-	16	Out		No												0	6	94	87.1		7,157	*
27		6	-	9	-	17	Out		No												0	4	96	91.6		5,161	*
26		6	-	8	-	18	Out		No												0	3	97	93.8		3,657	*
25		5	-	10	-	17	Out		No													1	99	96.4		2,491	*
24		5	-	9	-	18	Out		No													1	99	98.2		1,644	*
23		5	-	8	-	19	Out		No													1	99	98.7		1,114	*
22		4	-	10	-	18	Out		No													0	100	99.3		759	*
21		4	-	9	-	19	Out		No													0	100	99.6		474	*
0	-20						Out		No														100	99.9		683	*

Total:							42.7	%	1.6	%	4	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	12	6.9	%	1,276,344

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 3/8	100.0*	Lottery seed
Atlanta 2 Cincinnati 1	+1.3
Colorado 2 Orlando 1	-0.1
Salt Lake 1 New York RB 1	-0.0
Dallas 2 Montreal 2	*-0.0
Toronto 1 New York City 0	+0.0
Los Angeles FC 3 Philadelphia 3	*-0.0
Seattle 1 Columbus 1	-0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Cincinnati vs DC United	-1.6+0.4+1.3
Miami vs LA Galaxy	+0.1-0.0-0.1
Minnesota vs New York RB	-0.1*-0.0+0.1
New York City vs Dallas	+0.1*-0.0-0.0
Toronto vs Nashville	+0.1*-0.0-0.0
Columbus vs Salt Lake	+0.1-0.0-0.0
Atlanta vs Kansas City	+0.1*-0.0-0.0
Philadelphia vs San Jose	+0.1*-0.0-0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/15	100.0*	Lottery seed
Cincinnati vs Toronto	-1.6+0.4+1.3
Minnesota vs Montreal	-0.0*-0.1+0.1
New England vs Portland	+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Nashville vs Columbus	-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Salt Lake vs New England	-0.0-0.0+0.1
New York City vs Vancouver	+0.1*-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26

73	-96						100
72		22	-	6	-	4	97		3
71		22	-	5	-	5	100
70		21	-	7	-	4	97	1	2
69		21	-	6	-	5	98	2	0
68		21	-	5	-	6	96	2	2
67		20	-	7	-	5	94	5	2
66		20	-	6	-	6	92	4	3
65		19	-	8	-	5	84	10	6		0
64		19	-	7	-	6	80	14	6		0
63		19	-	6	-	7	73	16	10	0	0
62		18	-	8	-	6	65	21	13	0	1
61		18	-	7	-	7	53	25	19	1	1		0
60		18	-	6	-	8	42	30	24	1	2	0	0
59		17	-	8	-	7	31	33	28	3	5	0	0
58		17	-	7	-	8	20	34	31	6	8	0	1		0
57		16	-	9	-	7	12	32	31	11	12	1	2	0	0
56		16	-	8	-	8	5	28	26	17	17	2	4	0	0		0
55		16	-	7	-	9	2	20	19	23	22	5	7	0	1		0
54		15	-	9	-	8	1	14	11	26	23	10	12	1	3	0	0		0		0
53		15	-	8	-	9	0	8	5	24	19	17	17	3	6	0	1	0	0		0
52		15	-	7	-	10	0	4	1	18	11	23	20	8	11	1	2	0	0		0
51		14	-	9	-	9		2	0	11	5	23	16	16	16	3	6	0	1		0	0
50		14	-	8	-	10		1	0	6	1	18	9	23	18	9	12	1	3	0	0	0
49		14	-	7	-	11		0	0	2	0	11	3	22	13	18	16	4	8	0	2	0	0
48		13	-	9	-	10		0		1	0	5	1	16	6	23	16	13	14	2	5	1	0	0
47		13	-	8	-	11		0		0		2	0	8	1	20	9	21	16	8	10	3	1	0	0	0
46		12	-	10	-	10		0		0		0	0	3	0	12	3	22	12	17	16	10	3	1	0	0
45		12	-	9	-	11				0		0		1	0	5	0	16	5	23	15	17	11	5	1	0	0	0	0
44		12	-	8	-	12						0		0		2	0	8	1	20	8	18	20	14	6	2	0	0	0
43		11	-	10	-	11						0		0		0		3	0	12	3	10	20	23	17	8	3	1	0	0
42		11	-	9	-	12								0		0		1	0	6	1	4	11	21	25	19	10	3	1	0	0
41		11	-	8	-	13										0		0		2	0	1	4	11	21	26	21	11	4	1	0	0
40		10	-	10	-	12										0		0		1	0	0	1	3	11	21	27	22	11	3	1	0
39		10	-	9	-	13												0		0		0	0	1	4	12	22	28	21	10	2	0
38		10	-	8	-	14														0		0	0	0	1	5	13	25	29	20	7	1
37		9	-	10	-	13														0			0	0	0	1	6	16	28	29	16	3
36		9	-	9	-	14																			0	0	2	8	22	33	26	8
35		9	-	8	-	15																				0	1	4	14	31	35	16
34		8	-	10	-	14																				0	0	1	7	25	40	27
33		8	-	9	-	15																					0	0	3	16	41	39
32		8	-	8	-	16																					0	0	1	10	38	51
31		7	-	10	-	15																						0	0	5	31	64
30		7	-	9	-	16																							0	3	24	73
29		7	-	8	-	17																							0	1	17	82
28		6	-	10	-	16																							0	1	12	87
27		6	-	9	-	17																								0	8	92
26		6	-	8	-	18																								0	6	94
25		5	-	10	-	17																									4	96
24		5	-	9	-	18																									2	98
23		5	-	8	-	19																									1	99
22		4	-	10	-	18																									1	99
21		4	-	9	-	19																									0	100
20		4	-	8	-	20																									0	100
0	-19																															100

Total:							2	3	2	3	2	4	2	4	3	4	3	4	3	5	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	6	6	7