SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Sometimes I
forget the point

Atlanta United Playoff Chances 2020 50/50

Beat Cincinnati 2-1, Plays Kansas City, playoff odds up 9.1 to 72.8%

6 points 2-0-0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 3/8	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Supporters Shield	100.0*	Wooden Spoon	100.0*	Average seed
Atlanta 2 Cincinnati 1	+8.1		+2.3		-1.1		+0.8
Colorado 2 Orlando 1	+0.6						+0.1
New England 1 Chicago 1	+0.4
Dallas 2 Montreal 2	+0.2		+0.1				+0.0
DC United 2 Miami 1	-0.2
Salt Lake 1 New York RB 1	+0.2						*+0.0
Los Angeles FC 3 Philadelphia 3	+0.2		+0.1				+0.0
Toronto 1 New York City 0	*-0.1
Seattle 1 Columbus 1	*+0.1						+0.0
Kansas City 4 Houston 0			-0.1
LA Galaxy 0 Vancouver 1			*-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Atlanta vs Kansas City	+6.8-1.7-5.5		+3.3-0.9-2.6		-0.6+0.1+0.5		+0.7-0.2-0.5
Miami vs LA Galaxy	-0.7*+0.2+0.5						-0.1*+0.0+0.0
Minnesota vs New York RB	+0.5*+0.2-0.6		-0.1+0.2*+0.0				+0.0+0.0-0.1
Philadelphia vs San Jose	-0.6*+0.2+0.4						-0.1*+0.0+0.0
Toronto vs Nashville	-0.5*+0.1+0.4						-0.1*+0.0+0.0
Columbus vs Salt Lake	-0.4*+0.0+0.4						-0.1*+0.0+0.0
New York City vs Dallas	-0.5*+0.2+0.4		+0.1*+0.1-0.2
Vancouver vs Colorado			*+0.0+0.1-0.2

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/15	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Supporters Shield	100.0*	Wooden Spoon	100.0*	Average seed
Chicago vs Atlanta	-6.2-1.5+7.3		-2.4-0.9+3.1		+0.6*+0.0-0.6		-0.6-0.2+0.7
New England vs Portland	-0.7*+0.2+0.5						-0.1*+0.0+0.0
Salt Lake vs New England	+0.5*+0.2-0.6						+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Nashville vs Columbus	+0.5*+0.0-0.5						+0.0*+0.0-0.1
New York City vs Vancouver	-0.6*+0.2+0.4						-0.1*+0.0+0.0
Minnesota vs Montreal	+0.4*+0.1-0.5						+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Miami vs New York RB					+0.0*+0.0-0.1
San Jose vs Kansas City			+0.1*+0.1-0.2
Colorado vs Houston			-0.2*+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Atlanta finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Supporters		Chance will finish regular season at seed													Wooden
TP		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		Shield		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	Spoon		Count

72	-102						In		99.7	%	100													No		2,099	*
71		19	-	8	-	5	In		98.7		100	0												No		1,043	*
70		19	-	7	-	6	In		97.8		99	1												No		1,527	*
69		19	-	6	-	7	In		97.0		99	1												No		2,337	*
68		18	-	8	-	6	In		95.9		99	1	0											No		3,243	*
67		18	-	7	-	7	In		93.4		98	2	0											No		4,364	*
66		18	-	6	-	8	In		90.2		97	3												No		6,055	*
65		17	-	8	-	7	In		86.2		96	4	0											No		7,915	*
64		17	-	7	-	8	In		80.2		93	7	0											No		10,264	*
63		16	-	9	-	7	In		72.3		90	9	0											No		13,204	*
62		16	-	8	-	8	In		63.5		86	13	1	0										No		17,065	*
61		16	-	7	-	9	In		53.1		81	18	1	0										No		20,783	*
60		15	-	9	-	8	In		41.2		74	24	2	0										No		25,580	*
59		15	-	8	-	9	In		29.7		66	29	4	0	0									No		30,490	*
58		15	-	7	-	10	In		19.0		56	36	8	1	0									No		35,740	*
57		14	-	9	-	9	In		10.9		45	41	12	1	0	0								No		40,829	*
56		14	-	8	-	10	In		5.1		35	43	18	3	0	0								No		46,910	*
55		14	-	7	-	11	In		2.0		25	42	25	7	1	0								No		51,840	*
54		13	-	9	-	10	In		0.6		16	38	32	12	2	0	0							No		56,859	*
53		13	-	8	-	11	100.0	%	0.1		9	30	35	20	5	1	0	0						No		61,604	*
52		12	-	10	-	10	100.0		0.0		4	21	34	27	11	2	0	0						No		64,877	*
51		12	-	9	-	11	99.9		0.0		2	12	28	32	18	6	1	0	0					No		67,108	*
50		12	-	8	-	12	99.5		No		1	6	20	32	26	12	3	0	0					No		68,664	*
49		11	-	10	-	11	98.2		No		0	2	11	26	31	20	8	2	0	0	0			No		68,402	*
48		11	-	9	-	12	94.2		No		0	1	5	16	29	28	15	5	1	0				No		67,720	*
47		11	-	8	-	13	85.7		No		0	0	2	8	21	30	24	11	3	0	0	0		No		65,207	*
46		10	-	10	-	12	71.1		No		0	0	0	3	12	25	29	20	8	2	0	0		No		62,251	*
45		10	-	9	-	13	51.4		No			0	0	1	6	17	28	28	15	5	1	0		No		57,459	*
44		10	-	8	-	14	31.7		No				0	0	2	8	21	30	24	11	3	0	0	No		52,683	*
43		9	-	10	-	13	16.0		No				0	0	0	3	12	26	30	20	7	1	0	No		47,502	*
42		9	-	9	-	14	6.6		No				0		0	1	6	17	30	28	14	3	0	No		41,640	*
41		9	-	8	-	15	2.4		No						0	0	2	10	24	32	23	8	1	0.0	%	35,937	*
40		8	-	10	-	14	0.7		No							0	1	4	16	30	31	15	3	0.0		30,005	*
39		8	-	9	-	15	0.2		No							0	0	2	8	24	36	24	6	0.3		25,247	*
38		8	-	8	-	16	0.0		No								0	0	4	16	34	33	12	1.4		20,559	*
37		7	-	10	-	15	Out		No									0	1	9	29	41	20	3.8		16,008	*
36		7	-	9	-	16	Out		No									0	1	5	21	44	30	8.7		12,706	*
35		7	-	8	-	17	Out		No									0	0	2	14	42	41	17.6		9,612	*
34		6	-	10	-	16	Out		No										0	1	9	38	53	27.4		6,997	*
33		6	-	9	-	17	Out		No											0	5	32	62	39.1		5,086	*
32		6	-	8	-	18	Out		No											0	2	25	73	53.2		3,649	*
31		5	-	10	-	17	Out		No												1	21	78	62.5		2,559	*
30		5	-	9	-	18	Out		No												1	14	86	73.9		1,706	*
29		5	-	8	-	19	Out		No												0	9	91	83.5		1,082	*
28		4	-	10	-	18	Out		No													6	94	89.6		750	*
27		4	-	9	-	19	Out		No												0	3	97	93.5		431	*
26		4	-	8	-	20	Out		No													1	99	96.0		276	*
25		4	-	7	-	21	Out		No													1	99	97.6		166	*
24		3	-	9	-	20	Out		No													1	99	96.3		80	*
6	-23						Out		No														100	Yes		224	*

Total:							72.8	%	7.9	%	16	13	11	10	9	8	7	6	6	5	4	4	3	1.2	%	1,276,344

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 3/8	100.0*	Lottery seed
Atlanta 2 Cincinnati 1	-1.6
New England 1 Chicago 1	-0.1
Colorado 2 Orlando 1	-0.1
Los Angeles FC 3 Philadelphia 3	-0.0
Dallas 2 Montreal 2	-0.0
Salt Lake 1 New York RB 1	*-0.0
Seattle 1 Columbus 1	*-0.0
DC United 2 Miami 1	+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Atlanta vs Kansas City	-1.4+0.4+1.2
Minnesota vs New York RB	-0.1-0.0+0.1
Toronto vs Nashville	+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Columbus vs Salt Lake	+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Miami vs LA Galaxy	+0.1*-0.0-0.0
Philadelphia vs San Jose	+0.1*-0.0-0.0
New York City vs Dallas	+0.1*-0.0-0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/15	100.0*	Lottery seed
Chicago vs Atlanta	+1.2+0.3-1.5
New England vs Portland	+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Minnesota vs Montreal	-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Nashville vs Columbus	-0.1*-0.0+0.1
New York City vs Vancouver	+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Salt Lake vs New England	-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Cincinnati vs Toronto	+0.0-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26

78	-102						100
77		22	-	5	-	5	98	2
75	-76						100
74		21	-	5	-	6	100	0
73		20	-	7	-	5	100
72		20	-	6	-	6	99	1
71		19	-	8	-	5	99	1	0
70		19	-	7	-	6	98	2	1
69		19	-	6	-	7	97	2	1
68		18	-	8	-	6	96	3	1		0
67		18	-	7	-	7	93	5	2		0
66		18	-	6	-	8	90	7	3
65		17	-	8	-	7	86	10	4	0	0
64		17	-	7	-	8	80	13	7	0	0
63		16	-	9	-	7	72	18	9	0	0
62		16	-	8	-	8	64	23	13	0	1		0
61		16	-	7	-	9	53	28	17	1	1	0	0
60		15	-	9	-	8	41	33	22	2	2	0	0
59		15	-	8	-	9	30	36	26	3	4	0	0		0
58		15	-	7	-	10	19	37	29	7	7	0	1	0	0
57		14	-	9	-	9	11	35	28	12	11	1	1	0	0		0
56		14	-	8	-	10	5	29	24	19	17	2	3	0	0		0
55		14	-	7	-	11	2	23	17	25	20	5	7	0	1	0	0
54		13	-	9	-	10	1	15	10	28	21	11	11	1	2	0	0		0
53		13	-	8	-	11	0	9	4	26	17	19	16	3	5	0	1		0		0
52		12	-	10	-	10	0	4	1	20	10	25	18	9	10	1	2	0	0		0
51		12	-	9	-	11	0	2	0	12	4	25	15	18	15	3	6	0	1	0	0	0
50		12	-	8	-	12		1	0	6	1	19	8	24	16	10	11	1	3	0	0	0
49		11	-	10	-	11		0		2	0	11	3	23	11	19	15	5	7	0	2	0	0	0
48		11	-	9	-	12		0		1	0	5	0	16	5	24	14	14	13	2	5	1	0		0
47		11	-	8	-	13		0		0		2	0	8	1	20	8	22	15	9	10	4	1	0	0
46		10	-	10	-	12		0		0		0		3	0	12	2	23	11	19	15	10	4	1	0	0	0
45		10	-	9	-	13				0		0		1	0	6	0	16	4	24	13	17	12	5	1	0	0
44		10	-	8	-	14						0		0		2	0	8	1	20	8	16	20	15	7	2	0	0	0
43		9	-	10	-	13						0		0		0		3	0	12	2	9	18	23	18	9	3	1	0	0
42		9	-	9	-	14						0				0		1	0	6	0	3	10	19	25	20	11	4	1	0	0
41		9	-	8	-	15										0		0		2	0	1	3	10	20	26	22	12	4	1	0	0
40		8	-	10	-	14												0		1		0	1	3	10	20	26	23	12	4	1	0
39		8	-	9	-	15												0		0		0	0	1	3	10	21	28	23	11	3	0
38		8	-	8	-	16														0				0	1	4	12	24	29	21	8	1
37		7	-	10	-	15																			0	1	5	15	28	30	16	4
36		7	-	9	-	16																				0	2	8	21	34	28	9
35		7	-	8	-	17																				0	0	3	13	30	36	18
34		6	-	10	-	16																				0	0	1	7	24	41	27
33		6	-	9	-	17																						0	4	16	41	39
32		6	-	8	-	18																						0	1	9	37	53
31		5	-	10	-	17																							0	5	32	63
30		5	-	9	-	18																							0	2	24	74
29		5	-	8	-	19																								1	15	84
28		4	-	10	-	18																								0	10	90
27		4	-	9	-	19																								0	6	94
26		4	-	8	-	20																								0	4	96
25		4	-	7	-	21																									2	98
24		3	-	9	-	20																								1	3	96
6	-23																															100

Total:							8	8	6	7	5	6	4	6	3	5	3	5	3	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	1