Chicago Fire Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 3.1 to 70.2%
4 points   1-1-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 3/11100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Fire 2 Real Salt Lake 0 +6.5
+0.7
+1.3
-1.5
+0.5
Minnesota 1 Atlanta 6 -1.1
-0.1
-0.1
Red Bulls 1 Rapids 0 -0.6
-0.1
-0.0
Dynamo 3 Crew 1 +0.5
+0.1
+0.0
Impact 2 Sounders 2 +0.5
+0.0
Union 2 Toronto FC 2 +0.4
+0.1
+0.1
NYCFC 4 DC United 0 -0.2
+0.1
Galaxy 0 Timbers 1 -0.1
-0.1
Sporting KC 0 FC Dallas 0 +0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Revolution vs Orlando-0.2+0.4-0.1
*+0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.1+0.1-0.2
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/18100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Atlanta vs Fire-4.6+0.6+9.7
-0.7+0.1+1.4
-1.7-0.2+4.2
+0.4-0.1-0.7
-0.4+0.0+0.8
Whitecaps vs Toronto FC+0.5*+0.0-1.0
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
FC Dallas vs Revolution+0.4-0.0-1.1
+0.0*+0.0-0.1
-0.1+0.1+0.1
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Sounders vs Red Bulls+0.3*-0.0-0.6
+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.1+0.1-0.3
+0.0+0.0-0.1
DC United vs Crew-0.2+0.5-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
NYCFC vs Impact-0.1+0.4-0.2
-0.0+0.1+0.0
-0.1+0.1+0.1
Orlando vs Union-0.1+0.4-0.2
-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.1+0.1
Timbers vs Dynamo-0.1+0.2-0.0
Sporting KC vs Earthquakes+0.0+0.1-0.2
Rapids vs Minnesota-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.0-0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Fire finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield1234567891011SpoonCount
84-100InYes100No37,593*
8325-4-3In99.2%991No132*
77-82In99.9100No13,390*
7622-6-4In99.91000No11,211*
7522-5-5In99.91000No19,911*
7421-7-4In99.81000No33,927*
7321-6-5In99.71000No55,857*
7221-5-6In99.41000No91,473*
7120-7-5In99.21000No145,023*
7020-6-6In98.610000No224,357*
6919-8-5In97.89910No341,460*
6819-7-6In96.69910No507,635*
6719-6-7In94.89820No738,832*
6618-8-6In92.19730No1,049,773*
6518-7-7In88.596400No1,465,503*
6418-6-8In83.494600No2,004,135*
6317-8-7In76.991900No2,681,458*
6217-7-8In68.6871300No3,519,904*
6116-9-7In58.78217100No4,518,808*
6016-8-8In47.67523200No5,690,900*
5916-7-9In35.96729400No7,025,549*
5815-9-8In24.758356000No8,489,643*
5715-8-9In15.1484011100No10,065,885*
5615-7-10100.0%8.03744163000No11,694,232*
5514-9-9100.03.52744235100No13,320,819*
5414-8-10100.01.21840311010000No14,871,823*
5314-7-11100.00.3113336164000No16,258,438*
5213-9-1099.90.1625372481000No17,430,265*
5113-8-1199.60.02163331143000No18,313,146*
5012-10-1098.70.01825342271000No18,854,925*
4912-9-1196.10.004163130144000No19,027,558*
4812-8-1290.0No01824332382000No18,806,152*
4711-10-1178.8No004153031164100No18,205,002*
4611-9-1262.5No001722322510200No17,264,570*
4511-8-1343.6No000313283219510No16,035,440*
4410-10-1226.1No000161932281220No14,582,546*
4310-9-1313.3No000211273320610.0%12,980,454*
4210-8-145.7No000151833301220.011,310,766*
419-10-132.1No00021028362040.09,641,713*
409-9-140.6No001520373080.18,043,260*
399-8-150.2No0002123338150.76,551,921*
388-10-140.0No00162643242.45,225,493*
378-9-150.0No00031844356.34,069,600*
368-8-160.0No00111414612.93,095,014*
357-10-150.0No0007355722.52,299,480*
347-9-16OutNo004296834.01,666,353*
337-8-17OutNo002227646.51,177,964*
326-10-16OutNo001168358.4813,324*
316-9-17OutNo00118868.8546,100*
306-8-18OutNo0089277.7356,968*
295-10-17OutNo059584.5226,618*
285-9-18OutNo039789.6139,925*
275-8-19OutNo029893.183,858*
264-10-18OutNo19995.748,600*
254-9-19OutNo19997.427,598*
244-8-20OutNo010098.314,892*
233-10-19OutNo010099.28,011*
223-9-20OutNo010099.63,968*
19-21OutNo10099.83,305*
182-8-22OutNo19999.5184*
4-17OutNo100Yes37,620*
Total:70.2%7.1%15131211109876541.2%331,770,264

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Fire finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeRed BullsOrlandoNYCFCAtlantaToronto FCUnionDC UnitedRevolutionImpactCrew
66-10012.5%Yes
6518-7-712.410000
6418-6-812.5100000000
6317-8-712.51000000000000
6217-7-812.51000000000000
6116-9-712.51000000000000
6016-8-812.51000000000000
5916-7-912.51000000000000
15-10-712.51000000000000
5815-9-812.41000000000000
16-6-1012.51000000000000
5715-8-912.4990000000000
14-11-712.5990000000000
5615-7-1012.4970000000000
14-10-812.4970000000000
5514-9-912.3941111111000
15-6-1112.3941111110000
5414-8-1012.0891111111111
13-11-812.0881111111111
15-5-1212.1891111111111
5314-7-1111.6802222222121
13-10-911.5792233222221
12-13-711.6802222222111
5213-9-1010.8664444433332
14-6-1210.9684444333222
12-12-810.8664444433322
5113-8-119.8515555544443
12-11-99.7505666554443
14-5-139.9535555544443
5012-10-108.2346777665554
13-7-128.4366777655554
11-13-88.3356777665554
4912-9-116.5207777766555
13-6-136.8227777766555
11-12-96.4197777766555
4812-8-124.8106777665554
11-11-104.7106777665554
4711-10-112.945555544443
12-7-133.145555544444
4611-9-121.713333333332
4511-8-130.802222221111
4410-10-120.301111111111
4310-9-130.100000000000
4210-8-140.000000000000
419-10-130.000000000000
409-9-140.00000000000
399-8-150.00000000000
389-7-160.00000000000
379-6-17No00
4-36No
Total:6.4%40.12.32.52.52.52.32.11.91.71.71.6
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 3/11100.0*Lottery seed
Fire 2 Real Salt Lake 0 -1.0
Minnesota 1 Atlanta 6 +0.1
Red Bulls 1 Rapids 0 +0.1
Union 2 Toronto FC 2 -0.1
Impact 2 Sounders 2 -0.0
Dynamo 3 Crew 1 -0.0
NYCFC 4 DC United 0 +0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/18100.0*Lottery seed
Atlanta vs Fire+0.7-0.1-1.6
Sounders vs Red Bulls-0.0-0.0+0.1
Whitecaps vs Toronto FC-0.0-0.0+0.1
FC Dallas vs Revolution-0.0-0.0+0.1
NYCFC vs Impact+0.0-0.1+0.0
Orlando vs Union+0.0-0.1+0.0
DC United vs Crew+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L12345678910111213141516171819202122
84-100100
8325-4-3991
8224-6-2100
8124-5-31000
8024-4-4100
7923-6-31000
7823-5-41000
7723-4-51000
7622-6-410000
7522-5-510000
7421-7-410000
7321-6-510000
7221-5-69900
7120-7-59910
7020-6-699100
6919-8-598210
6819-7-697210
6719-6-7953200
6618-8-6925300
6518-7-78874000
6418-6-883106000
6317-8-7771490000
6217-7-86918130000
6116-9-759231701000
6016-8-848282212000
5916-7-9363127240000
5815-9-82533314600000
5715-8-915333281001000
5615-7-108293014161300000
5514-9-93232420212501000
5414-8-101171624256100100000
5314-7-110108252412151300000
5213-9-100532118192137010000
5113-8-1102115102322913130000
5012-10-1001084221817193701000
4912-9-1100041159222191414000
4812-8-1200108321161720382000
4711-10-11000411482220101551000
4611-9-1200010721914192112410000
4511-8-1300003012622202111310000
4410-10-1200001062181224221241000
4310-9-1300000201151726231241000
4210-8-14000010517192723124100
419-10-130000202921282311300
409-9-14000100311232922920
399-8-1500000141426301961
388-10-140000016183029142
378-9-1500000292434246
368-8-1600001416333413
357-10-15000019274122
347-9-160004194234
337-8-17002124047
326-10-160173458
316-9-170042769
306-8-180022178
295-10-170011584
285-9-18001090
275-8-1900793
264-10-180496
254-9-190397
244-8-200298
233-10-19199
223-9-200100
213-8-210100
203-7-220100
192-9-210100
182-8-22199
4-17100
Total:7777666555544444333221