FC Dallas Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.9 to 71.5%
4 points   1-1-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 3/11100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Minnesota 1 Atlanta 6 +0.8
+0.1
+0.1
Sporting KC 0 FC Dallas 0 +0.7
+0.1
-0.1
-0.1
+0.0
Dynamo 3 Crew 1 -0.6
-0.1
-0.1
-0.0
Fire 2 Real Salt Lake 0 +0.5
+0.1
+0.0
Red Bulls 1 Rapids 0 +0.4
+0.1
-0.1
+0.0
Galaxy 0 Timbers 1 -0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
Earthquakes 3 Whitecaps 2 -0.1
-0.1
Union 2 Toronto FC 2 +0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Revolution vs Orlando+0.1+0.1-0.2
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/18100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
FC Dallas vs Revolution+5.1-4.1-8.5
+0.7-0.6-1.2
+2.0-1.8-3.0
-0.5+0.3+1.0
+0.4-0.3-0.7
Sounders vs Red Bulls-0.7+0.4+0.9
-0.1+0.1+0.1
+0.2+0.1-0.4
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Whitecaps vs Toronto FC-0.6+0.4+0.8
-0.1+0.0+0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Real Salt Lake vs Galaxy-0.2+0.5*-0.0
-0.0+0.1+0.0
-0.0-0.0+0.1
Rapids vs Minnesota-0.2+0.5*+0.0
-0.1+0.1+0.0
-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Sporting KC vs Earthquakes-0.2+0.4+0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.0
+0.0+0.1-0.2
Timbers vs Dynamo-0.1+0.2-0.2
-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2*-0.0
Atlanta vs Fire*+0.0+0.1-0.2
NYCFC vs Impact-0.1+0.1+0.1
Orlando vs Union-0.1+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well FC Dallas finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield1234567891011SpoonCount
78-100In100.0%100No45,730*
7723-4-5In99.91000No6,923*
7622-6-4In99.91000No12,477*
7522-5-5In99.81000No21,455*
7421-7-4In99.81000No36,636*
7321-6-5In99.71000No60,949*
7221-5-6In99.51000No98,363*
7120-7-5In99.21000No155,562*
7020-6-6In98.79910No240,093*
6919-8-5In97.99910No364,208*
6819-7-6In96.79910No537,948*
6719-6-7In95.09820No778,971*
6618-8-6In92.497300No1,108,489*
6518-7-7In88.995500No1,539,889*
6418-6-8In84.092800No2,096,550*
6317-8-7In77.4891100No2,793,777*
6217-7-8In69.28515100No3,655,373*
6116-9-7In59.37920100No4,675,646*
6016-8-8In48.27226300No5,872,311*
5916-7-9In36.463325000No7,218,460*
5815-9-8In25.154388100No8,702,247*
5715-8-9In15.4444213100No10,277,997*
5615-7-10100.0%8.23345193000No11,905,126*
5514-9-9100.03.623442661000No13,511,923*
5414-8-10100.01.2153933112000No15,033,818*
5314-7-11100.00.393237184000No16,387,455*
5213-9-1099.90.1523372681000No17,528,530*
5113-8-1199.60.02143332153000No18,365,865*
5012-10-1098.70.01724352481000No18,849,044*
4912-9-1196.20.0031632311530000No18,963,353*
4812-8-1290.6No01824342381000No18,701,196*
4711-10-1180.4No003153131154000No18,049,809*
4611-9-1265.2No00182334259100No17,074,683*
4511-8-1347.1No000314303217400No15,831,576*
4410-10-1229.7No0017223426910No14,367,761*
4310-9-1316.1No000313303317400.0%12,759,329*
4210-8-147.4No00016223526810.011,095,627*
419-10-132.9No00031432341620.09,442,619*
409-9-141.0No001725382450.17,861,588*
399-8-150.3No0003173733100.76,403,264*
388-10-140.1No001103141172.45,102,007*
378-9-150.0No00052444266.23,968,219*
368-8-160.0No00217453612.83,013,878*
357-10-150.0No00111414722.32,235,871*
347-9-16OutNo007365733.81,622,739*
337-8-17OutNo004306746.01,147,089*
326-10-16OutNo002237558.1788,795*
316-9-17OutNo001178268.8531,519*
306-8-18OutNo00138777.5346,831*
295-10-17OutNo0099184.4221,013*
285-9-18OutNo069489.5136,262*
275-8-19OutNo049693.381,764*
264-10-18OutNo029895.747,626*
254-9-19OutNo29897.326,587*
244-8-20OutNo19998.614,767*
233-10-19OutNo010099.27,711*
223-9-20OutNo010099.73,899*
213-8-21OutNo010099.61,959*
203-7-22OutNo10099.7910*
192-9-21OutNo010099.8412*
4-18OutNo100Yes37,786*
Total:71.5%7.5%14131312119876431.2%331,770,264

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well FC Dallas finishes out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeTimbersDynamoEarthquakesSporting KCRapidsSoundersReal Salt LakeWhitecapsMinnesotaGalaxy
67-10012.5%Yes
6618-8-612.51000
6518-7-712.5100000
6418-6-812.51000000000000
6317-8-712.5100000000000
6217-7-812.51000000000000
6116-9-712.51000000000000
6016-8-812.51000000000000
5916-7-912.51000000000000
15-10-712.51000000000000
5815-9-812.5990000000000
16-6-1012.5990000000000
5715-8-912.5980000000000
14-11-712.5990000000000
5615-7-1012.4970000000000
14-10-812.3970000000000
5514-9-912.2931111111100
15-6-1112.2931111111100
5414-8-1011.9872222211111
13-11-811.9862222211111
15-5-1212.0881222111111
5314-7-1111.5783333322211
13-10-911.4773333322211
5213-9-1010.6644554433322
14-6-1210.8664444433322
12-12-810.6644554433322
5113-8-119.5496666655433
12-11-99.4476666655433
14-5-139.7505666554432
5012-10-108.0327777766533
13-7-128.2347777766533
11-13-88.1337777766533
4912-9-116.3197888766544
13-6-136.6207888766543
11-12-96.3187888766544
4812-8-124.7106777766543
11-11-104.696777766533
4711-10-112.945555544433
12-7-133.145666555433
4611-9-121.713444433322
4511-8-130.902222222211
4410-10-120.401111111100
4310-9-130.100000000000
4210-8-140.000000000000
419-10-130.000000000000
409-9-140.00000000000
399-8-150.00000000000
389-7-160.00000000000
378-9-15No00000
4-36No
Total:6.4%39.92.52.72.82.82.62.22.11.91.31.3
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 3/11100.0*Lottery seed
Sporting KC 0 FC Dallas 0 -0.1
Dynamo 3 Crew 1 +0.1
Minnesota 1 Atlanta 6 -0.1
Red Bulls 1 Rapids 0 -0.0
Fire 2 Real Salt Lake 0 -0.0
Earthquakes 3 Whitecaps 2 +0.0
Impact 2 Sounders 2 -0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/18100.0*Lottery seed
FC Dallas vs Revolution-0.9+0.7+1.4
Sounders vs Red Bulls+0.1-0.0-0.1
Whitecaps vs Toronto FC+0.1-0.0-0.1
Rapids vs Minnesota+0.0-0.1-0.0
Sporting KC vs Earthquakes+0.0-0.1+0.0
Real Salt Lake vs Galaxy+0.0-0.1-0.0
Timbers vs Dynamo+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L12345678910111213141516171819202122
79-100100
7823-5-41000
7723-4-510000
7622-6-410000
7522-5-510000
7421-7-410000
7321-6-510000
7221-5-69900
7120-7-59900
7020-6-699110
6919-8-598110
6819-7-697210
6719-6-795320
6618-8-69243000
6518-7-78965000
6418-6-88487000
6317-8-7771211000
6217-7-869151501000
6116-9-759201901000
6016-8-848242513000
5916-7-9362730250000
5815-9-82529344801000
5715-8-9152835712010000
5615-7-108253212181300000
5514-9-942026182426010000
5414-8-10114172227611020000
5314-7-11099232611171400000
5213-9-100431919182338010000
5113-8-1102113102224915130000
5012-10-1001074211816213801000
4912-9-110003115102222914130000
4812-8-1200108321161720481000
4711-10-1100003114823201114410000
4611-9-120001082211420201131000
4511-8-1300000301362419201131000
4410-10-120001072201222211141000
4310-9-1300000301351625221241000
4210-8-14000010617182723124100
419-10-130000302921282311300
409-9-14000100311232921920
399-8-1500000141426301961
388-10-140000016183029132
378-9-1500000292434246
368-8-1600001416333413
357-10-15000019274022
347-9-160004194234
337-8-170002124046
326-10-1600173458
316-9-170042769
306-8-180022177
295-10-17011584
285-9-18001090
275-8-1900793
264-10-180496
254-9-190397
244-8-20199
233-10-19199
223-9-200100
213-8-210100
203-7-220100
192-9-210100
4-18100
Total:7676766555554443333221