FC Dallas Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 1.1 to 64.3%
4 points   1-1-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 3/7100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
FC Dallas 2 Montreal 2 -4.3
-0.6
-1.6
+0.4
-0.4
Colorado 2 Orlando 1 -0.5
-0.1
-0.0
RSL 1 NY Red Bulls 1 +0.4
+0.1
+0.1
+0.0
LAFC 3 Philadelphia 3 +0.4
+0.1
+0.0
Seattle 1 Columbus 1 +0.3
+0.1
+0.1
+0.0
Portland 1 Nashville 0 -0.1
LA Galaxy 0 Vancouver 1 -0.1
Sporting KC 4 Houston 0 -0.1
-0.1
San Jose 2 Minnesota 5 -0.2
Atlanta 2 Cincinnati 1 -0.1
New England 1 Chicago 1 +0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/14100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
NYCFC vs FC Dallas-5.3-0.9+8.9
-0.7-0.1+1.1
-1.4-0.5+2.6
+0.6-0.1-0.8
-0.5-0.1+0.8
New England vs Portland+0.4*+0.0-1.0
+0.0*+0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Columbus vs RSL+0.4*-0.0-1.0
+0.0*+0.0-0.1
-0.1+0.1+0.0
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Miami vs LA Galaxy+0.4*+0.0-0.9
+0.0*+0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Philadelphia vs San Jose+0.4*+0.0-0.9
+0.0*+0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Toronto FC vs Nashville+0.3*-0.0-0.9
+0.0*+0.0-0.1
-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.0*-0.0+0.1
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Minnesota vs NY Red Bulls-0.3+0.2+0.6
-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.1+0.2+0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Atlanta vs Sporting KC+0.3*-0.0-0.5
+0.1*-0.0-0.1
-0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Vancouver vs Colorado-0.3+0.4+0.2
+0.1+0.1-0.2
Houston vs Seattle-0.1+0.4-0.2
+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Cincinnati vs DC United+0.0+0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well FC Dallas finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910111213SpoonCount
77-100In100.0%100No11,947*
7622-6-4In99.81000No2,960*
7522-5-5In99.61000No5,301*
7422-4-6In99.51000No8,662*
7321-6-5In99.31000No14,256*
7221-5-6In99.01000No22,901*
7120-7-5In98.3991No36,644*
7020-6-6In97.39910No56,426*
6920-5-7In96.09820No84,638*
6819-7-6In93.79730No126,445*
6719-6-7In90.89550No181,448*
6619-5-8In86.693700No257,723*
6518-7-7In81.1901000No358,182*
6418-6-8In74.0851410No489,710*
6317-8-7In65.28019100No654,668*
6217-7-8In54.97324200No858,751*
6117-6-9In43.665304000No1,102,961*
6016-8-8In32.256367100No1,388,253*
5916-7-9In21.5464112100No1,715,793*
5816-6-10In12.73544183000No2,081,764*
5715-8-9In6.42644246100No2,474,184*
5615-7-10100.0%2.6174031112000No2,885,134*
5515-6-11100.00.9103336174000No3,296,873*
5414-8-10100.00.2524362581000No3,694,372*
5314-7-11100.00.021532311540000No4,063,886*
5213-9-1099.90.01825342381000No4,383,697*
5113-8-1199.40.0041530301541000No4,634,285*
5013-7-1297.70.0018233224102000No4,813,532*
4912-9-1193.1No0031328301861000No4,891,487*
4812-8-1283.6No0016193127133000No4,879,522*
4712-7-1368.1No00021024312282000No4,770,188*
4611-9-1248.5No00014152829165100No4,561,491*
4511-8-1329.3No0001720312611300No4,286,496*
4411-7-1414.7No000312263120710No3,940,616*
4310-9-136.1No000151730291430No3,555,244*
4210-8-142.1No00029243323710.0%3,138,496*
4110-7-150.6No00141631311520.02,710,435*
409-9-140.1No0002925362460.12,295,949*
399-8-150.0No0004173533110.51,901,889*
389-7-160.0No002103040181.81,542,022*
378-9-150.0No00152343284.91,220,332*
368-8-16OutNo00216433911.0945,670*
358-7-170.0No000110395020.0715,802*
347-9-16OutNo0006336131.5530,543*
337-8-17OutNo003267044.0383,239*
327-7-18OutNo002207856.6269,367*
316-9-17OutNo01158567.5185,155*
306-8-18OutNo00109076.8124,863*
296-7-19OutNo0079384.081,303*
285-9-18OutNo049689.452,108*
275-8-19OutNo039793.031,811*
265-7-20OutNo029895.919,293*
254-9-19OutNo19997.211,139*
244-8-20OutNo010098.66,319*
234-7-21OutNo010099.23,469*
223-9-20OutNo010099.51,823*
213-8-21OutNo010099.9926*
4-20OutNo100100.09,155*
Total:64.3%4.8%91010109988776541.4%86,771,548

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well FC Dallas finishes out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeMinnesotaSporting KCColoradoSeattleLAFCVancouverRSLPortlandLA GalaxySan JoseHoustonNashville
67-10012.5%Yes
6619-5-812.310000
6518-7-712.51000000000
6418-6-812.5100000000000000
6317-8-712.5100000000000000
6217-7-812.5100000000000000
6117-6-912.4100000000000000
16-9-712.5100000000000000
6016-8-812.599000000000000
17-5-1012.599000000000000
5916-7-912.599000000000000
15-10-712.599000000000000
5816-6-1012.497000000000000
15-9-812.497000000000000
5715-8-912.293111111110000
16-5-1112.394111111100000
5615-7-1012.088111111111111
14-10-812.087112111111111
16-4-1212.089111111111100
5515-6-1111.679222222221111
14-9-911.477333222221111
13-12-711.579222222221111
5414-8-1010.765444333332221
15-5-1210.867444333322211
13-11-810.765444433332221
5314-7-119.650555554443322
13-10-99.548556554443322
15-4-139.852555544443222
5213-9-107.932667665553333
14-6-128.235666665543333
12-12-88.133666665543333
5113-8-116.319677665554333
14-5-136.521777665554333
12-11-96.118777665554333
5013-7-124.510666655543333
12-10-104.28666555543333
14-4-144.610666665544333
4912-9-112.63444444333222
13-6-132.84445444433322
4812-8-121.41333332222211
13-5-141.51333332222211
4712-7-130.60111111111111
4611-9-120.20001000000000
4511-8-130.10000000000000
4411-7-140.00000000000000
4310-9-130.00000000000000
4210-8-140.0000000000000
4110-7-150.00000000000
409-9-14No0
4-39No
Total:4.7%28.02.02.12.11.91.91.71.61.51.21.11.00.9
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 3/7100.0*Lottery seed
FC Dallas 2 Montreal 2 +0.8
Colorado 2 Orlando 1 +0.1
RSL 1 NY Red Bulls 1 -0.1
LAFC 3 Philadelphia 3 -0.1
Seattle 1 Columbus 1 -0.1
San Jose 2 Minnesota 5 +0.0
Sporting KC 4 Houston 0 +0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/14100.0*Lottery seed
NYCFC vs FC Dallas+1.0+0.2-1.7
Atlanta vs Sporting KC-0.0-0.0+0.1
Minnesota vs NY Red Bulls+0.1-0.1-0.1
Columbus vs RSL-0.0-0.0+0.1
New England vs Portland-0.0-0.0+0.1
Miami vs LA Galaxy-0.0-0.0+0.1
Philadelphia vs San Jose-0.0-0.0+0.1
Houston vs Seattle-0.0-0.0+0.1
Toronto FC vs Nashville-0.0-0.0+0.1
Vancouver vs Colorado+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526
82-100100
8124-5-3991
79-80100
7823-5-41000
7723-4-51000
7622-6-410000
7522-5-510000
7422-4-610000
7321-6-59900
7221-5-69910
7120-7-59811
7020-6-697110
6920-5-7962200
6819-7-694330
6719-6-791450
6619-5-88767000
6518-7-781810000
6418-6-8741114010
6317-8-76515190100
6217-7-855182402000
6117-6-9442129140000
6016-8-8322434270100
5916-7-921243741201000
5816-6-10132336817030000
5715-8-9619311223160100
5615-7-10314231728310020000
5515-6-11191419297170400000
5414-8-100561724122328010000
5314-7-11022131617265150400000
5213-9-10010871723112128010000
5113-8-1100032131416246150401000
5013-7-1200010861720122231002000
4912-9-1100003112101723817161000
4812-8-1200010631615152241231000
4712-7-13000002110618191220920000
4611-9-12000010411410182119920000
4511-8-13000001073171523191031000
4411-7-14000003111617242111410000
4310-9-130000105281825221351000
4210-8-140000020281725241562000
4110-7-1500010027172525166100
409-9-140000002717262516610
399-8-15000000281827251440
389-7-160000039213024102
378-9-15000014132632205
368-8-160001619333011
358-7-170000211283820
347-9-160015214132
337-8-170002144044
327-7-1800183557
316-9-170042867
306-8-180022177
296-7-19011584
285-9-1801089
275-8-190793
265-7-200496
254-9-190397
244-8-200199
234-7-21199
223-9-20199
213-8-210100
203-7-220100
192-9-21199
4-18100
Total:54646464645454444333332221