FC Dallas Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 2.6 to 62.1%
18 points   5-3-5

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 5/18100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
FC Dallas 1 LAFC 1 -1.7
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
RSL 2 Atlanta 1 -1.4
-0.1
-0.1
RSL 3 Toronto FC 0 -1.3
-0.1
-0.1
Orlando 0 LA Galaxy 1 -1.0
-0.2
-0.1
San Jose 4 Chicago 1 -1.0
Sporting KC 1 Vancouver 1 +0.9
Minnesota 1 Columbus 0 -0.7
-0.1
-0.1
LA Galaxy 0 Colorado 1 +0.7
+0.2
+0.1
+0.1
Houston 2 DC United 1 -0.2
-0.1
-0.0
LAFC 4 Montreal 2 -0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/25100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Vancouver vs FC Dallas-6.7+0.3+12.3
-0.5-0.1+1.0
-0.0-0.0+0.1
+0.1-0.0-0.1
-0.4-0.0+0.7
Philadelphia vs Portland+0.6-0.2-2.5
+0.0-0.0-0.1
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Toronto FC vs San Jose+0.8+0.0-2.0
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Montreal vs RSL+1.0+0.1-1.7
+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Sporting KC vs Seattle-1.2+0.6+1.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Vancouver vs Toronto FC-1.1+0.6+1.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Atlanta vs Minnesota+0.6-0.1-1.4
+0.1*-0.0-0.2
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Minnesota vs Houston-0.8+0.5+0.9
-0.0+0.1*-0.0
Sporting KC vs LA Galaxy-0.8+0.7+0.8
+0.1+0.0-0.2
Philadelphia vs Colorado+0.1*-0.0-0.2
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Colorado vs Columbus-0.1+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well FC Dallas finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield123456789101112SpoonCount
8121-0-0In99.1%991No25,212
76-77InYes100No26*
7518-3-0In81.68218No49*
7418-2-1In75.27723No137
7318-1-2In78.178220No360*
7217-3-1In70.17129No786*
7117-2-2In64.465340No2,019*
7016-4-1In56.657421No4,128*
6916-3-2In49.250491No8,415*
6816-2-3In40.2425620No17,455*
6715-4-2In31.7346330No32,632*
6615-3-3In24.6286750No60,909*
6515-2-4In17.4217090No107,943*
6414-4-3In11.715711310No183,688*
6314-3-4In7.310691910No307,946*
6213-5-3In4.17652630No494,864*
6113-4-4In2.045833500No769,811*
6013-3-5In0.924940900No1,165,794*
5912-5-4In0.31394514100No1,702,488*
5812-4-5In0.11294721300No2,419,568*
5712-3-6In0.00204529500No3,338,523*
5611-5-5100.0%0.0013403610100No4,458,949*
5511-4-6100.00.007324117200No5,795,063*
5410-6-5100.00.0042442255000No7,326,767*
5310-5-6100.0No0215393310100No8,976,527*
5210-4-799.9No019323917200No10,707,679*
519-6-699.6No0042341266000No12,404,127*
509-5-798.8No02143734111000No13,953,187*
499-4-896.6No0182940193000No15,257,876*
488-6-792.0No0032040297100No16,217,215*
478-5-883.8No00111343714200No16,718,909*
468-4-971.4No0006254023500No16,762,447*
457-6-855.9No00216383211100No16,307,508*
447-5-939.5No0018303819400No15,378,476*
437-4-1024.9No004213828810No14,089,463*
426-6-913.9No0011234361520No12,517,182*
416-5-106.7No000625392450No10,765,256*
406-4-112.9No0031737331000.0%8,974,683*
395-6-101.1No001931401710.07,229,405*
385-5-110.3No00523432720.05,637,076*
375-4-120.1No00215413740.14,244,467*
364-6-110.0No019364780.33,080,651*
354-5-120.0No0042854130.92,154,655*
344-4-130.0No0022058202.41,450,859*
333-6-12OutNo011358285.4937,173*
323-5-13OutNo008553710.4579,834*
313-4-14OutNo04494717.5343,768*
302-6-13OutNo02425626.8193,864*
292-5-14OutNo01356437.5103,924*
282-4-15OutNo0287248.352,209*
271-6-14OutNo0227859.024,926*
261-5-15OutNo0168469.510,972*
251-4-16OutNo0128878.14,591*
241-3-17OutNo109082.01,709*
230-5-16OutNo59589.3591*
220-4-17OutNo29895.3170*
210-3-18OutNo59585.742*
19-20OutNo100Yes11*
180-0-21OutNo010099.325,212
Total:62.1%0.1%025913161614118410.2%243,330,176

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well FC Dallas finishes out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeLAFCSeattleHoustonLA GalaxyMinnesotaRSLPortlandSporting KCSan JoseVancouverColorado
69-8112.4%Yes
6816-2-312.910000
6715-4-212.5100000000
6615-3-312.51000000000
6515-2-412.41000000000000
6414-4-312.3990000000000
6314-3-412.49900000000000
6213-5-312.3970001000000
6113-4-412.39501121100000
6013-3-512.19101132100000
5912-5-411.98502253200000
13-2-611.88502253210000
5812-4-511.47603474310100
11-7-311.37603474310100
5712-3-610.86605696511100
11-6-410.765056106511100
5611-5-59.953078138621100
12-2-710.053078138621100
5511-4-69.04009101510821110
10-7-48.93909101510821110
12-1-89.14008101510821110
5410-6-57.727010121711932210
11-3-77.928010121711932210
5310-5-66.5170111318121032210
11-2-86.7180101319121032210
9-8-46.4160111319121032210
5210-4-75.290101318121032210
9-7-55.190101218121032210
11-1-95.390101318121032210
519-6-63.8409111611932210
10-3-84.0509121611932210
8-9-43.8409111610932210
509-5-72.72079139722210
8-8-52.62079138722210
10-2-92.92079149722210
499-4-81.81057106521110
8-7-61.7105696521110
488-6-71.0003464311100
9-3-91.0003464311100
478-5-80.5002242210000
7-8-60.5002232200000
468-4-90.2001121100000
457-6-80.1000010000000
447-5-90.0000000000000
437-4-100.000000000000
426-6-90.000000000000
416-5-100.00000000000
406-4-110.000000000
396-3-12No0000
18-38No
Total:2.2%7.60.13.13.95.93.83.00.90.70.70.40.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 5/18100.0*Lottery seed
FC Dallas 1 LAFC 1 +0.2
LA Galaxy 0 Colorado 1 -0.1
Orlando 0 LA Galaxy 1 +0.1
RSL 2 Atlanta 1 +0.1
RSL 3 Toronto FC 0 +0.1
Minnesota 1 Columbus 0 +0.1
Sporting KC 1 Vancouver 1 -0.1
Houston 2 DC United 1 +0.1
NY Red Bulls 2 Vancouver 2 -0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/25100.0*Lottery seed
Vancouver vs FC Dallas+0.8+0.0-1.4
Philadelphia vs Portland-0.0+0.0+0.1
Atlanta vs Minnesota-0.0-0.0+0.1
Montreal vs RSL-0.1-0.0+0.1
Toronto FC vs San Jose-0.0-0.0+0.1
Minnesota vs Houston+0.1-0.1-0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L123456789101112131415161718192021222324
8121-0-09901
76-77100
7518-3-08218
7418-2-175123
7318-1-278220
7217-3-170129
7117-2-2641340
7016-4-1571421
6916-3-2491491
6816-2-340256020
6715-4-232363030
6615-3-325367050
6515-2-417370090
6414-4-312370113010
6314-3-47368119010
6213-5-34362226030
6113-4-4225343305000
6013-3-5114364009000
5912-5-401318441140100
5812-4-5002094522103000
5712-3-6001194152805000
5611-5-500583283511001000
5511-4-6002522113921702000
5410-6-50003121237625050000
5310-5-600251029103211001000
5210-4-70012718143541702000
519-6-60000491431925160000
509-5-7000231122153131101000
499-4-80011711183191913000
488-6-700003416241626371000
478-5-800011101321298142000
468-4-900000552024162171000
457-6-8000021141523261440000
447-5-90001087242423102000
437-4-100000421917282182000
426-6-90001012824291861000
416-5-100000063142828154100
406-4-11000316203026113000
395-6-10000102102432228100
385-5-1100000415293116400
375-4-120000172133271010
364-6-11000021128351940
354-5-120001519362991
344-4-1300002113137172
333-6-1200152240265
323-5-1300214383610
313-4-14018314318
302-6-13004234627
292-5-1402154637
282-4-1501104148
271-6-14053559
261-5-15032869
251-4-1622078
241-3-1711782
230-5-161189
220-4-17595
210-3-181486
19-20100
180-0-21199
Total:001132638596978765432110