San Jose Earthquakes Playoff Chances

Lost to Whitecaps 1-3, playoff odds down 10 to 28.3%
25 points   7-4-9

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 7/24100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Whitecaps 3 Earthquakes 1 -6.5
-0.5
-0.2
+0.4
-0.4
Impact 1 Sounders 0 +1.1
+0.1
+0.0
FC Dallas 4 Timbers 1 +0.9
+0.0
Real Salt Lake 2 Sporting KC 1 -0.7
+0.1
+0.1
-0.1
Dynamo 3 Galaxy 0 -0.1
+0.1
+0.1
DC United 3 Union 2 -0.1
Fire 2 Revolution 2 -0.1
NYCFC 5 Orlando 3 +0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 8/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Earthquakes vs Timbers+9.2-6.0-13.0
+0.5-0.3-0.6
+0.1-0.1-0.1
-1.1+0.5+1.8
+0.5-0.3-0.7
Sporting KC vs Dynamo+0.7+0.1-2.0
+0.0+0.0-0.1
DC United vs Real Salt Lake+0.6-0.1-1.9
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Sounders vs Whitecaps-1.0+0.7+1.5
-0.0+0.1+0.0
Rapids vs Galaxy+0.1+0.6-0.7
+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.1-0.0-0.1
Fire vs FC Dallas+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.6-0.2-0.4
Union vs Red Bulls+0.3-0.1-0.3
Toronto FC vs Orlando-0.1+0.0+0.2
NYCFC vs Impact+0.1-0.1-0.1
Revolution vs Toronto FC+0.1-0.0-0.1
Orlando vs Crew+0.2-0.1-0.2

What If

Chances based on how well the Earthquakes finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910SpoonCount
6714-0-0In99.7%10000No11,491,529
6513-1-0In98.39910No146,476
6413-0-1In95.69730No232,936
6312-2-0In93.19540No898,681
6212-1-1In86.2901000No2,816,391
6111-3-0In77.8841510No5,518,541*
6011-2-1In66.07523100No15,468,827
5911-1-2In50.56334400No32,098,565*
5810-3-1In35.24942800No63,017,270*
5710-2-2In20.8354816100No130,814,779*
5610-1-3In9.9214827400No228,473,972*
559-3-2100.0%3.81141379100No399,111,634*
549-2-3100.01.05294519200No673,620,430*
538-4-2100.00.221643327000No1,031,828,756*
528-3-3100.00.0073242162000No1,566,388,465*
518-2-499.60.0021943306000No2,252,626,160*
507-4-398.10.00083341162000No3,041,473,996*
497-3-493.0No0021942297000No4,016,979,321*
487-2-582.2No0008334016200No2,521,440,413
6-5-380.2No0007324117200No2,498,420,191*
476-4-462.1No002184130700No5,970,740,188*
466-3-540.8No001832411720No4,680,304,510
5-6-337.6No000730421820No2,204,832,848*
455-5-420.0No000218423170No4,015,263,973
6-2-621.2No00219423070No3,510,191,562*
445-4-58.6No00183341162No5,508,918,396
6-1-78.0No00083242172No2,354,224,293*
435-3-62.9No000321442850.0%4,979,082,638
4-6-42.4No000219433050.02,937,568,964*
424-5-50.6No001103741120.04,267,853,846
5-2-70.7No001103741120.03,290,130,518*
414-4-60.1No00042648220.04,763,370,577
3-7-40.1No00042548230.02,131,597,102*
404-3-70.0No0011648350.03,602,227,714
3-6-50.0No0011547370.12,426,494,289*
393-5-60.0No000841510.44,986,712,587*
383-4-70.0No00332651.73,925,514,023*
373-3-80.0No00122775.22,942,737,066*
362-5-7OutNo00148612.42,073,125,217*
352-4-8OutNo0089223.31,377,780,090*
342-3-9OutNo0049636.7863,205,937*
331-5-8OutNo029850.8501,058,009*
321-4-9OutNo019964.0269,361,594*
311-3-10OutNo0010074.8133,928,108*
301-2-11OutNo010083.259,671,095*
290-4-10OutNo010089.423,426,717*
280-3-11OutNo010093.58,084,943*
270-2-12OutNo010096.02,253,491
260-1-13OutNo010097.6412,583
250-0-14OutNo10098.711,515,629
Total:28.3%0.2%0125812151819191.9%92,314,455,840

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Earthquakes finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeFC DallasSporting KCWhitecapsGalaxySoundersTimbersDynamoReal Salt LakeRapids
63-6712.5%Yes
6212-1-112.51000
6111-3-012.510000000000
6011-2-112.5100000000000
5911-1-212.5100000000000
5810-3-112.5100000000000
11-0-312.5100000000000
5710-2-212.499000000000
9-5-012.499000000000
5610-1-312.396001111000
9-4-112.396000110000
559-3-212.090111221000
10-0-411.989112321100
8-6-012.091111221000
549-2-311.379223553100
8-5-111.379223553100
538-4-210.161446985211
9-1-410.160446985211
7-7-010.060446985211
528-3-38.54066913127321
7-6-18.43967913127321
9-0-58.438561013127421
518-2-46.621771216158422
7-5-26.520781116149422
6-8-06.319791116159322
507-4-34.68781216159422
8-1-54.78771216159522
6-7-14.47781115149432
497-3-43.02561013137422
6-6-22.8256913127322
8-0-63.02561013127422
487-2-51.70347995321
6-5-31.60346984221
5-8-11.40345874211
476-4-40.70223552111
7-1-60.80224552111
5-7-20.60223442110
466-3-50.30111221000
5-6-30.20111221000
7-0-70.30111221000
455-5-40.10000110000
6-2-60.10000110000
445-4-50.00000000000
6-1-70.00000000000
435-3-60.00000000000
424-5-50.0000000000
414-4-60.0000000000
404-3-70.000000000
394-2-8No0000
25-38No
Total:1.1%3.71.11.22.02.82.71.50.70.40.3
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 7/24100.0*Lottery seed
Whitecaps 3 Earthquakes 1 +0.7
Real Salt Lake 2 Sporting KC 1 +0.1
Impact 1 Sounders 0 -0.1
FC Dallas 4 Timbers 1 -0.0
Dynamo 3 Galaxy 0 +0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 8/1100.0*Lottery seed
Earthquakes vs Timbers-0.9+0.6+1.3
DC United vs Real Salt Lake-0.1+0.0+0.2
Sporting KC vs Dynamo-0.0-0.0+0.1
Sounders vs Whitecaps+0.1-0.1-0.1
Rapids vs Galaxy+0.0-0.1+0.0
Toronto FC vs Orlando-0.0-0.0+0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920
6714-0-0100000
6513-1-098110
6413-0-196130
6312-2-0932400
6212-1-186410000
6111-3-078615010
6011-2-1669230100
5911-1-250123304000
5810-3-135144118000
5710-2-221144621601000
5610-1-310114452604000
559-3-24834837190100
549-2-3142094321902000
538-4-20198394320700000
528-3-3003526642016020000
518-2-4000212641230060000
507-4-30000443034101602000
497-3-4000121544112907000
487-2-5000005331240016200
6-5-3000004329341017200
476-4-4000011153411307000
466-3-5000005331241172000
5-6-3000004328241192000
455-5-40000011153413170000
6-2-6000011163413070000
445-4-500000533141172000
6-1-700000533041182000
435-3-6000001118413071000
4-6-4000001116403291000
424-5-50000062839205100
5-2-70000072940194000
414-4-600000215353213300
3-7-400000213343314300
404-3-700005223626910
3-6-5000041934281220
393-5-600001926352360
383-4-700002133235152
373-3-8000052140285
362-5-7000110354112
352-4-80004244823
342-3-90001144837
331-5-800074251
321-4-90033364
311-3-100012475
301-2-11001783
290-4-10001189
280-3-110793
270-2-120496
260-1-130298
250-0-14199
Total:001021417111114151397642