San Jose Earthquakes Playoff Chances

Tied Union 1-1, playoff odds up 1.3 to 73.1%
15 points   4-3-2

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 4/24100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Earthquakes 1 Sporting KC 0 +7.7
+0.8
+0.9
-0.6
+0.5
Sounders 1 Crew 0 -0.8
-0.1
-0.0
NYCFC 3 Whitecaps 2 +0.7
+0.1
+0.0
Whitecaps 1 Sporting KC 1 +0.7
+0.1
Red Bulls 4 FC Dallas 0 +0.5
+0.1
+0.1
+0.1
+0.1
Union 1 Earthquakes 1 +0.5
-0.1
-0.1
+0.0
Revolution 1 Timbers 1 +0.1
Real Salt Lake 2 Dynamo 1 -0.1
-0.1
Impact 2 Rapids 2 +0.2
Red Bulls 3 Orlando 2 +0.2
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Sounders vs Earthquakes-5.5+0.6+10.1
-0.7-0.0+1.5
-1.3-0.3+2.9
+0.3-0.1-0.4
-0.4+0.0+0.7
Timbers vs Toronto FC-1.0+0.5+1.1
-0.1+0.0+0.1
+0.2+0.1-0.4
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Toronto FC vs FC Dallas+0.5-0.1-1.3
+0.1*-0.0-0.3
-0.2+0.2+0.1
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Sporting KC vs Galaxy-0.8+0.4+0.7
-0.1+0.1+0.0
+0.2+0.1-0.4
Whitecaps vs Timbers-0.3+0.7-0.3
-0.0+0.1-0.0
Dynamo vs Sporting KC+0.1+0.4-0.6
+0.1+0.0-0.2
+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Rapids vs Real Salt Lake-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
Crew vs Impact+0.1+0.0-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Earthquakes finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910SpoonCount
77-90In100.0%100No230,460*
7619-4-2In99.91000No7,776*
7519-3-3In99.91000No16,251*
7418-5-2In99.81000No32,980*
7318-4-3In99.61000No64,102*
7218-3-4In99.41000No120,724*
7117-5-3In99.09910No219,397*
7017-4-4In98.39910No387,682*
6916-6-3In97.39820No667,563*
6816-5-4In95.79730No1,110,445*
6716-4-5In93.396400No1,799,997*
6615-6-4In90.093700No2,831,319*
6515-5-5In85.3901000No4,345,499*
6415-4-6In79.1861410No6,483,654*
6314-6-5In71.38019100No9,419,506*
6214-5-6In61.97325200No13,336,990*
6113-7-5In51.26531400No18,379,452*
6013-6-6In39.85537700No24,682,869*
5913-5-7In28.6454311100No32,309,332*
5812-7-6In18.7354617200No41,231,732*
5712-6-7100.0%10.82546244000No51,258,432*
5612-5-8100.05.41743328100No62,150,095*
5511-7-7100.02.210363814200No73,484,617*
5411-6-8100.00.752741224000No84,665,492*
5310-8-7100.00.221839318100No95,081,730*
5210-7-899.90.01103338162000No104,120,159*
5110-6-999.60.0052440256000No111,107,245*
509-8-898.50.002153734121000No115,546,909*
499-7-995.80.00172839204000No117,107,824*
489-6-1089.8No0031838309100No115,569,184*
478-8-979.5No00110313717300No111,096,024*
468-7-1064.8No0004213927710No104,001,657*
458-6-1147.6No00021234361520No94,740,275*
447-8-1031.2No000625392450No83,962,441*
437-7-1117.9No0021537331110.0%72,352,885*
427-6-129.0No001830401930.060,629,550*
416-8-114.0No000421412960.049,337,337*
406-7-121.5No001133738110.138,968,546*
396-6-130.5No00173044190.629,875,811*
385-8-120.1No00032147282.022,204,206*
375-7-130.0No0011445395.615,980,645*
365-6-140.0No008405112.211,124,721*
354-8-130.0No005346222.17,491,336*
344-7-140.0No002267134.54,864,178*
334-6-15OutNo01197947.93,044,209*
323-8-14OutNo00148660.61,834,752*
313-7-15OutNo0099171.91,065,173*
303-6-16OutNo069480.8590,142*
292-8-15OutNo049687.5312,635*
282-7-16OutNo029892.3158,248*
272-6-17OutNo019995.476,259*
262-5-18OutNo19997.334,511*
251-7-17OutNo010098.714,555*
241-6-18OutNo010099.25,822*
231-5-19OutNo010099.62,127*
15-22OutNo100100.0225,098*
Total:73.1%4.3%71113151413118530.6%1,801,762,560

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Earthquakes finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeRapidsGalaxyReal Salt LakeFC DallasSporting KCSoundersTimbersWhitecapsDynamo
68-9012.5%Yes
6716-4-512.51000
6615-6-412.51000000
6515-5-512.510000000000
6415-4-612.5100000000000
6314-6-512.5100000000000
6214-5-612.5100000000000
6113-7-512.5100000000000
6013-6-612.5100000000000
5913-5-712.599000000000
12-8-512.599000000000
5812-7-612.498000100000
13-4-812.498000000000
5712-6-712.395001110000
11-9-512.396001110000
5612-5-812.191111221110
11-8-612.191111221110
5511-7-711.884222331110
12-4-911.884222331110
5411-6-811.373334552221
10-9-611.374334552221
5310-8-710.559556873331
11-5-910.561546773331
5210-7-89.4446681094442
11-4-109.5466681094442
9-10-69.4447681094442
5110-6-98.12987912115552
9-9-78.02888912115552
11-3-118.33187912115552
509-8-86.516881013126652
10-5-106.717881013126653
8-11-66.617881013126652
499-7-94.9887912116553
10-4-115.29881012126553
8-10-74.98881012116553
489-6-103.5366810105542
8-9-83.436681095542
478-8-92.11446774332
9-5-112.31546874332
468-7-101.20334542221
458-6-110.60112321111
447-8-100.30111111000
437-7-110.10000100000
427-6-120.00000000000
416-8-110.00000000000
406-7-120.0000000000
396-6-130.0000000000
385-8-120.0000000000
376-4-15No00000000
15-36No
Total:5.7%30.93.43.24.25.45.02.52.32.11.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 4/24100.0*Lottery seed
Earthquakes 1 Sporting KC 0 -0.9
Red Bulls 4 FC Dallas 0 -0.1
Whitecaps 1 Sporting KC 1 -0.1
Real Salt Lake 2 Dynamo 1 +0.1
Union 1 Earthquakes 1 -0.0
NYCFC 3 Whitecaps 2 -0.0
Revolution 1 Timbers 1 -0.0
Impact 2 Rapids 2 -0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/1100.0*Lottery seed
Sounders vs Earthquakes+0.7-0.0-1.4
Toronto FC vs FC Dallas-0.1-0.0+0.2
Dynamo vs Sporting KC-0.0-0.0+0.1
Timbers vs Toronto FC+0.1-0.0-0.1
Sporting KC vs Galaxy+0.0-0.1-0.0
Whitecaps vs Timbers+0.0-0.1+0.0
Rapids vs Real Salt Lake+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920
79-90100
7820-3-21000
7720-2-31000
7619-4-210000
7519-3-310000
7418-5-210000
7318-4-310000
7218-3-49900
7117-5-399010
7017-4-498110
6916-6-397120
6816-5-496130
6716-4-59324000
6615-6-49037000
6515-5-585510000
6415-4-679714010
6314-6-5719190100
6214-5-662112502000
6113-7-551143104000
6013-6-640163717000
5913-5-729174111101000
5812-7-619164331702000
5712-6-7111441524040000
5612-5-851135832080100
5511-7-72826103711402000
5411-6-815161138322040000
5310-8-70281034630080100
5210-7-8013725836116020000
5110-6-90014141037325060000
509-8-80002693073311201000
499-7-900012619103722004000
489-6-10000038103263009100
478-8-900001272110362173000
468-7-1000000410113362781000
458-6-1100000139231134163000
447-8-1000000151213332681000
437-7-110000241125331851000
427-6-120000117143129134100
416-8-11000004621322411300
406-7-1200001210253121820
396-6-130000041428301851
385-8-120000016193128132
375-7-1300002102535236
365-6-140001416343412
354-8-13000018274122
344-7-1400004194334
334-6-15001113948
323-8-1400063361
313-7-150032572
303-6-160011881
292-8-15011288
282-7-1600892
272-6-170595
262-5-180397
251-7-17199
241-6-18199
231-5-190100
221-4-200100
15-21100
Total:438310312312311396432211