San Jose Earthquakes Playoff Chances

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 60%
0 points   0-0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/6100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Earthquakes vs Rapids+6.5-4.2-9.8
+0.8-0.5-1.2
+1.6-1.2-2.1
-1.7+1.0+2.7
+0.5-0.3-0.7
Galaxy vs DC United-0.7+0.5+1.0
-0.1+0.1+0.1
*-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Whitecaps vs Impact-0.7+0.5+1.0
-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
FC Dallas vs Union-0.7+0.5+1.0
-0.1+0.1+0.1
*-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Timbers vs Crew-0.7+0.5+1.0
-0.1+0.1+0.1
*-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Dynamo vs Revolution-0.7+0.5+1.0
-0.1+0.1+0.1
*-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Orlando vs Real Salt Lake+0.5*-0.0-1.1
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Real Salt Lake vs Sounders-0.2+0.4-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.1
Dynamo vs FC Dallas-0.2+0.5-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.1
Sounders vs Sporting KC-0.2+0.4-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.0
Rapids vs Galaxy-0.2+0.4-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.1
Sporting KC vs Whitecaps-0.2+0.4-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.1
Fire vs NYCFC-0.0+0.1-0.1
Impact vs Red Bulls-0.0+0.1-0.1
Revolution vs DC United-0.0+0.1-0.1
Red Bulls vs Toronto FC-0.0+0.1-0.1
Crew vs Union-0.0+0.1-0.1
Orlando vs Fire-0.0+0.1-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/13100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Earthquakes vs Timbers+6.5-4.2-9.8
+0.8-0.5-1.2
+1.6-1.2-2.1
-1.7+1.0+2.7
+0.5-0.3-0.7
Galaxy vs Earthquakes-5.0+0.6+10.8
-0.6+0.0+1.4
-1.3-0.2+3.2
+1.2-0.3-2.5
-0.4+0.0+0.8
FC Dallas vs Impact-0.7+0.5+1.0
-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Red Bulls vs Dynamo+0.5*-0.0-1.1
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Timbers vs Real Salt Lake-0.2+0.5-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.1
Sounders vs Whitecaps-0.2+0.5-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.1
Fire vs Crew-0.0+0.1-0.1
NYCFC vs Orlando-0.0+0.1-0.1
NYCFC vs Toronto FC-0.0+0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Earthquakes finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910SpoonCount
77-102In100.0%100No20,793*
7623-7-4In99.91000No1,656*
7523-6-5In100.01000No2,918*
7423-5-6In99.91000No5,215*
7322-7-5In99.81000No8,670*
7222-6-6In99.71000No14,875*
7121-8-5In99.61000No23,524*
7021-7-6In99.41000No37,889*
6921-6-7In99.01000No59,064*
6820-8-6In98.3991No91,240*
6720-7-7In97.3991No135,805*
6620-6-8In96.09910No201,007*
6519-8-7In93.79820No290,787*
6419-7-8In90.59640No411,006*
6318-9-7In86.194600No572,366*
6218-8-8In80.191800No779,901*
6118-7-9In72.1881200No1,044,112*
6017-9-8In62.38217100No1,369,762*
5917-8-9In51.07622200No1,760,221*
5817-7-10In38.86729400No2,225,150*
5716-9-9In26.858356000No2,755,584*
5616-8-10In16.3474111100No3,357,649*
5515-10-9100.0%8.53644173000No4,006,513*
5415-9-10100.03.625442461000No4,696,255*
5315-8-11100.01.1164032112000No5,399,406*
5214-10-10100.00.3932371840000No6,094,591*
5114-9-1199.90.0523372691000No6,746,690*
5014-8-1299.60.02143233164000No7,333,326*
4913-10-1198.50.01723352581000No7,817,819*
4813-9-1295.6No03143132164000No8,180,754*
4713-8-1389.0No0172234259200No8,395,111*
4612-10-1277.4No00313293218500No8,456,205*
4512-9-1361.0No00162134271020No8,345,462*
4412-8-1442.6No00021228341950No8,086,980*
4311-10-1325.9No00152034281010.0%7,676,782*
4211-9-1413.6No00021129351830.07,150,972*
4110-11-136.2No001521372870.16,518,955*
4010-10-142.4No0002133437130.65,835,155*
3910-9-150.8No00172743222.45,112,041*
389-11-140.2No00031945326.54,390,023*
379-10-150.1No00112424413.73,693,112*
369-9-160.0No0017375524.13,032,600*
358-11-150.0No0004306636.52,444,215*
348-10-160.0No002237549.51,923,617*
338-9-170.0No001178261.71,481,547*
327-11-16OutNo00128872.31,117,187*
317-10-17OutNo0089280.6822,655*
307-9-18OutNo0059587.0590,668*
296-11-17OutNo039791.4413,678*
286-10-18OutNo029894.7283,381*
276-9-19OutNo019996.7188,320*
265-11-18OutNo19998.0123,394*
255-10-19OutNo010098.977,245*
245-9-20OutNo010099.447,682*
234-11-19OutNo010099.628,575*
224-10-20OutNo010099.816,302*
214-9-21OutNo010099.99,222*
204-8-22OutNo0100100.05,058*
0-19OutNo100100.024,028*
Total:60.0%5.0%101010101010101010105.0%151,734,720

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Earthquakes finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeFC DallasGalaxyDynamoSporting KCSoundersWhitecapsReal Salt LakeTimbersRapids
64-10212.5%Yes
6318-9-712.510000
6218-8-812.51000000000
6118-7-912.5100000000000
6017-9-812.5100000000000
5917-8-912.5100000000000
5817-7-1012.5100000000000
5716-9-912.5100000000000
17-6-1112.5100000000000
5616-8-1012.499000000000
15-11-812.599000000000
5515-10-912.497000000000
16-7-1112.497000000000
5415-9-1012.394111111111
16-6-1212.394111111111
14-12-812.294111111111
5315-8-1111.988111111111
14-11-911.987111111111
16-5-1312.088111111111
5214-10-1011.477222222222
15-7-1211.579222222222
13-13-811.478222222222
5114-9-1110.664444444444
15-6-1310.765444444444
13-12-910.663444444444
5014-8-129.548555555555
13-11-109.346555555555
15-5-149.448555555555
4913-10-117.730777777777
14-7-137.932777667677
12-13-97.830777777777
4813-9-126.017777777777
12-12-105.916777777777
14-6-146.118777777777
4713-8-134.38666666666
12-11-114.18666666666
4612-10-122.63555555555
13-7-142.63555555555
4512-9-131.41333333333
4412-8-140.70222222222
4311-10-130.30111111111
4211-9-140.10000000000
4111-8-150.00000000000
4010-10-140.00000000000
3910-9-150.0000000000
3810-8-160.0000000000
379-10-150.0000000000
368-12-14No000
359-8-17No0
0-34No
Total:5.0%30.02.22.22.22.22.22.22.22.22.2
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/6100.0*Lottery seed
Earthquakes vs Rapids-0.9+0.6+1.4
Galaxy vs DC United+0.1-0.1-0.1
Orlando vs Real Salt Lake-0.0-0.0+0.1
Whitecaps vs Impact+0.1-0.1-0.1
Timbers vs Crew+0.1-0.1-0.1
FC Dallas vs Union+0.1-0.1-0.1
Dynamo vs Revolution+0.1-0.1-0.1
Rapids vs Galaxy+0.0-0.1+0.0
Dynamo vs FC Dallas+0.0-0.1+0.0
Sounders vs Sporting KC+0.0-0.1+0.0
Real Salt Lake vs Sounders+0.0-0.1+0.0
Sporting KC vs Whitecaps+0.0-0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/13100.0*Lottery seed
Earthquakes vs Timbers-0.9+0.6+1.4
Galaxy vs Earthquakes+0.7-0.1-1.6
FC Dallas vs Impact+0.1-0.1-0.1
Red Bulls vs Dynamo-0.0-0.0+0.1
Sounders vs Whitecaps+0.0-0.1+0.0
Timbers vs Real Salt Lake+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920
82-102100
8125-6-3982
77-80100
7623-7-410000
7523-6-51000
7423-5-610000
7322-7-510000
7222-6-610000
7121-8-510000
7021-7-69900
6921-6-79910
6820-8-69811
6720-7-79721
6620-6-896310
6519-8-7944200
6419-7-8906400
6318-9-78686000
6218-8-880118000
6118-7-97215120000
6017-9-862201701000
5917-8-951252212000
5817-7-1039292724000
5716-9-9273132360000
5616-8-1016313471101000
5515-10-9827321216130000
5415-9-1042226182226010000
5315-8-11115172326510020000
5214-10-100982425111714000000
5114-9-110532018182338010000
5014-8-120211392324915140000
4913-10-1101073201817213801000
4813-9-120031149222291514000
4713-8-1300107220161821492000
4612-10-1200003013722211116510000
4512-9-130001062191420221340000
4412-8-14000020115232022113000
4311-10-13000105118132522113000
4211-9-1400002011518282210200
4110-11-1300010529232921820
4010-10-1400002031326301961
3910-9-150001015173129142
389-11-1400000292435256
379-10-1500000315333514
369-9-160000018264124
358-11-150000003184237
348-10-160001103950
338-9-170000063262
327-11-160032572
317-10-170011881
307-9-18011287
296-11-1700891
286-10-1800595
276-9-1900397
265-11-180298
255-10-190199
245-9-200199
234-11-190100
224-10-200100
214-9-210100
204-8-220100
18-19100
173-8-230100
0-16100
Total:55555555555555555555