San Jose Earthquakes Playoff Chances

Tied Crew 1-1, playoff odds down 2.6 to 18.3%
2 points   0-2-2

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 4/12100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Earthquakes 1 Crew 1 -2.7
-0.3
-0.2
+1.6
-0.2
Toronto FC 0 Rapids 1 -1.2
-0.1
-0.1
FC Dallas 2 Sounders 3 -0.9
-0.1
+0.1
Timbers 1 Chivas USA 1 +0.4
-0.3
Galaxy 1 Whitecaps 0 -0.2
Impact 1 Fire 1 -0.3
New England 2 Dynamo 0 +0.6
DC United 1 Red Bulls 0 +0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Red Bulls vs Union+0.4-0.3-0.5
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 4/19100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Rapids vs Earthquakes-3.5+0.2+8.9
-0.3+0.0+0.8
-0.2-0.0+0.5
+2.5-0.4-5.9
-0.2+0.0+0.5
FC Dallas vs Toronto FC-0.4+0.3+0.7
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Chivas USA vs Sounders+0.0+0.4-0.4
+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.4-0.2-0.5
Whitecaps vs Galaxy-0.3+0.5+0.1
+0.1-0.0-0.1
Real Salt Lake vs Timbers-0.2+0.4+0.1
-0.4+0.1+0.9
Crew vs DC United-0.1+0.0+0.3
Sporting KC vs Impact-0.4+0.0+1.0
Union vs Dynamo+0.0-0.1+0.0
Fire vs New England+0.1-0.1*+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Earthquakes finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910SpoonCount
73-92In100.0%100No397,884*
7222-4-4In99.71000No2,356*
7121-6-3In99.41000No4,731*
7021-5-4In98.71000No9,019*
6921-4-5In98.3991No17,687*
6820-6-4In97.4991No33,117*
6720-5-5In95.99820No60,807*
6619-7-4In93.89730No108,785*
6519-6-5In90.89640No189,072*
6419-5-6In86.694600No321,643*
6318-7-5In80.891900No536,844*
6218-6-6In73.6861300No872,984*
6118-5-7In64.5811810No1,391,844*
6017-7-6In54.07324200No2,170,401*
5917-6-7In42.56531400No3,307,713*
5816-8-6100.0%30.954387000No4,931,988*
5716-7-7100.020.3444312100No7,205,624*
5616-6-8100.011.83346193000No10,294,578*
5515-8-7100.05.82345266000No14,403,379*
5415-7-8100.02.314403411100No19,739,352*
5315-6-999.80.783239183000No26,485,029*
5214-8-899.30.242340267100No34,809,439*
5114-7-998.00.0214353413200No44,825,747*
5014-6-1094.80.0172738225000No56,490,441*
4913-8-988.40.00317373110100No69,725,687*
4813-7-1077.70.0019303819300No84,297,439*
4712-9-962.8No004203929810No99,817,343*
4612-8-1045.7No0011133381520No115,727,907*
4512-7-1129.5No000524412540No131,371,391*
4411-9-1016.7No0002153835910.0%146,013,021*
4311-8-118.3No001831421720.0158,874,760*
4211-7-123.6No000322452640.0169,208,819*
4110-9-111.4No000114423670.0176,383,426*
4010-8-120.4No00073544130.1179,901,571*
3910-7-130.1No00042749200.6179,470,522*
389-9-120.0No0021950292.0175,143,867*
379-8-130.0No0011347395.2167,103,904*
369-7-140.0No0008434910.9155,836,228*
358-9-130.0No005375919.3142,039,121*
348-8-140.0No003306830.0126,448,726*
338-7-150.0No001237541.9109,890,963*
327-9-140.0No001188253.993,220,328*
317-8-15OutNo00138765.077,175,437*
307-7-16OutNo0099174.562,263,496*
296-9-15OutNo0069482.148,947,474*
286-8-16OutNo0049687.937,485,441*
276-7-17OutNo029892.127,914,616*
265-9-16OutNo029895.020,229,421*
255-8-17OutNo019996.914,245,969*
245-7-18OutNo0010098.29,730,238*
234-9-17OutNo010098.96,449,144*
224-8-18OutNo0010099.44,132,441*
214-7-19OutNo010099.62,563,810*
203-9-18OutNo010099.81,536,216*
193-8-19OutNo010099.9885,966*
183-7-20OutNo010099.9491,565*
172-9-19OutNo010099.9261,410*
2-16OutNo100100.0645,423*
Total:18.3%0.4%123581117233014.8%3,024,043,554

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Earthquakes finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeFC DallasRapidsReal Salt LakeGalaxySoundersWhitecapsChivas USATimbers
65-9212.5%Yes
6419-5-612.51000
6318-7-512.5100000
6218-6-612.510000000000
6118-5-712.510000000000
6017-7-612.510000000000
5917-6-712.510000000000
5816-8-612.510000000000
5716-7-712.49900000000
5616-6-812.49700000000
5515-8-712.29411111100
5415-7-811.98822222210
14-10-611.98822222210
5315-6-911.47933333311
14-9-711.47933333311
5214-8-810.66655555521
15-5-1010.66655555521
5114-7-99.45077778732
13-10-79.45077778732
5014-6-108.135999910942
13-9-88.034999910942
4913-8-96.52010101010111043
14-5-116.52010101010111043
12-11-76.52010101011111043
4813-7-104.9109101010111043
12-10-84.8109101010111043
14-4-124.9109101010111043
4712-9-93.4489999943
13-6-113.5489999943
11-12-73.4489999943
4612-8-102.2166777732
13-5-122.2166777732
11-11-82.1166677632
4512-7-111.3044445421
11-10-91.2044445421
4411-9-100.7022233211
12-6-120.7022333211
4311-8-110.3011111110
4211-7-120.1001111100
4110-9-110.0000000000
4010-8-120.0000000000
3910-7-130.0000000000
389-9-120.000000000
379-8-130.000000000
369-7-140.000000000
358-9-130.000000000
348-8-140.00000000
337-10-13No0000
328-6-160.00
2-31No
Total:1.4%5.91.71.81.91.92.01.80.80.5
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 4/12100.0*Lottery seed
Earthquakes 1 Crew 1 +0.4
Toronto FC 0 Rapids 1 +0.1
FC Dallas 2 Sounders 3 +0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 4/19100.0*Lottery seed
Rapids vs Earthquakes+0.5-0.0-1.3

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L12345678910111213141516171819
74-92100
7322-5-31000
7222-4-410000
7121-6-39900
7021-5-49910
6921-4-59811
6820-6-49721
6720-5-596220
6619-7-494430
6519-6-5915400
6419-5-68776000
6318-7-581109000
6218-6-6741313000
6118-5-76416180100
6017-7-654192402000
5917-6-743223014000
5816-8-63124362700000
5716-7-720233941201000
5616-6-8122139718030000
5515-8-7617341126160000
5415-7-821225153221001000
5315-6-917161634518030000
5214-8-80471531926170100
5114-7-9023112213322130200
5014-6-10011612153262205000
4913-8-900034132512302101000
4813-7-100001181415335193000
4712-9-90000451527122891000
4612-8-10000011101617321840000
4512-7-1100000571729281120000
4411-9-10000002213193222820000
4311-8-11000107926301971000
4211-7-120000033142829175100
4110-9-110000011618302714300
4010-8-1200000282231241020
3910-7-1300000031227322061
389-9-120000015183229132
379-8-13000002102635235
369-7-14000001417353311
358-9-1300000210294019
348-8-14000015224330
338-7-15000002144242
327-9-140000183754
317-8-1500053065
307-7-1600022374
296-9-150011782
286-8-160001288
276-7-17000892
265-9-1600595
255-8-1700397
245-7-180298
234-9-170199
224-8-180199
214-7-1900100
203-9-180100
193-8-190100
183-7-200100
172-9-190100
162-8-200100
152-7-210100
142-6-220100
131-8-210100
121-7-220100
2-11100
Total:0111213243677789111215