San Jose Earthquakes Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 1.9 to 14.5%
20 points   5-5-8

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 7/26100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
New England 3 Rapids 0 +0.9
+0.1
Whitecaps 2 FC Dallas 2 +0.7
Impact 2 Timbers 3 -0.6
-0.6
-0.1
Sounders 0 Galaxy 3 -0.4
Real Salt Lake 1 Red Bulls 1 +0.3
Fire 0 Whitecaps 0 +0.2
+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 8/2100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Galaxy vs Earthquakes-3.5*+0.0+9.9
-0.3-0.0+0.8
-0.0-0.0+0.1
+0.6-0.2-1.3
-0.2+0.0+0.6
Earthquakes vs Sounders+5.5-3.0-5.8
+0.4-0.2-0.4
-1.0+0.3+1.4
+0.4-0.2-0.4
Chivas USA vs FC Dallas+0.8+0.5-1.1
+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.1-0.0-0.1
Galaxy vs Timbers+0.4+0.0-1.2
+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Rapids vs Real Salt Lake-0.6+0.6+0.6
Impact vs Toronto FC+0.7-0.2-0.5
Dynamo vs DC United+0.4-0.0-0.2
Fire vs Crew+0.1-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Earthquakes finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910SpoonCount
6816-0-0In95.9%1000No1,561,213
6615-1-0In87.8973No1,454
6515-0-1In80.3964No2,131
6414-2-0In70.99370No11,135
6314-1-1In59.988120No31,534
6213-3-0In46.381190No72,943*
6113-2-1In33.972271No214,111
6013-1-2In22.0623620No459,376*
5912-3-1In13.0504450No1,027,791*
5812-2-2In6.639521000No2,220,371*
5711-4-1In2.827561700No4,254,236*
5611-3-2100.0%1.0175526100No8,257,849*
5511-2-3100.00.3104937400No14,964,752*
5410-4-2100.00.154047800No25,666,867*
5310-3-3100.00.02285316100No43,243,360*
529-5-299.90.01175228300No68,701,883*
519-4-399.60.0084439800No105,172,793*
509-3-498.4No03314717200No156,143,111*
498-5-394.4No01174630500No220,788,599*
488-4-485.4No008364113100No302,033,517*
478-3-569.3No002224526400No398,601,786*
467-5-448.4No011038391210No504,189,882*
457-4-527.8No00424452430No616,746,106*
447-3-612.2No001113939100No364,724,095
6-6-413.0No00112403890No361,924,227*
436-5-54.5No0042747201No822,414,946*
426-4-61.2No0011546344No898,681,874*
415-6-50.2No007374790.0%462,719,210
6-3-70.2No006364890.0481,831,339*
405-5-60.0No0022555170.0603,399,651
6-2-80.0No0022456180.0350,098,332*
395-4-70.0No0011458280.0558,894,647
4-7-50.0No0011456290.0368,128,837*
384-6-60.0No00752410.0441,286,774
5-3-80.0No00753400.0423,617,782*
374-5-70.0No00344530.1773,267,464*
364-4-8OutNo0134650.4663,540,157*
353-6-7OutNo0025751.3544,090,524*
343-5-8OutNo0017823.5425,566,265*
333-4-9OutNo0011897.6317,587,314*
322-6-8OutNo079314.2224,976,308*
312-5-9OutNo049623.2150,717,092*
302-4-10OutNo029834.095,405,641*
292-3-11OutNo19946.056,613,177*
281-5-10OutNo010057.931,262,523*
271-4-11OutNo010068.915,997,526*
261-3-12OutNo010078.37,480,505*
250-5-11OutNo010085.83,134,010*
240-4-12OutNo010091.31,161,793*
20-23OutNo10098.72,033,215*
Total:14.5%0.0%01247111828281.8%11,924,922,028

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Earthquakes finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeSoundersGalaxyReal Salt LakeFC DallasRapidsWhitecapsTimbersChivas USA
61-6812.5%Yes
6013-1-212.6100000000
5912-3-112.5100000000
5812-2-212.510000000000
5711-4-112.510000000000
5611-3-212.49900000000
5511-2-312.39600111100
10-5-112.49700111100
5410-4-212.29200222100
11-1-412.19100222210
5310-3-311.78301344310
9-6-111.78301444310
529-5-211.17112677520
10-2-411.06812687520
519-4-310.15313101110831
10-1-59.94913101111941
8-7-110.15413111110821
509-3-48.733241415141151
8-6-28.935241414141041
10-0-68.530241515151151
498-5-37.319251717161351
9-2-57.117251717171361
7-8-17.419251717161241
488-4-45.68251717171361
7-7-25.78251718171351
9-1-65.36251716161371
478-3-53.92141514141161
7-6-34.03141515141151
6-9-14.03141616141141
9-0-73.52131413131161
467-5-42.5113111110841
8-2-62.3012101010841
6-8-22.5113111110841
457-4-51.3001666521
6-7-31.3002676521
8-1-71.1001555520
447-3-60.5001333210
6-6-40.6001333210
5-9-20.5001333210
436-5-50.2000111100
7-2-70.2000111100
5-8-30.2000111100
426-4-60.1000000000
5-7-40.0000000000
415-6-50.000000000
405-5-60.000000000
395-4-70.000000000
384-6-60.00000000
374-5-70.000000
20-36No
Total:1.0%2.70.20.72.62.62.52.00.90.2
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 7/26100.0*Lottery seed
Impact 2 Timbers 3 +0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Sporting KC vs Union-0.0+0.0+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 8/2100.0*Lottery seed
Galaxy vs Earthquakes+0.5-0.0-1.3
Earthquakes vs Sounders-0.8+0.4+0.9
Galaxy vs Timbers-0.0+0.0+0.1
Dynamo vs DC United+0.1-0.0-0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L12345678910111213141516171819
6816-0-096400
6615-1-088103
6515-0-180164
6414-2-07122700
6314-1-160281200
6213-3-046341810
6113-2-134382521
6013-1-22240314200
5912-3-11337369500
5812-2-2732371510000
5711-4-1324342217000
5611-3-211627282601000
5511-2-30918313614000
5410-4-20510304438000
5310-3-3025234761601000
529-5-20121542102703000
519-4-3000831133818000
509-3-40031713443170200
498-5-3001710406300500
488-4-40002628940113100
478-3-500002139413264000
467-5-40014631738121000
457-4-500013168422540000
447-3-600001563438142000
436-5-500001319402781000
426-4-60000172937206100
415-6-500002133232164000
6-3-700002143332163000
405-5-60000419342911200
395-4-7000018253724600
384-6-600021233361510
5-3-800021334361410
374-5-70000522412740
364-4-80001123640110
353-6-700052647211
343-5-800021547333
333-4-9000840448
322-6-8003305214
312-5-9001205623
302-4-1000125434
292-3-110064846
281-5-100033958
271-4-11013069
261-3-12002178
250-5-1101486
240-4-120991
230-3-130595
220-2-140397
210-1-15199
200-0-160100
Total:0000113162911111112121272