San Jose Earthquakes Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 1.4 to 62.4%
6 points   2-0-2

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 3/28100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Revolution 2 Earthquakes 1 -4.1
-0.6
-1.8
+0.5
-0.3
NYCFC 0 Sporting KC 1 -1.1
-0.1
+0.3
+0.1
-0.1
Real Salt Lake 2 Toronto FC 1 -0.8
-0.1
-0.0
DC United 1 Galaxy 0 +0.5
+0.1
+0.0
Dynamo 0 Rapids 0 +0.4
+0.1
+0.1
FC Dallas 0 Sounders 0 +0.1
+0.1
+0.4
Whitecaps 2 Timbers 1 -0.1
-0.1
Crew 1 Red Bulls 2 -0.2
Impact 2 Orlando 2 +0.1
Fire 1 Union 0 +0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 4/3100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake+6.9-4.2-10.3
+0.8-0.5-1.2
+1.4-1.1-1.9
-0.9+0.5+1.5
+0.5-0.3-0.7
Sporting KC vs Union-0.8+0.6+1.1
-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.0-0.0+0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Rapids vs Revolution-0.6+0.5+1.0
-0.1+0.1+0.2
-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.1+0.0+0.2
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Whitecaps vs Crew-0.6+0.4+0.9
-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.0*+0.0+0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Timbers vs FC Dallas-0.6+0.4+0.5
+0.3+0.1-0.4
+0.1-0.0-0.1
Whitecaps vs Galaxy-0.0+0.4-0.4
-0.0+0.1*-0.0
-0.1+0.1+0.1
Sounders vs Dynamo-0.2+0.5-0.3
-0.0+0.1*-0.0
-0.0+0.1+0.0
Red Bulls vs Impact-0.2+0.2+0.2
-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Orlando vs DC United+0.0+0.1-0.1
Fire vs Toronto FC+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.1-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Earthquakes finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910SpoonCount
77-96InYes100No16,829*
7622-4-4In99.7%1000No731*
7521-6-3In99.91000No1,367*
7421-5-4In99.81000No2,636*
7321-4-5In99.61000No4,797*
7220-6-4In99.41000No8,410*
7120-5-5In99.31000No14,387*
7019-7-4In98.6991No24,270*
6919-6-5In97.89910No39,850*
6819-5-6In96.79820No63,010*
6718-7-5In95.39730No99,071*
6618-6-6In92.89640No152,379*
6518-5-7In89.89460No226,506*
6417-7-6In85.49190No333,044*
6317-6-7In79.6881200No475,540*
6216-8-6In72.4831610No665,597*
6116-7-7In63.4772110No909,720*
6016-6-8In53.27027200No1,217,140*
5915-8-7In42.06234400No1,595,315*
5815-7-8In30.752407000No2,041,997*
5715-6-9In20.4424512100No2,562,529*
5614-8-8In11.9324719300No3,142,209*
5514-7-9100.0%5.92246265000No3,782,859*
5413-9-8100.02.414413410100No4,450,183*
5313-8-9100.00.783339173000No5,131,994*
5213-7-10100.00.2423392671000No5,786,756*
5112-9-999.80.02143533132000No6,388,572*
5012-8-1099.30.0172637226100No6,907,264*
4912-7-1197.60.00317343113200No7,304,578*
4811-9-1093.3No0182636226100No7,553,231*
4711-8-1184.7No00317343113200No7,656,705*
4611-7-1270.9No0018263522610No7,587,858*
4510-9-1153.2No00031633311320No7,358,370*
4410-8-1235.1No001826362360No6,976,249*
4310-7-1320.1No0031635321210.0%6,469,628*
429-9-1210.0No001928382140.05,867,754*
419-8-134.3No000419383180.05,194,724*
408-10-121.6No001113439140.14,502,450*
398-9-130.5No00062645230.73,806,326*
388-8-140.1No00031845342.43,142,650*
377-10-130.0No0011142456.32,536,685*
367-9-140.0No007375712.91,993,637*
357-8-150.0No003306722.41,525,662*
346-10-140.0No002237633.91,140,214*
336-9-15OutNo01168346.2831,720*
326-8-16OutNo00128858.0589,758*
315-10-15OutNo0089268.6406,558*
305-9-16OutNo0059577.3271,710*
295-8-17OutNo039784.2176,168*
284-10-16OutNo029889.2111,525*
274-9-17OutNo019992.868,037*
264-8-18OutNo19995.440,255*
254-7-19OutNo010097.223,022*
243-9-18OutNo010098.312,864*
233-8-19OutNo010098.96,714*
223-7-20OutNo10099.63,464*
212-9-19OutNo010099.71,708*
6-20OutNo100100.017,534*
Total:62.4%4.3%810111111111110982.2%129,222,720

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Earthquakes finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeFC DallasWhitecapsRapidsSoundersReal Salt LakeGalaxyDynamoSporting KCTimbers
64-9612.5%Yes
6317-6-712.5100000
6216-8-612.6100000000000
6116-7-712.5100000000000
6016-6-812.5100000000000
5915-8-712.5100000000000
16-5-912.5100000000000
5815-7-812.5100000000000
14-10-612.5100000000000
5715-6-912.499000000000
14-9-712.599000000000
5614-8-812.497000000000
15-5-1012.497000000000
5514-7-912.294011111110
13-10-712.394111111110
5413-9-812.089122111111
14-6-1012.089121111111
5313-8-911.580233322221
14-5-1111.580233332221
12-11-711.579233332221
5213-7-1010.867344444332
12-10-810.766344444332
14-4-1210.766354444332
5112-9-99.751566666543
13-6-119.751566666543
11-12-79.549576666553
5012-8-108.235688777664
11-11-88.133688777664
13-5-128.134688777664
4912-7-116.620698888765
11-10-96.520698888765
13-4-136.319699888765
4811-9-104.710688887765
12-6-124.810688888765
10-12-84.59588887665
4711-8-113.24476666554
10-11-93.04466666554
12-5-133.04466666554
4611-7-121.81355444443
10-10-101.81344444433
4510-9-110.90233222222
4410-8-120.40111111111
4310-7-130.20000000000
429-9-120.00000000000
419-8-130.00000000000
408-10-120.0000000000
398-9-130.0000000000
388-8-140.0000000000
378-7-150.00000
6-36No
Total:4.9%28.72.03.02.92.82.82.72.42.21.7
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 3/28100.0*Lottery seed
Revolution 2 Earthquakes 1 +0.7
NYCFC 0 Sporting KC 1 +0.1
Real Salt Lake 2 Toronto FC 1 +0.1
Dynamo 0 Rapids 0 -0.1
FC Dallas 0 Sounders 0 -0.1
DC United 1 Galaxy 0 -0.0
Whitecaps 2 Timbers 1 +0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 4/3100.0*Lottery seed
Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake-0.9+0.6+1.3
Whitecaps vs Crew+0.1-0.1-0.1
Rapids vs Revolution+0.1-0.1-0.1
Sporting KC vs Union+0.1-0.1-0.1
Sounders vs Dynamo+0.0-0.1+0.0
Whitecaps vs Galaxy+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920
77-96100
7622-4-410000
7521-6-31000
7421-5-410000
7321-4-510000
7220-6-49900
7120-5-59900
7019-7-49911
6919-6-598110
6819-5-697120
6718-7-595230
6618-6-6933400
6518-5-7904600
6417-7-6856900
6317-6-780812000
6216-8-6721116010
6116-7-7631421010
6016-6-853172702000
5915-8-742203314000
5815-7-83121382700000
5715-6-92022414120100
5614-8-812204071803000
5514-7-9616351125150000
5413-9-821226153221001000
5313-8-917161734517030000
5213-7-1004816309251701000
5112-9-902312211431313020000
5012-8-100117111531622060100
4912-7-1100034132312292130200
4811-9-100011812153062106100
4711-8-11000034132211292132000
4611-7-120001181115306226100
4510-9-11000003413211229143000
4410-8-120001181115302591000
4310-7-130000341322322061000
429-9-12000118112830154100
419-8-13000004418312613300
408-10-120001182231241020
398-9-130000031226312061
388-8-140000015173130142
377-10-130000282435256
367-9-140000315333513
357-8-1500018274122
346-10-1400004194334
336-9-15002124046
326-8-1600173558
315-10-150032869
305-9-160022177
295-8-170011584
284-10-16001089
274-9-170793
264-8-180595
254-7-190397
243-9-180298
233-8-190199
223-7-200100
212-9-190100
202-8-200100
192-7-21100
182-6-22199
6-17100
Total:43647483838387654432