San Jose Earthquakes Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.0009 to 46%
31 points   7-10-7

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 8/21100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Sounders 3 Timbers 1 +1.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Crew vs Earthquakes-8.9-0.4+17.3
-0.4-0.1+0.9
-0.0-0.0+0.1
+0.2-0.1-0.2
-0.3-0.0+0.7
Earthquakes vs Revolution+9.3-8.5-16.4
+0.4-0.4-0.7
-0.2+0.0+0.6
+0.4-0.3-0.7
Dynamo vs Sounders+2.0+0.4-4.9
+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Union vs Sporting KC+1.5-0.4-2.9
+0.1-0.0-0.3
+0.1-0.0-0.1
Galaxy vs Whitecaps+0.6-0.2-2.8
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Real Salt Lake vs Rapids-0.5+0.1+0.6
-0.1+0.1+0.2
Dynamo vs FC Dallas-0.6+0.3+0.6
Fire vs Galaxy+0.1*-0.0-0.1
+0.1-0.0-0.1
Crew vs Union+0.1-0.0-0.1
DC United vs Fire-0.0-0.0+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 8/28100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
FC Dallas vs Timbers+2.2+0.0-5.7
+0.1+0.0-0.2
Timbers vs Sounders-0.5+2.6-2.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
Whitecaps vs Red Bulls-1.6+0.6+1.3
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Galaxy vs Crew-0.1+0.1+0.2
-0.0+0.0+0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Revolution vs Rapids+0.1-0.0-0.0
Red Bulls vs Revolution-0.0+0.0+0.1
Fire vs Union+0.1-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Earthquakes finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910SpoonCount
6110-0-0In80.1%821810No8,207,199
599-1-0In49.25639500No6,443,010
589-0-1In31.138471410No10,285,294
578-2-0In16.325502230No27,367,887
568-1-1In6.3114237900No86,047,438
557-3-0In1.9530451910No134,107,918*
547-2-1100.0%0.31174533400No311,544,450
537-1-2100.00.00734471100No580,862,324*
526-3-1100.00.002225323000No640,153,553
7-0-3100.00.002225322100No238,406,548
516-2-2100.00.000104739300No1,545,991,391*
506-1-399.70.000334521000No1,407,792,737
5-4-199.80.00043554700No822,340,756
495-3-298.7No001195920100No2,405,343,792
6-0-498.6No001205621100No587,045,703*
485-2-394.7No0085037500No3,455,832,981
4-5-195.9No0095531400No685,048,004
474-4-287.8No003394612100No2,448,378,731
5-1-486.4No003344913100No2,470,045,441*
464-3-372.5No01215125300No4,577,125,177
5-0-572.1No01195325300No669,589,860
3-6-175.3No01255022200No370,447,774
454-2-452.5No0084439800No4,709,292,616
3-5-255.1No00104537700No1,563,822,002*
443-4-333.7No00331481810No3,540,923,648
4-1-533.0No00231481810No2,646,963,022*
433-3-416.4No0116473240No4,735,551,117
2-6-217.5No0117473140No600,110,848
4-0-617.1No0017483140No549,314,684*
423-2-56.5No00637451110.0%3,705,524,425
2-5-36.7No00737451110.01,628,169,101*
412-4-41.9No0222502320.02,617,107,559
3-1-62.1No0223502320.01,567,869,408
1-7-21.9No0222512320.0129,685,071*
402-3-50.4No0010453870.02,665,096,673
1-6-30.4No0010453870.0394,824,765
3-0-70.5No0112463760.0278,346,801*
392-2-60.1No0043249150.01,651,927,648
1-5-40.0No033249150.0767,632,930*
381-4-50.0No011953280.3940,347,796
2-1-70.0No012054260.2610,220,492*
371-3-60.0No00949421.5760,479,898
0-6-40.0No001050401.4172,804,033*
361-2-70.0No00441555.4385,199,856
0-5-5OutNo0339576.2130,496,484
350-4-6OutNo01316814.7240,256,203*
340-3-7OutNo00217930.099,566,370*
330-2-8OutNo0148647.836,381,846
320-1-9OutNo0109064.18,942,759
310-0-10OutNo69478.98,506,297
Total:46.0%0.0%0016162223181030.2%60,633,772,320

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Earthquakes finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeFC DallasRapidsGalaxyReal Salt LakeSporting KCSoundersTimbersWhitecapsDynamo
6110-0-012.5%100000000
599-1-012.5100000000000
589-0-112.599000100000
578-2-012.497000200000
568-1-112.191111510000
557-3-011.7821221021100
8-0-211.5792121131100
547-2-110.7633341851100
537-1-29.3416572792200
6-4-09.5445762772200
526-3-18.024881034113200
7-0-38.024851033143200
516-2-26.410971238143300
5-5-06.6118111139113300
506-1-34.93961237153200
5-4-15.14991239133300
495-3-23.71861135123200
6-0-43.61941132153200
4-6-03.918101137103300
485-2-32.407492792100
4-5-12.607693082200
474-4-21.505362051100
5-1-41.405261761100
3-7-01.705672351100
464-3-30.703131120000
5-0-50.70313930000
3-6-10.903341320000
454-2-40.30101410000
3-5-20.40112610000
2-8-00.40222710000
443-4-30.10001200000
4-1-50.10000100000
2-7-10.1101200000
433-3-40.0000000000
2-6-20.0000000000
4-0-60.0000000000
1-9-00.0000100000
423-2-50.0000000000
2-5-30.0000000000
1-8-10.0000000
412-4-40.0000000
3-1-60.0000000
1-7-20.000000
0-10-0No000
402-3-50.000000
1-6-30.000000
3-0-70.000000
392-2-60.0000
31-38No
Total:1.2%1.92.41.63.210.03.10.70.50.10.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 8/21100.0*Lottery seed
Sounders 3 Timbers 1 -0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Earthquakes vs Revolution-0.7+0.6+1.3
Crew vs Earthquakes+0.7+0.0-1.3
Union vs Sporting KC-0.1+0.0+0.2
Dynamo vs Sounders-0.1-0.0+0.2
Galaxy vs Whitecaps-0.0-0.0+0.1
Real Salt Lake vs Rapids+0.1-0.0-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 8/28100.0*Lottery seed
FC Dallas vs Timbers-0.1-0.0+0.2
Whitecaps vs Red Bulls+0.1-0.0-0.1
Timbers vs Sounders+0.0-0.1+0.0
NYCFC vs DC United-0.0-0.0+0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920
6110-0-080218010
599-1-04973905000
589-0-131747014010
578-2-016948222030
568-1-1653933709000
557-3-02326445019010
547-2-101125431330400
537-1-2004332347011000
526-3-10012174521230000
7-0-30011183530220100
516-2-20000634523903000
506-1-300002230452010000
5-4-10000123145307000
495-3-200001145572200100
6-0-400001155551210100
485-2-3000044464360500
4-5-1000054515310400
474-4-20001231846012100
5-1-40001228649013100
464-3-3000113850225300
5-0-5000112651125300
3-6-10001151048222200
454-2-4000035404398000
3-5-200046405377000
443-4-30001323747181000
4-1-50001224648181000
433-3-4000197443360000
2-6-2000197443260000
4-0-60000116463250000
423-2-50003431441620000
2-5-30002430441730000
412-4-40002144031102000
3-1-6000216423091000
1-7-20002144031112000
402-3-5000052538247100
1-6-300042437258100
3-0-700062838216100
392-2-6000111303419510
1-5-40019283421610
381-4-500021330331740
2-1-700031632311530
371-3-600004183431122
0-6-40005193430111
361-2-7000172437255
0-5-500162238276
350-4-6000212333915
340-3-70004214530
330-2-8001104148
320-1-900043164
310-0-100012079
Total:000010511332022115853210