San Jose Earthquakes Playoff Chances

Tied Rapids 0-0, playoff odds down 0.5 to 17.7%
3 points   0-3-2

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 4/19100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Whitecaps 2 Galaxy 2 +0.5
Chivas USA 1 Sounders 2 -0.4
-0.5
FC Dallas 2 Toronto FC 1 -0.4
Real Salt Lake 1 Timbers 0 -0.3
-0.4
Rapids 0 Earthquakes 0 +0.2
-0.0
-0.4
+0.0
Sporting KC 4 Impact 0 -0.5
Union 0 Dynamo 0 -0.1
Fire 1 New England 1 -0.2
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 4/26100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Earthquakes vs Chivas USA+4.2-3.2-6.3
+0.3-0.3-0.5
+0.1-0.1-0.2
-3.4+2.2+5.9
+0.3-0.2-0.5
Real Salt Lake vs Whitecaps+0.1+0.3-0.7
-0.0*+0.0+0.1
DC United vs FC Dallas+0.3+0.0-0.5
+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.1-0.0-0.2
Dynamo vs Timbers+0.2+0.0-0.5
-0.3*-0.0+0.7
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Sounders vs Rapids-0.2+0.3-0.1
Crew vs Red Bulls-0.1+0.0+0.3
New England vs Sporting KC+0.3-0.1-0.2
Impact vs Union+0.8-0.4-0.9

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Earthquakes finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910SpoonCount
73-90In100.0%100No37,247*
7222-3-4In99.3991No145*
7121-5-3In99.6100No277*
7021-4-4In98.81000No581*
6920-6-3In97.91000No1,213*
6820-5-4In96.7991No2,226*
6720-4-5In95.0982No4,276*
6619-6-4In92.09640No7,756*
6519-5-5In89.09550No13,939*
6418-7-4In83.39280No23,898*
6318-6-5In76.5881200No40,957*
6218-5-6In68.3821710No67,987*
6117-7-5In58.4762320No111,266*
6017-6-6In47.46829300No175,255*
5917-5-7In35.95836600No272,180*
5816-7-6In25.047421010No410,939*
5716-6-7100.0%15.6364616200No609,534*
5615-8-6100.08.5264624400No882,156*
5515-7-7100.03.91743328100No1,251,067*
5415-6-899.91.510363814200No1,734,257*
5314-8-799.70.45274123500No2,353,974*
5214-7-899.00.1217393110100No3,124,812*
5114-6-997.20.0110323817300No4,056,375*
5013-8-893.30.005233926600No5,158,186*
4913-7-986.1No021436351310No6,415,460*
4812-9-875.0No017274021300No7,810,866*
4712-8-960.5No003183931800No9,306,697*
4612-7-1044.5No0011033401510No10,846,465*
4511-9-929.4No000524432430No12,373,482*
4411-8-1017.4No00215413560No13,801,532*
4311-7-119.1No00193543121No15,074,504*
4210-9-104.3No000426482020.0%16,097,748*
4110-8-111.8No00218482940.016,816,536*
4010-7-120.6No00111443870.017,165,491*
399-9-110.2No0063745120.217,131,697*
389-8-120.1No0032949190.816,702,253*
379-7-130.0No0012151272.315,932,093*
368-9-120.0No011449365.714,821,365*
358-8-130.0No009454611.313,468,661*
348-7-140.0No006395519.611,953,856*
337-9-130.0No003336430.010,333,040*
327-8-14OutNo02267241.58,723,896*
317-7-15OutNo01207953.27,173,240*
306-9-14OutNo00158564.05,751,755*
296-8-15OutNo00109073.54,482,471*
286-7-16OutNo0079381.13,399,814*
275-9-15OutNo059587.02,506,592*
265-8-16OutNo039791.31,794,010*
255-7-17OutNo029894.41,246,219*
244-9-16OutNo019996.5839,541*
234-8-17OutNo19997.9547,254*
224-7-18OutNo010098.7344,058*
213-9-17OutNo010099.3208,410*
203-8-18OutNo010099.6122,526*
193-7-19OutNo010099.869,118*
182-9-18OutNo010099.836,990*
172-8-19OutNo010099.919,139*
3-16OutNo100100.054,038*
Total:17.7%0.3%113581321242411.5%283,711,320

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Earthquakes finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeFC DallasReal Salt LakeSoundersRapidsGalaxyWhitecapsChivas USATimbers
64-9012.7%Yes
6318-6-512.410000
6218-5-612.610000000
6117-7-512.41000000000
6017-6-612.410000000000
5917-5-712.510000000000
5816-7-612.49900000000
5716-6-712.49800000000
5615-8-612.39611111100
5515-7-712.09111222100
5415-6-811.58422333200
14-9-611.68322333200
5314-8-710.97244555410
15-5-910.97344555410
5214-7-810.05866777511
13-10-69.95866777511
15-4-1010.05966777511
5114-6-98.743889910721
13-9-78.74288101010721
5013-8-87.327910111111921
14-5-107.428910111111922
12-11-67.327910111112921
4913-7-95.81610101212121032
12-10-75.81510101212121032
14-4-115.91610101212121032
4812-9-84.37910111112932
13-6-104.48910111212932
11-12-64.37910121212932
4712-8-93.1388101010822
13-5-113.1388101010822
11-11-73.1388101010822
4612-7-102.0166778621
11-10-82.0166777621
13-4-122.0166788621
4511-9-91.2044555411
12-6-111.2044555411
4411-8-100.7022333211
12-5-120.7023333211
4311-7-110.3011222100
4210-9-100.2011111100
4110-8-110.1000000000
4010-7-120.0000000000
399-9-110.000000000
389-8-120.000000000
379-7-130.000000000
368-9-120.00000000
358-8-130.0000000
347-10-12No0000
337-9-13No00
3-32No
Total:1.2%4.91.71.92.22.22.21.70.50.4
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 4/19100.0*Lottery seed
Rapids 0 Earthquakes 0 -0.0
Sporting KC 4 Impact 0 -0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 4/26100.0*Lottery seed
Earthquakes vs Chivas USA-0.7+0.5+1.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L12345678910111213141516171819
74-90100
7322-4-3982
7222-3-4991
7121-5-31000
7021-4-49910
6920-6-39820
6820-5-49721
6720-4-59532
6619-6-492440
6519-5-5896500
6418-7-4838800
6318-6-5761112000
6218-5-6681417010
6117-7-55817220200
6017-6-64720291300
5917-5-736223516000
5816-7-6252239310010
5716-6-716204151602000
5615-8-69173882304000
5515-7-7413311131180100
5415-6-81822143521402000
5314-8-70513143652205000
5214-7-802612309301100100
5114-6-901282012353170300
5013-8-800041013336260600
4913-7-9002410251133213100
4812-9-800116141335521400
4712-8-90000361229103091000
4612-7-1000001191815351730000
4511-9-9000004816332881000
4411-8-100000231323341961000
4311-7-11000118123029154100
4210-9-100000045203126123000
4110-8-1100002192431229200
4010-7-1200010313273118510
399-9-110000161831281330
389-8-1200002924332371
379-7-13000004153132152
368-9-120000182436256
358-8-130000316353411
348-7-14000019294120
337-9-1300004214430
327-8-140002144342
317-7-1500183853
306-9-1400043164
296-8-150022473
286-7-160011881
275-9-15001387
265-8-1600891
255-7-1700694
244-9-1600396
234-8-170298
224-7-180199
213-9-170199
203-8-180100
193-7-190100
182-9-180100
172-8-190100
162-7-200100
152-6-210100
3-14100
Total:00112132537878910111112