San Jose Earthquakes Playoff Chances

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 54.6%
0 points   0-0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/3100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Earthquakes vs Impact+6.2-4.4-8.9
+0.7-0.5-1.0
+1.5-1.1-2.0
-1.6+0.9+2.5
+0.5-0.3-0.7
Rapids vs Revolution-0.6+0.4+0.9
-0.1+0.0+0.1
*-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Whitecaps vs Union-0.6+0.4+0.9
-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Real Salt Lake vs Toronto FC-0.6+0.4+0.9
-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
DC United vs Sporting KC+0.4*-0.0-1.0
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Dynamo vs Sounders-0.2+0.4-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.1
Galaxy vs FC Dallas-0.2+0.4-0.2
-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.1
Timbers vs Minnesota-0.2+0.4-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.1
Orlando vs NYCFC-0.0+0.1-0.1
Atlanta vs Red Bulls-0.0+0.1-0.1
Crew vs Fire-0.0+0.1-0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/11100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Earthquakes vs Whitecaps+6.7-4.4-10.0
+0.8-0.5-1.1
+1.5-1.1-2.0
-1.6+0.9+2.5
+0.5-0.3-0.8
Minnesota vs Atlanta-0.6+0.4+0.9
-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Dynamo vs Crew-0.6+0.4+0.9
-0.1+0.1+0.1
*-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Impact vs Sounders+0.4*-0.0-1.0
+0.1*-0.0-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Red Bulls vs Rapids+0.5*-0.0-1.0
+0.1*-0.0-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Fire vs Real Salt Lake+0.4*+0.0-1.0
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Galaxy vs Timbers-0.2+0.4-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.0
Sporting KC vs FC Dallas-0.2+0.4-0.2
-0.0+0.1-0.0
Union vs Toronto FC-0.0+0.1-0.0
NYCFC vs DC United-0.0+0.1-0.0
Revolution vs Orlando-0.0+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Earthquakes finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield1234567891011SpoonCount
77-102InYes100No19,640*
7623-7-4In99.8%1000No1,677*
7523-6-5In100.0100No3,045*
7423-5-6In99.91000No5,246*
7322-7-5In99.81000No8,992*
7222-6-6In99.71000No15,033*
7121-8-5In99.51000No24,245*
7021-7-6In99.41000No38,753*
6921-6-7In98.81000No60,996*
6820-8-6In98.29910No93,021*
6720-7-7In97.0991No140,440*
6620-6-8In95.39820No206,595*
6519-8-7In92.99730No297,526*
6419-7-8In89.295400No421,186*
6318-9-7In84.393700No586,035*
6218-8-8In77.6901000No798,231*
6118-7-9In69.18614100No1,066,766*
6017-9-8In58.78019100No1,402,661*
5917-8-9In46.872253000No1,807,385*
5817-7-10In34.563315000No2,281,535*
5716-9-9In22.853379100No2,828,099*
5616-8-10100.0%13.14242142000No3,438,411*
5515-10-9100.06.33144214000No4,108,132*
5415-9-10100.02.421412881000No4,815,640*
5315-8-11100.00.7133534143000No5,536,521*
5214-10-1099.90.1727362271000No6,249,003*
5114-9-1199.60.03183329133000No6,918,785*
5014-8-1298.60.011026332171000No7,516,940*
4913-10-1195.8No04173129144000No8,019,732*
4813-9-1289.5No02924322392000No8,392,683*
4713-8-1377.8No004152930175100No8,614,819*
4612-10-1261.1No001721312511200No8,674,123*
4512-9-1341.9No000312273120610No8,559,462*
4412-8-1424.6No000161831281330No8,292,880*
4311-10-1312.2No000210253322710.0%7,872,571*
4211-9-145.1No000141632311420.07,336,303*
4110-11-131.8No0002925362350.16,691,127*
4010-10-140.5No0004173532100.45,980,518*
3910-9-150.1No0002103040181.55,239,640*
389-11-140.0No00152343284.74,499,395*
379-10-150.0No000215433910.83,781,275*
369-9-160.0No0019395120.13,112,347*
358-11-150.0No0005336232.12,508,352*
348-10-16OutNo003267145.21,971,826*
338-9-17OutNo001197958.01,520,505*
327-11-16OutNo001148669.31,145,265*
317-10-17OutNo0099078.4841,587*
307-9-18OutNo0069485.3604,885*
296-11-17OutNo049690.3424,238*
286-10-18OutNo029894.0289,574*
276-9-19OutNo019996.3193,083*
265-11-18OutNo019997.7125,277*
255-10-19OutNo010098.779,616*
245-9-20OutNo010099.348,744*
234-11-19OutNo010099.528,913*
224-10-20OutNo010099.717,126*
214-9-21OutNo010099.99,456*
204-8-22OutNo010099.95,146*
0-19OutNo100100.022,909*
Total:54.6%4.5%999999999994.5%155,593,916

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Earthquakes finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeMinnesotaRapidsSoundersDynamoFC DallasGalaxyTimbersReal Salt LakeSporting KCWhitecaps
65-10212.5%Yes
6419-7-812.51000
6318-9-712.6100000
6218-8-812.51000000000000
6118-7-912.51000000000000
6017-9-812.51000000000000
5917-8-912.51000000000000
5817-7-1012.61000000000000
16-10-812.51000000000000
5716-9-912.5990000000000
17-6-1112.5990000000000
5616-8-1012.5980000000000
15-11-812.5980000000000
5515-10-912.3950000000000
16-7-1112.3960000000000
5415-9-1012.1901111111111
16-6-1212.1911111111111
14-12-812.0901111111111
5315-8-1111.7832222222222
14-11-911.6812222222222
16-5-1311.7832222222222
5214-10-1010.9693333333333
15-7-1211.0713333333333
13-13-810.9703333333333
5114-9-119.8544444444444
15-6-1310.0564444444444
13-12-99.7534444444444
5014-8-128.4385555555555
13-11-108.2366665655666
15-5-148.5385555555555
4913-10-116.5216666666666
14-7-136.8246666666666
12-13-96.4216666666666
4813-9-124.7116666666666
12-12-104.4105555655555
14-6-144.8126666666666
4713-8-133.154445444444
12-11-112.944444444444
4612-10-121.613333333333
13-7-141.613333333333
4512-9-130.801222222222
4412-8-140.301111111111
4311-10-130.100000000000
4211-9-140.000000000000
4111-8-150.000000000000
4010-10-140.00000000000
3910-9-150.00000000000
3810-8-160.00000000000
379-10-15No0000
0-36No
Total:4.5%27.31.81.81.81.81.81.81.81.81.81.8
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/3100.0*Lottery seed
Earthquakes vs Impact-1.0+0.7+1.4
Rapids vs Revolution+0.1-0.1-0.1
Real Salt Lake vs Toronto FC+0.1-0.1-0.1
Whitecaps vs Union+0.1-0.1-0.1
DC United vs Sporting KC-0.0-0.0+0.1
Galaxy vs FC Dallas+0.0-0.1+0.0
Dynamo vs Sounders+0.0-0.1+0.0
Timbers vs Minnesota+0.0-0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/11100.0*Lottery seed
Earthquakes vs Whitecaps-1.0+0.7+1.5
Minnesota vs Atlanta+0.1-0.1-0.1
Impact vs Sounders-0.0-0.0+0.1
Dynamo vs Crew+0.1-0.1-0.1
Red Bulls vs Rapids-0.0-0.0+0.1
Fire vs Real Salt Lake-0.0-0.0+0.1
Galaxy vs Timbers+0.0-0.1+0.0
Sporting KC vs FC Dallas+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L12345678910111213141516171819202122
77-102100
7623-7-410000
7523-6-51000
7423-5-610000
7322-7-510000
7222-6-610000
7121-8-510000
7021-7-69900
6921-6-79910
6820-8-698110
6720-7-79721
6620-6-895320
6519-8-7934300
6419-7-88964000
6318-9-78497000
6218-8-8781210000
6118-7-96916140100
6017-9-859211901000
5917-8-9472624130000
5817-7-10342929250000
5716-9-92330335801000
5616-8-10132933913020000
5515-10-96252914191400000
5415-9-1021921202438010000
5315-8-111121223268140300000
5214-10-100752222152027010000
5114-9-1103116132023613030000
5014-8-12010105212013192701000
4913-10-1100411611202271414000
4813-9-12002094201715203920000
4713-8-130000411482120916610000
4612-10-1200010721913182113410000
4512-9-130000301252118221341000
4412-8-1400001061171022231451000
4311-10-1300000201041424251551000
4211-9-14000010415152626156100
4110-11-130000201617272615510
4010-10-1400000271928261340
3910-9-1500000029223125102
389-11-140000013122733205
379-10-15000001518343111
369-9-160000210283920
358-11-1500015204232
348-10-160002134045
338-9-1700173458
327-11-160042769
317-10-170022078
307-9-18011485
296-11-17000990
286-10-1800694
276-9-1900496
265-11-180298
255-10-190199
245-9-20199
234-11-1900100
224-10-200100
214-9-210100
204-8-220100
193-10-210100
183-9-220100
0-17100
Total:5555555555555555555555