San Jose Earthquakes Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 1.7 to 44.4%
9 points   3-0-4

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 4/17100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Red Bulls 2 Earthquakes 0 -4.5
-0.5
-1.3
+0.7
-0.3
NYCFC 0 Timbers 1 -1.3
-0.1
+0.1
-0.1
FC Dallas 3 Toronto FC 2 -0.8
-0.1
-0.1
Galaxy 2 Sporting KC 1 -0.2
Rapids 1 Sounders 3 -0.1
Real Salt Lake 0 Whitecaps 1 *+0.1
DC United 1 Dynamo 1 +0.1
Union 1 Revolution 2 -0.1
Crew 3 Orlando 0 +0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 4/24100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Red Bulls vs Rapids+0.6-0.0-1.4
+0.0*+0.0-0.1
-0.1+0.1+0.2
-0.1+0.0+0.1
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Revolution vs Real Salt Lake+0.6*-0.0-1.3
+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Red Bulls vs Galaxy+0.5-0.1-1.4
+0.1-0.0-0.1
-0.1+0.1+0.1
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Sounders vs Timbers+0.0+0.3-0.6
-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.1+0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Whitecaps vs DC United-0.4+0.3+0.6
-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.1+0.1+0.0
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Dynamo vs Sporting KC-0.2+0.6-0.3
-0.0+0.1+0.0
-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Rapids vs FC Dallas-0.2+0.5-0.2
+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.1-0.1-0.1
Crew vs Union-0.0+0.0+0.1
-0.2+0.0+0.4
Orlando vs Toronto FC+0.0-0.1*+0.0
Fire vs NYCFC*+0.0-0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Earthquakes finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910SpoonCount
74-90In100.0%100No333,612*
7320-4-3In99.81000No6,585*
7220-3-4In99.41000No13,831*
7119-5-3In99.11000No27,440*
7019-4-4In98.61000No52,518*
6918-6-3In97.9991No98,293*
6818-5-4In96.99910No177,252*
6718-4-5In95.29910No314,585*
6617-6-4In92.99820No540,741*
6517-5-5In89.79730No903,008*
6417-4-6In85.495500No1,476,469*
6316-6-5In79.792800No2,346,570*
6216-5-6In72.4881100No3,638,665*
6115-7-5In63.58316100No5,507,463*
6015-6-6In53.37722100No8,134,350*
5915-5-7In42.16928300No11,724,647*
5814-7-6In30.859355000No16,507,788*
5714-6-7100.0%20.44841101000No22,677,679*
5614-5-8100.011.93745162000No30,431,821*
5513-7-7100.05.92646234000No39,897,064*
5413-6-8100.02.317423191000No51,055,946*
5312-8-7100.00.793437163000No63,858,396*
5212-7-8100.00.252439257100No77,996,582*
5112-6-999.80.02153533132000No93,062,260*
5011-8-899.20.0172637236100No108,461,354*
4911-7-997.20.003163432143000No123,466,491*
4811-6-1092.10.00172536247100No137,282,714*
4710-8-981.8No00314323215300No149,039,633*
4610-7-1065.7No0017233625810No158,010,556*
4510-6-1146.4No00021331341630No163,571,674*
449-8-1028.1No0001622362781No165,220,502*
439-7-1114.5No00021232361620.0%162,924,133*
429-6-126.3No0001623392650.0156,711,426*
418-8-112.4No0002143636110.0147,015,923*
408-7-120.7No00172943200.1134,467,008*
397-9-110.2No00032046300.7119,902,031*
387-8-120.0No00011344422.4104,131,016*
377-7-130.0No000738546.188,091,002*
366-9-120.0No0004316512.672,512,701*
356-8-130.0No002237522.058,057,426*
346-7-140.0No001178233.545,197,496*
335-9-130.0No000128845.834,159,389*
325-8-14OutNo0089257.825,072,793*
315-7-15OutNo0059568.417,842,110*
304-9-14OutNo0039777.212,295,209*
294-8-15OutNo0029884.28,202,849*
284-7-16OutNo019989.45,282,251*
274-6-17OutNo019993.13,288,536*
263-8-16OutNo0010095.61,969,534*
253-7-17OutNo010097.31,135,049*
243-6-18OutNo010098.4626,519*
232-8-17OutNo010099.1332,567*
222-7-18OutNo010099.5167,308*
212-6-19OutNo010099.780,341*
201-8-18OutNo010099.836,299*
191-7-19OutNo10099.915,687*
181-6-20OutNo010099.86,318*
9-17OutNo100Yes331,150*
Total:44.4%1.5%35781011121315164.4%2,635,690,560

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Earthquakes finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeWhitecapsSoundersFC DallasGalaxyDynamoReal Salt LakeTimbersSporting KCRapids
65-9012.5%Yes
6417-4-612.5100000
6316-6-512.51000000000
6216-5-612.5100000000000
6115-7-512.5100000000000
6015-6-612.5100000000000
5915-5-712.5100000000000
5814-7-612.5100000000000
5714-6-712.599000000000
13-9-512.599000000000
5614-5-812.498000000000
13-8-612.498000000000
5513-7-712.395011111000
14-4-912.395011111000
5413-6-812.090111111111
12-9-612.090111111111
5312-8-711.582222222211
13-5-911.581223222211
5212-7-810.869344444322
13-4-1010.767444444332
11-10-610.767344444332
5112-6-99.652566666443
11-9-79.551566666443
13-3-119.349566666544
5011-8-88.034678877655
12-5-107.933688877655
10-11-67.832688878655
4911-7-96.219788888665
10-10-76.018788888665
12-4-115.917789888665
4811-6-104.38678888655
10-9-84.38678877655
12-3-124.07678877655
4710-8-92.73566666544
11-5-112.63466666544
9-11-72.53456666444
4610-7-101.41344444333
9-10-81.41334444332
4510-6-110.70122222211
9-9-90.60122222111
449-8-100.20111111111
439-7-110.10000000000
428-9-100.00000000000
418-8-110.00000000000
408-7-120.0000000000
397-9-110.0000000000
387-8-120.0000000000
377-7-130.0000000000
367-6-14No00
9-35No
Total:3.0%15.81.82.22.32.32.22.21.71.61.4
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 4/17100.0*Lottery seed
Red Bulls 2 Earthquakes 0 +0.6
NYCFC 0 Timbers 1 +0.1
FC Dallas 3 Toronto FC 2 +0.1
Galaxy 2 Sporting KC 1 +0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 4/24100.0*Lottery seed
Red Bulls vs Galaxy-0.0-0.0+0.1
Red Bulls vs Rapids-0.0-0.0+0.1
Revolution vs Real Salt Lake-0.0-0.0+0.1
Whitecaps vs DC United+0.0-0.0-0.1
Dynamo vs Sporting KC+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920
77-90100
7621-4-21000
7521-3-31000
7420-5-21000
7320-4-310000
7220-3-49900
7119-5-39910
7019-4-49910
6918-6-39821
6818-5-4972100
6718-4-595310
6617-6-493520
6517-5-5907300
6417-4-68595000
6316-6-580128000
6216-5-6721611000
6115-7-56420160100
6015-6-653232101000
5915-5-742262713000
5814-7-63128332500000
5714-6-7202837410010000
5614-5-8122538815020000
5513-7-76203412231400000
5413-6-821426172929010000
5312-8-719161933516030000
5212-7-804717309241701000
5112-6-902312211430213020000
5011-8-80117111530622060100
4911-7-9000341222113021403000
4811-6-10000117111331523071000
4710-8-9000034112210312153000
4610-7-10000011611123152581000
4510-6-110000023102110321740000
449-8-100000011510123129112000
439-7-110000023922342261000
429-6-1200000115112932164100
418-8-11000002418322813300
408-7-1200001182332241020
397-9-110000021226322061
387-8-120000015173130142
377-7-1300000182435256
366-9-1200000315343513
356-8-13000018274222
346-7-1400004194433
335-9-1300001124146
325-8-1400173558
315-7-1500032868
304-9-140022177
294-8-150011584
284-7-160001089
274-6-1700793
263-8-1600496
253-7-1700397
243-6-180298
232-8-170199
222-7-18199
212-6-190100
201-8-180100
191-7-190100
181-6-200100
9-17100
Total:12324363738399876664