Houston Dynamo Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.4 to 25.3%
8 points   2-2-5

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 5/8100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Galaxy 4 Revolution 2 -0.2
-0.3
DC United 0 NYCFC 2 +0.2
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Earthquakes vs Dynamo-5.1+0.0+11.4
-0.3-0.0+0.8
-0.1-0.0+0.3
+2.3-0.3-4.8
-0.3+0.0+0.7
Dynamo vs Real Salt Lake+6.0-4.2-8.2
+0.4-0.3-0.6
+0.1-0.1-0.2
-3.3+1.9+4.9
+0.4-0.3-0.5
Toronto FC vs Whitecaps+0.5-0.0-1.4
+0.0+0.0-0.1
-0.1+0.0+0.2
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Whitecaps vs Fire-0.8+0.6+1.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
-0.1-0.0+0.3
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Rapids vs Sporting KC+0.4+0.0-1.2
-0.1+0.0+0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
FC Dallas vs Timbers-0.3+0.6-0.1
-0.1*+0.0+0.2
FC Dallas vs Sounders-0.2+0.6-0.2
-0.0-0.0+0.1
Crew vs Rapids+0.2+0.0-0.2
+0.4-0.1-0.4
Union vs Galaxy+0.1*-0.0-0.2
DC United vs Red Bulls+0.1-0.2+0.0
Revolution vs Fire+0.5-0.3-0.5
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/15100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Fire vs Dynamo-4.3-0.5+10.0
-0.3-0.1+0.7
-0.1-0.0+0.3
+2.7-0.6-5.1
-0.3-0.0+0.6
Sporting KC vs Orlando-0.9+0.6+1.2
-0.0+0.0+0.1
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Revolution vs FC Dallas+0.6+0.0-1.3
+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.7-0.4-0.9
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Timbers vs NYCFC-0.8+0.5+1.0
+0.1-0.1-0.1
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Sounders vs Rapids-0.8+0.4+0.8
+0.1-0.0-0.1
Sporting KC vs Real Salt Lake-0.5+0.6+0.5
+0.1-0.1-0.1
Toronto FC vs Crew-0.2+0.1+0.5
Toronto FC vs NYCFC-0.1+0.0+0.2
Union vs DC United-0.2+0.0+0.5
Orlando vs Impact+0.1-0.1-0.2
NYCFC vs Red Bulls-0.1-0.0+0.4
Red Bulls vs Fire+0.2-0.2-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well Dynamo finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910SpoonCount
74-83InYes100No709,960*
7321-2-2In99.5%1000No408*
7220-4-1In99.51000No1,058*
7120-3-2In99.2991No2,551*
7020-2-3In98.6991No5,684*
6919-4-2In98.09820No12,382*
6819-3-3In96.79730No26,636*
6718-5-2In94.89640No53,997*
6618-4-3In92.09460No108,074*
6518-3-4In87.991900No206,794*
6417-5-3In82.6871300No386,790*
6317-4-4In75.6821810No699,435*
6216-6-3In67.0752320No1,228,953*
6116-5-4In56.96730300No2,095,395*
6016-4-5In45.85836600No3,480,139*
5915-6-4In34.34842910No5,613,275*
5815-5-5In23.7384615100No8,821,931*
5715-4-6In14.6284821300No13,498,378*
5614-6-5100.0%7.81946296000No20,093,193*
5514-5-6100.03.512403711100No29,165,052*
5413-7-5100.01.363242182000No41,246,108*
5313-6-6100.00.332242276000No56,843,799*
5213-5-799.90.1113373512100No76,385,854*
5112-7-699.70.0072840204000No100,028,467*
5012-6-798.80.00318393091000No127,726,011*
4912-5-896.00.00193137184000No159,119,390*
4811-7-789.7No0042037289100No193,231,685*
4711-6-878.1No00111313518400No228,882,283*
4611-5-961.4No0005203628910No264,306,622*
4510-7-842.6No00021130351840No297,612,518*
4410-6-925.5No000520362891No326,702,665*
439-8-813.1No00021131361730.0%349,676,839*
429-7-95.7No000522392860.0364,699,341*
419-6-102.1No0002133537120.0370,680,541*
408-8-90.7No000172844210.1367,007,798*
398-7-100.2No00031945320.5353,954,250*
388-6-110.0No00011242451.9332,286,499*
377-8-100.0No000636575.2303,608,478*
367-7-110.0No0003296811.5269,872,606*
357-6-120.0No0001217821.0233,237,908*
346-8-110.0No001158532.8195,898,262*
336-7-120.0No000109045.7159,791,703*
326-6-13OutNo0069458.3126,476,499*
315-8-12OutNo0049669.497,115,293*
305-7-13OutNo0029878.572,242,318*
295-6-14OutNo019985.452,017,043*
284-8-13OutNo019990.536,220,406*
274-7-14OutNo0010094.024,354,920*
264-6-15OutNo010096.415,793,917*
253-8-14OutNo010097.99,851,350*
243-7-15OutNo010098.85,916,760*
233-6-16OutNo010099.33,402,143*
222-8-15OutNo010099.61,872,283*
212-7-16OutNo010099.8983,449*
202-6-17OutNo010099.9489,914*
192-5-18OutNo010099.9231,420*
181-7-17OutNo010099.9102,796*
8-17OutNo100100.0777,537*
Total:25.3%0.3%1135791114193010.1%5,706,857,760

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well Dynamo finishes out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeRapidsGalaxyReal Salt LakeFC DallasEarthquakesSoundersSporting KCWhitecapsTimbers
66-8312.5%Yes
6518-3-412.410000
6417-5-312.51000000
6317-4-412.510000000000
6216-6-312.5100000000000
6116-5-412.5100000000000
6016-4-512.5100000000000
5915-6-412.599000000000
5815-5-512.499000000000
5715-4-612.497000000000
5614-6-512.394001111110
5514-5-612.089112221111
13-8-412.088112221211
5413-7-511.680223332321
14-4-711.680223332221
5313-6-610.968335544432
14-3-810.967335544432
12-9-410.966335544432
5213-5-710.052447765543
12-8-59.951447766643
5112-7-68.635659987754
13-4-88.736659987754
11-10-48.534669987754
5012-6-77.12166101098865
11-9-56.92066111098865
13-3-97.12066111098865
4912-5-85.41166101098865
11-8-65.21066101098865
13-2-105.2966101098865
4811-7-73.74559887754
12-4-93.74559987754
10-10-53.54559877754
4711-6-82.31336665543
10-9-62.11336655543
12-3-102.21336665543
4611-5-91.30224443322
10-8-71.20224433322
4510-7-80.60112222111
11-4-100.50112221111
4410-6-90.20001111100
4310-5-100.10000000000
429-7-90.00000000000
419-6-100.00000000000
408-8-90.00000000000
398-7-100.0000000000
388-6-110.0000000000
378-5-120.0000000000
367-7-11No00000
358-3-14No0
8-34No
Total:1.3%4.91.00.91.81.71.51.41.41.00.9
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/8100.0*Lottery seed
Earthquakes vs Dynamo+0.6-0.0-1.4
Dynamo vs Real Salt Lake-0.8+0.5+1.1
Toronto FC vs Whitecaps-0.0-0.0+0.1
Rapids vs Sporting KC-0.0-0.0+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/15100.0*Lottery seed
Fire vs Dynamo+0.6+0.0-1.3
Sporting KC vs Orlando+0.1-0.0-0.1
Timbers vs NYCFC+0.1-0.0-0.1
Sounders vs Rapids+0.1-0.0-0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920
74-83100
7321-2-210000
7220-4-110000
7120-3-29901
7020-2-39901
6919-4-298020
6819-3-397130
6718-5-295140
6618-4-3922600
6518-3-48839000
6417-5-383413000
6317-4-476618010
6216-6-367823020
6116-5-45710300300
6016-4-546123605000
5915-6-434144119010
5815-5-52414452150100
5715-4-615134532103000
5614-6-581140529060000
5514-5-648328361110100
5413-7-515221040218020000
5313-6-603121039427060000
5213-5-70158316351120100
5112-7-6002520938220040000
5012-6-7000299344300901000
4912-5-80001362473611804000
4811-7-7000131293432809100
4711-6-80000147247351184000
4611-5-900000141283332891000
4510-7-80000014723734194000
4410-6-900000141293329111000
439-8-80000024724362251000
429-7-90000014133132143000
419-6-10000002520342611200
408-8-900000119253222810
398-7-1000000031429311850
388-6-110000015193229122
377-8-1000000292535235
367-7-1100000416353412
357-6-120000018284221
346-8-11000004194433
336-7-1200001124146
326-6-13000063558
315-8-1200032769
305-7-130012078
295-6-140011485
284-8-13000991
274-7-1400694
264-6-1500496
253-8-1400298
243-7-150199
233-6-160199
222-8-1500100
212-7-160100
202-6-170100
192-5-180100
181-7-170100
171-6-180100
161-5-190100
151-4-200100
8-14100
Total:00112141527291099991010