Houston Dynamo Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.1 to 48.2%
6 points   2-0-3

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 4/12100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
New England 2 Dynamo 0 -6.6
-0.8
-1.2
+0.8
-0.4
Toronto FC 0 Rapids 1 +0.8
+0.1
+0.1
Union 2 Real Salt Lake 2 +0.6
+0.1
+0.0
Impact 1 Fire 1 +0.5
+0.1
-0.1
DC United 1 Red Bulls 0 -0.2
Earthquakes 1 Crew 1 *+0.1
-0.1
+0.0
FC Dallas 2 Sounders 3 +0.3
Timbers 1 Chivas USA 1 -0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Red Bulls vs Union*+0.0+0.5-0.6
*+0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.1-0.1-0.2
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 4/19100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Union vs Dynamo-5.6+0.8+12.7
-0.6+0.1+1.5
-0.6-0.1+1.5
+1.0-0.3-2.0
-0.3+0.0+0.8
FC Dallas vs Toronto FC+0.4-0.1-1.1
+0.1*-0.0-0.2
-0.1+0.1+0.1
+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Crew vs DC United+0.2+0.2-0.9
*-0.0+0.0-0.1
-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Fire vs New England-0.2+0.6-0.3
-0.0+0.1-0.0
Sporting KC vs Impact-0.3+0.5+0.1
-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
-0.1*+0.0+0.3
Real Salt Lake vs Timbers-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.1+0.0+0.3
Rapids vs Earthquakes-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.1+0.0+0.3
Chivas USA vs Sounders+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.2-0.1-0.2
Whitecaps vs Galaxy+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.0*-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well Dynamo finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910SpoonCount
73-93InYes100No3,526*
7220-6-3In99.7%1000No287*
7120-5-4In99.4100No520*
7020-4-5In99.01000No999*
6919-6-4In97.91000No1,844*
6819-5-5In96.8991No3,114*
6718-7-4In95.6991No5,246*
6618-6-5In93.4982No8,484*
6518-5-6In90.49820No13,361*
6417-7-5In85.39640No21,130*
6317-6-6In79.59460No32,176*
6217-5-7In71.79280No47,876*
6116-7-6In62.1881200No70,059*
6016-6-7In51.9831610No99,539*
5915-8-6In40.2772210No139,822*
5815-7-7In29.06928300No190,968*
5715-6-8In18.96035500No254,877*
5614-8-7100.0%10.950419100No333,280*
5514-7-8100.05.4404514100No424,968*
5414-6-9100.02.2294721300No531,072*
5313-8-8100.00.7204529600No650,827*
5213-7-999.90.212393611100No778,703*
5113-6-1099.80.07314019300No911,877*
5012-8-999.20.032140288100No1,042,348*
4912-7-1097.40.0112343615200No1,171,087*
4811-9-993.3No062538246100No1,283,815*
4711-8-1084.9No0215353313200No1,377,355*
4611-7-1171.2No017263723610No1,442,424*
4510-9-1053.3No00316353213200No1,481,091*
4410-8-1134.7No0018263722600No1,482,367*
4310-7-1219.3No0031635321220No1,455,624*
429-9-119.1No0018273722500.0%1,394,204*
419-8-123.6No00031736311110.01,304,085*
409-7-131.2No001929381930.11,193,266*
398-9-120.3No00420402960.41,063,341*
388-8-130.1No002123538121.4928,248*
378-7-140.0No0172844213.9789,256*
367-9-130.0No0032046318.6655,756*
357-8-140.0No00113444216.1530,249*
347-7-15OutNo008395326.0416,745*
336-9-14OutNo004326437.8319,992*
326-8-15OutNo002257349.4239,241*
316-7-16OutNo01198061.2173,566*
305-9-15OutNo00138671.2122,568*
295-8-16OutNo099179.483,561*
285-7-17OutNo069485.855,781*
274-9-16OutNo049690.936,010*
264-8-17OutNo029894.022,422*
254-7-18OutNo019996.313,384*
243-9-17OutNo19997.87,865*
233-8-18OutNo010098.74,395*
223-7-19OutNo010099.32,343*
213-6-20OutNo10099.41,245*
202-8-19OutNo010099.3587*
6-19OutNo100Yes3,698*
Total:48.2%1.8%691011121212111083.8%24,622,474

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well Dynamo finishes out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeCrewToronto FCSporting KCUnionDC UnitedFireNew EnglandRed BullsImpact
62-9312.5%Yes
6116-7-612.51000000
6016-6-712.61000000
5915-8-612.510000000000
5815-7-712.5100000000000
5715-6-812.5100000000000
5614-8-712.799000000000
15-5-912.599000000000
5514-7-812.499000000000
13-10-612.499000000000
5414-6-912.497000100000
13-9-712.397000100000
5313-8-812.293111111100
14-5-1012.293111111100
5213-7-911.988122222111
12-10-711.987122222211
14-4-1111.887122222111
5113-6-1011.478233333211
12-9-811.477233333311
11-12-611.476233333311
5012-8-910.864455554422
13-5-1110.663455554422
11-11-710.663455554422
4912-7-109.748577776543
11-10-89.547577776633
13-4-129.546577776643
4811-9-98.231688987754
12-6-118.231688987754
10-12-78.029699987754
4711-8-106.5187991098754
12-5-126.3177991098754
10-11-86.316699998854
4611-7-114.78688988754
10-10-94.68688987754
12-4-134.57688987754
4510-9-103.13577776643
11-6-123.03567776643
9-12-82.83466766643
4410-8-111.81345554432
11-5-131.71344544432
4310-7-120.90222332221
429-9-110.40111111111
419-8-120.10000100000
409-7-130.00000000000
398-9-120.0000000000
388-8-130.0000000000
378-7-140.0000000000
367-9-13No00000000
357-8-14No00
6-34No
Total:4.6%25.12.23.13.13.33.12.72.61.81.4
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 4/12100.0*Lottery seed
New England 2 Dynamo 0 +0.8
Toronto FC 0 Rapids 1 -0.1
Union 2 Real Salt Lake 2 -0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 4/19100.0*Lottery seed
Union vs Dynamo+0.7-0.1-1.5
FC Dallas vs Toronto FC-0.0-0.0+0.1
Sporting KC vs Impact+0.0-0.1-0.0
Fire vs New England+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L12345678910111213141516171819
73-93100
7220-6-31000
7120-5-4991
7020-4-59910
6919-6-49820
6819-5-59731
6718-7-49631
6618-6-593520
6518-5-690720
6417-7-58511400
6317-6-68015600
6217-5-77220800
6116-7-6622612000
6016-6-75231161100
5915-8-64036202100
5815-7-729402533000
5715-6-8194128750000
5614-8-711392812801000
5514-7-853426191211000
5414-6-9227202717330000
5313-8-8119133221860000
5213-7-901263320151011000
5113-6-100722816241643000
5012-8-90312093019970100
4912-7-100101243017181322000
4811-9-900612411271866100
4711-8-100020155301815123000
4611-7-110107125132418920000
4510-9-100003016628201871000
4410-8-11001082241625176100
4310-7-12000301682427155100
429-9-110001083152927133000
419-8-12000031721312410200
409-7-1300010211253121710
398-9-12000141529301640
388-8-13000017213326101
378-7-1400003122834194
367-9-130000162036299
357-8-140000212323816
347-7-150016244326
336-9-14003174338
326-8-15001103949
316-7-160063361
305-9-150032671
295-8-160011979
285-7-17011486
274-9-1600991
264-8-170694
254-7-180496
243-9-170298
233-8-18199
223-7-19199
213-6-20199
202-8-19199
6-19100
Total:2436374848567776654