Houston Dynamo Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.03 to 1.1%
29 points   6-11-11

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/18100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Dynamo vs Timbers+1.0-0.8-1.0
+0.0-0.0No
-8.3+4.1+11.8
+0.2-0.2-0.3
Earthquakes vs Sporting KC+0.1+0.1-0.2
+0.1-0.0-0.1
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Whitecaps vs Rapids-0.1+0.1+0.1
+0.1+0.0-0.2
-0.1+0.0+0.1
NYCFC vs Fire-3.0+0.1+7.9
DC United vs Orlando-0.0+0.1-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/25100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Dynamo vs NYCFC+0.9-0.7-1.0
-8.2+4.2+12.0
+0.2-0.2-0.3
Rapids vs Timbers+0.2-0.1-0.4
Revolution vs Sporting KC+0.3-0.0-0.3
Galaxy vs Sounders+0.1-0.0-0.3
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Impact vs Earthquakes+0.1*+0.0-0.3
-0.0+0.0+0.1
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Sounders vs Fire-0.1+0.1+0.2
-2.9+0.2+8.0
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake-0.1+0.1+0.2
+0.1-0.0-0.1
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Crew vs Revolution+2.6-2.2-4.3
DC United vs Crew-1.6+0.3+3.9
Crew vs Fire-0.1-1.1+1.8
Toronto FC vs Orlando-0.1+0.1+0.3
Toronto FC vs DC United-0.1+0.1+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well Dynamo finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910SpoonCount
476-0-094.0%No65434600No63,925,039
455-1-058.8No0154435600No315,941,390
445-0-126.7No323472330No479,938,057
434-2-09.4No194239100No685,317,166
424-1-11.2No012149272No2,025,381,128
414-0-20.0No053548120.0%1,463,672,279
3-3-00.0No073845100.0765,753,316
403-2-1OutNo21953260.03,300,917,607
393-1-2OutNo0848440.04,631,113,587
2-4-0OutNo0948420.0466,636,609
382-3-1OutNo0232660.32,611,637,280
3-0-3OutNo0231660.22,108,785,445
372-2-2OutNo0017822.15,351,703,233
1-5-0OutNo0016832.9147,610,063
362-1-3OutNo09916.74,752,811,454
1-4-1OutNo08929.01,007,547,457
351-3-2OutNo29819.62,687,872,322
2-0-4OutNo29814.81,543,609,370
0-6-0OutNo19922.318,995,717
341-2-3OutNo010035.43,501,234,584
0-5-1OutNo10040.3152,144,223
29-33OutNo10065.05,387,348,514*
Total:1.1%No00138206814.0%43,469,895,840

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well Dynamo finishes out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupFC DallasGalaxyRapidsReal Salt LakeTimbersSporting KCSoundersEarthquakesWhitecaps
476-0-02.2%0963526010
455-1-00.50311100000
445-0-10.10102
434-2-00.00000
424-1-10.00000
29-41No
Total:0.0%0.00.00.00.20.00.00.00.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/18100.0*Lottery seed
Dynamo vs Timbers-0.7+0.5+0.9
NYCFC vs Fire-0.1-0.0+0.2
Whitecaps vs Rapids+0.1-0.0-0.1
Earthquakes vs Sporting KC+0.1-0.0-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/25100.0*Lottery seed
Dynamo vs NYCFC-0.7+0.5+0.9
Toronto FC vs Orlando-0.1+0.0+0.1
Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake+0.1-0.0-0.1
Crew vs Revolution+0.1-0.1-0.1
Sounders vs Fire-0.0-0.0+0.1
Crew vs Fire+0.0-0.1+0.0
DC United vs Crew-0.0-0.0+0.1
Toronto FC vs DC United-0.0+0.0+0.1
Revolution vs Sporting KC+0.1-0.0-0.1
Impact vs Earthquakes-0.0+0.0+0.1
Galaxy vs Sounders-0.0+0.0+0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920
476-0-043512340600
455-1-00010642235600
445-0-1122124723300
434-2-000634039111000
424-1-100011845305000
414-0-20042645224000
3-3-00042541235100
403-2-107283822500
393-1-2011132371720
2-4-001929382030
382-3-1001123539120
3-0-300215383680
372-2-200021848302
1-5-00011446363
362-1-3000739487
1-4-1000533529
351-3-201196120
2-0-401245915
0-6-000146322
341-2-30085735
0-5-155540
331-1-434651
0-4-214158
320-3-302772
1-0-513465
310-2-401585
300-1-5892
290-0-6496
Total:0000102571013202614