Columbus Crew Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 1.3 to 82.4%
8 points   2-2-2

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 4/17100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Crew 3 Orlando 0 +7.2
+0.9
+0.9
-1.8
+0.5
NYCFC 0 Timbers 1 +0.9
+0.1
+0.1
FC Dallas 3 Toronto FC 2 +0.6
+0.1
+0.0
Red Bulls 2 Earthquakes 0 -0.4
-0.1
-0.1
-0.0
DC United 1 Dynamo 1 +0.3
+0.1
+0.1
+0.0
Union 1 Revolution 2 -0.2
-0.1
-0.1
Real Salt Lake 0 Whitecaps 1 -0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 4/24100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Crew vs Union+4.4-3.2-8.1
+0.7-0.6-1.3
+1.8-1.7-2.8
-0.6+0.3+1.1
+0.4-0.3-0.6
Revolution vs Real Salt Lake-0.5+0.3+0.7
-0.1+0.1+0.2
-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Whitecaps vs DC United+0.2-0.0-0.5
+0.1-0.0-0.2
-0.3+0.4+0.2
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Fire vs NYCFC-0.1+0.4-0.2
-0.0+0.1-0.0
Orlando vs Toronto FC-0.2+0.4-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
Red Bulls vs Rapids-0.1+0.1+0.2
-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.4+0.3+0.5
-0.0*+0.0+0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Red Bulls vs Galaxy-0.1+0.1+0.2
-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.3+0.3+0.3
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Sounders vs Timbers-0.2+0.2+0.2
Rapids vs FC Dallas+0.1+0.0-0.2
Dynamo vs Sporting KC-0.1+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Crew finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910SpoonCount
78-92InYes100No46,216*
7722-3-3In99.9%1000No2,362*
7621-5-2In99.91000No4,577*
7521-4-3In99.91000No9,069*
7421-3-4In99.81000No16,548*
7320-5-3In99.71000No30,028*
7220-4-4In99.51000No51,972*
7119-6-3In99.11000No88,452*
7019-5-4In98.69910No147,054*
6919-4-5In97.7991No235,709*
6818-6-4In96.69820No369,676*
6718-5-5In94.79820No566,561*
6617-7-4In92.19730No841,692*
6517-6-5In88.69550No1,225,327*
6417-5-6In83.893700No1,740,381*
6316-7-5In77.5901000No2,410,585*
6216-6-6In69.6861300No3,269,379*
6116-5-7In60.2821810No4,321,880*
6015-7-6In49.5762310No5,589,630*
5915-6-7In38.36929200No7,068,142*
5814-8-6In27.26135400No8,725,060*
5714-7-7In17.55241700No10,541,165*
5614-6-8In9.8424611100No12,451,988*
5513-8-7In4.6334917200No14,383,817*
5413-7-8100.0%1.82348244000No16,245,939*
5313-6-9100.00.51645327100No17,946,359*
5212-8-8100.00.193838132000No19,395,972*
5112-7-9100.00.052942214000No20,477,608*
5011-9-8100.00.021940298100No21,153,610*
4911-8-999.80.01113436153000No21,373,983*
4811-7-1099.3No052439246100No21,105,949*
4710-9-997.8No0215353313200No20,383,332*
4610-8-1093.8No0172637226100No19,238,742*
4510-7-1185.7No00316353112200No17,743,790*
449-9-1072.6No0018273622500No15,990,967*
439-8-1155.4No000317353112200.0%14,082,896*
429-7-1237.4No0019273721500.012,108,386*
418-9-1122.1No00041836311010.010,162,288*
408-8-1211.3No0011030371930.38,325,491*
398-7-135.0No000521392961.26,656,071*
387-9-121.9No002133538123.75,186,002*
377-8-130.6No00172844218.93,942,606*
367-7-140.2No00320463117.42,916,278*
356-9-130.0No00113434228.62,102,987*
346-8-140.0No0007385441.61,473,109*
336-7-150.0No004316554.51,005,252*
325-9-140.0No002247466.1665,240*
315-8-15OutNo01188176.0426,954*
305-7-16OutNo00128783.7267,498*
294-9-15OutNo0089289.3160,992*
284-8-16OutNo059593.494,510*
274-7-17OutNo039796.052,941*
263-9-16OutNo029897.628,937*
253-8-17OutNo019998.715,035*
243-7-18OutNo19999.17,694*
232-9-17OutNo010099.63,619*
222-8-18OutNo010099.81,726*
212-7-19OutNo10099.9716*
202-6-20OutNo010099.7349*
8-19OutNo100100.044,342*
Total:82.4%6.6%1518161411975421.2%354,925,440

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Crew finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeRed BullsDC UnitedRevolutionOrlandoToronto FCFireNYCFCImpactUnion
65-9212.5%Yes
6417-5-612.510000
6316-7-512.51000000
6216-6-612.510000000000
6116-5-712.5100000000000
6015-7-612.5100000000000
5915-6-712.5100000000000
5814-8-612.5100000000000
15-5-812.5100000000000
5714-7-712.5100000000000
15-4-912.5100000000000
5614-6-812.599000000000
13-9-612.599000000000
5513-8-712.498000000000
14-5-912.498000000000
5413-7-812.396001111000
12-10-612.496001111000
5313-6-912.292111111110
12-9-712.292111111110
5212-8-811.985122222111
13-5-1011.986122222111
11-11-611.985122222111
5112-7-911.575234333221
11-10-711.475234433221
13-4-1111.576234333221
5011-9-810.761356555432
12-6-1010.862356555432
4911-8-99.746478777543
12-5-119.847478777543
10-11-79.745478777543
4811-7-108.4305810988654
10-10-88.4305810988654
4710-9-96.8165910999755
11-6-116.9175910999755
4610-8-105.284810988755
11-5-125.284810988755
4510-7-113.63368777544
9-10-93.53368777544
449-9-102.21245555433
439-8-111.20123333222
429-7-120.50012111111
418-9-110.20001111000
408-8-120.10000000000
398-7-130.00000000000
387-9-120.0000000000
377-8-130.0000000000
367-7-140.0000000000
356-9-13No0000000
346-8-14No0
8-33No
Total:7.8%48.71.73.23.83.53.33.22.51.91.7
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 4/17100.0*Lottery seed
Crew 3 Orlando 0 -1.0
NYCFC 0 Timbers 1 -0.1
Red Bulls 2 Earthquakes 0 +0.1
Union 1 Revolution 2 +0.1
DC United 1 Dynamo 1 -0.0
FC Dallas 3 Toronto FC 2 -0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 4/24100.0*Lottery seed
Crew vs Union-0.8+0.6+1.4
Revolution vs Real Salt Lake+0.1-0.1-0.1
Whitecaps vs DC United-0.0-0.0+0.1
Red Bulls vs Galaxy+0.1-0.1-0.1
Red Bulls vs Rapids+0.1-0.1-0.1
Orlando vs Toronto FC+0.0-0.1+0.0
Fire vs NYCFC+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920
78-92100
7722-3-310000
7621-5-210000
7521-4-310000
7421-3-410000
7320-5-310000
7220-4-49900
7119-6-39910
7019-5-499110
6919-4-59811
6818-6-497220
6718-5-595320
6617-7-4924300
6517-6-5896500
6417-5-68497000
6316-7-5771310000
6216-6-67017130000
6116-5-76021180100
6015-7-65026221100
5915-6-738302722000
5814-8-6273332440000
5714-7-7173434770000
5614-6-8103233131101000
5513-8-752828201612000
5413-7-82222128204400000
5313-6-91151232239701000
5212-8-8096322118121200000
5112-7-9052271427165400000
5011-9-8020197331713711000
4911-8-901011232132312420000
4811-7-100050247321411611000
4710-9-9002015233112210320000
4610-8-10001070265321211510000
4510-7-110003016233923941000
449-9-1000108027432101051000
439-8-11000030171348151461000
429-7-120010902741421166100
418-9-110000401818212616510
408-8-120001010031428271330
398-7-130000501721322491
387-9-12002002122833184
377-8-1300100152035299
367-7-1400000211303917
356-9-130000015224329
346-8-1400002144242
336-7-15000183755
325-9-14000042966
315-8-150022276
305-7-16011584
294-9-15001089
284-8-160693
274-7-170496
263-9-160298
253-8-170199
243-7-18199
232-9-170100
222-8-180100
212-7-190100
202-6-200100
191-8-19100
181-7-20398
8-17100
Total:7871061049382722333221