Columbus Crew Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.008 to 50.6%
37 points   9-10-9

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 9/13100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Dynamo 2 Crew 2 -3.8
-0.5
No
-0.1
Union 2 Red Bulls 2 +1.9
+0.3
+0.1
New England 2 Impact 1 -1.3
-0.2
-0.1
Fire 1 Toronto FC 1 +0.7
+0.1
+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/20100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Crew vs New England+13.3-9.2-18.9
+1.4-1.0-1.9
No-0.0+0.0
+0.5-0.3-0.7
Red Bulls vs Sounders-4.2+1.6+4.3
-0.4+0.2+0.4
-0.1+0.1+0.1
Union vs Dynamo-3.1+3.6+4.4
-0.3+0.3+0.4
-0.1+0.1+0.0
Toronto FC vs Chivas USA-2.4+2.8+4.4
-0.2+0.2+0.3
-0.1+0.1+0.2
Sporting KC vs New England+0.5-0.3-0.8
+0.1-0.0-0.2
Fire vs DC United-0.4+0.2+0.3
Impact vs Earthquakes+0.0*-0.0No

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Crew finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910SpoonCount
556-0-0InNo1467190No85,791,335
535-1-0InNo3494810No401,593,833
525-0-1100.0%No128621000No571,420,305
514-2-0100.0No017691400No809,470,147
504-1-1100.0No055339300No2,248,503,587
494-0-299.0No01255617100No1,527,319,656
3-3-099.8No014249700No844,222,657
483-2-196.8No0155527300No3,420,549,097
473-1-282.5No0333461610No4,496,333,355
2-4-089.6No0744391010No479,912,515
462-3-168.1No01214728400No2,513,372,364
3-0-356.8No00134436700No1,904,664,270
452-2-236.8No0531461710No4,781,100,918
1-5-042.5No0835431410No141,076,502
442-1-313.8No0113473630No3,883,979,272
1-4-118.9No0217473230No894,513,652
431-3-25.3No05355090No2,189,624,902
2-0-43.7No043551100No1,124,629,830
0-6-05.0No053451100No16,794,153
421-2-30.8No011857231No2,569,140,198
0-5-11.0No011857231No123,759,452
411-1-40.1No00851383No1,435,435,241
0-4-20.1No00851383No366,115,978
400-3-30.0No0237529No553,462,611
1-0-50.0No0338518No305,031,721
390-2-40.0No012159190No449,117,768
380-1-5OutNo011573200.0%185,235,380
370-0-6OutNo04474900.035,358,119
Total:50.6%No0210182122197100.0%38,357,528,818

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Crew finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeDC UnitedSporting KCNew EnglandRed BullsUnionToronto FCDynamoFireImpact
556-0-012.5%10000000
535-1-012.59900000000
525-0-112.19000142300
514-2-012.08600263300
504-1-110.858027159810
494-0-28.926041225181121
3-3-010.14402820121121
483-2-17.915041427191421
473-1-25.330413272112210
2-4-06.57031428191631
462-3-14.01031123161121
3-0-33.000492016710
452-2-21.8002514105100
1-5-02.200161610721
442-1-30.6001264100
1-4-10.9001375310
431-3-20.200121100
2-0-40.200021000
0-6-00.200121100
421-2-30.000000000
0-5-10.000000000
411-1-40.000000000
0-4-20.000000000
400-3-30.000000000
1-0-50.000000
390-2-40.00000
37-38No
Total:4.0%11.60.11.96.213.69.66.11.10.30.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/13100.0*Lottery seed
Dynamo 2 Crew 2 +0.3
New England 2 Impact 1 +0.1
Union 2 Red Bulls 2 -0.1
Fire 1 Toronto FC 1 -0.0
FC Dallas 2 Whitecaps 1 -0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Real Salt Lake vs Rapids-0.0-0.0+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/20100.0*Lottery seed
Crew vs New England-0.9+0.6+1.3
Red Bulls vs Sounders+0.2-0.1-0.2
Toronto FC vs Chivas USA+0.1-0.1-0.2
Union vs Dynamo+0.1-0.1-0.1
Sporting KC vs New England-0.0+0.0+0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L12345678910111213141516171819
556-0-01406651400
535-1-030494440000
525-0-1102826046000
514-2-0017168311000
504-1-1050535343000
494-0-201025353152100
3-3-00104224661000
483-2-100151542153000
473-1-20030333215162000
2-4-000704425149100
462-3-1010212225266000
3-0-3000132222349000
452-2-205102139213000
1-5-00810253619300
442-1-3012113440111000
1-4-1023153237111000
431-3-20051743286000
2-0-40031945275000
0-6-00051541317100
421-2-30016314218300
0-5-10015294220300
411-1-4000114393410100
0-4-2000113383511100
400-3-30003234226500
1-0-50005264223400
390-2-40011034391520
380-1-5003204229600
370-0-601935411400
Total:0020101171110171510521000