Columbus Crew Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 2.3 to 63%
26 points   6-8-7

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 7/26100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
New England 1 Crew 2 +16.9
+1.6
-0.8
+0.7
New England 3 Rapids 0 -2.6
-0.2
-0.1
Fire 0 Whitecaps 0 +0.7
+0.1
+0.0
Toronto FC 1 Sporting KC 2 +0.7
+0.1
DC United 3 Toronto FC 0 +0.5
+0.1
+0.0
Impact 2 Timbers 3 +0.1
-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Sporting KC vs Union+1.2-0.1-3.6
+0.1*-0.0-0.3
+0.0+0.0-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 8/2100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Fire vs Crew-8.4+0.3+14.3
-0.9-0.1+1.7
-0.0-0.0+0.1
+0.1-0.1-0.2
-0.4+0.0+0.6
Impact vs Toronto FC+1.3+0.4-1.6
+0.3+0.1-0.3
+0.1-0.0-0.1
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Red Bulls vs New England-0.7+1.2-0.2
-0.0+0.2-0.1
Dynamo vs DC United-0.5+0.1+0.2
+0.1-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Crew finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910SpoonCount
6513-0-0In70.6%84160No1,690,184
6312-1-0In43.964333No297,321
6212-0-1In34.056405No367,279
6111-2-0In19.94149100No1,483,767
6011-1-1In12.93352150No3,635,939
5910-3-0In6.22254240No6,692,851*
5810-2-1In2.815523300No16,323,452
5710-1-2In1.19474300No28,808,440*
569-3-1In0.35395510No51,864,314*
559-2-2In0.13326320No92,113,322*
548-4-1100.0%0.012371500No141,545,611*
538-3-2100.00.001576800No220,226,645*
528-2-3100.00.00107614000No320,764,441*
517-4-2100.00.0057222100No434,196,288*
507-3-3100.0No036331300No578,711,181*
497-2-499.7No0151417000No392,263,883
6-5-299.8No0152416000No330,001,868*
486-4-399.1No00384813100No617,759,685
7-1-599.0No00384813100No239,998,933*
476-3-496.9No00245023300No700,657,463
5-6-297.4No00265021300No286,283,458*
465-5-392.6No00144632700No598,437,939*
6-2-591.3No001344348100No471,452,481
455-4-482.3No06344216200No797,841,636
6-1-682.3No07344116200No312,281,243*
445-3-566.2No02214328600No708,678,717
4-6-368.6No03234326500No397,561,065*
434-5-448.6No011137381310No600,712,161
5-2-646.7No011036391410No441,283,428*
424-4-528.4No0042443253000.0%781,015,153*
3-7-331.4No00526432330No157,540,382*
414-3-613.6No011239389000.0478,544,303
3-6-415.0No011440378000.0328,476,021*
403-5-55.7No005294619100.0391,049,882
4-2-75.2No005274620100.0264,064,007*
393-4-61.6No002164633300.0506,190,374*
383-3-70.3No00073746900.0213,113,036
2-6-50.4No0083945800.0157,625,812*
372-5-60.0No00225531810.2254,702,390*
362-4-70.0No00114533121.1165,046,101*
352-3-80.0No006444453.6100,241,925*
341-5-70.0No0023254118.856,259,199*
331-4-8OutNo0120592117.629,236,527*
321-3-9OutNo0010573329.913,929,979*
310-5-8OutNo05494744.35,913,937*
300-4-9OutNo02386058.92,211,222*
290-3-10OutNo00277372.2715,453*
280-2-11OutNo0178383.0180,998
270-1-12OutNo099190.829,535
260-0-13OutNo49696.21,664,903
Total:63.0%0.0%0220221916127200.2%12,701,686,134

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Crew finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeSporting KCDC UnitedToronto FCNew EnglandRed BullsUnionFireDynamoImpact
62-6512.5%Yes
6111-2-012.510000000
6011-1-112.5100000000
5910-3-012.510000000000
5810-2-112.5100000000000
5710-1-212.5100000000000
569-3-112.599000000000
559-2-212.498000110000
548-4-112.395000221000
9-1-312.396000111000
538-3-212.191001331100
9-0-412.292001331100
528-2-311.986002442100
7-5-111.986002542100
517-4-211.577004774200
8-1-411.577004664200
507-3-310.9660061096300
6-6-111.1680051095200
8-0-510.965007996300
497-2-410.252001013128400
6-5-210.35300913127400
486-4-39.3380013171510510
7-1-59.2370114161510510
5-7-19.641001217159410
476-3-48.1240116191812610
5-6-28.3260015201812610
7-0-68.0240116191712610
465-5-36.9140018211913610
6-2-56.7130118201813610
4-8-17.3160017221913610
455-4-45.460017201813610
6-1-65.260017191713610
4-7-25.770017211913610
445-3-53.820015171511510
4-6-34.030015171611510
434-5-42.61001113118410
5-2-62.41001012108410
424-4-51.40006865210
3-7-31.50007875310
5-1-71.30006764210
414-3-60.60003432100
3-6-40.70003432100
403-5-50.20001211000
393-4-60.10000100000
383-3-70.00000000000
372-5-60.0000000000
362-4-70.0000000000
352-3-80.00000000
341-5-7No00
26-33No
Total:5.3%21.60.20.29.011.110.06.93.30.60.1
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 7/26100.0*Lottery seed
New England 1 Crew 2 -1.5
New England 3 Rapids 0 +0.1
Toronto FC 1 Sporting KC 2 -0.1
DC United 3 Toronto FC 0 -0.0
Fire 0 Whitecaps 0 -0.0
Real Salt Lake 1 Red Bulls 1 -0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Sporting KC vs Union-0.1-0.0+0.2
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 8/2100.0*Lottery seed
Fire vs Crew+0.8+0.0-1.4
Impact vs Toronto FC-0.1-0.0+0.2
Red Bulls vs New England+0.0-0.1+0.0
Galaxy vs Earthquakes-0.0-0.0+0.1
Galaxy vs Timbers-0.0-0.0+0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L12345678910111213141516171819
6513-0-071131600
6312-1-044203303
6212-0-134223915
6111-2-020214621000
6011-1-113204841500
5910-3-06164682400
5810-2-13124012330000
5710-1-2183117421000
569-3-1052019513100
559-2-2021220567200
548-4-101518561550000
538-3-200213492780000
528-2-3001936391310000
517-4-2000522501751000
507-3-30031153201220000
497-2-40014471922610000
6-5-20013491625510000
486-4-300013711379410000
7-1-500013713359410000
476-3-40000246441111300000
5-6-2000026546101120000
465-5-300014244824520000
6-2-5000142421123620000
455-4-40060345368720000
6-1-60070346368720000
445-3-500202124191482000
4-6-300302324271392000
434-5-40010110365171982000
5-2-60010101357181981000
424-4-50004024214272061000
3-7-3000402531427206100
414-3-6001012182531174000
3-6-4001014172431174000
403-5-500050214323013200
4-2-700050315323013200
393-4-60002016223626810
383-3-70000021130371830
2-6-5000011130371820
372-5-600000418383280
362-4-70000183042181
352-3-8000031844324
341-5-70001937459
331-4-8003255418
321-3-9001145530
310-5-80074944
300-4-90023959
290-3-10012772
280-2-1101783
270-1-120991
260-0-130496
Total:0001515418316357764310