Columbus Crew Playoff Chances

Tied DC United 1-1, playoff odds down 4 to 12.9%
18 points   3-9-7

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 7/10100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Crew 1 Toronto FC 1 -4.4
-0.3
+2.7
-0.3
Crew 1 DC United 1 -4.2
-0.2
+4.3
-0.3
Fire 1 Sporting KC 0 -0.5
+1.7
-0.1
Red Bulls 0 Timbers 0 +0.4
Sporting KC 3 NYCFC 1 +0.3
+0.1
Timbers 1 Impact 1 -0.1
Red Bulls 2 Orlando 0 -0.1
Sounders 5 FC Dallas 0 +2.0
Galaxy 1 Dynamo 0 -0.6
Whitecaps 2 Real Salt Lake 0 +0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Whitecaps vs Orlando+0.6*-0.0-1.4
-0.3+0.1+0.7
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Real Salt Lake vs Revolution+0.5*+0.0-1.3
-0.5+0.1+1.2
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Earthquakes vs Toronto FC+0.4*-0.0-0.9
+0.2-0.2-0.3
FC Dallas vs Fire+0.3*-0.0-0.9
-1.1+0.4+2.9
+0.0-0.0-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 7/17100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Crew vs Orlando+5.4-3.5-6.9
+0.2-0.2-0.3
+0.0-0.0No
-8.4+4.6+11.8
+0.4-0.2-0.5
Revolution vs Fire-0.3+0.6*+0.0
-0.4-0.2+1.3
Toronto FC vs DC United-0.1+0.4-0.5
-0.2*+0.0+0.4
Union vs Red Bulls+0.1*+0.0-0.3
Impact vs NYCFC+0.0+0.1-0.2
Impact vs Union-0.1+0.1+0.2
Dynamo vs Whitecaps+1.6-0.9-2.3
Timbers vs Sounders-0.5+0.1+1.0
Real Salt Lake vs Earthquakes-0.2*+0.0+0.4
Timbers vs Galaxy+0.2*+0.0-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Crew finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910SpoonCount
6315-0-0In65.7%991No2,035
6114-1-0InNo100No1
6014-0-1In20.08020No5
5913-2-0In36.48614No22
5813-1-1In19.68020No46
5712-3-0In6.98119No131*
5612-2-1In4.578212No399
5512-1-2In1.365332No789*
5411-3-1In0.2544060No1,771*
5311-2-2InNo4047111No3,999*
5210-4-1In0.027492230No7,987*
5110-3-2InNo16463170No15,184*
5010-2-3InNo835411420No28,502*
499-4-2100.0%No3234225600No48,831*
489-3-3100.0No11236361320No82,504*
479-2-499.7No05244025600No131,561*
468-4-398.2No011234361420No201,380*
458-3-493.5No004224027600No296,629*
447-5-382.1No0110333916200No415,981*
437-4-463.0No003194029710No557,931*
427-3-540.5No018324017200.0%724,828*
416-5-420.7No002184031800.0490,958
7-2-621.6No003194030700.0405,989*
406-4-58.6No01831411820.1740,506
5-7-39.0No01832401720.1321,591*
396-3-62.9No00319423050.5737,268
5-6-42.8No00319423050.6478,745*
385-5-50.7No0193542122.6766,482
6-2-70.8No01103642122.3555,040*
375-4-60.2No0042448237.8939,705
4-7-40.2No042549237.5439,671*
365-3-70.0No0114483717.0782,010
4-6-50.0No0114483717.6602,602*
354-5-60.0No007415131.4787,923
5-2-80.0No007425129.8535,305*
344-4-70.0No003326546.6807,232
3-7-50.0No003326546.0400,130*
334-3-80.0No001227661.1572,191
3-6-6OutNo01227762.1481,491*
323-5-7OutNo00148574.9524,501
4-2-9OutNo00158573.6348,761*
313-4-8OutNo0099184.1688,192*
303-3-9OutNo059590.7514,115*
292-5-8OutNo029894.9362,730*
282-4-9OutNo19997.4241,591*
272-3-10OutNo010098.8150,130*
261-5-9OutNo010099.487,654*
251-4-10OutNo010099.846,998*
241-3-11OutNo010099.923,094*
18-23OutNo100100.018,239*
Total:12.9%0.0%0012361016243728.1%16,371,360

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Crew finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeUnionImpactRed BullsNYCFCToronto FCDC UnitedOrlandoRevolutionFire
55-6312.3%Yes
5411-3-111.7100000
12-0-313.29900
5311-2-211.79900000000
10-5-012.499000
5210-4-112.49700110000
11-1-312.297000110000
5110-3-212.293111211000
11-0-411.393111210000
9-6-012.591112220100
5010-2-311.684223331110
9-5-111.983223431110
499-4-210.768446752211
10-1-410.769345652211
8-7-09.969446653211
489-3-39.2495691084321
8-6-19.7495691084321
10-0-59.051568984321
479-2-47.529781212116532
8-5-27.628781213116532
7-8-07.530681113116532
468-4-35.513791214127542
9-1-55.713891213117542
7-7-16.014781315127542
458-3-43.64671012106532
7-6-23.64671112106432
9-0-63.75681111106542
6-9-03.06671314107632
447-5-31.91457874321
8-2-52.01457874321
6-8-11.91458985321
437-4-40.90224542211
8-1-60.90234542211
6-7-20.90224542211
5-10-00.80116564221
427-3-50.30112211100
6-6-30.30112211100
8-0-70.30112211100
5-9-10.60112221110
416-5-40.10000100000
7-2-60.10001100000
5-8-20.10001110000
406-4-50.0000000000
5-7-30.0000000000
7-1-70.0000000000
396-3-60.0000000000
5-6-40.0000000000
385-5-50.0000000000
375-4-6No000
18-36No
Total:0.4%1.30.50.60.91.10.90.50.40.30.2
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 7/10100.0*Lottery seed
Crew 1 DC United 1 +0.5
Crew 1 Toronto FC 1 +0.5
Sounders 5 FC Dallas 0 +0.1
Fire 1 Sporting KC 0 +0.1
Galaxy 1 Dynamo 0 -0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
FC Dallas vs Fire-0.1+0.0+0.1
Real Salt Lake vs Revolution-0.0-0.0+0.1
Whitecaps vs Orlando-0.0-0.0+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 7/17100.0*Lottery seed
Crew vs Orlando-0.8+0.5+1.0
Dynamo vs Whitecaps+0.1-0.0-0.1
Revolution vs Fire+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920
6315-0-066331
6114-1-0100
6014-0-1206020
5913-2-0365095
5813-1-12061137
5712-3-0774514
5612-2-15738132
5512-1-216472620
5411-3-10545353200
5311-2-2402455710
5210-4-1027148517210
5110-3-2160464274300
5010-2-3803523968200
499-4-2302314261942000
489-3-311203643276100
479-2-40502423881741000
468-4-30112034630862000
458-3-4004022238101851000
447-5-30101013273296200
437-4-4003019338111592000
427-3-5010803171921102000
416-5-4002018213272410200
7-2-600301931427239200
406-4-5010816213123810
396-3-60003021026332061
5-6-400301926332161
385-5-501003143133163
6-2-701003153232152
375-4-60000162137298
4-7-4000162137287
365-3-7000211313917
4-6-5000210314018
354-5-60004214431
5-2-800005224430
344-4-70001114147
3-7-50001124146
334-3-8000063361
3-6-60053262
323-5-70022374
313-4-80011584
303-3-900991
292-5-80595
282-4-90397
272-3-100199
261-5-90199
251-4-100100
241-3-110100
231-2-120100
220-4-110100
18-21100
Total:000001020316135810141828