Columbus Crew Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.4 to 61.9%
21 points   5-6-6

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 6/26100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Revolution 1 Whitecaps 2 +1.5
+0.2
-0.1
+0.1
Real Salt Lake 2 Crew 2 -1.2
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
Union 2 Impact 2 +0.7
-0.1
Toronto FC 0 DC United 0 +0.2
+0.1
NYCFC 1 Red Bulls 3 *+0.1
-0.2
-0.1
Sporting KC 2 Rapids 0 -0.2
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 7/3100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Crew vs Red Bulls+8.9-5.4-12.5
+1.0-0.6-1.3
+0.1-0.1-0.2
-0.8+0.4+1.3
+0.5-0.3-0.7
FC Dallas vs Revolution+1.2-0.0-2.6
+0.1+0.0-0.3
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Real Salt Lake vs Orlando+1.0+0.1-1.5
+0.2+0.0-0.3
+0.1-0.0-0.1
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Dynamo vs Fire+0.6-0.0-1.8
+0.0+0.0-0.1
-0.0-0.0+0.1
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Impact vs NYCFC-0.9+1.3+0.4
-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.0-0.0+0.1
Galaxy vs Toronto FC+0.2-0.1-0.5
+0.1-0.0-0.2
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Rapids vs Whitecaps+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.3-0.1-0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Crew finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910SpoonCount
7217-0-0In99.9%1000No5,724,451
7016-1-0In99.4100No5,881
6916-0-1In99.11000No8,829
6815-2-0In98.21000No42,293
6715-1-1In97.010000No125,120
6614-3-0In94.710000No273,950*
6514-2-1In91.39910No805,751
6414-1-2In86.59820No1,728,373*
6313-3-1In78.99640No3,780,451*
6213-2-2In69.794600No8,222,017*
6112-4-1In57.8891100No15,581,185*
6012-3-2In44.28316100No29,969,610*
5912-2-3In30.97623100No54,342,481*
5811-4-2In18.66532300No92,379,511*
5711-3-3In9.65440600No155,124,391*
5611-2-4In4.0424711100No246,105,820*
5510-4-3In1.3305018100No374,896,306*
5410-3-4100.0%0.32049274000No556,126,238*
539-5-3100.00.01143378000No785,855,850*
529-4-4100.00.06344415200No1,073,676,203*
519-3-5100.00.022345254000No1,419,818,947*
508-5-4100.00.0113413510100No1,799,572,324*
498-4-599.9No06314218300No2,207,753,129*
488-3-699.6No022042296000No2,615,537,603*
477-5-598.6No0110363814100No2,978,996,251*
467-4-695.8No0042542244000No3,282,302,050*
456-6-589.5No00114393510100No3,486,855,975*
446-5-678.4No00062943202000.0%3,564,675,045*
436-4-762.4No0021842326000.03,519,425,443*
425-6-643.9No0019354213100.03,345,048,592*
415-5-726.7No003234623400.03,056,499,180*
405-4-813.9No001134234910.02,690,667,013*
394-6-76.2No000632411820.12,274,263,804*
384-5-82.3No00221422960.61,843,170,020*
374-4-90.7No001123738122.11,433,749,958*
363-6-80.2No00062945215.61,066,312,300*
353-5-90.0No00319463212.2756,761,212*
343-4-100.0No00111424522.3512,450,651*
332-6-90.0No006355835.2329,388,393*
322-5-100.0No003277049.5200,329,739*
312-4-110.0No001188063.2115,050,249*
301-6-10OutNo00128875.061,976,887*
291-5-11OutNo0079384.131,056,602*
281-4-12OutNo0049690.614,419,336*
271-3-13OutNo029894.86,122,636*
260-5-12OutNo019997.32,328,093*
250-4-13OutNo010098.7780,193*
240-3-14OutNo010099.4223,299*
230-2-15OutNo010099.749,279
220-1-16OutNo10099.97,206
210-0-17OutNo0100100.05,724,480
Total:61.9%0.2%2591316181711731.5%46,026,090,600

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Crew finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeDC UnitedToronto FCRed BullsOrlandoRevolutionImpactNYCFCFireUnion
63-7212.5%Yes
6213-2-212.5100000
6112-4-112.5100000000
6012-3-212.5100000000000
5912-2-312.5100000000000
5811-4-212.5100000000000
5711-3-312.5100000000000
5611-2-412.599000000000
5510-4-312.498000000000
5410-3-412.396001111000
9-6-212.396001111000
539-5-312.191012221000
10-2-512.292012221000
529-4-411.883123443000
8-7-211.884123433000
10-1-611.883123433000
519-3-511.271146765110
8-6-311.170146765110
508-5-410.2542691097111
9-2-610.3562681087111
7-8-210.3562681097110
498-4-59.038281113129111
7-7-39.037281213129111
9-1-79.239281113119211
488-3-67.6233913151311221
7-6-47.5223914151411221
477-5-55.91121014161412221
8-2-76.11221014161412221
6-8-35.91131014161511221
467-4-64.452813151311221
6-7-44.242813141310221
8-1-84.552913151311221
456-6-52.81161011108221
7-3-73.02171012108221
446-5-61.70147875111
7-2-81.80147976111
5-8-41.70147875111
436-4-70.90024543111
5-7-50.90024543110
425-6-60.40012221000
6-3-80.40012221000
415-5-70.10001110000
405-4-80.00000000000
394-6-70.00000000000
384-5-80.0000000000
374-4-90.0000000000
364-3-100.0000000000
353-5-90.00000000
343-4-10No000000
21-33No
Total:3.7%15.40.93.65.56.45.64.50.90.90.5
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 6/26100.0*Lottery seed
Real Salt Lake 2 Crew 2 +0.2
Revolution 1 Whitecaps 2 -0.1
NYCFC 1 Red Bulls 3 +0.1
Union 2 Impact 2 -0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 7/3100.0*Lottery seed
Crew vs Red Bulls-1.0+0.6+1.4
FC Dallas vs Revolution-0.1-0.0+0.2
Real Salt Lake vs Orlando-0.1-0.0+0.1
Impact vs NYCFC+0.1-0.1-0.0
Galaxy vs Toronto FC-0.0-0.0+0.1
Dynamo vs Fire-0.0-0.0+0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920
7217-0-010000
7016-1-0991
6916-0-19910
6815-2-09820
6715-1-197300
6614-3-095500
6514-2-1918100
6414-1-28711200
6313-3-17917400
6213-2-270246000
6112-4-15831100000
6012-3-244391511000
5912-2-331452031000
5811-4-2194725730000
5711-3-31045261460000
5611-2-4438232310110000
5510-4-3129163414410000
5410-3-40199401611300000
539-5-301144015227200000
529-4-406133103410610000
519-3-5020234411114310000
508-5-4010131398276310000
498-4-5006031438810200000
488-3-6002020141722420000
477-5-50010100354346810000
467-4-60004025141618310000
456-6-500010140384325410000
446-5-600006029241610510000
436-4-700020180425151340000
425-6-60010903531623122000
415-5-7000302311228238100
405-4-8000101306253218400
394-6-700006021633291220
384-5-8000201826352261
374-4-9001003153332142
363-6-800000172437256
353-5-900000315353512
343-4-10000017274322
332-6-900003184435
322-5-100001104049
312-4-11000053263
301-6-1000022375
291-5-110011584
281-4-1200991
271-3-1300595
260-5-120397
250-4-130199
240-3-14199
230-2-150100
220-1-160100
210-0-170100
Total:01141811211421625886532