Columbus Crew Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.4 to 41.3%
23 points   5-8-7

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 7/19100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Crew 2 Impact 1 +6.7
+0.5
-2.1
+0.4
FC Dallas 2 New England 0 +1.2
+0.1
+0.0
Red Bulls 1 Earthquakes 1 +1.2
+0.1
+0.0
Fire 1 Union 1 +1.1
+0.1
Dynamo 2 Toronto FC 2 +0.3
-0.1
DC United 3 Chivas USA 1 -0.1
Sporting KC 2 Galaxy 1 -0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Earthquakes vs Fire+1.3+0.1-2.8
+0.1+0.0-0.2
+0.1-0.1-0.1
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Real Salt Lake vs Impact+0.1+0.0-0.3
-0.2+0.0+0.6
+0.0-0.0-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 7/26100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
New England vs Crew-9.3-0.0+16.6
-0.8-0.1+1.5
+0.6-0.1-1.0
-0.4-0.0+0.7
Real Salt Lake vs Red Bulls+1.4+0.1-3.3
+0.1+0.0-0.3
+0.1+0.0-0.1
New England vs Rapids-2.5+0.7+2.2
-0.2+0.1+0.2
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Sporting KC vs Union+1.1-0.1-3.4
+0.1+0.0-0.3
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Fire vs Whitecaps-1.8+1.0+2.1
-0.1+0.1+0.2
+0.0-0.0-0.1
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Toronto FC vs Sporting KC-0.7+0.2+0.7
-0.1+0.0+0.1
DC United vs Toronto FC+0.4-0.1-0.8
+0.1*+0.0-0.2
Impact vs Timbers-0.2+0.1+0.1
+0.4-0.1-0.3
Rapids vs Chivas USA-0.0+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Crew finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910SpoonCount
6514-0-0In63.7%9280No1,027,900
6313-1-0In40.679201No33,936
6213-0-1In32.6722620No43,893
6112-2-0In19.9603640No194,647
6012-1-1In13.7524260No503,103
5911-3-0In7.13949120No1,008,157*
5811-2-1In3.429521800No2,637,480
5711-1-2In1.521522610No5,007,756*
5610-3-1In0.413483630No9,779,749*
5510-2-2In0.18424550No18,724,439*
549-4-1100.0%0.0433531000No31,236,166*
539-3-2100.00.0224581600No52,810,613*
529-2-3100.00.01165825100No83,550,968*
518-4-2100.00.0095435200No123,582,567*
508-3-399.9No0545455000No179,926,123*
498-2-499.5No02355310000No245,946,416*
487-4-398.3No01235618200No321,377,717*
477-3-495.0No00145229500No407,108,222*
466-5-388.9No007443810100No267,097,235
7-2-587.3No007413912100No220,823,715*
456-4-476.4No03304420300No562,066,851*
446-3-558.7No01174132910No385,071,408
5-6-362.0No01194230810No238,114,703*
435-5-442.3No009333916200No389,235,203
6-2-639.9No008324018200No267,325,131*
425-4-524.1No003214129600No461,051,420
4-7-324.9No003214128600No203,696,085*
415-3-610.9No0110344015100.0%360,623,845
4-6-412.7No0112353813000.0284,275,616*
404-5-54.7No004244425200.0364,957,667
5-2-74.2No004234426200.0229,998,798*
394-4-61.3No001134140600.0353,549,129
3-7-41.4No001134139500.0172,251,915*
384-3-70.3No00530511310.1252,354,831*
3-6-50.3No000632501200.1190,989,041
373-5-60.0No00219542420.5354,520,586*
363-4-70.0No0009493651.9270,079,832*
353-3-80.0No00043947115.5194,981,304*
342-5-70.0No00126531912.4132,451,766*
332-4-8OutNo0016533123.084,925,272*
322-3-9OutNo008484436.551,019,077*
311-5-8OutNo04395851.128,391,497*
301-4-9OutNo01297065.014,640,132*
291-3-10OutNo00198076.96,911,235*
280-5-9OutNo0128886.02,904,471*
270-4-10OutNo079392.21,078,807*
260-3-11OutNo039796.1345,819*
250-2-12OutNo19998.385,950
240-1-13OutNo010099.413,577
230-0-14OutNo010099.91,026,210
Total:41.3%0.0%0171617181715721.4%7,831,357,980

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Crew finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeSporting KCDC UnitedToronto FCNew EnglandRed BullsUnionFireDynamoImpact
63-6512.5%Yes
6213-0-112.41000
6112-2-012.410000000
6012-1-112.5100000000
5911-3-012.51000000000
5811-2-112.5100000000000
5711-1-212.499000000000
5610-3-112.497000110100
5510-2-212.395000121100
549-4-112.190000242200
10-1-312.191000231200
539-3-211.884001453300
529-2-311.475002674500
8-5-111.373001694500
518-4-210.8630138116700
9-1-410.9651148106600
508-3-310.15011611148900
7-6-110.15011511148900
498-2-49.3371281416101110
7-5-29.3361171418101210
487-4-38.32412101619121310
8-1-58.22422111718111210
6-7-18.4251191620121410
477-3-47.11412121820131310
6-6-27.31412121821131410
8-0-67.01422131819131310
466-5-35.9712121820131410
7-2-55.7712131819131310
5-8-16.3812121822141510
456-4-44.5312111718121210
5-7-24.8311111720121310
7-1-64.3312111716111110
446-3-53.1111914149910
5-6-33.311191415101010
435-5-42.1001610107710
6-2-61.900161096610
4-8-22.3001610128810
425-4-51.10003664400
4-7-31.20004675400
6-1-71.00003653300
415-3-60.50001332200
4-6-40.60002332200
404-5-50.20001111100
394-4-60.10000000000
383-6-50.00000000000
373-5-60.0000000000
363-4-70.0000000000
352-6-60.0000000000
343-2-90.0000
23-33No
Total:3.0%7.90.50.74.87.68.35.45.50.40.2
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 7/19100.0*Lottery seed
Crew 2 Impact 1 -0.8
Fire 1 Union 1 -0.1
Red Bulls 1 Earthquakes 1 -0.1
FC Dallas 2 New England 0 -0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Earthquakes vs Fire-0.0-0.0+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 7/26100.0*Lottery seed
New England vs Crew+0.8+0.0-1.5
Sporting KC vs Union-0.1+0.0+0.2
Real Salt Lake vs Red Bulls-0.1-0.0+0.2
New England vs Rapids+0.1-0.0-0.1
Fire vs Whitecaps+0.1-0.1-0.1
Toronto FC vs Sporting KC+0.1-0.0-0.1
DC United vs Toronto FC-0.0-0.0+0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L12345678910111213141516171819
6514-0-06428800
6313-1-041382001
6213-0-1334026020
6112-2-02040351400
6012-1-11438402600
5911-3-07324451200
5811-2-132643918000
5711-1-21193815250100
5610-3-10122920352300
5510-2-2071923414500
549-4-10411234410100000
539-3-2025194018161000
529-2-30121431272221000
518-4-2000920342872000
508-3-30051036291640000
498-2-4002431252891000
487-4-300112216401352000
477-3-4000014745161341000
466-5-3000072421226830000
7-2-5000072391425930000
456-4-400302973712930000
446-3-50010173381317920000
5-6-3001019240111692000
435-5-4000091338212081000
6-2-600081319222081000
425-4-5000302141828196100
4-7-3000302141728196100
415-3-60010101102730164000
4-6-4001012192630164000
404-5-5000040316322912200
5-2-700040417322912200
394-4-60001017233525710
3-7-40001017233625710
384-3-7000021231361730
3-6-50000021130361730
373-5-600000419383080
363-4-700000193140182
353-3-80000031942316
342-5-7000110354212
332-4-80004244923
322-3-9001144836
311-5-80074151
301-4-90033265
291-3-100012277
280-5-9001486
270-4-1000892
260-3-110496
250-2-120298
240-1-13199
230-0-140100
Total:00012531331447910108641