Columbus Crew Playoff Chances

Lost to Sounders 0-1, playoff odds down 10.3 to 43.8%
8 points   2-2-4

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 4/24100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Sounders 1 Crew 0 -5.0
-0.5
-0.3
+1.6
-0.3
Red Bulls 4 FC Dallas 0 -0.9
+0.4
-0.1
NYCFC 3 Whitecaps 2 -0.9
-0.1
+0.2
-0.0
Fire 1 DC United 1 +0.7
+0.1
-0.1
Revolution 1 Timbers 1 +0.7
-0.1
+0.0
Revolution 2 Orlando 2 +0.6
+0.1
-0.1
NYCFC 1 Impact 1 +0.6
+0.1
-0.1
Union 1 Earthquakes 1 +0.3
+0.0
Impact 2 Rapids 2 +0.2
+0.1
+0.0
Red Bulls 3 Orlando 2 +0.2
+0.1
+0.5
Real Salt Lake 2 Dynamo 1 -0.3
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Crew vs Impact+8.4-3.7-9.2
+0.8-0.4-0.8
+0.2-0.1-0.2
-3.3+1.2+3.8
+0.5-0.2-0.6
Orlando vs Red Bulls-0.2+0.6-0.4
-0.0+0.1+0.0
-0.1*+0.0+0.4
Toronto FC vs FC Dallas-0.2+0.2+0.4
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Timbers vs Toronto FC+0.2+0.0-0.3
+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.3-0.1-0.3
Sporting KC vs Galaxy+0.0-0.0-0.1
Sounders vs Earthquakes+0.2-0.1-0.3
Dynamo vs Sporting KC+0.5-0.3-0.7
Whitecaps vs Timbers+0.1-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Crew finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910SpoonCount
72-86In100.0%100No225,772*
7120-3-3In99.31000No2,099*
7019-5-2In98.91000No4,357*
6919-4-3In97.81000No9,186*
6819-3-4In96.31000No18,702*
6718-5-3In94.3991No35,940*
6618-4-4In91.4991No67,345*
6517-6-3In87.49820No122,990*
6417-5-4In81.89640No220,801*
6317-4-5In74.895500No381,453*
6216-6-4In65.992800No641,346*
6116-5-5In55.7881100No1,052,648*
6016-4-6In44.3831610No1,681,653*
5915-6-5In32.9772210No2,617,542*
5815-5-6In22.16928300No3,972,363*
5714-7-5In13.360355000No5,876,431*
5614-6-6In6.950419100No8,490,378*
5514-5-7100.0%3.03946141000No11,956,500*
5413-7-6100.01.02947213000No16,434,243*
5313-6-7100.00.31945296000No22,043,183*
5213-5-8100.00.0123936111000No28,878,358*
5112-7-7100.00.063141193000No36,908,641*
5012-6-8100.00.0321412871000No46,068,505*
4911-8-799.90.01123536142000No56,139,109*
4811-7-899.5No062639235000No66,788,923*
4711-6-998.3No02163632112000No77,571,173*
4610-8-894.9No0182838215000No87,939,773*
4510-7-987.5No00318363111200No97,304,817*
4410-6-1074.8No00192837205000.0%105,113,523*
439-8-957.7No000418363011100.0110,789,115*
429-7-1039.2No0019293720400.0113,917,139*
419-6-1123.1No00041936301010.0114,257,997*
408-8-1011.7No0011030371830.1111,774,909*
398-7-115.1No000521392860.5106,589,531*
388-6-121.9No0002133538121.899,061,448*
377-8-110.6No00172844214.989,667,859*
367-7-120.2No000319463211.079,049,936*
357-6-130.0No000112434420.167,826,028*
346-8-120.0No0007375631.956,617,492*
336-7-130.0No003296744.845,939,501*
326-6-140.0No002227757.636,201,439*
315-8-130.0No001158468.927,696,747*
305-7-14OutNo00109078.220,556,730*
295-6-15OutNo0069485.314,773,843*
284-8-14OutNo0049690.510,287,655*
274-7-15OutNo029894.06,912,513*
264-6-16OutNo019996.44,489,089*
253-8-15OutNo019997.82,808,367*
243-7-16OutNo010098.71,690,327*
233-6-17OutNo010099.3976,396*
222-8-16OutNo010099.6540,878*
212-7-17OutNo010099.8284,344*
202-6-18OutNo010099.8143,338*
192-5-19OutNo010099.967,785*
8-18OutNo100100.0274,400*
Total:43.8%0.4%24791012131414159.1%1,801,762,560

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Crew finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeToronto FCUnionImpactOrlandoDC UnitedNYCFCFireRed BullsRevolution
64-8612.5%Yes
6317-4-512.51000
6216-6-412.610000
6116-5-512.61000000000
6016-4-612.6100000000000
5915-6-512.5100000000000
5815-5-612.5100000000000
5714-7-512.5100000000000
5614-6-612.599000000000
5514-5-712.499000000000
5413-7-612.497000100000
14-4-812.497000100000
5313-6-712.294111111100
12-9-512.294111111100
5213-5-811.988122221111
12-8-611.987122221111
5112-7-711.378233432221
13-4-911.478233432221
5012-6-810.665345654322
11-9-610.564455654332
13-3-1010.564355654332
4911-8-79.448567875543
12-5-99.449567865543
10-11-59.347577875543
4811-7-88.0326891086654
12-4-107.9326891086654
10-10-67.8316891086654
4711-6-96.31969101197765
10-9-76.21879101197765
12-3-116.21869101197765
4610-8-84.696891097655
11-5-104.696891097665
9-11-64.586891097655
4510-7-93.13577876554
11-4-113.03477876554
9-10-73.03577876554
4410-6-101.81355654433
9-9-81.81345654433
439-8-90.90233332222
10-5-110.90233332222
429-7-100.40111221111
419-6-110.20011110000
408-8-100.10000000000
398-7-110.00000000000
388-6-120.00000000000
377-8-110.0000000000
367-7-120.0000000000
357-6-130.0000000000
346-8-120.00000000
8-33No
Total:2.7%12.91.72.42.73.02.62.01.81.61.3
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 4/24100.0*Lottery seed
Sounders 1 Crew 0 +0.7
Red Bulls 4 FC Dallas 0 +0.1
Fire 1 DC United 1 -0.1
Revolution 2 Orlando 2 -0.1
NYCFC 3 Whitecaps 2 +0.1
NYCFC 1 Impact 1 -0.1
Revolution 1 Timbers 1 -0.1
Union 1 Earthquakes 1 -0.0
Impact 2 Rapids 2 -0.0
Red Bulls 3 Orlando 2 -0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/1100.0*Lottery seed
Crew vs Impact-1.1+0.5+1.2
Orlando vs Red Bulls+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920
75-86100
7421-3-2991
7321-2-3991
7220-4-21000
7120-3-39910
7019-5-29910
6919-4-39820
6819-3-49630
6718-5-39451
6618-4-491710
6517-6-38710200
6417-5-48215400
6317-4-575205000
6216-6-466268000
6116-5-55633110000
6016-4-64439151100
5915-6-53344193100
5815-5-6224723530000
5714-7-513472510500000
5614-6-67432417810000
5514-5-73362026122100000
5413-7-61281434156300000
5313-6-70198381712510000
5213-5-8012336152292100000
5112-7-7061301031136300000
5012-6-80302153613156110000
4911-8-701012134102610420000
4811-7-80060265341211510000
4711-6-900201623510229320000
4610-8-800108028532119410000
4510-7-9000301723410208310000
4410-6-1000109028631129410000
439-8-90000401823411161141000
429-7-1000010912871821113000
419-6-1100004019314252210200
408-8-10000101017212921810
398-7-1100005031327301750
388-6-1200002016193227112
377-8-11001002102634215
367-7-12000001417343211
357-6-13000000210294020
346-8-120000004204332
336-7-1300002134145
326-6-14000173558
315-8-13000042769
305-7-1400022078
295-6-150011485
284-8-14000990
274-7-1500694
264-6-1600496
253-8-150298
243-7-160199
233-6-170199
222-8-1600100
212-7-170100
202-6-180100
192-5-190100
181-7-180100
171-6-190100
161-5-200100
8-15100
Total:021415172921034688999