Columbus Crew Playoff Chances

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 60%
0 points   0-0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/6100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Dynamo vs Crew-4.3+0.1+9.9
-0.5-0.0+1.3
-1.3-0.1+3.2
+1.2-0.3-2.5
-0.3-0.0+0.7
Union vs Rapids-0.7+0.5+1.0
-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Whitecaps vs Toronto FC+0.5-0.0-1.1
+0.1+0.0-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Galaxy vs Fire+0.5-0.0-1.1
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Sporting KC vs Red Bulls+0.5-0.0-1.1
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Sounders vs Revolution+0.5-0.0-1.1
+0.1+0.0-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Orlando vs NYCFC-0.2+0.4-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.1
DC United vs Impact-0.2+0.4-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.1
Timbers vs Real Salt Lake-0.0+0.1-0.1
FC Dallas vs Earthquakes-0.0+0.1-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/13100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Crew vs Toronto FC+6.5-4.2-9.8
+0.8-0.5-1.2
+1.6-1.2-2.1
-1.7+1.0+2.7
+0.5-0.3-0.7
Fire vs Whitecaps-0.7+0.5+1.0
-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Dynamo vs Orlando+0.5-0.0-1.1
+0.1+0.0-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Real Salt Lake vs Union+0.5-0.0-1.1
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
+0.0-0.0-0.1
NYCFC vs Revolution-0.2+0.4-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.1
Timbers vs Galaxy-0.0+0.1-0.1
FC Dallas vs Sporting KC-0.0+0.1-0.1
Sounders vs Earthquakes-0.0+0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Crew finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910SpoonCount
79-102In100.0%100No833,178*
7824-6-4In100.01000No20,929*
7724-5-5In99.91000No38,895*
7623-7-4In99.91000No70,845*
7523-6-5In99.91000No127,334*
7423-5-6In99.91000No219,941*
7322-7-5In99.91000No375,398*
7222-6-6In99.81000No624,547*
7121-8-5In99.61000No1,020,211*
7021-7-6In99.410000No1,626,132*
6921-6-7In99.010000No2,542,975*
6820-8-6In98.49910No3,900,539*
6720-7-7In97.49910No5,862,437*
6620-6-8In95.998200No8,633,860*
6519-8-7In93.798200No12,481,844*
6419-7-8In90.596400No17,674,514*
6318-9-7In86.094600No24,571,256*
6218-8-8In79.9918000No33,498,273*
6118-7-9In72.08812000No44,790,747*
6017-9-8In62.382171000No58,763,963*
5917-8-9In51.076222000No75,656,549*
5817-7-10In38.867294000No95,589,834*
5716-9-9In26.858356000No118,513,005*
5616-8-10100.0%16.44741111000No144,177,738*
5515-10-9100.08.53644173000No172,155,244*
5415-9-10100.03.625442561000No201,746,993*
5315-8-11100.01.11640321120000No231,996,133*
5214-10-10100.00.3932371840000No261,844,548*
5114-9-1199.90.0523372691000No289,981,740*
5014-8-1299.60.021432331640000No315,120,476*
4913-10-1198.50.01723352481000No336,049,645*
4813-9-1295.60.003143132164000No351,577,652*
4713-8-1389.0No0172234259200No360,854,297*
4612-10-1277.4No00313293218500No363,340,320*
4512-9-1361.0No00162133271020No358,800,193*
4412-8-1442.6No000212283419500.0%347,465,318*
4311-10-1325.9No000152034281010.0330,034,930*
4211-9-1413.6No000021129351830.0307,227,971*
4110-11-136.2No0001521372870.1280,403,085*
4010-10-142.4No0002133437130.6250,756,203*
3910-9-150.8No000172743222.4219,705,348*
389-11-140.2No00031945326.5188,575,006*
379-10-150.1No000112424413.7158,484,293*
369-9-160.0No00017375524.1130,390,755*
358-11-150.0No0004306636.5104,985,924*
348-10-160.0No0002237549.582,701,886*
338-9-170.0No001178261.863,719,843*
327-11-160.0No000128872.347,974,556*
317-10-17OutNo0089280.735,297,116*
307-9-18OutNo0059587.025,358,272*
296-11-17OutNo0039791.517,789,811*
286-10-18OutNo029894.712,160,728*
276-9-19OutNo019996.78,110,264*
265-11-18OutNo019998.05,263,142*
255-10-19OutNo0010098.93,328,482*
245-9-20OutNo0010099.42,042,633*
234-11-19OutNo010099.61,219,695*
224-10-20OutNo010099.8709,774*
214-9-21OutNo010099.9397,987*
204-8-22OutNo010099.9215,945*
193-10-21OutNo0100100.0113,259*
183-9-22OutNo0100100.057,790*
173-8-23OutNo10099.927,885*
162-10-22OutNo0100100.013,169*
0-15OutNo100100.0820,985*
Total:60.0%5.0%101010101010101010105.0%6,520,434,240

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Crew finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeRed BullsNYCFCOrlandoDC UnitedRevolutionToronto FCImpactFireUnion
67-10212.5%Yes
6620-6-812.51000
6519-8-712.51000
6419-7-812.5100000000
6318-9-712.5100000000000
6218-8-812.5100000000000
6118-7-912.5100000000000
6017-9-812.5100000000000
5917-8-912.5100000000000
5817-7-1012.5100000000000
5716-9-912.5100000000000
5616-8-1012.499000000000
15-11-812.499000000000
5515-10-912.497000000000
16-7-1112.497000000000
5415-9-1012.294111111111
16-6-1212.294111111111
5315-8-1112.088111111111
14-11-911.988111111111
5214-10-1011.477222222222
15-7-1211.578222222222
5114-9-1110.664444444444
15-6-1310.765444444444
13-12-910.663444444444
5014-8-129.448555555555
13-11-109.346555555555
15-5-149.448555555555
4913-10-117.830777777777
14-7-137.932767777777
12-13-97.830777777777
4813-9-126.017777777777
12-12-105.916777777777
14-6-146.118777777777
4713-8-134.38666666666
12-11-114.18666666666
4612-10-122.63555555555
13-7-142.63555555555
4512-9-131.41333333333
4412-8-140.70222222222
4311-10-130.30111111111
4211-9-140.10000000000
4111-8-150.00000000000
4010-10-140.00000000000
3910-9-150.00000000000
3810-8-160.0000000000
379-10-150.0000000000
369-9-160.0000000000
359-8-17No000000000
347-13-14No00
0-33No
Total:5.0%30.02.22.22.22.22.22.22.22.22.2
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/6100.0*Lottery seed
Dynamo vs Crew+0.7-0.0-1.5
Union vs Rapids+0.1-0.1-0.1
Sounders vs Revolution-0.0-0.0+0.1
Whitecaps vs Toronto FC-0.0-0.0+0.1
Galaxy vs Fire-0.0-0.0+0.1
Sporting KC vs Red Bulls-0.0-0.0+0.1
Orlando vs NYCFC+0.0-0.1+0.0
DC United vs Impact+0.0-0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/13100.0*Lottery seed
Crew vs Toronto FC-0.9+0.6+1.4
Fire vs Whitecaps+0.1-0.1-0.1
Real Salt Lake vs Union-0.0-0.0+0.1
Dynamo vs Orlando-0.0-0.0+0.1
NYCFC vs Revolution+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920
84-102100
8326-5-31000
79-82100
7824-6-410000
7724-5-510000
7623-7-410000
7523-6-510000
7423-5-610000
7322-7-510000
7222-6-610000
7121-8-510000
7021-7-699000
6921-6-799100
6820-8-6981100
6720-7-7972100
6620-6-89632000
6519-8-79442000
6419-7-89164000
6318-9-78686000
6218-8-88011800000
6118-7-972161200000
6017-9-8622016010000
5917-8-9512522120000
5817-7-103929272400000
5716-9-92731323600000
5616-8-10163134711010000
5515-10-98273212161300000
5415-9-1042226182226010000
5315-8-1111517232651002000000
5214-10-100982425111714000000
5114-9-110532018182338010000
5014-8-1202113923249151400000
4913-10-1101073201817213801000
4813-9-12000311492222915140000
4713-8-13001072201618214920000
4612-10-1200003013722211116510000
4512-9-130001062191420221340000
4412-8-1400000201152320221130000
4311-10-130000105118132523113000
4211-9-140000002011518282210200
4110-11-130000010529232921820
4010-10-14000002031326301961
3910-9-1500001015173129142
389-11-14000000292435256
379-10-150000000315333514
369-9-1600000018264124
358-11-150000003174237
348-10-16000001103950
338-9-170000063262
327-11-16000032572
317-10-1700011881
307-9-180011287
296-11-17000892
286-10-18000595
276-9-1900397
265-11-1800298
255-10-190199
245-9-200199
234-11-1900100
224-10-200100
214-9-210100
204-8-220100
193-10-210100
183-9-220100
173-8-230100
162-10-220100
152-9-230100
0-14100
Total:55555555555555555555