Columbus Crew Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.1 to 87%
14 points   4-2-4

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 5/17100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Orlando 4 Galaxy 0 -0.7
-0.1
Union 1 DC United 0 -0.2
+0.1
+0.3
Sporting KC 4 Revolution 2 +0.1
+0.1
+0.1
+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/22100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Crew vs Fire+4.0-2.6-7.6
+0.8-0.6-1.4
+1.3-1.2-1.9
-0.2+0.1+0.4
+0.3-0.3-0.6
Earthquakes vs Orlando+0.5-0.0-1.3
+0.1+0.0-0.2
-0.1+0.1+0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Impact vs FC Dallas-0.8+0.4+0.9
-0.1+0.1+0.1
+0.2+0.1-0.3
Toronto FC vs Timbers-0.5+0.3+0.7
-0.2+0.1+0.2
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Real Salt Lake vs NYCFC+0.2+0.0-0.6
Revolution vs DC United-0.2+0.1+0.3
-0.1+0.1+0.1
+0.1+0.1-0.3
Red Bulls vs Union+0.0+0.1-0.3
-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.1+0.2+0.3
-0.0+0.0+0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Timbers vs DC United+0.1*-0.0-0.1
+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.2+0.1-0.3
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Sounders vs Sporting KC-0.4+0.3+0.5
Sounders vs Rapids-0.4+0.3+0.6
Rapids vs Whitecaps+0.1+0.0-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Crew finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910SpoonCount
77-86In100.0%100No208,352*
7620-2-2In99.81000No5,006*
7519-4-1In99.71000No10,523*
7419-3-2In99.61000No23,303*
7319-2-3In99.41000No46,857*
7218-4-2In99.01000No91,158*
7118-3-3In98.31000No173,289*
7017-5-2In97.51000No314,224*
6917-4-3In96.19910No553,473*
6817-3-4In94.19910No944,485*
6716-5-3In91.49820No1,555,201*
6616-4-4In87.59730No2,493,576*
6515-6-3In82.396400No3,867,939*
6415-5-4In75.793700No5,833,398*
6315-4-5In67.5901000No8,553,240*
6214-6-4In57.88514100No12,185,504*
6114-5-5In47.07920100No16,878,617*
6014-4-6In35.87226200No22,771,270*
5913-6-5In25.16333400No29,860,653*
5813-5-6In15.953397000No38,163,792*
5712-7-5In8.9434412100No47,508,846*
5612-6-6In4.2324718200No57,583,190*
5512-5-7100.0%1.62346264000No67,996,178*
5411-7-6100.00.51543348100No78,236,003*
5311-6-7100.00.19364014100No87,738,378*
5211-5-8100.00.05274322300No95,846,388*
5110-7-7100.00.021842317000No102,036,830*
5010-6-8100.00.0111363813100No105,861,195*
499-8-799.90.005274322300No106,968,401*
489-7-899.5No021741317100No105,320,483*
479-6-998.4No0110353914200No101,017,496*
468-8-895.8No005254223400No94,328,835*
458-7-990.5No0021640339100No85,766,388*
448-6-1081.5No0018334016200No75,901,434*
437-8-968.8No004234226500No65,339,685*
427-7-1053.4No00114383511100.0%54,695,622*
417-6-1137.6No0007304119200.044,530,715*
406-8-1023.8No003214228500.035,209,104*
396-7-1113.4No0011238371110.127,039,230*
386-6-126.6No000630431920.420,141,188*
375-8-112.9No00320442851.514,550,964*
365-7-121.1No00113413794.110,182,858*
355-6-130.4No0073444158.96,895,612*
344-8-120.1No00325482416.54,516,903*
334-7-130.0No00117483426.72,851,279*
324-6-140.0No0111444438.41,738,231*
313-8-130.0No006385550.71,021,967*
303-7-140.0No003316662.1575,113*
293-6-15OutNo02247572.5310,547*
282-8-14OutNo01178280.8160,654*
272-7-15OutNo0128887.078,841*
262-6-16OutNo0089291.636,945*
252-5-17OutNo049695.316,344*
241-7-16OutNo39797.06,880*
231-6-17OutNo19998.32,602*
221-5-18OutNo19999.1970*
211-4-19OutNo19999.3304*
14-20OutNo100100.0204,897*
Total:87.0%3.9%11151718151174200.3%1,646,751,360

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Crew finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeDC UnitedRed BullsRevolutionToronto FCOrlandoImpactFireNYCFCUnion
66-8612.5%Yes
6515-6-312.51000
6415-5-412.510000000
6315-4-512.510000000000
6214-6-412.5100000000000
6114-5-512.5100000000000
6014-4-612.5100000000000
5913-6-512.5100000000000
5813-5-612.5100000000000
5712-7-512.599000000000
13-4-712.599000000000
5612-6-612.498000100000
13-3-812.498000100000
5512-5-712.396001110000
11-8-512.495001111000
5411-7-612.291112211100
12-4-812.291112211100
5311-6-711.985123422100
10-9-511.984123432100
5211-5-811.475234643200
10-8-611.474234643200
5110-7-710.862447964310
11-4-910.861447964310
5010-6-89.9475691286511
9-9-69.8465691286511
11-3-109.9475691286511
499-8-78.732671114107611
10-5-98.833671114107611
489-7-87.520781316118711
10-4-107.520781316118711
8-10-67.419781316118711
479-6-96.111781316118821
8-9-76.010781316118821
468-8-84.65671215108721
9-5-104.75671215108721
458-7-93.3256101286611
9-4-113.3256101286611
448-6-102.21347965411
437-8-91.30235643311
427-7-100.70113422200
417-6-110.30111211100
406-8-100.10001100000
396-7-110.10000000000
386-6-120.00000000000
375-8-110.0000000000
365-7-120.0000000000
355-6-130.00000000
344-8-120.00000000
334-7-13No0
14-32No
Total:7.6%43.42.93.55.87.44.93.63.20.60.5
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 5/17100.0*Lottery seed
Union 1 DC United 0 -0.1
Sporting KC 4 Revolution 2 -0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/22100.0*Lottery seed
Crew vs Fire-0.7+0.6+1.3
Toronto FC vs Timbers+0.1-0.1-0.1
Red Bulls vs Union+0.1-0.1-0.1
Timbers vs DC United-0.1-0.0+0.1
Earthquakes vs Orlando-0.0-0.0+0.1
Impact vs FC Dallas+0.1-0.0-0.1
Revolution vs DC United+0.0-0.1-0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920
79-86100
7821-1-21000
7720-3-11000
7620-2-210000
7519-4-110000
7419-3-210000
7319-2-39910
7218-4-29910
7118-3-39810
7017-5-29720
6917-4-396310
6817-3-4945100
6716-5-3917200
6616-4-48710300
6515-6-382134000
6415-5-476177000
6315-4-56722100000
6214-6-458271401000
6114-5-547321911000
6014-4-6363624220000
5913-6-5253829440000
5813-5-61637327700000
5712-7-5934311312010000
5612-6-642828191712000
5512-5-72212126224400000
5411-7-61151330258801000
5311-6-70962924161311000
5211-5-805225182418430000
5110-7-70211711312110700000
5010-6-80101053119191221000
499-8-70005125132916630000
489-7-80020176351714710000
479-6-900101023313261132000
468-8-80005025736131041000
458-7-900020162381122720000
448-6-100001081327339620000
437-8-9000402333991282000
427-7-1000010141376151682000
417-6-1100000703031322176100
406-8-10000302118212715400
396-7-11001012031530261020
386-6-120000601825332050
375-8-110003003163331121
365-7-1200100182637224
355-6-130000031737329
344-8-1200000110324117
334-7-13000004234527
324-6-140002154538
313-8-1300194051
303-7-1400053362
293-6-15022572
282-8-14011881
272-7-15001387
262-6-1600892
252-5-170595
241-7-16397
231-6-17298
221-5-18199
211-4-19199
200-6-18199
14-19100
Total:47697116115103822222110