"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

Columbus Crew Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.8 to 45.8%
9 points   2-3-4

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 5/8100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Galaxy 4 Revolution 2 +0.6
-0.2
+0.0
DC United 0 NYCFC 2 -0.3
+0.2
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Crew vs Rapids+8.7-3.4-8.4
+0.8-0.3-0.7
+0.2-0.1-0.2
-3.5+1.1+3.7
+0.5-0.2-0.5
Whitecaps vs Fire+0.7+0.0-1.8
+0.0+0.0-0.1
-0.1-0.1+0.2
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Revolution vs Fire-0.0+0.7-0.6
+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.3-0.3-0.4
DC United vs Red Bulls-0.3+0.8-0.4
-0.0+0.1-0.0
+0.1-0.2-0.0
Union vs Galaxy-0.5+0.2+0.6
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Toronto FC vs Whitecaps-0.2+0.1+0.4
-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.1+0.0+0.2
Impact vs Union-0.2+0.3+0.1
-0.0+0.1+0.0
Earthquakes vs Dynamo-0.2-0.0+0.4
Dynamo vs Real Salt Lake+0.3-0.2-0.5
Rapids vs Sporting KC-0.1+0.0+0.1
FC Dallas vs Timbers-0.1*+0.0+0.2
FC Dallas vs Sounders-0.0-0.0+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/15100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Toronto FC vs Crew-4.8+0.6+12.9
-0.5+0.0+1.3
-0.1-0.0+0.4
+1.8-0.5-4.5
-0.3+0.0+0.8
Fire vs Dynamo-1.1+0.7+1.4
-0.1+0.0+0.1
+0.1-0.2-0.0
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Sporting KC vs Orlando+0.7*-0.0-1.5
+0.1+0.0-0.2
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Timbers vs NYCFC+0.7+0.0-1.5
+0.1+0.0-0.2
+0.2-0.1-0.2
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Revolution vs FC Dallas-0.9+0.5+1.1
+0.5-0.3-0.7
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Toronto FC vs NYCFC+0.4+0.0-1.2
+0.0+0.0-0.1
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Union vs DC United+0.3+0.3-1.1
-0.0+0.1*+0.0
-0.2+0.0+0.5
Orlando vs Impact-0.6+0.6+0.7
-0.0+0.1*-0.0
+0.1-0.1-0.1
Red Bulls vs Fire-0.3+0.8-0.4
+0.1-0.2-0.1
NYCFC vs Red Bulls-0.2+0.7-0.3
-0.0+0.1+0.0
-0.1-0.0+0.4
Sounders vs Rapids+0.1-0.0-0.2
Sporting KC vs Real Salt Lake+0.1-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Crew finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910SpoonCount
73-84In100.0%100No710,942*
7220-3-2In99.51000No1,885*
7120-2-3In98.91000No4,382*
7019-4-2In98.31000No9,658*
6919-3-3In97.21000No21,020*
6818-5-2In95.41000No43,389*
6718-4-3In92.9991No87,238*
6618-3-4In89.49910No168,884*
6517-5-3In84.79820No318,044*
6417-4-4In78.79730No579,950*
6316-6-3In71.19550No1,026,851*
6216-5-4In62.192700No1,770,185*
6116-4-5In51.7891100No2,968,457*
6015-6-4In40.7841510No4,829,962*
5915-5-5In29.87821100No7,659,538*
5815-4-6In19.97028300No11,809,644*
5714-6-5In11.86134500No17,739,617*
5614-5-6In6.150418000No25,945,812*
5513-7-5100.0%2.64045141000No37,024,584*
5413-6-6In0.9294721300No51,434,494*
5313-5-7100.00.22045286000No69,648,706*
5212-7-6100.00.012403611100No92,000,158*
5112-6-7100.00.073141183000No118,433,523*
5012-5-8100.00.0321412771000No148,686,243*
4911-7-799.90.01133635132000No182,021,031*
4811-6-899.6No062739225000No217,307,448*
4711-5-998.5No03173732111000No253,010,563*
4610-7-895.5No0182938204000No287,194,756*
4510-6-988.9No00319373010100No317,865,198*
449-8-877.3No00110303719400No342,935,256*
439-7-960.9No00042037299100.0%360,662,005*
429-6-1042.5No000111303618300.0369,667,103*
418-8-925.9No0005213828810.0369,113,645*
408-7-1013.6No00021232361620.1359,037,581*
398-6-116.1No000624402650.7340,036,224*
387-8-102.3No0002153735102.4313,459,129*
377-7-110.8No000183043186.5281,149,721*
367-6-120.2No000422462813.9245,263,110*
356-8-110.1No00114444024.6207,960,211*
346-7-120.0No0018395337.6171,257,071*
336-6-130.0No0004326451.2136,952,085*
325-8-120.0No002247463.9106,206,034*
315-7-130.0No001178274.779,825,196*
305-6-14OutNo00118883.158,102,049*
294-8-13OutNo0079389.240,908,211*
284-7-14OutNo0049693.427,816,720*
274-6-15OutNo0039796.218,247,741*
263-8-14OutNo019997.811,528,347*
253-7-15OutNo019998.87,001,209*
243-6-16OutNo0010099.44,082,461*
232-8-15OutNo010099.72,275,877*
222-7-16OutNo010099.81,211,641*
212-6-17OutNo010099.9611,459*
202-5-18OutNo010099.9293,084*
191-7-17OutNo010099.9133,783*
181-6-18OutNo010099.955,681*
171-5-19OutNo10099.921,685*
161-4-20OutNo0100100.08,040*
9-15OutNo100Yes713,239*
Total:45.8%0.3%24791112131414139.3%5,706,857,760

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Crew finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeToronto FCUnionImpactOrlandoNYCFCFireDC UnitedRed BullsRevolution
63-8412.5%Yes
6216-5-412.510000000
6116-4-512.510000000000
6015-6-412.5100000000000
5915-5-512.5100000000000
5815-4-612.5100000000000
5714-6-512.5100000000000
5614-5-612.5100000000000
5513-7-512.499000000000
5413-6-612.497000110000
5313-5-712.294111111000
12-8-512.294111111000
5212-7-611.988122221110
13-4-811.988122221110
5112-6-711.479233342221
11-9-511.478233442221
13-3-911.479233342211
5012-5-810.766345563321
11-8-610.665355563331
4911-7-79.549577885442
12-4-99.650467785442
10-10-59.448577885442
4811-6-88.2346899106553
10-9-68.03268910106553
12-3-108.2346899106553
4711-5-96.620691010117663
10-8-76.519691011117663
9-11-56.419691011117663
4610-7-84.9969910117663
11-4-104.910691010117664
9-10-64.7969910117663
4510-6-93.34578996553
9-9-73.23578895553
11-3-113.34478995553
449-8-82.01355664442
10-5-102.01356664442
439-7-91.10233442221
10-4-111.00233442221
429-6-100.50122221111
8-9-80.50112221111
418-8-90.20011110000
408-7-100.10000000000
398-6-110.00000000000
387-8-100.00000000000
377-7-110.00000000000
367-6-120.0000000000
356-8-110.0000000000
346-7-120.0000000000
336-6-13No0000
9-32No
Total:2.8%13.21.72.62.93.13.32.01.81.71.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 5/8100.0*Lottery seed
Galaxy 4 Revolution 2 -0.0
DC United 0 NYCFC 2 +0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Crew vs Rapids-1.1+0.4+1.1
Union vs Galaxy+0.1-0.0-0.1
Whitecaps vs Fire-0.0-0.0+0.1
Revolution vs Fire+0.0-0.1+0.0
DC United vs Red Bulls+0.0-0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/15100.0*Lottery seed
Toronto FC vs Crew+0.6-0.1-1.7
Sporting KC vs Orlando-0.0-0.0+0.1
Revolution vs FC Dallas+0.1-0.0-0.1
Timbers vs NYCFC-0.0-0.0+0.1
Fire vs Dynamo+0.1-0.1-0.1
Toronto FC vs NYCFC-0.0-0.0+0.1
Union vs DC United-0.0-0.0+0.1
Orlando vs Impact+0.0-0.1-0.0
Red Bulls vs Fire+0.0-0.1+0.0
NYCFC vs Red Bulls+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920
75-84100
7421-2-21000
7320-4-11000
7220-3-210000
7120-2-39910
7019-4-29820
6919-3-39730
6818-5-29540
6718-4-39361
6618-3-4899100
6517-5-38513200
6417-4-47918300
6316-6-37124500
6216-5-4623070000
6116-4-55237101000
6015-6-44143141100
5915-5-530481831000
5815-4-6205022630000
5714-6-51249241150000
5614-5-664423188100000
5513-7-53371926122100000
5413-6-6128133415530000
5313-5-70207381712500000
5212-7-601233715219210000
5112-6-7071301030136300000
5012-5-80302153614136110000
4911-7-701013234112410320000
4811-6-80060266331210410000
4711-5-9003017235102183100000
4610-7-80108029632119410000
4510-6-9000301923510207310000
449-8-8000101002963110841000
439-7-9000040202359141141000
429-6-100000101103061520124100
418-8-900005021211232312300
408-7-100000201215182923920
398-6-1100006021025312061
387-8-1000002004163130142
377-7-110000100182335257
367-6-12000000314333614
356-8-110000017254225
346-7-120000003174338
336-6-13000001103851
325-8-12000053164
315-7-13000022375
305-6-140011683
294-8-130001089
284-7-1400693
274-6-1500496
263-8-1400298
253-7-1500199
243-6-160199
232-8-1500100
222-7-160100
212-6-170100
202-5-180100
191-7-170100
181-6-180100
171-5-190100
161-4-200100
9-15100
Total:021416282921024678999