Columbus Crew Playoff Chances

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 54.6%
0 points   0-0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/3100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Crew vs Fire+6.7-4.4-10.0
+0.8-0.5-1.1
+1.4-1.1-2.0
-1.6+0.9+2.5
+0.5-0.3-0.8
DC United vs Sporting KC-0.6+0.4+0.9
-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Rapids vs Revolution+0.5*-0.0-1.0
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Real Salt Lake vs Toronto FC+0.5*-0.0-1.0
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Whitecaps vs Union+0.4*-0.0-1.0
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Earthquakes vs Impact+0.5*-0.0-1.0
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Orlando vs NYCFC-0.2+0.4-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.0
Atlanta vs Red Bulls-0.2+0.4-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.0
Dynamo vs Sounders-0.0+0.1-0.1
Timbers vs Minnesota-0.0+0.1-0.0
Galaxy vs FC Dallas-0.0+0.1-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/11100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Dynamo vs Crew-4.5+0.0+10.4
-0.5-0.0+1.2
-1.2-0.2+3.0
+1.1-0.2-2.3
-0.3-0.0+0.8
Fire vs Real Salt Lake-0.6+0.4+0.9
-0.1+0.0+0.1
*-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Red Bulls vs Rapids-0.6+0.4+0.9
-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Impact vs Sounders-0.6+0.4+0.9
-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Minnesota vs Atlanta+0.5*-0.0-1.0
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Union vs Toronto FC-0.2+0.4-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.0
Revolution vs Orlando-0.2+0.4-0.2
-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.0
NYCFC vs DC United-0.2+0.4-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.0
Sporting KC vs FC Dallas-0.0+0.1-0.1
Galaxy vs Timbers-0.0+0.1-0.1
Earthquakes vs Whitecaps-0.0+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Crew finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield1234567891011SpoonCount
76-102InYes100No21,284*
7523-6-5In99.9%1000No2,964*
7423-5-6In99.81000No5,269*
7322-7-5In99.91000No8,698*
7222-6-6In99.81000No15,070*
7121-8-5In99.61000No24,076*
7021-7-6In99.31000No38,651*
6921-6-7In98.81000No61,001*
6820-8-6In98.1991No93,221*
6720-7-7In97.19910No138,974*
6620-6-8In95.49820No205,941*
6519-8-7In92.99730No297,757*
6419-7-8In89.295500No422,027*
6318-9-7In84.293700No584,750*
6218-8-8In77.6901000No800,044*
6118-7-9In69.08614100No1,068,992*
6017-9-8In58.68019100No1,404,872*
5917-8-9In46.77225300No1,805,345*
5817-7-10In34.463315000No2,281,211*
5716-9-9100.0%22.8533791000No2,828,949*
5616-8-10100.013.14242142000No3,440,416*
5515-10-9100.06.33143214000No4,110,078*
5415-9-10100.02.421412881000No4,814,393*
5315-8-11100.00.7133534143000No5,536,980*
5214-10-1099.90.172736227100No6,246,771*
5114-9-1199.60.031833291330000No6,918,684*
5014-8-1298.60.011026332171000No7,522,905*
4913-10-1195.80.004173129144000No8,018,644*
4813-9-1289.4No02924322392000No8,385,736*
4713-8-1377.8No004152930175100No8,613,649*
4612-10-1261.1No001721312511200No8,667,402*
4512-9-1342.0No000312273120610No8,566,612*
4412-8-1424.6No000161831281330No8,289,519*
4311-10-1312.2No000210253322710.0%7,875,141*
4211-9-145.1No000141632311420.07,332,827*
4110-11-131.8No0002925362350.16,689,243*
4010-10-140.5No0004173532100.45,985,548*
3910-9-150.1No0002103040181.55,243,577*
389-11-140.0No000152343284.74,500,117*
379-10-150.0No000215433910.83,782,809*
369-9-160.0No00110395120.23,110,573*
358-11-150.0No0005336232.12,505,671*
348-10-16OutNo003267145.31,971,971*
338-9-17OutNo001197958.01,518,113*
327-11-16OutNo01148669.21,144,391*
317-10-17OutNo0099078.3842,709*
307-9-18OutNo069485.3605,326*
296-11-17OutNo049690.4424,554*
286-10-18OutNo029893.9289,387*
276-9-19OutNo019996.3193,350*
265-11-18OutNo019997.7126,252*
255-10-19OutNo19998.779,353*
245-9-20OutNo010099.348,293*
234-11-19OutNo010099.629,305*
224-10-20OutNo010099.816,903*
214-9-21OutNo010099.99,633*
204-8-22OutNo010099.85,123*
0-19OutNo100100.022,862*
Total:54.6%4.5%999999999994.5%155,593,916

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Crew finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeAtlantaUnionOrlandoRed BullsDC UnitedFireRevolutionToronto FCNYCFCImpact
65-10212.5%Yes
6419-7-812.510000
6318-9-712.51000000
6218-8-812.5100000000000
6118-7-912.51000000000000
6017-9-812.51000000000000
5917-8-912.51000000000000
5817-7-1012.41000000000000
16-10-812.51000000000000
5716-9-912.4990000000000
17-6-1112.4990000000000
5616-8-1012.4980000000000
15-11-812.5980000000000
5515-10-912.3950000000000
16-7-1112.3960000000000
5415-9-1012.1901111111111
16-6-1212.2911111111111
14-12-812.0901111111111
5315-8-1111.7832222222222
14-11-911.6812222222222
16-5-1311.7832222222222
5214-10-1010.9693333333333
15-7-1211.0713333333333
13-13-810.9703333333333
5114-9-119.8544444444444
15-6-1310.0564444444444
13-12-99.8534444444444
5014-8-128.4385555555555
13-11-108.2366656666556
15-5-148.5385555555555
4913-10-116.5226666666666
14-7-136.8246666666666
12-13-96.4216666666666
4813-9-124.7116666666666
12-12-104.4105555555656
14-6-144.9126666666666
4713-8-133.154454444444
12-11-112.944444444444
4612-10-121.613333333333
13-7-141.613333333333
4512-9-130.802222222222
4412-8-140.301111111111
4311-10-130.100000000000
4211-9-140.000000000000
4111-8-150.000000000000
4010-10-140.00000000000
3910-9-150.00000000000
3810-8-160.0000000000
379-10-15No000
0-36No
Total:4.5%27.31.81.81.81.81.81.81.81.81.81.8
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/3100.0*Lottery seed
Crew vs Fire-1.0+0.7+1.5
Rapids vs Revolution-0.0-0.0+0.1
DC United vs Sporting KC+0.1-0.1-0.1
Whitecaps vs Union-0.0-0.0+0.1
Real Salt Lake vs Toronto FC-0.0-0.0+0.1
Earthquakes vs Impact-0.0-0.0+0.1
Orlando vs NYCFC+0.0-0.1+0.0
Atlanta vs Red Bulls+0.0-0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/11100.0*Lottery seed
Dynamo vs Crew+0.7-0.0-1.7
Red Bulls vs Rapids+0.1-0.1-0.1
Minnesota vs Atlanta-0.0-0.0+0.1
Impact vs Sounders+0.1-0.1-0.1
Fire vs Real Salt Lake+0.1-0.0-0.1
Union vs Toronto FC+0.0-0.1+0.0
Revolution vs Orlando+0.0-0.1+0.0
NYCFC vs DC United+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L12345678910111213141516171819202122
76-102100
7523-6-510000
7423-5-610000
7322-7-510000
7222-6-610000
7121-8-510000
7021-7-69900
6921-6-79910
6820-8-69811
6720-7-797210
6620-6-895320
6519-8-7934300
6419-7-88965000
6318-9-78497000
6218-8-8781210000
6118-7-969171401000
6017-9-859211901000
5917-8-947262413000
5817-7-10342929250000
5716-9-923303358010000
5616-8-10132933913020000
5515-10-96252914191400000
5415-9-1021921202438010000
5315-8-111121223268140300000
5214-10-10075222215202701000
5114-9-11031161320236130300000
5014-8-12010105212013192701000
4913-10-11000411611202271414000
4813-9-1200209420171520392000
4713-8-130000411482120916610000
4612-10-120001072191318211341000
4512-9-1300003012521182213410000
4412-8-1400001061171022231451000
4311-10-1300000201041424251551000
4211-9-14000010415152626156100
4110-11-130000201617272615510
4010-10-14000000271928261340
3910-9-1500000029223125102
389-11-140000013122733205
379-10-150000001518343111
369-9-160000210283920
358-11-1500015204232
348-10-160002134045
338-9-1700173458
327-11-1600042769
317-10-170022078
307-9-18011485
296-11-1700990
286-10-1800694
276-9-1900496
265-11-180298
255-10-190199
245-9-20199
234-11-190100
224-10-200100
214-9-210100
204-8-220100
193-10-210100
0-18100
Total:5555555555555555555555