Columbus Crew Playoff Chances 50/50

Lost to Portland 1-3, playoff odds down 6.2 to 73.2%
13 points   4-1-3

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 4/20100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Columbus 1 Portland 3 -5.2
-0.9
-1.8
+0.4
-0.5
Orlando 1 Vancouver 0 -0.7
-0.1
-0.1
Chicago 4 Colorado 1 -0.6
-0.1
-0.1
Atlanta 1 FC Dallas 2 +0.5
+0.1
-0.1
+0.0
Philadelphia 3 Montreal 0 -0.1
New England 1 NY Red Bulls 0 -0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Columbus vs DC United+7.6-1.6-6.6
+1.2-0.3-1.0
+1.8-0.6-1.4
-0.5+0.1+0.5
+0.7-0.2-0.6
DC United vs NYCFC+0.1+0.3-0.3
-0.1+0.1+0.0
-0.1+0.0+0.1
New England vs Montreal-0.2+0.4-0.1
+0.0+0.1-0.0
NYCFC vs Chicago-0.1+0.4-0.1
*+0.0+0.1-0.0
Seattle vs San Jose-0.2+0.1+0.2
Minnesota vs LA Galaxy+0.1+0.1-0.2
LAFC vs Seattle-0.1+0.2-0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 4/27100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Houston vs Columbus-6.1-1.8+7.3
-0.9-0.3+1.1
-1.4-0.6+1.8
+0.5+0.1-0.5
-0.5-0.2+0.7
Sporting KC vs New England+0.6+0.2-0.7
+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Atlanta vs Colorado-0.7+0.2+0.6
-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.0-0.0+0.1
-0.1+0.0+0.0
Vancouver vs Philadelphia+0.5+0.2-0.6
+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Minnesota vs DC United+0.4+0.1-0.5
+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Toronto FC vs Portland-0.4+0.1+0.4
-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.0-0.0+0.1
-0.1+0.0+0.1
NY Red Bulls vs Cincinnati-0.1+0.4-0.2
Philadelphia vs Cincinnati*+0.0+0.4-0.3
-0.1+0.1+0.0
-0.1+0.0+0.0
NYCFC vs Orlando-0.1+0.4-0.1
+0.0+0.1-0.0
Montreal vs Chicago-0.1+0.4-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
LA Galaxy vs RSL-0.2+0.1+0.2
FC Dallas vs San Jose-0.1+0.1+0.1
Seattle vs LAFC-0.0+0.2-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Columbus finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield123456789101112SpoonCount
77-91In100.0%100No18,009*
7620-3-3In99.81000No2,356*
7519-5-2In99.61000No4,422*
7419-4-3In99.41000No8,039*
7319-3-4In98.91000No14,095*
7218-5-3In98.31000No23,750*
7118-4-4In97.41000No40,138*
7018-3-5In96.01000No64,756*
6917-5-4In93.9991No102,245*
6817-4-5In91.09910No159,271*
6716-6-4In87.09820No238,530*
6616-5-5In81.997300No352,626*
6516-4-6In75.195500No509,013*
6415-6-5In66.993700No713,702*
6315-5-6In57.3901000No982,234*
6215-4-7In46.58614100No1,321,853*
6114-6-6In35.48019100No1,740,009*
6014-5-7In24.87324200No2,237,173*
5913-7-6In15.76531400No2,814,551*
5813-6-7In8.755378100No3,476,466*
5713-5-8In4.14441122000No4,195,970*
5612-7-7In1.63444193000No4,959,065*
5512-6-8100.0%0.524432671000No5,745,387*
5412-5-9100.00.1153832122000No6,510,515*
5311-7-8100.00.093036195100No7,223,669*
5211-6-9100.00.04213527102000No7,850,287*
5111-5-1099.90.021230321851000No8,355,624*
5010-7-999.7No16213326112000No8,703,401*
4910-6-1098.9No031228311961000No8,875,459*
4810-5-1196.4No016193127133000No8,865,878*
479-7-1090.3No0021025312182000No8,670,230*
469-6-1178.9No0014162929165100No8,286,498*
458-8-1062.2No0001821312511200No7,750,104*
448-7-1142.9No000313273119610No7,092,080*
438-6-1225.4No000161831281330No6,342,882*
427-8-1112.7No000210253322710.0%5,547,799*
417-7-125.4No000151732301320.04,738,559*
407-6-131.9No00021026352250.13,949,849*
396-8-120.6No0015183631100.33,215,662*
386-7-130.2No0002113139171.22,553,923*
376-6-140.0No00162443263.41,975,692*
365-8-130.0No00031743377.81,489,167*
355-7-140.0No00111404814.91,091,404*
345-6-150.0No0006345924.5777,484*
334-8-14OutNo003276935.9540,175*
324-7-15OutNo002217747.7363,435*
314-6-16OutNo001158458.9235,728*
304-5-17OutNo00118969.0149,401*
293-7-16OutNo0079277.691,337*
283-6-17OutNo0059584.253,275*
273-5-18OutNo039789.330,337*
262-7-17OutNo029893.116,674*
252-6-18OutNo19995.38,234*
242-5-19OutNo19997.74,213*
231-7-18OutNo19998.11,966*
221-6-19OutNo010099.0882*
13-21OutNo100100.016,197*
Total:73.2%3.4%121211111098776430.9%151,101,680

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Columbus finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeToronto FCDC UnitedPhiladelphiaOrlandoMontrealChicagoCincinnatiAtlantaNYCFCNew EnglandNY Red Bulls
67-9112.5%Yes
6616-5-512.51000
6516-4-612.51000
6415-6-512.510000
6315-5-612.5100000000000
6215-4-712.610000000000000
6114-6-612.510000000000000
6014-5-712.510000000000000
5913-7-612.510000000000000
14-4-812.410000000000000
5813-6-712.49900000000000
14-3-912.59900000000000
5713-5-812.49800000000000
12-8-612.49800000000000
5612-7-712.29600000000000
13-4-912.39700000000000
5512-6-812.09311111111100
11-9-612.09211111111110
13-3-1012.09311111100000
5412-5-911.68622212111111
11-8-711.58522222111111
5311-7-810.97433333222221
12-4-1011.07633323222211
10-10-610.77333333322221
5211-6-99.96144444433322
10-9-79.85845544433332
12-3-1110.06244444433222
5111-5-108.84656655544333
10-8-88.54366655544443
9-11-68.64366655544443
5010-7-97.12867766654444
11-4-117.43067766654444
9-10-76.92667766654444
4910-6-105.71666766654444
9-9-85.41466766654444
11-3-125.71667766654444
4810-5-114.1756655544443
9-8-93.8655655544433
479-7-102.5244444333332
10-4-122.5244444433332
469-6-111.3122222222211
459-5-120.6011111111111
448-7-110.2000000000000
438-6-120.1000000000000
428-5-130.0000000000000
417-7-120.0000000000000
407-6-130.000000000000
397-5-140.0000000000
386-7-13No000
13-37No
Total:5.7%35.12.22.32.42.22.22.01.61.51.51.41.3
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 4/20100.0*Lottery seed
Columbus 1 Portland 3 +1.1
Orlando 1 Vancouver 0 +0.1
Chicago 4 Colorado 1 +0.1
Atlanta 1 FC Dallas 2 -0.1
Philadelphia 3 Montreal 0 +0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Columbus vs DC United-1.4+0.3+1.2
New England vs Montreal+0.0-0.1+0.0
DC United vs NYCFC+0.0-0.1-0.0
NYCFC vs Chicago+0.0-0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 4/27100.0*Lottery seed
Houston vs Columbus+1.1+0.4-1.4
Vancouver vs Philadelphia-0.1-0.0+0.1
Minnesota vs DC United-0.1-0.0+0.1
Toronto FC vs Portland+0.1-0.0-0.1
Atlanta vs Colorado+0.1-0.0-0.1
Sporting KC vs New England-0.1-0.0+0.1
Philadelphia vs Cincinnati+0.0-0.1+0.0
NYCFC vs Orlando+0.0-0.1+0.0
Montreal vs Chicago+0.0-0.1+0.0
NY Red Bulls vs Cincinnati+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L123456789101112131415161718192021222324
78-91100
7720-4-21000
7620-3-310000
7519-5-210000
7419-4-39910
7319-3-49910
7218-5-39820
7118-4-49720
7018-3-59640
6917-5-49451
6817-4-5918100
6716-6-48711200
6616-5-582153000
6516-4-675205000
6415-6-567267000
6315-5-6573390000
6215-4-746391311000
6114-6-635451621000
6014-5-7254820420000
5913-7-6164922940000
5813-6-79462215711000
5713-5-84401922112200000
5612-7-72321430145300000
5512-6-802383416106110000
5412-5-90154341418102200000
5311-7-80912910261365010000
5211-6-904021531131491200000
5111-5-100201222810231255010000
5010-7-910602152813139120000
4910-6-10003012126922136601000
4810-5-110106019427131411230000
479-7-100002010124823147820000
469-6-1100104016326131613620000
458-8-100001081217241614620000
448-7-1100003012324132016720000
438-6-120000106118718231772000
427-8-110000201021122251772000
417-7-1200010514142526177100
407-6-130000201616272615510
396-8-12000100281929251330
386-7-1300000031123312281
376-6-140000014152931173
365-8-1300000282234278
355-7-1400000314323615
345-6-15000017254125
334-8-140004184236
324-7-15001113948
314-6-1600173459
304-5-170032769
293-7-160022178
283-6-17011584
273-5-18001089
262-7-170793
252-6-180595
242-5-190298
231-7-18298
221-6-19199
211-5-20199
201-4-21199
13-19100
Total:393938383736353343332221