Chicago Fire Playoff Chances 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.4 to 57.3%
9 points   2-3-2

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 4/20100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Chicago 4 Colorado 1 +8.6
+0.8
+0.6
-2.1
+0.7
Orlando 1 Vancouver 0 -0.9
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
Atlanta 1 FC Dallas 2 +0.7
+0.1
-0.1
+0.1
Columbus 1 Portland 3 +0.5
+0.1
+0.3
+0.0
DC United 0 NYCFC 2 -0.4
+0.1
Philadelphia 3 Montreal 0 -0.2
New England 1 NY Red Bulls 0 -0.1
+0.1
San Jose 4 Sporting KC 1 +0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
NYCFC vs Chicago-7.9-2.0+9.2
-0.8-0.3+1.0
-0.6-0.3+0.8
+1.2+0.2-1.3
-0.6-0.2+0.8
New England vs Montreal-0.2+0.5-0.1
+0.1-0.0-0.0
Columbus vs DC United-0.2+0.3-0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.0
Minnesota vs LA Galaxy+0.1+0.1-0.1
Seattle vs San Jose-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.1-0.0+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 4/27100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Montreal vs Chicago-7.9-2.0+9.2
-0.8-0.3+1.0
-0.6-0.3+0.8
+1.2+0.2-1.3
-0.6-0.2+0.8
Sporting KC vs New England+0.7+0.2-0.9
+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Atlanta vs Colorado-0.8+0.2+0.7
-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.2-0.1+0.2
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Houston vs Columbus+0.6+0.2-0.7
+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Vancouver vs Philadelphia+0.6+0.2-0.7
+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.1-0.0-0.1
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Minnesota vs DC United+0.5+0.2-0.6
+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Toronto FC vs Portland-0.5+0.1+0.4
-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.1+0.0+0.0
-0.1-0.0+0.1
-0.1+0.0+0.0
NY Red Bulls vs Cincinnati-0.1+0.5-0.2
+0.1-0.0-0.0
Philadelphia vs Cincinnati*+0.0+0.4-0.3
-0.0+0.1+0.0
-0.0-0.0+0.1
NYCFC vs Orlando-0.2+0.5-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
LA Galaxy vs RSL-0.1+0.0+0.1
Seattle vs LAFC+0.0+0.1-0.1
FC Dallas vs San Jose-0.1+0.0+0.0
-0.1-0.0+0.1
Colorado vs Vancouver+0.1-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Chicago finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield123456789101112SpoonCount
78-90InYes100No90,840*
7722-2-3In99.8%1000No1,684*
7621-4-2In99.51000No3,263*
7521-3-3In99.51000No6,567*
7420-5-2In99.11000No12,412*
7320-4-3In98.51000No22,830*
7220-3-4In97.81000No41,270*
7119-5-3In96.71000No71,731*
7019-4-4In95.01000No122,079*
6919-3-5In92.69910No202,688*
6818-5-4In89.39910No327,819*
6718-4-5In84.99820No519,467*
6617-6-4In79.29730No798,732*
6517-5-5In72.295500No1,202,538*
6417-4-6In63.593700No1,772,339*
6316-6-5In53.7901000No2,549,299*
6216-5-6In43.08514100No3,584,490*
6116-4-7In32.28019100No4,937,938*
6015-6-6In22.17325200No6,659,434*
5915-5-7In13.764315000No8,787,893*
5814-7-6In7.4543781000No11,352,136*
5714-6-7In3.44342132000No14,367,275*
5614-5-8In1.23244204000No17,814,770*
5513-7-7100.0%0.322422781000No21,636,014*
5413-6-8100.00.1143733133000No25,739,810*
5313-5-9100.00.0828362161000No30,029,760*
5212-7-8100.00.04193428123000No34,322,435*
5112-6-999.90.011128332061000No38,426,412*
5012-5-1099.6No051932281330000No42,183,001*
4911-7-998.3No021025322182000No45,354,524*
4811-6-1094.8No0151629291541000No47,798,954*
4710-8-986.8No0028223124102000No49,353,479*
4610-7-1073.1No0003132630196100No49,917,951*
4510-6-1154.6No0001618302814300No49,477,331*
449-8-1035.2No000029243223910No47,996,297*
439-7-1119.2No0001415293117400.0%45,619,776*
429-6-128.8No00017223326910.042,435,287*
418-8-113.4No000031330331730.038,630,432*
408-7-121.1No0001722362770.134,406,791*
398-6-130.3No00003143436130.429,984,442*
387-8-120.1No000182842221.625,543,656*
377-7-130.0No00042044324.321,257,717*
367-6-140.0No00021342449.417,285,213*
356-8-130.0No00018375517.213,727,068*
346-7-140.0No0004306527.110,630,456*
336-6-15OutNo002237438.58,030,975*
325-8-14OutNo001178250.15,909,714*
315-7-15OutNo000128761.14,232,994*
305-6-16OutNo0089270.62,948,870*
294-8-15OutNo0059578.51,996,738*
284-7-16OutNo039784.71,311,050*
274-6-17OutNo029889.4834,337*
263-8-16OutNo019992.9516,084*
253-7-17OutNo019995.3306,313*
243-6-18OutNo010096.9175,921*
233-5-19OutNo010098.196,889*
222-7-18OutNo010098.751,292*
212-6-19OutNo010099.326,156*
202-5-20OutNo010099.612,588*
191-7-19OutNo010099.85,813*
9-18OutNo100100.093,630*
Total:57.3%1.5%6888999999882.7%863,555,664

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Chicago finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeToronto FCDC UnitedColumbusPhiladelphiaOrlandoMontrealNYCFCCincinnatiAtlantaNew EnglandNY Red Bulls
66-9012.5%Yes
6517-5-512.510000
6417-4-612.51000000000
6316-6-512.510000000000000
6216-5-612.510000000000000
6116-4-712.510000000000000
6015-6-612.510000000000000
5915-5-712.510000000000000
14-8-512.510000000000000
5814-7-612.49900000000000
15-4-812.59900000000000
5714-6-712.49800000000000
15-3-912.49800000000000
5614-5-812.29600000000000
13-8-612.29601010000000
5513-7-711.99111111111110
14-4-912.09211111111100
5413-6-811.48422222211111
12-9-611.48322222211111
14-3-1011.68522222211111
5313-5-910.77333333322221
12-8-710.77233333322221
5212-7-89.65645554433332
13-4-109.85945444433322
11-10-69.65745554433322
5112-6-98.34066665544433
11-9-78.23966666554433
13-3-118.54256665544433
5012-5-106.82567776654443
11-8-86.62367776654444
10-11-66.82567776654443
4911-7-95.01266666654443
12-4-115.31466666654443
10-10-75.01266666654443
4811-6-103.5555555544333
10-9-83.3545554443333
12-3-123.7655555544333
4711-5-112.2233333332222
10-8-92.0233333322222
4610-7-101.0012222211111
11-4-121.1022222211111
4510-6-110.4011111111000
4410-5-120.1000000000000
439-7-110.0000000000000
429-6-120.0000000000000
419-5-130.0000000000000
408-7-120.000000000000
398-6-130.000000000000
389-2-16No0000
9-37No
Total:3.8%22.21.82.01.91.91.81.81.51.31.21.11.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 4/20100.0*Lottery seed
Chicago 4 Colorado 1 -1.4
Orlando 1 Vancouver 0 +0.1
Atlanta 1 FC Dallas 2 -0.1
Columbus 1 Portland 3 -0.0
Philadelphia 3 Montreal 0 +0.0
DC United 0 NYCFC 2 +0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
NYCFC vs Chicago+1.2+0.4-1.5
New England vs Montreal+0.0-0.1+0.0
Columbus vs DC United+0.0-0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 4/27100.0*Lottery seed
Montreal vs Chicago+1.3+0.4-1.5
Houston vs Columbus-0.1-0.0+0.1
Minnesota vs DC United-0.1-0.0+0.1
Vancouver vs Philadelphia-0.1-0.0+0.1
Sporting KC vs New England-0.0-0.0+0.1
Atlanta vs Colorado+0.1-0.0-0.0
Toronto FC vs Portland+0.1-0.0-0.0
NYCFC vs Orlando+0.0-0.1+0.0
Philadelphia vs Cincinnati+0.0-0.1+0.0
NY Red Bulls vs Cincinnati+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L123456789101112131415161718192021222324
78-90100
7722-2-310000
7621-4-210000
7521-3-39910
7420-5-29910
7320-4-39910
7220-3-49820
7119-5-39730
7019-4-49550
6919-3-5937100
6818-5-4899100
6718-4-58513200
6617-6-47918300
6517-5-572235000
6417-4-6642970000
6316-6-5543690000
6216-5-643421311000
6116-4-732471631000
6015-6-6225020520000
5915-5-714502210400000
5814-7-674721167110000
5714-6-73401824112200000
5614-5-81311331146400000
5513-7-7022735151271100000
5413-6-80143341320113300000
5313-5-90812792814760100000
5212-7-8040194301316102200000
5112-6-9010111279241366010000
5012-5-100050194281315112300000
4911-7-9002010124824147702000
4811-6-100104016326131613341000
4710-8-90002081217241691030000
4610-7-1000003012224121815920000
4510-6-1100001060176241717930000
449-8-1000000209222122119930000
439-7-11000010401461725201030000
429-6-12000010729212721103000
418-8-11000000303112328209200
408-7-120000101414252818710
398-6-130000000161728281540
387-8-1200000028213125102
377-7-130000003122733204
367-6-1400000161934309
356-8-1300000212303817
346-7-14000016244227
336-6-1500003164239
325-8-140001103950
315-7-1500063361
305-6-160032671
294-8-150012078
284-7-160011585
274-6-17001089
263-8-1600793
253-7-170595
243-6-180397
233-5-190298
222-7-18199
212-6-19199
202-5-200100
191-7-190100
181-6-200100
171-5-210100
9-16100
Total:152626263636364455555443