Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
Chance will make playoffsDirect qualifyChance will finish regular season at seed
9/5PGW-D-LGD%Change%Change1234567891011121314151617181920+Avg.ChangeRPIStrength10/5
BelgiumWGreece 2-1227-1-032In+3.2Yes+1.8171720271331003.2+1.032.879Belgium
EnglandWSlovakia 2-1206-2-01398.3%+13.599.1%+7.3017204117741000100000005.3+1.073.833SloveniaEngland
GermanyWNorway 6-0248-0-03397.7+2.398.8+1.1412518103001102.3+0.168.890at N IrelandGermany
SpainWLiechtenstein 8-0227-1-02996.6+4.798.3+2.421242421610001210003.0+0.554.876Spain
SerbiaWRepublic of Ire 1-0185-3-01092.8+28.395.7+21.70011119192418000112217.8+3.571.721Serbia
FranceTLuxembourg 0-0175-2-11073.1-15.684.9-8.600521201611002654331029.3-2.096.760France
PolandWKazakhstan 3-0196-1-1766.6+1.480.3+2.70003142016103014954310429.1+0.899.631at ArmeniaPoland
SwitzerlandWLatvia 3-0248-0-01555.1-11.477.6-5.7161714610035825.8-0.8116.843Switzerland
CroatiaLTurkey 0-1165-1-2954.3-15.165.5-14.6000412162200124564271512.8-3.2818.802Croatia
PortugalWHungary 1-0217-0-12444.9+11.472.4+5.74151672003614500007.0+1.0713.854Portugal
SwedenWBelarus 4-0165-1-21125.3+15.753.0+16.2000487602611111096441113.8+2.6812.732Sweden
MontenegroWRomania 1-0165-1-21122.6-0.738.7-0.10016863001698531162915.6+0.8630.732DenmarkMontenegro
IcelandWUkraine 2-0165-1-2422.2+16.241.3+22.10014710001479107382816.6+4.2011.620Iceland
UkraineLIceland 0-2144-2-2413.6-8.818.9-21.00003100012223247021.8-5.4215.620Ukraine
DenmarkWArmenia 4-1165-1-21110.7-0.729.9+2.30002431014997531242616.5+1.5623.732at MontenegroDenmark
TurkeyWCroatia 1-0144-2-2410.0+7.619.5+13.2000270025533346421.6+4.1321.608Turkey
WalesWMoldova 2-0143-5-076.1-4.830.0+7.600023016988152202417.5+2.535.718Wales
ItalyWIsrael 1-0196-1-1123.4-4.751.6-1.10002100001232348432100011.5+0.017.742Italy
N IrelandWCzech Republic 2-0196-1-1142.3-2.351.1+0.100011015383074210011.4+0.4017.862GermanyNorthern Ireland
NetherlandsWBulgaria 3-1134-1-351.6+1.08.4+1.300010002442157822.3+2.4826.600Netherlands
SlovakiaLEngland 1-2155-0-381.3-13.432.3-15.40001000414991313842517.3-3.0314.713at ScotlandSlovakia
Republic of IreLSerbia 0-1133-4-131.1-23.47.4-28.7000100012451007622.1-4.8320.608Republic of Ireland
SloveniaWLithuania 4-0144-2-260.3+0.16.3+3.7000000022224367822.9+2.2424.727at EnglandSlovenia
BulgariaLNetherlands 1-3124-0-4-40.1-1.10.4-3.600000000019829.4-2.9732.418Bulgaria
ScotlandWMalta 2-0144-2-240.0-0.15.4+1.4000000012223328525.4+0.5119.589SlovakiaScotland
Bosnia-HerzegovWGibraltar 4-0144-2-211Out-0.316.9+8.0016645111934419.1+2.4622.716Bosnia-Herzegovina
GreeceLBelgium 1-2133-4-16Out-3.016.1-17.20013811101554719.6-3.0110.700Greece
AlbaniaTMacedonia 1-1134-1-31Out-0.00.0-0.80000000019925.4+0.0636.525Albania
HungaryLPortugal 0-1103-1-42OutNo-0.0010027.4-1.5741.552Hungary
Czech RepublicLN Ireland 0-292-3-31OutNo-0.310029.0-2.5825.525at AzerbaijanCzech Republic
AzerbaijanWSan Marino 5-1103-1-4-4OutNo-0.0010031.7+4.5939.381Czech RepublicAzerbaijan
AustriaTGeorgia 1-192-3-30Out-0.20.0-0.80010032.0-1.7127.495Austria
RomaniaLMontenegro 0-192-3-30Out-0.0No-0.410032.7-0.7729.495KazakhstanRomania
IsraelLItaly 0-193-0-5-5OutNo-0.010033.8-0.7334.372Israel
Faroe IslandsWAndorra 1-082-2-4-11OutNo10034.4+3.0133.196Faroe Islands
CyprusLEstonia 0-1103-1-4-4Out-0.00.0-0.3000010034.6-2.7835.381Cyprus
MacedoniaTAlbania 1-172-1-5-4OutNo10037.2-0.5531.400Macedonia
EstoniaWCyprus 1-082-2-4-11OutNo010037.3+3.1628.239Estonia
NorwayLGermany 0-672-1-5-8OutNo-0.010038.4-2.2938.310at San MarinoNorway
FinlandWKosovo 1-072-1-5-4OutNo10040.2+1.9637.354Finland
ArmeniaLDenmark 1-462-0-6-11OutNo-0.010040.8-1.5049.273PolandArmenia
LithuaniaLSlovenia 0-451-2-5-12OutNo10042.7-1.0842.230at MaltaLithuania
GeorgiaTAustria 1-150-5-3-4OutNo10043.0+0.2253.381Georgia
LuxembourgTFrance 0-051-2-5-10OutNo10043.5+1.6351.268Luxembourg
LatviaLSwitzerland 0-331-0-7-15OutNo10044.4-0.8243.146Latvia
BelarusLSweden 0-451-2-5-12OutNo10045.1-1.7652.188Belarus
AndorraLFaroe Islands 0-141-1-6-15OutNo10046.1-1.5747.124Andorra
KazakhstanLPoland 0-320-2-6-18OutNo10048.3-0.0646.154at RomaniaKazakhstan
MoldovaLWales 0-220-2-6-16OutNo10049.0-0.4540.163Moldova
KosovoLFinland 0-110-1-7-17OutNo10050.6-0.9854.138Kosovo
MaltaLScotland 0-200-0-8-19OutNo10051.0+0.3245.114LithuaniaMalta
GibraltarLBosnia-Herzegov 0-400-0-8-34OutNo10051.9-0.3648.108Gibraltar
LiechtensteinLSpain 0-800-0-8-33OutNo10052.3-0.2044.090Liechtenstein
San MarinoLAzerbaijan 1-500-0-8-36OutNo10052.4-0.1650.098NorwaySan Marino

Big Games

Who should we root for?   Explain

Week of 9/2
Spain 3 Italy 0
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Direct qualify100.0*Average seed
Spain+23.4
+11.9
+2.3
Italy-23.4
-12.0
-2.2
Bulgaria 3 Sweden 2
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Direct qualify100.0*Average seed
France+16.6
+9.4
+1.0
Sweden-21.2
-21.1
-4.0
Netherlands+3.3
+5.8
Bulgaria+1.3
+3.2
+3.7
France 4 Netherlands 0
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Direct qualify100.0*Average seed
France+18.0
+14.7
+2.7
Sweden-10.0
-3.5
-0.4
Netherlands-7.7
-10.7
-2.4
Finland 1 Iceland 0
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Direct qualify100.0*Average seed
Croatia+11.4
+8.2
+1.0
Iceland-16.9
-19.8
-4.3
Ukraine+2.6
+4.5
+0.8
Turkey+2.9
+4.8
+0.9
Finland+3.0
Kosovo-0.8
Greece 0 Estonia 0
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Direct qualify100.0*Average seed
Belgium+7.5
+4.7
+0.5
Bosnia-Herzegov+1.9
+7.0
+0.7
Greece-9.4
-13.3
-2.5
Estonia*No
+1.0
Georgia 1 Republic of Ire 1
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Direct qualify100.0*Average seed
Serbia+5.6
+3.4
+0.4
Montenegro+0.5
Wales+2.1
+2.2
+0.3
Republic of Ire-8.4
-8.4
-1.4
Austria+0.7
+0.7
+0.2
GeorgiaOut
No
Slovakia 1 Slovenia 0
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Direct qualify100.0*Average seed
England-4.1
-1.9
-0.2
Slovakia+7.8
+14.0
+2.6
Slovenia-3.7
-10.4
-2.3
Serbia 3 Moldova 0
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Direct qualify100.0*Average seed
Serbia+7.1
+8.4
+1.5
Montenegro-0.6
Wales-1.8
-1.8
-0.3
Republic of Ire-4.8
-3.1
-0.4
Austria-0.6
-0.8
-0.2
Georgia+0.2
Moldova*Out
*No
-0.7
Denmark 4 Poland 0
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Direct qualify100.0*Average seed
Poland-7.1
-4.5
-1.6
Montenegro+3.7
-0.4
Denmark+3.3
+9.6
+2.8
Ukraine 2 Turkey 0
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Direct qualify100.0*Average seed
Croatia-0.4
-0.4
Iceland-0.2
Ukraine+7.0
+10.5
+3.3
Turkey-6.6
-9.8
-3.0
Czech Republic 1 Germany 2
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Direct qualify100.0*Average seed
Germany+6.9
+3.5
+1.3
N Ireland-6.9
-2.4
-0.3
Czech RepublicOut
-1.5
-1.7
Croatia 1 Kosovo 0
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Direct qualify100.0*Average seed
Croatia+6.8
+6.2
+1.3
Iceland-3.9
-2.8
-0.3
Ukraine-1.4
-1.5
-0.2
Turkey-1.4
-1.5
-0.2
Kosovo-0.5
Portugal 5 Faroe Islands 1
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Direct qualify100.0*Average seed
Switzerland-6.1
-3.1
-0.4
Portugal+6.1
+3.3
+0.8
Hungary*Out
Faroe IslandsNo
-0.7
Switzerland 3 Andorra 0
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Direct qualify100.0*Average seed
Switzerland+5.8
+2.9
+0.7
Portugal-5.8
-2.9
-0.4
Hungary*Out
Andorra*No
-0.6
Cyprus 3 Bosnia-Herzegov 2
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Direct qualify100.0*Average seed
Belgium+3.8
+3.8
+0.4
Bosnia-Herzegov-5.6
-14.2
-3.6
Greece+1.8
+8.7
+0.9
Cyprus+3.4
Malta 0 England 4
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Direct qualify100.0*Average seed
England+5.4
+3.9
+1.0
Slovakia-4.0
-2.3
-0.3
Slovenia-1.3
-1.1
LithuaniaOut
Malta-0.5
Belgium 9 Gibraltar 0
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Direct qualify100.0*Average seed
Belgium+5.2
+3.7
+0.9
Bosnia-Herzegov-1.5
-1.4
-0.2
Greece-3.7
-2.3
-0.3
Gibraltar-0.4
Wales 1 Austria 0
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Direct qualify100.0*Average seed
Serbia-1.5
-1.1
-0.2
Wales+4.5
+7.5
+2.8
Republic of Ire-0.7
-1.1
-0.2
Austria-2.3
-4.2
-2.3
San Marino 0 N Ireland 3
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Direct qualify100.0*Average seed
Germany-2.6
-1.3
-0.2
N Ireland+2.6
+3.2
+0.8
Czech Republic-0.7
Moldova*Out
*No
San Marino-0.4
Kazakhstan 0 Montenegro 3
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Direct qualify100.0*Average seed
Serbia-0.7
Poland-2.3
-1.3
-0.2
Montenegro+2.6
+7.7
+1.7
Denmark-1.6
-0.4
Republic of Ire-0.7
Kazakhstan-1.0
Lithuania 0 Scotland 3
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Direct qualify100.0*Average seed
Scotland+1.9
+3.3
Lithuania*Out
No
-2.4
Luxembourg 1 Belarus 0
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Direct qualify100.0*Average seed
Luxembourg+2.1
BelarusOut
No
-2.0
Israel 0 Macedonia 1
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Direct qualify100.0*Average seed
Israel-4.3
Macedonia+4.1
Romania 1 Armenia 0
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Direct qualify100.0*Average seed
Romania+2.1
ArmeniaOut
-1.7
Albania 2 Liechtenstein 0
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Direct qualify100.0*Average seed
Albania+1.3
Israel-0.4
Liechtenstein-0.5
Norway 2 Azerbaijan 0
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Direct qualify100.0*Average seed
Azerbaijan*Out
-1.7
Norway+1.9
Hungary 3 Latvia 1
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Direct qualify100.0*Average seed
Hungary+1.0
Latvia-1.0

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Thank you Markus Paminger for adding this league.