Chance that each team will qualify for the 2010-2011 UEFA tournaments.

NOTE: I still need to merge the Intertoto Cup into the UEFA Cup (and rename it the UEFA Europa League) for 2009-2010 and 2010-2011.

Assumtions:

  • When I simulate a country’s cup winner (or winners, in the case of England and France), I assume that only teams from the country’s top league will win, and that each of those teams have an equal chance of winning.
  • I don’t account for the automatic spot defending champions get in the Champions League and UEFA Cup, so even if your team shows 0% chance they could still get in if they win the tournament this year or if they where next in line to go and a team ahead of them in their league won.
  • All 53 leagues have an equal chance at earning one of the three Fair Play UEFA Cup slots. I don’t account for Norway and Sweden’s fair play dominance.
  • Every league and team registers for and has not been banned from the tournaments.
  • Finally, this all still builds on the same 50/50 or Weighted logic as the rest of the site.

But other than all that :), I think this list covers all the rules for tournament entry.

The change columns show the change since last week. A team’s combined odds of getting into the 3 tournaments can exceed 100% because some of the Champions League losers and the Intertoto Cup winners get to also play in the UEFA Cup.

Champions LeagueUEFA CupIntertoto Cup
CountryPW-D-LGD%Change%Change%Change
BarcelonaSpain9931-6-174YesNoNo
ChelseaEngland8627-5-671YesNoNo
Real MadridSpain9631-3-467YesNoNo
BenficaPortugal7624-4-258YesNoNo
Man. UnitedEngland8527-4-758YesNoNo
RangersScotland7623-7-251YesNoNo
AnderlechtBelgium6922-3-342YesNoNo
Bayern MünchenGermany7020-10-441YesNoNo
Inter MilanItaly8224-10-441YesNoNo
Rubin KazanRussia6319-6-541YesNoNo
TwenteNetherlands8627-5-240YesNoNo
BursasporTurkey7523-6-539YesNoNo
PanathinaikosGreece7022-4-437YesNoNo
MarseilleFrance7823-9-633YesNoNo
SpartakRussia5517-4-928YesNoNo
AS RomaItaly8024-8-627YesNoNo
LyonFrance7220-12-626YesNoNo
SchalkeGermany6519-8-722YesNoNo
AjaxNetherlands8527-4-386Yes50.0%No
ArsenalEngland7523-6-942Yes50.0No
Werder BremenGermany6117-10-731Yes50.0No
TottenhamEngland7021-7-1026Yes50.0No
AC MilanItaly7020-10-821Yes50.0No
ZenitRussia5415-9-621Yes50.0No
ValenciaSpain7121-8-919Yes50.0No
SevillaSpain6319-6-1316Yes50.0No
AuxerreFrance7120-11-713Yes50.0No
SampdoriaItaly6719-10-98Yes50.0No
SalzburgAustria7622-10-441Yes25.0No
CopenhagenDenmark6821-5-739Yes25.0No
FenerbahçeTurkey7423-5-633Yes25.0No
OlympiakosGreece6419-7-429Yes25.0No
BragaPortugal7122-5-328Yes25.0No
Club BruggeBelgium5717-6-519Yes25.0No
CelticScotland6319-6-72693.7%29.7No
Dundee UtdScotland5816-10-6126.394.70.8%
PSV EindhovenNetherlands7823-9-243NoYesNo
LilleFrance7021-7-1032NoYesNo
AZ AlkmaarNetherlands6219-5-1030NoYesNo
Man. CityEngland6718-13-728NoYesNo
LeverkusenGermany5915-14-527NoYesNo
FeyenoordNetherlands6116-13-522NoYesNo
CSKARussia5216-4-1018NoYesNo
MallorcaSpain6218-8-1215NoYesNo
Aston VillaEngland6417-13-813NoYesNo
LokomotivRussia5415-9-613NoYesNo
PalermoItaly6518-11-912NoYesNo
MontpellierFrance6920-9-910NoYesNo
NapoliItaly5915-14-97NoYesNo
FC PortoPortugal6821-5-444NoYesNo
GalatasarayTurkey6419-7-826NoYesNo
PAOKGreece6219-5-625NoYesNo
GentBelgium4914-7-718NoYesNo
Odense BKDenmark5917-8-810NoYesNo
Rapid WienAustria7321-10-542NoYesNo
Austria WienAustria7523-6-726NoYesNo
BrøndbyDenmark5215-7-117NoYesNo
VillarrealSpain5616-8-141No72.464.7
VfB StuttgartGermany5515-10-910No72.066.4
MoscowRussia4813-9-811No68.962.1
LiverpoolEngland6318-9-1126No67.664.7
JuventusItaly5516-7-15-1No67.664.7
HeraclesNetherlands5617-5-125No66.866.4
BordeauxFrance6419-7-1218No65.169.7
Sturm GrazAustria5816-10-1014No55.459.4
EsbjergDenmark5013-11-95No50.466.2
Sporting LisbonPortugal5114-9-718No44.074.6
AEK AthensGreece5315-8-712No44.074.6
KortrijkBelgium4512-9-79No44.074.6
BeşiktaşTurkey6418-10-622No41.977.5
GetafeSpain5817-7-1410No33.8No
BVBGermany5716-9-912No32.1No
MotherwellScotland4812-12-82No31.742.7
HibernianScotland5014-8-114No29.538.8
Hamburger SVGermany5213-13-815No28.033.5
Athletic BilbaoSpain5415-9-14-3No27.735.1
SaturnRussia4513-6-11-3No25.637.6
EvertonEngland6116-13-911No23.035.1
ParmaItaly5214-10-14-5No23.035.1
FC UtrechtNetherlands5314-11-96No22.733.5
SC MagnaAustria4713-8-15-4No20.940.1
LorientFrance5816-10-1212No20.530.1
AaBDenmark4813-9-116No17.433.5
HeartsScotland4412-8-13-7No16.217.8
Aris FCGreece4612-10-79No13.025.2
GuimaraesPortugal4111-8-11-3No13.025.2
St. TruidenBelgium4212-6-101No13.025.2
TrabzonsporTurkey5716-9-921No11.522.4
VfL WolfsburgGermany5014-8-126No11.30.2
HoffenheimGermany4211-9-142No11.2No
MainzGermany4712-11-11-6No11.2No
EintrachtGermany4612-10-12-7No11.2No
FC KölnGermany389-11-14-9No11.2No
VfL BorussiaGermany3910-9-15-17No11.2No
Hertha BerlinGermany245-9-20-22No11.2No
Hannover 96Germany339-6-19-24No11.2No
SC FreiburgGermany359-8-17-24No11.2No
NürnbergGermany318-7-19-26No11.2No
VfL BochumGermany286-10-18-31No11.2No
MattersburgAustria4112-5-19-26No11.00.5
RiedAustria3810-8-18-8No10.8No
LinzAustria409-13-14-11No10.8No
KapfenbergAustria338-9-19-23No10.8No
Austria KärntenAustria152-9-25-51No10.8No
Atlético MadridSpain4713-8-17-4No10.20.2
MálagaSpain377-16-15-6No10.1No
OsasunaSpain4311-10-17-9No10.1No
AlmeríaSpain4210-12-16-12No10.1No
DeportivoSpain4713-8-17-14No10.1No
Sporting de GijónSpain409-13-16-15No10.1No
EspanyolSpain4411-11-16-17No10.1No
RacingSpain399-12-17-17No10.1No
Real ZaragozaSpain4110-11-17-18No10.1No
ValladolidSpain367-15-16-25No10.1No
XerezSpain348-10-20-28No10.1No
TenerifeSpain369-9-20-34No10.1No
MidtjyllandDenmark4714-5-14-3No9.10.3
St. JohnstoneScotland3810-8-14-6No9.0No
AberdeenScotland348-10-14-13No9.0No
St. MirrenScotland286-10-17-13No9.0No
HamiltonScotland369-9-15-14No9.0No
KilmarnockScotland297-8-18-18No9.0No
FalkirkScotland286-10-17-24No9.0No
NordsjællandDenmark4312-7-14-1No9.0No
Silkeborg IFDenmark4312-7-14-4No9.0No
SønderjyskEDenmark4111-8-14-5No9.0No
Randers FCDenmark4010-10-13-6No9.0No
AGF AarhusDenmark3810-8-15-9No9.0No
KøgeDenmark194-7-22-39No9.0No
DynamoRussia4212-6-12-6No6.90.2
Spartak NalchikRussia358-11-113No6.8No
Tom' TomskRussia4111-8-11-8No6.8No
Amkar PermRussia338-9-13-10No6.8No
Krylya SovetovRussia3610-6-14-10No6.8No
RostovRussia327-11-12-11No6.8No
Terek GroznyRussia339-6-15-15No6.8No
KubanRussia286-10-14-28No6.8No
KhimkiRussia102-4-24-44No6.8No
KavalaGreece3910-9-11-1No6.70.1
CD NacionalPortugal3910-9-11-10No6.70.1
Zulte WaregemBelgium4110-11-77No6.70.1
PanioniosGreece379-10-11-1No6.7No
AtromitosGreece3810-8-12-2No6.7No
IraklisGreece3710-7-13-2No6.7No
MaritimoPortugal3810-8-12-3No6.7No
ErgotelisGreece369-9-12-4No6.7No
AcadémicaPortugal338-9-13-5No6.7No
Paços FerreiraPortugal358-11-11-5No6.7No
UD LeiriaPortugal359-8-13-6No6.7No
AsterasGreece3610-6-14-7No6.7No
Skoda XanthiGreece3510-5-15-9No6.7No
AE LarissaGreece3710-7-13-11No6.7No
Rio AvePortugal316-13-11-11No6.7No
LevadiakosGreece349-7-14-13No6.7No
Naval 1º de MaioPortugal3610-6-14-15No6.7No
OlhanensePortugal295-14-11-15No6.7No
GianninaGreece287-7-16-19No6.7No
BelenensesPortugal234-11-15-21No6.7No
LeixoesPortugal215-6-19-26No6.7No
Vitoria SetubalPortugal255-10-15-28No6.7No
PanthrakikosGreece92-3-24-43No6.7No
Cercle BruggeBelgium3811-5-125No6.7No
Standard LiègeBelgium3910-9-94No6.7No
GenkBelgium348-10-102No6.7No
MouscronBelgium00-0-00No6.7No
WesterloBelgium328-8-12-6No6.7No
MechelenBelgium3912-3-13-10No6.7No
GerminalBelgium359-8-11-13No6.7No
CharleroiBelgium235-8-15-17No6.7No
RoeselareBelgium184-6-18-29No6.7No
LokerenBelgium185-3-20-32No6.7No
FC GroningenNetherlands4914-7-131No6.10.2
Roda JCNetherlands4714-5-15-4No6.0No
NAC BredaNetherlands4512-9-13-8No6.0No
VenloNetherlands358-11-15-14No6.0No
HeerenveenNetherlands3711-4-19-20No6.0No
Den HaagNetherlands307-9-18-21No6.0No
Vitesse ArnhemNetherlands359-8-17-22No6.0No
NEC NijmegenNetherlands338-9-17-24No6.0No
Willem IINetherlands237-2-25-34No6.0No
SpartaNetherlands266-8-20-36No6.0No
WaalwijkNetherlands155-0-29-50No6.0No
IstanbulTurkey5616-8-103No6.00.1
AntalyasporTurkey4914-7-1311No5.9No
EskişehirsporTurkey5515-10-910No5.9No
KayserisporTurkey5114-9-118No5.9No
GençlerbirliğiTurkey4712-11-113No5.9No
AnkaragücüTurkey419-14-11-1No5.9No
GaziantepsporTurkey409-13-12-1No5.9No
KasımpaşaTurkey4110-11-13-3No5.9No
ManisasporTurkey378-13-13-7No5.9No
SivassporTurkey348-10-16-17No5.9No
DenizlisporTurkey266-8-20-19No5.9No
DiyarbakırsporTurkey276-9-19-26No5.9No
AnkarasporTurkey00-0-34-102No5.9No
GenoaItaly5114-9-15-4No5.50.2
BirminghamEngland5013-11-14-9No5.50.2
MonacoFrance5515-10-13-6No5.50.1
FiorentinaItaly4713-8-171No5.4No
BariItaly5013-11-140No5.4No
Calcio CataniaItaly4510-15-13-1No5.4No
Cagliari CalcioItaly4411-11-16-2No5.4No
LazioItaly4611-13-14-4No5.4No
Chievo VeronaItaly4412-8-18-5No5.4No
UdineseItaly4411-11-16-5No5.4No
FulhamEngland4612-10-16-7No5.4No
SunderlandEngland4411-11-16-8No5.4No
BolognaItaly4210-12-16-13No5.4No
BlackburnEngland5013-11-14-14No5.4No
Stoke CityEngland4711-14-13-14No5.4No
Atalanta BCItaly359-8-21-16No5.4No
West HamEngland358-11-19-19No5.4No
WolvesEngland389-11-18-24No5.4No
BoltonEngland3910-9-19-25No5.4No
AC SienaItaly317-10-21-27No5.4No
PortsmouthEngland197-7-24-32No5.4No
LivornoItaly297-8-23-34No5.4No
BurnleyEngland308-6-24-40No5.4No
HullEngland306-12-20-41No5.4No
WiganEngland369-9-20-42No5.4No
RennesFrance5314-11-1311No5.4No
PSGFrance4712-11-154No5.4No
ToulouseFrance4712-11-150No5.4No
ValenciennesFrance5214-10-140No5.4No
LensFrance4812-12-14-4No5.4No
NancyFrance4813-9-16-7No5.4No
NiceFrance4411-11-16-16No5.4No
Saint-ÉtienneFrance4010-10-18-18No5.4No
Le Mans UC72France328-8-22-23No5.4No
SochauxFrance4111-8-19-24No5.4No
GrenobleFrance235-8-25-30No5.4No
BoulogneFrance317-10-21-31No5.4No
232 teams14 countries3,500.0005,079.2451,400.000

I sum up the odds at the bottom as a sanity check.

I expect to see:

  • Champions League: The leagues I cover send 35 teams, so 3,500.000
  • UEFA Cup: The leagues I cover send 38 teams directly, plus (on average) 7 losers from the Champions League, 5.25 winners from the the Intertoto Cup, and .79245 Fair Play teams. That sums up to 5,104.245
  • Intertoto Cup: Each of the 14 leagues I cover send 1 team, so 1,400.000