UEFA 2010-2011 Tournament Qualification Odds

Chance that each team will qualify for the 2010-2011 UEFA tournaments.

NOTE: I still need to merge the Intertoto Cup into the UEFA Cup (and rename it the UEFA Europa League) for 2009-2010 and 2010-2011.

Assumtions:

When I simulate a country’s cup winner (or winners, in the case of England and France), I assume that only teams from the country’s top league will win, and that each of those teams have an equal chance of winning.
I don’t account for the automatic spot defending champions get in the Champions League and UEFA Cup, so even if your team shows 0% chance they could still get in if they win the tournament this year or if they where next in line to go and a team ahead of them in their league won.
All 53 leagues have an equal chance at earning one of the three Fair Play UEFA Cup slots. I don’t account for Norway and Sweden’s fair play dominance.
Every league and team registers for and has not been banned from the tournaments.
Finally, this all still builds on the same 50/50 or Weighted logic as the rest of the site.

But other than all that :), I think this list covers all the rules for tournament entry.

The change columns show the change since last week. A team’s combined odds of getting into the 3 tournaments can exceed 100% because some of the Champions League losers and the Intertoto Cup winners get to also play in the UEFA Cup.

									Champions League			UEFA Cup			Intertoto Cup
	Country	P	W	-	D	-	L	GD	%	Change		%	Change		%	Change

Rubin Kazan	Russia	63	19	-	6	-	5	41	In			Out			Out
Anderlecht	Belgium	63	20	-	3	-	3	36	In			Out			Out
Spartak	Russia	55	17	-	4	-	9	28	In			Out			Out
Zenit	Russia	54	15	-	9	-	6	21	In			50.0	%		Out
Club Brugge	Belgium	51	15	-	6	-	5	15	In			25.0			Out
Rangers	Scotland	67	20	-	7	-	1	48	100.0	%	0.0	0.0		-0.0	Out		-0.0
Real Madrid	Spain	65	21	-	2	-	3	50	100.0			0.0			0.0	%
Barcelona	Spain	65	20	-	5	-	1	48	100.0			0.0			0.0
Inter Milan	Italy	59	17	-	8	-	3	28	100.0			3.6			0.0
Man. United	England	66	21	-	3	-	6	46	99.9		-0.0	9.7		0.0	0.0		0.0
AC Milan	Italy	58	17	-	7	-	4	21	99.9			6.7			0.0
Chelsea	England	64	20	-	4	-	5	42	99.8		-0.0	15.5		0.1	0.0		0.0
Benfica	Portugal	58	18	-	4	-	1	48	99.7			4.5			0.0
Arsenal	England	64	20	-	4	-	6	38	99.7		-0.0	25.4		0.0	0.0		0.0
Bayern München	Germany	56	16	-	8	-	2	31	99.3			9.0			0.0
Panathinaikos	Greece	61	19	-	4	-	3	32	98.1			3.8			Out
AS Roma	Italy	53	15	-	8	-	5	16	97.9			40.9			0.1
Schalke	Germany	54	16	-	6	-	4	22	95.0			24.1			0.1
Braga	Portugal	55	17	-	4	-	2	20	94.9			24.6			0.0
Leverkusen	Germany	53	14	-	11	-	1	31	94.6			22.1			0.0
Bursaspor	Turkey	58	18	-	4	-	4	33	93.2		6.7	10.3		-6.4	1.0		-1.7
Twente	Netherlands	70	22	-	4	-	1	30	85.5			27.7			Out
Valencia	Spain	47	13	-	8	-	5	13	84.3			54.3			1.1
Copenhagen	Denmark	43	13	-	4	-	3	27	83.9			36.8			0.3
Salzburg	Austria	52	15	-	7	-	2	26	82.1			38.1			0.4
Bordeaux	France	53	16	-	5	-	6	21	81.8			23.4			2.2
Celtic	Scotland	54	16	-	6	-	6	24	80.9		-0.1	35.1		0.0	3.9		0.0
PAOK	Greece	56	17	-	5	-	4	23	80.6			37.7			0.0
Ajax	Netherlands	64	20	-	4	-	3	62	71.0			52.0			Out
Marseille	France	50	14	-	8	-	5	19	69.0			36.3			4.5
Galatasaray	Turkey	53	16	-	5	-	4	25	53.3		-2.0	43.8		2.8	12.9		0.3
Sevilla	Spain	44	13	-	5	-	8	10	51.8			59.0			5.8
Montpellier	France	53	16	-	5	-	7	9	47.7			52.9			9.1
PSV Eindhoven	Netherlands	65	20	-	5	-	2	38	43.5			70.2			Out
Palermo	Italy	46	13	-	7	-	8	6	42.6			64.6			7.7
Auxerre	France	52	15	-	7	-	6	5	36.8			57.1			12.8
Tottenham	England	52	15	-	7	-	7	25	33.8		-3.3	76.4		1.1	10.2		1.0
Mallorca	Spain	43	13	-	4	-	9	10	33.1			59.2			9.9
Lille	France	51	15	-	6	-	7	23	32.2			58.3			15.0
Aston Villa	England	49	13	-	10	-	5	17	30.8		6.9	76.1		0.5	11.8		-4.0
Beşiktaş	Turkey	51	15	-	6	-	4	19	30.5		-2.7	52.5		2.4	21.8		0.5
Lyon	France	51	14	-	9	-	5	17	29.9			59.4			16.2
Man. City	England	50	13	-	11	-	4	17	24.6		-2.0	74.4		0.2	16.5		1.3
Fenerbahçe	Turkey	52	16	-	4	-	6	22	21.8		-1.9	48.3		1.2	29.5		0.7
Olympiakos	Greece	54	16	-	6	-	4	25	21.3			83.4			0.2
Juventus	Italy	45	13	-	6	-	9	6	20.5			63.1			12.4
Sampdoria	Italy	44	12	-	8	-	8	1	18.5			58.1			13.2
Deportivo	Spain	42	12	-	6	-	8	2	15.5			51.9			17.1
Rapid Wien	Austria	46	13	-	7	-	4	25	12.3			86.5			5.6
Odense BK	Denmark	40	11	-	7	-	2	12	11.6			84.5			7.6
Athletic Bilbao	Spain	41	12	-	5	-	9	4	11.4			49.9			19.0
Liverpool	England	51	15	-	6	-	9	19	11.2		-1.4	77.6		-0.4	22.7		1.9
Hibernian	Scotland	47	13	-	8	-	7	9	9.5		0.0	55.4		-0.2	27.3		-0.2
Genoa	Italy	42	12	-	6	-	10	3	7.7			44.0			14.6
BVB	Germany	45	13	-	6	-	7	10	6.5			66.5			13.7
Dundee Utd	Scotland	48	13	-	9	-	6	6	6.0		0.1	53.9		-0.2	29.4		-0.3
Napoli	Italy	41	10	-	11	-	7	2	5.9			41.8			14.3
FC Porto	Portugal	47	14	-	5	-	4	26	5.3			95.2			1.1
Sturm Graz	Austria	43	12	-	7	-	5	18	3.6			79.9			22.0
Motherwell	Scotland	48	12	-	12	-	6	6	3.5		0.0	44.4		-0.2	33.0		-0.4
Esbjerg	Denmark	37	10	-	7	-	3	11	2.9			76.6			21.3
Cagliari Calcio	Italy	39	11	-	6	-	11	5	2.7			26.7			10.6
Bari	Italy	38	10	-	8	-	10	0	2.7			26.4			10.2
Hamburger SV	Germany	43	11	-	10	-	5	16	2.5			60.0			21.7
Getafe	Spain	36	11	-	3	-	12	2	2.2			28.9			15.5
Werder Bremen	Germany	42	11	-	9	-	6	20	2.1			60.0			23.6
Austria Wien	Austria	43	13	-	4	-	7	11	1.9			73.5			30.3
Silkeborg IF	Denmark	35	10	-	5	-	5	14	1.6			66.5			30.5
Lorient	France	43	12	-	7	-	9	11	1.2			21.3			13.6
Fiorentina	Italy	38	11	-	5	-	12	2	1.1			20.6			9.0
Rennes	France	43	12	-	7	-	9	11	1.1			22.8			15.7
Villarreal	Spain	36	10	-	6	-	10	1	1.0			23.1			12.4
Atlético Madrid	Spain	34	9	-	7	-	10	1	0.6			19.1			8.8
Trabzonspor	Turkey	46	13	-	7	-	6	20	0.4		-0.1	12.1		-0.1	12.2		-0.1
Kayserispor	Turkey	43	12	-	7	-	6	16	0.4		-0.1	11.8		-0.1	11.7		-0.0
Eskişehirspor	Turkey	45	12	-	9	-	5	11	0.3		-0.0	11.2		0.2	10.1		0.3
Everton	England	44	12	-	8	-	9	5	0.3		-0.1	26.7		-1.0	26.1		-0.0
Chievo Verona	Italy	35	10	-	5	-	13	-2	0.2			9.5			3.0
Monaco	France	43	13	-	4	-	11	-1	0.2			10.1			4.9
Parma	Italy	37	10	-	7	-	11	-8	0.2			9.1			2.8
Almería	Spain	33	8	-	9	-	9	-5	0.1			14.0			4.4
St. Johnstone	Scotland	34	9	-	7	-	11	-4	0.1		0.0	11.2		0.8	3.4		1.2
Bologna	Italy	35	9	-	8	-	11	-5	0.1			7.2			1.5
Sporting de Gijón	Spain	32	8	-	8	-	10	-4	0.1			12.7			3.1
Valenciennes	France	41	12	-	5	-	11	0	0.1			7.2			2.1
Birmingham	England	43	12	-	7	-	10	-2	0.0		-0.0	12.1		-0.3	9.1		-0.1
Osasuna	Spain	31	8	-	7	-	11	-3	0.0			12.2			2.5
Toulouse	France	38	10	-	8	-	10	6	0.0			7.0			2.0
AaB	Denmark	28	8	-	4	-	8	4	0.0			17.3			15.6
Hearts	Scotland	37	10	-	7	-	12	-6	0.0		-0.0	10.7		-0.1	3.0		-0.2
Brøndby	Denmark	28	8	-	4	-	8	1	0.0			16.6			15.7
PSG	France	37	10	-	7	-	11	7	0.0			6.7			1.6
AGF Aarhus	Denmark	27	7	-	6	-	7	-5	0.0			10.7			4.4
Calcio Catania	Italy	31	7	-	10	-	11	-2	0.0			5.8			0.4
Mainz	Germany	38	10	-	8	-	8	-3	0.0			20.8			12.9
Espanyol	Spain	28	7	-	7	-	12	-17	0.0			10.2			0.0
VfL Wolfsburg	Germany	37	10	-	7	-	9	3	0.0			23.3			15.9
Sochaux	France	35	10	-	5	-	12	-12	0.0			5.4			0.1
Málaga	Spain	27	6	-	9	-	11	-3	0.0			10.3			0.3
Istanbul	Turkey	40	11	-	7	-	7	0	0.0		-0.0	6.2		-0.0	0.8		-0.0
Udinese	Italy	31	8	-	7	-	13	-6	0.0			5.8			0.4
Racing	Spain	27	6	-	9	-	11	-13	0.0			10.2			0.1
Nordsjælland	Denmark	24	7	-	3	-	10	-4	0.0			9.4			1.2
SønderjyskE	Denmark	24	6	-	6	-	8	-3	0.0			9.6			1.6
Real Zaragoza	Spain	26	6	-	8	-	12	-18	0.0			10.2			0.0
Midtjylland	Denmark	25	7	-	4	-	9	-7	0.0			9.7			1.8
Mattersburg	Austria	30	9	-	3	-	12	-12	0.0			12.2			4.8
Ried	Austria	31	8	-	7	-	9	5	0.0			18.4			23.4
AEK Athens	Greece	45	13	-	6	-	7	9	0.0			34.1			58.6
SC Magna	Austria	30	8	-	6	-	10	-3	0.0			14.3			12.0
Nancy	France	35	10	-	5	-	13	-9	0.0			5.4			0.0
Fulham	England	38	10	-	8	-	11	0	0.0		-0.0	7.4		-0.0	3.3		-0.0
VfB Stuttgart	Germany	35	9	-	8	-	9	2	0.0			15.7			7.0
Sporting Lisbon	Portugal	38	10	-	8	-	5	13	0.0			41.4			67.8
Tenerife	Spain	23	6	-	5	-	15	-28	0.0			10.1			0.0
Feyenoord	Netherlands	51	14	-	9	-	4	17	0.0			99.5			0.8
Eintracht	Germany	35	9	-	8	-	9	-5	0.0			13.3			3.3
Aris FC	Greece	42	11	-	9	-	5	10	0.0			22.6			39.6
Lens	France	34	9	-	7	-	12	-6	0.0			5.4			0.0
Stoke City	England	36	8	-	12	-	9	-5	0.0		-0.0	5.6		-0.0	0.3		-0.0
Valladolid	Spain	20	3	-	11	-	12	-20	0.0			10.1			0.0
Blackburn	England	34	9	-	7	-	13	-17	0.0		0.0	5.4		-0.0	0.0		-0.0
Lazio	Italy	26	5	-	11	-	12	-10	0.0			5.4			0.0
CSKA	Russia	52	16	-	4	-	10	18	Out			In			Out
Lokomotiv	Russia	54	15	-	9	-	6	13	Out			In			Out
AZ Alkmaar	Netherlands	45	14	-	3	-	10	22	Out			81.0			19.2
Gent	Belgium	43	12	-	7	-	7	15	Out			77.2			20.3
Moscow	Russia	48	13	-	9	-	8	11	Out			68.9			62.1
Heracles	Netherlands	43	13	-	4	-	10	0	Out			51.2			34.8
FC Utrecht	Netherlands	42	11	-	9	-	7	2	Out			49.2			33.5
Kortrijk	Belgium	41	11	-	8	-	7	7	Out			44.3			38.2
Zulte Waregem	Belgium	40	10	-	10	-	6	8	Out			27.0			25.5
Saturn	Russia	45	13	-	6	-	11	-3	Out			25.6			37.6
FC Groningen	Netherlands	39	11	-	6	-	10	2	Out			12.9			9.2
Hoffenheim	Germany	32	9	-	5	-	12	3	Out			12.3			1.8
St. Truiden	Belgium	39	11	-	6	-	9	1	Out			11.4			9.6
VfL Borussia	Germany	30	8	-	6	-	12	-12	Out			11.3			0.1
FC Köln	Germany	27	6	-	9	-	11	-11	Out			11.2			0.0
VfL Bochum	Germany	27	6	-	9	-	11	-19	Out			11.2			0.0
Nürnberg	Germany	24	6	-	6	-	14	-19	Out			11.2			0.0
Hannover 96	Germany	23	6	-	5	-	15	-19	Out			11.2			0.0
SC Freiburg	Germany	20	5	-	5	-	16	-25	Out			11.2			0.0
Hertha Berlin	Germany	15	3	-	6	-	17	-25	Out			11.2			Out
Linz	Austria	25	6	-	7	-	11	-13	Out			11.2			1.3
Kapfenberg	Austria	23	6	-	5	-	13	-16	Out			10.9			0.1
Austria Kärnten	Austria	8	1	-	5	-	18	-41	Out			10.8			0.0
Standard Liège	Belgium	38	10	-	8	-	8	6	Out			10.6			6.4
Guimaraes	Portugal	33	9	-	6	-	8	-1	Out			10.5			12.0
Paços Ferreira	Portugal	32	8	-	8	-	7	1	Out			10.4			11.9
Xerez	Spain	15	3	-	6	-	17	-30	Out			10.1			0.0
Aberdeen	Scotland	30	7	-	9	-	12	-10	Out		-0.0	9.0		-0.1	0.0		-0.2
Randers FC	Denmark	10	1	-	7	-	12	-20	Out			9.0			0.0
Køge	Denmark	8	1	-	5	-	14	-30	Out			9.0			0.0
Hamilton	Scotland	26	6	-	8	-	14	-18	Out			9.0		0.0	0.0		-0.0
Kilmarnock	Scotland	26	6	-	8	-	15	-16	Out			9.0		-0.0	0.0		-0.0
St. Mirren	Scotland	24	5	-	9	-	15	-15	Out			9.0		-0.0	0.0		-0.0
Falkirk	Scotland	20	4	-	8	-	16	-24	Out			9.0			0.0
UD Leiria	Portugal	30	8	-	6	-	9	2	Out			8.1			4.3
NAC Breda	Netherlands	37	10	-	7	-	10	-6	Out			7.6			2.4
Kavala	Greece	37	10	-	7	-	9	2	Out			7.0			1.2
CD Nacional	Portugal	29	8	-	5	-	10	-12	Out			7.0			1.2
Rio Ave	Portugal	28	6	-	10	-	7	0	Out			7.0			1.0
Dynamo	Russia	42	12	-	6	-	12	-6	Out			6.9			0.2
Maritimo	Portugal	27	7	-	6	-	10	-3	Out			6.8			0.4
Naval 1º de Maio	Portugal	29	8	-	5	-	10	-10	Out			6.8			0.3
Spartak Nalchik	Russia	35	8	-	11	-	11	3	Out			6.8			Out
Tom' Tomsk	Russia	41	11	-	8	-	11	-8	Out			6.8			Out
Amkar Perm	Russia	33	8	-	9	-	13	-10	Out			6.8			Out
Krylya Sovetov	Russia	36	10	-	6	-	14	-10	Out			6.8			Out
Rostov	Russia	32	7	-	11	-	12	-11	Out			6.8			Out
Terek Grozny	Russia	33	9	-	6	-	15	-15	Out			6.8			Out
Kuban	Russia	28	6	-	10	-	14	-28	Out			6.8			Out
Khimki	Russia	10	2	-	4	-	24	-44	Out			6.8			Out
Panionios	Greece	34	9	-	7	-	10	2	Out			6.7			0.2
Atromitos	Greece	35	9	-	8	-	9	1	Out			6.7			0.2
Cercle Brugge	Belgium	35	10	-	5	-	11	4	Out			6.7			0.1
Académica	Portugal	24	6	-	6	-	11	-6	Out			6.7			0.1
Germinal	Belgium	35	9	-	8	-	9	-8	Out			6.7			0.0
Iraklis	Greece	31	8	-	7	-	11	-2	Out			6.7			0.0
Olhanense	Portugal	20	3	-	11	-	9	-14	Out			6.7			0.0
Asteras	Greece	30	8	-	6	-	12	-6	Out			6.7			0.0
Ergotelis	Greece	30	7	-	9	-	10	-3	Out			6.7			0.0
AE Larissa	Greece	30	8	-	6	-	12	-14	Out			6.7			0.0
Vitoria Setubal	Portugal	20	4	-	8	-	11	-22	Out			6.7			0.0
Genk	Belgium	33	8	-	9	-	9	4	Out			6.7			0.0
Mechelen	Belgium	36	11	-	3	-	13	-11	Out			6.7			0.0
Levadiakos	Greece	27	7	-	6	-	13	-15	Out			6.7			0.0
Skoda Xanthi	Greece	25	7	-	4	-	15	-14	Out			6.7			Out
Giannina	Greece	25	6	-	7	-	13	-15	Out			6.7			Out
Belenenses	Portugal	14	2	-	8	-	13	-20	Out			6.7			Out
Leixoes	Portugal	15	3	-	6	-	14	-22	Out			6.7			Out
Panthrakikos	Greece	9	2	-	3	-	20	-35	Out			6.7			Out
Mouscron	Belgium	0	0	-	0	-	0	0	Out			6.7			Out
Westerlo	Belgium	28	7	-	7	-	12	-7	Out			6.7			Out
Charleroi	Belgium	23	5	-	8	-	14	-16	Out			6.7			Out
Lokeren	Belgium	18	5	-	3	-	18	-26	Out			6.7			Out
Roeselare	Belgium	17	4	-	5	-	17	-28	Out			6.7			Out
Roda JC	Netherlands	32	9	-	5	-	13	-14	Out			6.1			0.2
Heerenveen	Netherlands	29	9	-	2	-	16	-18	Out			6.0			0.0
NEC Nijmegen	Netherlands	28	7	-	7	-	13	-15	Out			6.0			0.0
Venlo	Netherlands	28	6	-	10	-	11	-4	Out			6.0			0.0
Sparta	Netherlands	25	6	-	7	-	14	-21	Out			6.0			0.0
Vitesse Arnhem	Netherlands	24	6	-	6	-	15	-21	Out			6.0			0.0
Willem II	Netherlands	23	7	-	2	-	18	-19	Out			6.0			0.0
Den Haag	Netherlands	23	5	-	8	-	14	-20	Out			6.0			0.0
Waalwijk	Netherlands	12	4	-	0	-	23	-35	Out			6.0			Out
Antalyaspor	Turkey	33	9	-	6	-	10	6	Out			5.9		-0.0	0.0		-0.0
Gaziantepspor	Turkey	33	8	-	9	-	8	2	Out			5.9		-0.0	0.0		-0.0
Gençlerbirliği	Turkey	32	8	-	8	-	9	1	Out			5.9		-0.0	0.0		-0.0
Kasımpaşa	Turkey	31	8	-	7	-	10	-1	Out			5.9		-0.0	0.0		-0.0
Ankaragücü	Turkey	29	6	-	11	-	9	-2	Out			5.9		-0.0	0.0		-0.0
Sivasspor	Turkey	27	8	-	3	-	15	-15	Out			5.9		0.0	0.0		0.0
Diyarbakırspor	Turkey	24	5	-	9	-	11	-12	Out			5.9		-0.0	0.0		-0.0
Manisaspor	Turkey	27	6	-	9	-	11	-6	Out			5.9		0.0	0.0		0.0
Denizlispor	Turkey	17	4	-	5	-	16	-17	Out			5.9			Out
Ankaraspor	Turkey	0	0	-	0	-	34	-102	Out			5.9			Out
Sunderland	England	31	7	-	10	-	12	-8	Out			5.4		-0.0	0.0		-0.0
Bolton	England	32	8	-	8	-	14	-18	Out			5.4		-0.0	0.0		0.0
Livorno	Italy	24	6	-	6	-	16	-20	Out			5.4			0.0
West Ham	England	27	6	-	9	-	14	-12	Out			5.4		0.0	0.0		0.0
Wolves	England	27	7	-	6	-	16	-24	Out			5.4		-0.0	0.0		-0.0
AC Siena	Italy	22	5	-	7	-	16	-20	Out			5.4			0.0
Atalanta BC	Italy	22	5	-	7	-	16	-17	Out			5.4			0.0
Hull	England	24	5	-	9	-	15	-34	Out			5.4		-0.0	0.0		-0.0
Wigan	England	28	7	-	7	-	16	-31	Out			5.4		-0.0	0.0		-0.0
Burnley	England	24	6	-	6	-	18	-32	Out			5.4		0.0	0.0		0.0
Portsmouth	England	19	5	-	4	-	20	-26	Out			5.4			Out
Nice	France	29	8	-	5	-	15	-17	Out			5.4			0.0
Saint-Étienne	France	28	7	-	7	-	14	-14	Out			5.4			0.0
Le Mans UC72	France	21	5	-	6	-	16	-17	Out			5.4			0.0
Grenoble	France	14	3	-	5	-	20	-26	Out			5.4			Out
Boulogne	France	20	4	-	8	-	16	-27	Out			5.4			Out

232 teams	14 countries								3,500.000			5,079.245			1,400.000

I sum up the odds at the bottom as a sanity check.

I expect to see:

Champions League: The leagues I cover send 35 teams, so 3,500.000
UEFA Cup: The leagues I cover send 38 teams directly, plus (on average) 7 losers from the Champions League, 5.25 winners from the the Intertoto Cup, and .79245 Fair Play teams. That sums up to 5,104.245
Intertoto Cup: Each of the 14 leagues I cover send 1 team, so 1,400.000