SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team's chances of making the playoffs

UEFA is back!
Season:
2008-2009
2007-2008
NA  SA  Eu  Af  As  Oc  
Europe
09-10 Qualifying
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
England
France
Germany
Greece
Italy
Netherlands
Portugal
Russia
Scotland
Spain
Turkey
(-2.22)

This shows the chance that each team will qualify for the 2009-2010 UEFA tournaments.

Assumtions:

  • When I simulate a countries cup winner (or winners, in the case of England and France), I assume that only teams from the countries top league will win, and that each of those teams has an equal chance of winning.
  • I don't account for the automatic spot defending champions get in the Champions League and UEFA Cup, so even if your team shows 0% chance they could still get in if they win the tournament this year or if they where next in line to go and a team ahead of them in their league won.
  • All 53 leagues have an equal chance at earning one of the three Fair Play UEFA Cup slots. I don't account for Norway and Sweden's fair play dominance.
  • Every league and team registers for and has not been banned from the tournaments.
  • Finally, this all still builds on the assumption that all teams have an equal chance of winning their remaining games.

But other than all that :), I think this list covers all the rules for tournament entry.

The change columns show the change since last week. A teams combined odds of getting into the 3 tournaments can exceed 100% because some of the Champions League losers and the Intertoto Cup winners get to also play in the UEFA Cup.

Champions LeagueUEFA CupIntertoto Cup
CountryPW-D-LGD%Change%Change%Change
Rubin KazanRussia4212-6-21596.7% 4.45.9% -5.60.2% -0.5
DynamoRussia3610-6-4767.0% -4.836.6% 4.84.4% 0.8
SpartakRussia338-9-3634.9% 10.951.2% 3.910.3% -0.8
Rapid WienAustria196-1-11332.9% 8.551.9% 0.89.4% -1.6
Amkar PermRussia329-5-6631.7% -14.351.1% 4.710.9% 3.1
RangersScotland103-1-0531.1% 5.525.8% 1.410.2% 0.4
ChelseaEngland72-1-0530.8% -1.326.8% -0.25.6% 0.0
KilmarnockScotland103-1-0430.8% 5.525.7% 1.310.1% 0.4
LiverpoolEngland72-1-0229.9% -1.326.6% -0.25.6% -0.0
MarseilleFrance103-1-0629.9% 5.624.1% 1.16.2% 0.3
LyonFrance103-1-0629.8% 5.524.1% 1.16.2% 0.3
CSKARussia328-8-41229.6% 9.650.7% 5.911.7% -0.2
Odense BKDenmark155-0-1627.7% 6.946.1% 2.99.5% -0.6
SchalkeGermany72-1-0427.3% 5.827.0% 2.06.4% 0.3
Hamburger SVGermany72-1-0327.0% 6.027.0% 2.26.4% 0.4
BVBGermany72-1-0226.6% 5.626.9% 2.16.4% 0.3
Man. CityEngland62-0-1426.6% 6.525.7% 2.55.5% 0.4
ArsenalEngland62-0-1326.3% 6.525.6% 2.65.5% 0.4
Atlético MadridSpain31-0-0426.2% 6.124.6% 1.85.4% 0.4
MouscronBelgium93-0-0426.1% 5.619.6% 1.68.1% 0.7
TorinoItaly31-0-0326.0% 6.025.3% 2.55.4% 0.4
LazioItaly31-0-0326.0% 6.025.3% 2.55.4% 0.4
HeartsScotland93-0-1126.0% 4.625.1% 1.610.1% 0.7
MiddlesbroughEngland62-0-1125.8% 6.025.4% 2.35.5% 0.4
UdineseItaly31-0-0225.8% 5.825.2% 2.45.4% 0.4
West HamEngland62-0-1125.8% 6.425.5% 2.65.5% 0.4
AlmeríaSpain31-0-0225.6% 5.624.5% 1.75.4% 0.4
Le Mans UC72France93-0-1525.6% 5.523.6% 1.56.1% 0.5
Chievo VeronaItaly31-0-0125.5% 5.525.1% 2.35.4% 0.4
Calcio CataniaItaly31-0-0125.5% 5.525.1% 2.35.4% 0.4
BolognaItaly31-0-0125.5% 5.525.1% 2.45.4% 0.4
Atalanta BCItaly31-0-0125.4% 5.425.1% 2.35.4% 0.4
GetafeSpain31-0-0125.4% 5.424.4% 1.65.4% 0.4
RecreSpain31-0-0125.4% 5.424.4% 1.65.4% 0.4
NumanciaSpain31-0-0125.4% 5.424.4% 1.65.4% 0.4
DeportivoSpain31-0-0125.4% 5.424.4% 1.65.4% 0.4
NiceFrance93-0-1325.0% 5.123.6% 1.56.1% 0.5
GrenobleFrance93-0-1124.5% 4.823.5% 1.56.1% 0.5
Man. UnitedEngland41-1-0123.8% 0.424.5% -0.15.3% -0.1
LeverkusenGermany62-0-1423.3% 5.626.1% 2.66.3% 0.5
CD NacionalPortugal62-0-0322.8% 5.839.3% 3.46.8% 0.1
VfB StuttgartGermany62-0-1222.7% 5.225.8% 2.56.3% 0.5
HoffenheimGermany62-0-1122.5% -7.025.8% -1.36.3% -0.0
FulhamEngland31-0-1020.2% 0.423.1% -0.05.1% -0.0
EspanyolSpain00-0-0020.0% -0.022.8% 0.05.0% 0.0
ValenciaSpain00-0-0020.0% -0.022.8% 0.05.0% -0.0
ValladolidSpain00-0-0020.0% -0.022.8% 0.05.0% 0.0
MallorcaSpain00-0-0020.0% 0.022.8% -0.05.0% -0.0
BeşiktaşTurkey62-0-0319.8% 4.717.9% 1.97.5% 0.9
TrabzonsporTurkey62-0-0319.7% 4.517.9% 1.87.4% 0.9
BursasporTurkey62-0-0319.7% 4.717.9% 1.97.5% 0.9
GaziantepsporTurkey62-0-0319.7% 4.617.9% 1.97.4% 0.9
Bayern MünchenGermany51-2-0319.5% 4.924.7% 2.86.1% 0.7
CelticScotland72-1-1219.3% -6.623.4% -1.19.5% -0.2
Caley ThistleScotland72-1-1219.2% 3.723.4% 1.99.6% 1.0
VfL WolfsburgGermany51-2-0119.1% -2.024.4% -0.46.1% -0.0
Aston VillaEngland41-1-1118.9% -1.222.7% -0.55.1% -0.1
BoltonEngland41-1-1118.9% -1.122.7% -0.55.0% -0.1
AberdeenScotland72-1-1018.8% 3.623.2% 1.99.5% 1.0
SampdoriaItaly10-1-0018.6% -1.322.4% -0.45.0% -0.0
Inter MilanItaly10-1-0018.6% -1.422.4% -0.45.0% -0.0
FiorentinaItaly10-1-0018.6% -1.322.4% -0.45.0% -0.0
JuventusItaly10-1-0018.6% -1.422.4% -0.45.0% -0.1
AS RomaItaly10-1-0018.6% -1.422.4% -0.45.0% -0.0
NapoliItaly10-1-0018.6% -1.422.4% -0.45.0% -0.1
OsasunaSpain10-1-0018.6% -1.422.5% -0.35.0% -0.0
VillarrealSpain10-1-0018.6% -1.522.5% -0.35.0% -0.0
RacingSpain10-1-0018.5% -1.522.5% -0.35.0% -0.1
SevillaSpain10-1-0018.5% -1.522.5% -0.35.0% -0.0
BlackburnEngland41-1-1-218.3% -5.022.4% -2.15.0% -0.3
NewcastleEngland41-1-1-218.2% -5.122.4% -2.25.0% -0.3
Sturm GrazAustria165-1-2718.1% -6.348.9% -2.112.1% 1.0
HullEngland41-1-1-417.9% -5.422.2% -2.45.0% -0.4
Standard LiègeBelgium72-1-0517.9% -2.617.5% -0.57.3% -0.1
GentBelgium72-1-0717.8% 4.217.5% 1.97.3% 1.0
AnderlechtBelgium72-1-0717.8% 4.217.5% 1.97.3% 1.0
PSGFrance72-1-1117.7% 3.821.9% 1.75.7% 0.6
Sporting LisbonPortugal31-0-0117.0% 4.535.5% 4.06.7% 0.4
GuimaraesPortugal31-0-0117.0% 4.535.6% 4.06.7% 0.4
Vitoria SetubalPortugal31-0-0117.0% 4.535.6% 4.06.7% 0.4
AE LarissaGreece31-0-0316.9% 4.417.9% 2.07.3% 1.0
OlympiakosGreece31-0-0216.6% 4.117.9% 1.97.3% 1.0
PAOKGreece31-0-0216.6% 4.117.9% 1.97.2% 1.0
Aris FCGreece31-0-0216.6% 4.117.9% 1.97.2% 1.0
PanserraikosGreece31-0-0116.4% 3.917.8% 1.87.2% 1.0
ErgotelisGreece31-0-0116.4% 3.917.8% 1.87.2% 0.9
AEK AthensGreece31-0-0116.4% 3.817.8% 1.87.2% 1.0
Skoda XanthiGreece31-0-0116.3% 3.817.8% 1.87.2% 0.9
WiganEngland31-0-2316.3% 4.821.4% 3.14.8% 0.7
HamiltonScotland62-0-2116.0% -5.722.2% -1.49.1% -0.4
FC KölnGermany41-1-1115.9% 4.022.9% 2.85.7% 0.7
FC PortoPortugal41-1-0215.6% -1.435.2% -0.66.7% 0.0
AC MilanItaly00-0-1-115.6% -4.420.8% -2.04.7% -0.3
Reggina CalcioItaly00-0-1-115.6% -4.420.8% -2.04.7% -0.3
AC SienaItaly00-0-1-115.6% -4.420.8% -2.04.7% -0.3
GenoaItaly00-0-1-115.6% -4.420.8% -2.04.7% -0.3
Sporting de GijónSpain00-0-1-115.5% -4.421.4% -1.44.6% -0.4
BarcelonaSpain00-0-1-115.5% -4.521.4% -1.44.7% -0.3
Real MadridSpain00-0-1-115.5% -4.521.4% -1.44.6% -0.4
Real BetisSpain00-0-1-115.5% -4.521.4% -1.44.6% -0.4
Hertha BerlinGermany41-1-1-115.5% -5.822.7% -2.25.7% -0.4
PalermoItaly00-0-1-215.4% -4.620.7% -2.14.6% -0.4
Stoke CityEngland31-0-2-215.4% -4.220.9% -2.14.7% -0.4
PortsmouthEngland31-0-2-215.4% 4.420.9% 2.94.7% 0.7
Athletic BilbaoSpain00-0-1-215.3% -4.721.3% -1.54.6% -0.4
Cagliari CalcioItaly00-0-1-315.3% -4.820.6% -2.24.6% -0.4
EvertonEngland31-0-2-315.2% -4.620.8% -2.34.7% -0.4
LecceItaly00-0-1-315.2% -4.820.6% -2.24.6% -0.4
PSV EindhovenNetherlands31-0-0415.2% 4.117.9% 2.46.6% 1.0
Krylya SovetovRussia307-9-41115.2% 5.744.4% 9.313.5% 2.2
FC GroningenNetherlands31-0-0415.2% 4.117.9% 2.46.6% 1.0
SunderlandEngland31-0-2-315.2% -4.620.8% -2.34.7% -0.4
Den HaagNetherlands31-0-0315.0% 3.917.9% 2.36.6% 1.0
WesterloBelgium62-0-1-115.0% 3.716.5% 1.96.9% 1.0
MálagaSpain00-0-1-415.0% -5.021.2% -1.64.6% -0.4
BordeauxFrance62-0-2114.9% -5.221.0% -1.25.3% -0.3
Club BruggeBelgium31-0-0314.8% 3.616.0% 1.86.6% 1.0
HeraclesNetherlands31-0-0214.8% 3.717.7% 2.26.5% 0.9
NEC NijmegenNetherlands31-0-0214.8% 3.717.8% 2.26.5% 1.0
HeerenveenNetherlands31-0-0114.6% 3.517.7% 2.16.5% 0.9
BrøndbyDenmark124-0-2114.6% 3.940.0% 4.910.5% 0.5
Willem IINetherlands31-0-0114.6% 3.517.7% 2.16.5% 0.9
NAC BredaNetherlands31-0-0114.6% 3.517.7% 2.16.5% 0.9
ValenciennesFrance62-0-2-114.5% -5.420.9% -1.25.3% -0.3
ZenitRussia287-7-5814.5% -0.841.2% 0.112.7% 0.9
AuxerreFrance62-0-2-214.3% 3.320.8% 1.85.3% 0.7
Austria WienAustria154-3-1213.9% 3.846.1% 4.512.6% -0.1
GalatasarayTurkey41-1-0313.8% -1.715.8% -0.46.5% -0.1
SivassporTurkey41-1-0213.5% 3.415.7% 1.96.4% 1.1
Zulte WaregemBelgium41-1-0213.2% 3.215.5% 1.86.3% 1.0
VfL BorussiaGermany31-0-2-212.6% 3.220.9% 2.65.3% 0.8
SalzburgAustria144-2-2912.6% -4.544.4% -3.412.6% 0.3
KarlsruherGermany31-0-2-212.6% -4.920.9% -2.45.3% -0.5
AcadémicaPortugal31-0-1012.4% 3.532.4% 4.36.5% 0.6
MidtjyllandDenmark113-2-1412.4% -1.438.1% -0.710.4% 0.1
Naval 1º de MaioPortugal31-0-1012.4% -4.432.4% -3.26.5% -0.2
Estrela AmadoraPortugal31-0-1012.4% -4.432.4% -3.26.5% -0.2
CopenhagenDenmark113-2-1312.3% -4.637.7% -3.310.4% 0.0
LeixoesPortugal31-0-1-112.2% 3.532.3% 4.46.5% 0.7
MonacoFrance51-2-1012.2% -4.619.9% -1.35.0% -0.4
NancyFrance51-2-1012.2% 2.819.9% 1.75.0% 0.7
RennesFrance51-2-1012.2% -1.719.9% -0.35.0% -0.1
ToulouseFrance51-2-1-211.9% -1.719.7% -0.44.9% -0.1
Paços FerreiraPortugal10-1-0011.3% -1.230.7% -0.86.2% -0.1
FenerbahçeTurkey31-0-1111.0% 2.914.5% 1.85.8% 1.1
MotherwellScotland41-1-2-110.9% 2.319.6% 1.87.7% 1.1
HibernianScotland41-1-2-110.9% -4.519.6% -1.87.7% -0.8
KonyasporTurkey31-0-1-110.7% -4.414.4% -1.75.7% -0.8
TottenhamEngland10-1-2-210.6% -0.917.7% -0.64.0% -0.1
West BromEngland10-1-2-210.6% -0.817.7% -0.64.0% -0.1
DenizlisporTurkey31-0-1-210.6% 2.714.3% 1.75.7% 1.0
Werder BremenGermany20-2-1-110.5% -4.119.4% -2.44.9% -0.6
Arminia BielefeldGermany20-2-1-210.3% -4.319.3% -2.54.9% -0.6
EintrachtGermany20-2-1-210.3% -1.419.3% -0.74.8% -0.1
BenficaPortugal20-2-0010.1% -1.129.9% -0.96.1% -0.1
CaenFrance41-1-2010.1% -4.018.9% -1.54.5% -0.5
TwenteNetherlands10-1-009.8% -1.315.0% -0.65.3% -0.2
LilleFrance41-1-2-29.8% 2.418.7% 1.64.5% 0.7
Roda JCNetherlands10-1-009.8% -1.315.0% -0.65.3% -0.2
GenkBelgium41-1-1-19.6% 2.513.9% 1.75.5% 1.0
LorientFrance41-1-2-39.6% -4.118.6% -1.64.5% -0.6
LokerenBelgium41-1-129.6% -4.113.9% -1.75.5% -0.9
KortrijkBelgium41-1-1-39.6% -4.113.9% -1.75.5% -0.9
TrofensePortugal00-0-1-19.0% -3.528.1% -3.55.8% -0.4
BragaPortugal00-0-1-19.0% -3.528.0% -3.55.8% -0.5
EskişehirsporTurkey20-2-008.8% -1.313.4% -0.55.2% -0.2
KayserisporTurkey20-2-008.8% -1.313.4% -0.55.2% -0.2
PanthrakikosGreece00-0-1-18.6% -3.914.2% -1.85.3% -0.9
IraklisGreece00-0-1-18.6% -3.914.2% -1.85.3% -1.0
PanathinaikosGreece00-0-1-18.6% -3.914.2% -1.85.3% -0.9
PanioniosGreece00-0-1-18.6% -3.914.2% -1.85.3% -1.0
OFI CreteGreece00-0-1-28.5% -4.114.1% -1.95.2% -1.0
AsterasGreece00-0-1-28.4% -4.114.1% -1.95.3% -1.0
LevadiakosGreece00-0-1-28.4% -4.114.1% -1.95.3% -1.0
VfL BochumGermany10-1-2-28.3% -3.617.7% -2.54.4% -0.6
ThrasivoulosGreece00-0-1-38.3% -4.214.0% -2.05.2% -1.1
Energie CottbusGermany10-1-2-48.1% -3.517.4% -2.54.3% -0.7
Randers FCDenmark92-3-148.0% -3.532.4% -3.89.7% -0.4
Saint-ÉtienneFrance31-0-3-27.9% -3.517.7% -1.54.0% -0.6
Hannover 96Germany10-1-2-57.9% -3.617.3% -2.64.3% -0.7
Le HavreFrance31-0-3-27.9% -3.517.7% -1.54.0% -0.6
Rio AvePortugal10-1-1-17.9% -3.327.1% -3.75.7% -0.5
AjaxNetherlands00-0-1-17.8% -3.313.7% -1.94.7% -0.9
FC VolendamNetherlands00-0-1-17.8% -3.313.7% -1.94.7% -0.8
AZ AlkmaarNetherlands00-0-1-17.8% -3.313.7% -1.94.7% -0.9
MonsBelgium31-0-2-47.8% -3.512.9% -1.74.9% -0.9
Cercle BruggeBelgium31-0-2-37.8% 2.112.9% 1.54.9% 1.0
CharleroiBelgium31-0-2-27.8% -3.612.9% -1.74.9% -0.9
BelenensesPortugal10-1-1-27.8% -0.926.9% -1.05.7% -0.1
FeyenoordNetherlands00-0-1-27.7% -3.413.6% -2.04.7% -0.9
De GraafschapNetherlands00-0-1-27.7% -3.413.6% -2.04.7% -0.9
SpartaNetherlands00-0-1-37.6% -3.513.5% -2.14.6% -0.9
FC UtrechtNetherlands00-0-1-47.5% -3.613.4% -2.24.6% -1.0
Vitesse ArnhemNetherlands00-0-1-47.5% -3.613.4% -2.24.6% -1.0
LinzAustria124-0-4-27.1% -3.236.8% -4.712.0% -0.6
OFTAŞTurkey10-1-1-17.0% -1.112.3% -0.54.5% -0.2
DundeeScotland20-2-2-47.0% -3.417.0% -2.06.2% -1.1
KocaelisporTurkey10-1-1-26.9% -3.212.2% -1.64.5% -0.9
IstanbulTurkey10-1-1-26.9% -3.212.2% -1.64.5% -0.9
GençlerbirliğiTurkey10-1-1-26.9% -3.212.2% -1.64.5% -0.9
MaritimoPortugal00-0-2-26.1% -2.724.3% -3.85.2% -0.6
Austria KärntenAustria113-2-325.9% 1.734.4% 4.511.6% 1.2
VejleDenmark82-2-2-15.9% -0.928.5% -1.08.8% -0.1
GerminalBelgium20-2-1-15.8% -2.911.6% -1.64.1% -0.9
RoeselareBelgium20-2-1-15.8% -1.311.6% -0.74.1% -0.4
St. MirrenScotland10-1-3-35.7% -2.815.9% -1.85.5% -1.1
AntalyasporTurkey00-0-2-25.5% -2.611.3% -1.53.9% -0.8
AnkaragücüTurkey00-0-2-2