How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

 Week of 3/10 100.0* Chance in playoffs 100.0* Serie A2 100.0* Average seed Sao Bento 0 Linense 1 -0.3 -0.1 Novorizontino 2 Ferroviaria 0 +0.1 Week of 3/18 100.0* Chance in playoffs 100.0* Serie A2 100.0* Average seed Ituano 5 Linense 1 +2.2 +0.2 Sao Paulo 1 Ituano 1 -1.9 No -0.1 Corinthians 1 Red Bull 1 +1.4 +0.0 Botafogo 1 Sao Paulo 1 -0.4 -0.1 Ferroviaria 1 Corinthians 0 -0.2 Sao Bernardo 0 Ferroviaria 0 +0.1 Santo Andre 3 Ponte Preta 3 *No If winner is:HomeEmpateAway Week of 3/26 100.0* Chance in playoffs 100.0* Serie A2 100.0* Average seed Sao Bernardo vs Sao Paulo -4.5-0.6In -0.3-0.1+0.2 Ituano vs Red Bull In+1.0-4.1 +0.1+0.0-0.1 Red Bull vs Botafogo -3.5+1.2In -0.1+0.0+0.1 Sao Paulo vs Corinthians In+0.3-2.6 +0.2-0.0-0.2 Linense vs Sao Bernardo -2.5+1.4+1.7 -0.2+0.1+0.1 Corinthians vs Linense +0.8+0.4-2.6 +0.1+0.1-0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Sao Paulo finish out the regular season.   Explain

 100 100 100 100 If finish: Chance in Chance will finish regular season at seed Serie TP W - L - E playoffs 1 2 3 4 A2 Count 22 2 - 0 - 0 In 100 No 160,877,927 20 1 - 0 - 1 In 92 8 No 184,688,934 19 1 - 1 - 0 In 92 8 No 263,623,600 18 0 - 0 - 2 97.2 % 68 29 3 No 51,814,616 17 0 - 1 - 1 93.5 43 51 7 No 143,594,457 16 0 - 2 - 0 86.0 35 51 14 No 95,789,890 Total: 97.3 % 78 19 3 No 900,389,424
Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

 Week of 3/10 100.0* Lottery seed Mirassol 1 Ituano 1 -0.1 Sao Bento 0 Linense 1 +0.1 Sao Bernardo 1 Santos 4 +0.1 Ponte Preta 1 Corinthians 1 -0.0 Week of 3/18 100.0* Lottery seed Sao Paulo 1 Ituano 1 +0.6 Botafogo 1 Sao Paulo 1 +0.2 Mirassol 2 Santo Andre 3 -0.2 Sao Bento 0 Santos 2 +0.1 Novorizontino 2 Audax 2 -0.1 Santo Andre 3 Ponte Preta 3 -0.1 Ponte Preta 1 Novorizontino 2 -0.1 Palmeiras 2 Mirassol 0 -0.1 Santos 1 Palmeiras 2 -0.1 Ituano 5 Linense 1 -0.1 Corinthians 1 Red Bull 1 -0.1 If winner is:HomeEmpateAway Week of 3/26 100.0* Lottery seed Sao Bernardo vs Sao Paulo +1.8+0.6-1.3 Sao Paulo vs Corinthians -1.5+0.2+1.3 Ponte Preta vs Palmeiras +0.3+0.1-0.1 Sao Bento vs Ponte Preta -0.2-0.1+0.2 Santo Andre vs Santos -0.2-0.1+0.2 Mirassol vs Sao Bento +0.2-0.2-0.2 Corinthians vs Linense -0.0-0.2+0.2 Novorizontino vs Mirassol +0.0-0.2+0.1 Linense vs Sao Bernardo +0.2-0.2-0.1 Santos vs Novorizontino +0.1-0.2+0.0 Ferroviaria vs Ituano -0.2-0.1+0.1 Botafogo vs Ferroviaria +0.1-0.1-0.2 Red Bull vs Botafogo -0.1-0.1+0.1 Ituano vs Red Bull +0.1-0.1-0.1

What If

 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 If finish: Chance will finish season at seed TP W - L - E 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 22 2 - 0 - 0 32 52 15 0 20 1 - 0 - 1 25 54 19 2 0 19 1 - 1 - 0 7 37 37 16 3 0 0 18 0 - 0 - 2 0 9 29 36 20 5 0 0 17 0 - 1 - 1 0 5 19 34 28 11 2 0 16 0 - 2 - 0 0 0 2 10 28 36 20 4 0 0 0 Total: 6 17 25 17 10 9 8 6 2 0 0 0 0