How are these numbers calculated?

## Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

 Week of 11/29 100.0* Chance wins title 100.0* UEFA CL 100.0* Championship 100.0* Average seed Ural 3 Mordovia Saransk 1 +0.4 +1.7 -4.6 +0.9 Anzhi 1 CSKA Moskva 1 +0.1 -0.1 Terek Grozny 4 Zenit 1 +0.1 +0.1 Ufa 2 Kuban Krasnodar 2 -0.4 Krylya Sovetov 0 Amkar Perm 0 -0.2 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Lokomotiv Moskva vs Ural -0.7-0.4+1.0 -2.6-1.2+3.5 +1.8+0.2-1.9 -0.7-0.2+0.9 Amkar Perm vs CSKA Moskva +0.3+0.1-0.3 +0.4+0.1-0.5 +0.3-0.1-0.3 Rostov vs Rubin Kazan -0.2+0.1+0.1 -0.6+0.2+0.5 -0.2*-0.0+0.2 Krasnodar vs Rostov +0.1+0.1-0.1 +0.3+0.2-0.5 +0.1*+0.0-0.1 -0.1+0.0+0.0 Dynamo Moskva vs Lokomotiv Moskva +0.1+0.0-0.1 +0.4+0.1-0.6 +0.2*-0.0-0.2 Zenit vs Ufa -0.1+0.0+0.1 -0.4+0.1+0.3 -0.3-0.1+0.4 -0.1+0.0+0.0 Spartak Moskva vs Krylya Sovetov -0.1*+0.0+0.0 -0.3+0.1+0.2 -0.2-0.1+0.2 Rubin Kazan vs Spartak Moskva +0.2+0.1-0.2 +0.2*-0.0-0.1 Mordovia Saransk vs Terek Grozny +0.2+0.0-0.2 +0.2-0.1-0.1 +0.1+0.0-0.1 Kuban Krasnodar vs Krasnodar +0.1*+0.0-0.1 +0.3-0.1-0.2 +0.0+0.0-0.1 Dynamo Moskva vs Anzhi *+0.0-0.1+0.1 -0.1+0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

## What If

Chances based on how well the Ural finish out the regular season.   Explain

 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 If finish: Chance Chance will finish season at seed TP W - D - L wins title UEFA CL 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Championship Count 64 13 - 0 - 0 99.6 % Yes 100 0 No 801 62 12 - 1 - 0 98.4 Yes 98 2 No 62 61 12 - 0 - 1 95.1 Yes 95 5 No 82 60 11 - 2 - 0 93.0 Yes 93 7 No 356 59 11 - 1 - 1 85.5 99.7 % 86 14 0 No 966 58 10 - 3 - 0 79.5 99.5 80 20 1 No 1,739 * 57 10 - 2 - 1 71.9 98.1 72 26 2 No 4,216 56 10 - 1 - 2 61.0 96.2 61 35 4 0 No 7,492 * 55 9 - 3 - 1 47.5 91.8 48 44 8 0 0 No 13,466 * 54 9 - 2 - 2 35.5 84.7 36 49 14 1 0 No 24,182 * 53 8 - 4 - 1 23.1 72.9 23 50 23 3 0 No 37,866 * 52 8 - 3 - 2 13.5 58.2 14 45 33 8 1 0 No 60,651 * 51 8 - 2 - 3 6.6 41.3 7 35 41 16 2 0 0 No 90,465 * 50 7 - 4 - 2 2.6 25.0 3 22 42 26 6 1 0 No 124,549 * 49 7 - 3 - 3 0.9 13.0 1 12 36 36 14 2 0 0 No 171,807 * 48 7 - 2 - 4 0.2 5.9 0 6 26 39 23 6 1 0 No 125,992 6 - 5 - 2 0.1 4.6 0 4 23 39 26 7 1 0 No 97,462 * 47 6 - 4 - 3 0.0 1.6 0 2 13 34 34 14 2 0 0 No 274,462 * 46 6 - 3 - 4 0.0 0.4 0 0 6 24 38 25 7 1 0 No 239,983 5 - 6 - 2 0.0 0.3 0 0 5 22 38 27 8 1 0 No 91,165 * 45 5 - 5 - 3 No 0.0 0 1 11 31 36 17 3 0 0 No 190,595 6 - 2 - 5 No 0.1 0 2 13 32 35 16 3 0 0 No 185,232 * 44 5 - 4 - 4 No 0.0 0 0 4 20 37 29 9 1 0 No 292,943 6 - 1 - 6 No 0.0 0 0 5 20 37 28 9 1 0 No 117,643 * 43 5 - 3 - 5 No 0.0 0 0 1 10 29 37 19 4 0 0 No 286,892 4 - 6 - 3 No No 0 1 9 29 37 20 4 0 0 No 145,328 * 42 4 - 5 - 4 No No 0 0 3 16 36 32 11 1 0 0 No 238,587 5 - 2 - 6 No No 0 0 3 17 36 31 10 1 0 0 No 194,496 * 41 4 - 4 - 5 No No 0 1 7 26 39 22 5 0 0 No 294,241 5 - 1 - 7 No No 0 1 7 26 39 23 5 0 0 No 122,867 * 40 4 - 3 - 6 No No 0 0 2 14 35 34 13 2 0 0 0.0 % 238,922 3 - 6 - 4 No No 0 0 2 13 34 35 14 2 0 0 0.0 144,588 * 39 3 - 5 - 5 No No 0 0 5 22 38 26 8 1 0 0 0.0 191,667 4 - 2 - 7 No No 0 0 5 23 38 26 7 1 0 0 0.0 143,619 * 38 3 - 4 - 6 No No 0 0 1 11 31 36 18 4 0 0 0.3 195,104 2 - 7 - 4 No No 0 1 10 30 36 18 4 0 0 0.3 84,858 * 37 3 - 3 - 7 No No 0 0 4 18 36 30 11 2 0 0 1.7 137,312 2 - 6 - 5 No No 0 0 3 17 35 31 12 2 0 0 1.9 86,765 * 36 2 - 5 - 6 No No 0 1 7 26 36 23 6 1 0 0 6.9 167,840 * 35 2 - 4 - 7 No No 0 0 2 13 32 34 15 3 0 0 18.6 119,283 * 34 2 - 3 - 8 No No 0 0 5 21 36 27 9 1 0 37.5 80,360 * 33 1 - 5 - 7 No No 0 1 10 28 36 20 4 0 60.4 50,488 * 32 1 - 4 - 8 No No 0 0 3 17 36 32 11 1 80.1 29,013 * 31 1 - 3 - 9 No No 0 1 7 26 40 22 4 91.7 15,764 * 30 1 - 2 - 10 No No 0 3 15 39 35 9 97.3 7,631 * 29 0 - 4 - 9 No No 0 1 8 29 45 17 99.2 3,266 * 28 0 - 3 - 10 No No 0 2 20 47 31 99.8 1,211 * 27 0 - 2 - 11 No No 9 43 48 Yes 373 26 0 - 1 - 12 No No 6 40 54 Yes 80 25 0 - 0 - 13 No No 2 27 72 Yes 804 Total: 1.1 % 4.3 % 1 3 6 9 11 13 14 13 11 8 5 3 2 1 0 0 2.9 % 5,135,536

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship