How are these numbers calculated?

## Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

 Week of 11/29 100.0* Chance wins title 100.0* UEFA CL 100.0* Championship 100.0* Average seed Anzhi 1 CSKA Moskva 1 +2.1 +0.9 +0.0 Terek Grozny 4 Zenit 1 +0.5 +2.1 +0.0 Ural 3 Mordovia Saransk 1 -0.1 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Krasnodar vs Rostov -3.8-0.6+8.8 -7.4+0.2+15.5 +0.0-0.0No -0.3+0.1+0.6 Rostov vs Rubin Kazan +3.7-4.3-6.6 +7.0-7.7-13.2 No-0.0+0.1 +0.3-0.3-0.6 Amkar Perm vs CSKA Moskva +4.3+2.1-3.3 +1.7+0.7-1.3 +0.1+0.0-0.1 Dynamo Moskva vs Lokomotiv Moskva +0.6+0.3-0.8 +2.6+1.2-3.4 +0.1+0.0-0.1 Lokomotiv Moskva vs Ural -0.5+0.5+0.7 -2.2+2.2+2.9 -0.0+0.1+0.0 Zenit vs Ufa -0.3+0.4+0.6 -1.4+2.0+2.9 -0.0+0.1+0.1 Mordovia Saransk vs Terek Grozny +0.2+0.1-0.3 +1.2+0.6-1.5 +0.1+0.0-0.1 Kuban Krasnodar vs Krasnodar +0.2+0.1-0.2 +0.9+0.5-1.2 +0.1+0.0-0.1 Rubin Kazan vs Spartak Moskva +0.1*+0.0-0.1 +0.6+0.2-0.9 +0.0+0.0-0.1 Spartak Moskva vs Krylya Sovetov -0.1+0.1+0.1 -0.4+0.5+0.7 -0.0+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

## What If

Chances based on how well Rostov finishes out the regular season.   Explain

 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 If finish: Chance Chance will finish season at seed TP W - D - L wins title UEFA CL 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Championship Count 71 -73 Yes Yes 100 No 3,267 * 70 13 - 0 - 1 99.9 % Yes 100 0 No 821 69 12 - 2 - 0 99.6 Yes 100 0 No 3,372 68 12 - 1 - 1 99.3 Yes 99 1 No 7,348 67 11 - 3 - 0 98.4 Yes 98 2 No 13,617 * 66 11 - 2 - 1 96.3 100.0 % 96 4 0 No 30,958 65 11 - 1 - 2 94.1 Yes 94 6 No 51,448 * 64 10 - 3 - 1 90.5 100.0 91 9 0 No 91,038 * 63 10 - 2 - 2 85.5 100.0 86 14 0 No 150,162 * 62 9 - 4 - 1 79.1 99.9 79 21 0 No 224,903 * 61 9 - 3 - 2 70.7 99.5 71 29 0 0 No 336,745 * 60 9 - 2 - 3 61.1 98.8 61 38 1 0 No 467,351 * 59 8 - 4 - 2 50.3 97.1 50 47 3 0 No 617,491 * 58 8 - 3 - 3 39.0 93.9 39 55 6 0 0 No 794,008 * 57 7 - 5 - 2 26.7 87.3 27 61 12 1 0 No 493,829 8 - 2 - 4 29.7 89.0 30 59 10 0 0 No 462,004 * 56 7 - 4 - 3 18.1 78.4 18 60 20 2 0 No 820,178 8 - 1 - 5 18.9 79.9 19 61 19 2 0 No 288,174 * 55 7 - 3 - 4 11.3 67.2 11 56 28 4 0 0 No 811,882 6 - 6 - 2 9.8 64.9 10 55 30 5 0 0 No 430,174 * 54 6 - 5 - 3 5.0 49.6 5 45 39 10 1 0 No 842,372 * 7 - 2 - 5 6.1 53.3 6 47 37 9 1 0 0 No 474,753 53 6 - 4 - 4 2.3 35.0 2 33 44 18 3 0 0 No 958,815 5 - 7 - 2 2.2 34.9 2 33 44 18 3 0 0 No 385,989 * 52 6 - 3 - 5 0.9 22.0 1 21 43 28 7 1 0 No 764,331 * 5 - 6 - 3 0.7 19.8 1 19 43 29 7 1 0 0 No 550,587 * 51 5 - 5 - 4 0.2 10.3 0 10 35 37 15 2 0 0 No 773,628 6 - 2 - 6 0.2 11.4 0 11 36 36 14 2 0 0 No 455,655 * 50 5 - 4 - 5 0.0 4.7 0 5 24 39 25 6 1 0 No 744,939 4 - 7 - 3 0.0 4.3 0 4 23 39 26 7 1 0 No 357,475 * 49 5 - 3 - 6 0.0 1.7 0 2 14 34 34 14 2 0 No 473,173 4 - 6 - 4 0.0 1.4 0 1 12 34 35 15 2 0 No 474,069 * 48 4 - 5 - 5 0.0 0.4 0 0 6 24 38 25 6 0 0 No 776,755 * 47 4 - 4 - 6 No 0.1 0 2 13 34 35 14 2 0 0 No 607,902 * 46 3 - 6 - 5 No 0.0 0 0 6 23 40 26 5 0 0 No 452,822 * 45 3 - 5 - 6 No 0.0 0 0 2 13 35 37 12 1 0 No 320,964 * 44 3 - 4 - 7 No No 0 0 6 25 43 23 2 0 No 217,413 * 43 2 - 6 - 6 No No 0 2 14 41 36 6 0 0 No 138,392 * 42 2 - 5 - 7 No No 0 0 6 32 46 14 1 0 No 83,673 * 41 2 - 4 - 8 No No 0 2 20 50 25 3 0 0 No 47,618 * 40 2 - 3 - 9 No No 0 1 10 44 36 9 1 No 25,286 * 39 1 - 5 - 8 No No 0 4 32 44 18 2 0 No 12,701 * 38 1 - 4 - 9 No No 0 1 20 44 28 6 0 No 5,722 * 37 1 - 3 - 10 No No 0 9 37 39 14 1 0 0.1 % 2,290 * 36 0 - 5 - 9 No No 3 21 43 26 6 0 0.5 835 * 35 0 - 4 - 10 No No 1 13 39 30 16 2 1.7 294 * 34 0 - 3 - 11 No No 3 30 43 19 4 1 5.2 77 * 33 0 - 2 - 12 No No 8 31 46 15 15.4 13 32 0 - 1 - 13 No No 100 No 1 31 0 - 0 - 14 No No 1 10 33 38 15 2 0 55.8 2,494 Total: 14.7 % 42.9 % 15 28 21 14 10 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 % 16,049,808

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship