"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

## Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

 Week of 3/23 100.0* Chance in playoffs 100.0* Average seed Macae 1 Resende 2 -4.7 -0.2 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Madureira vs Fluminense -22.9-10.6+21.4 -0.8-0.3+0.8 Fluminense vs Macae +20.8-11.0-23.2 +0.7-0.3-0.9 Botafogo vs Fluminense -11.6+1.9+31.1 -0.4+0.1+1.0 Resende vs Nova Iguacu -8.7+0.7+3.8 -0.3+0.0+0.1 Vasco da Gama vs Boavista -4.6+5.0+7.8 -0.1+0.1+0.2 Resende vs Boavista -5.2+4.3+6.6 -0.2+0.1+0.2 Portuguesa vs Botafogo -9.2-0.7+2.2 -0.3-0.0+0.1 Portuguesa vs Madureira -6.6+2.3+4.8 -0.2+0.1+0.2 Flamengo vs Vasco da Gama +2.6-0.5-7.7 +0.1-0.0-0.2 Volta Redonda vs Flamengo -7.3-0.5+1.5 -0.3-0.0+0.1 Volta Redonda vs Nova Iguacu -6.3+0.3+2.1 -0.3-0.0+0.1 Bangu vs Botafogo -2.2*-0.0+0.2 -0.2-0.0+0.0 Bangu vs Macae -1.1+0.3+0.3 -0.1+0.0+0.0 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Week of 4/1 100.0* Chance in playoffs 100.0* Average seed Fluminense vs Flamengo +32.6+4.2-9.2 +1.1+0.2-0.3 Botafogo vs Resende +3.3+0.1-9.1 +0.1+0.0-0.3 Boavista vs Portuguesa +4.7+2.2-6.7 +0.2+0.1-0.2 Nova Iguacu vs Vasco da Gama +4.0+0.7-7.2 +0.1+0.0-0.2 Macae vs Volta Redonda +2.8+1.6-3.7 +0.2+0.1-0.2 Madureira vs Bangu +0.3+0.3-1.1 +0.0+0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

## What If

Chances based on how well the Fluminense finish out the regular season.   Explain

 100 100 100 100 100 100 If finish: Chance in Chance will finish regular season at seed TP W - D - L playoffs 1 2 3 4 5 6 Count 15 4 - 0 - 0 In 100 150,646 13 3 - 1 - 0 99.9 % 95 5 0 0 574,812 12 3 - 0 - 1 99.8 92 7 0 0 1,240,956 11 2 - 2 - 0 98.1 76 22 2 0 0 784,507 10 2 - 1 - 1 90.6 53 37 9 1 0 0 3,241,637 9 2 - 0 - 2 80.7 38 43 17 3 0 0 3,277,073 1 - 3 - 0 75.3 32 44 20 4 0 0 432,954 8 1 - 2 - 1 52.6 14 39 34 12 1 0 2,541,870 7 1 - 1 - 2 22.8 3 20 38 30 8 0 4,800,342 0 - 4 - 0 12.8 1 11 33 39 15 1 82,706 6 1 - 0 - 3 8.6 1 8 28 41 21 1 2,887,687 0 - 3 - 1 5.7 0 5 23 41 27 2 619,254 5 0 - 2 - 2 1.3 0 1 11 37 42 9 1,672,719 4 0 - 1 - 3 0.1 0 2 18 54 27 1,932,496 3 0 - 0 - 4 Out 3 54 43 814,973 Total: 45.5 % 24 21 19 17 14 4 25,054,632
Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

## Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

## Big Games

 Week of 3/23 100.0* Lottery seed Macae 1 Resende 2 +0.0 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Fluminense vs Macae -1.4+0.6+1.8 Madureira vs Fluminense +1.7+0.5-1.5 Botafogo vs Fluminense +0.8-0.2-2.1 Volta Redonda vs Flamengo +0.2+0.0-0.1 Flamengo vs Vasco da Gama -0.1+0.0+0.2 Portuguesa vs Madureira +0.1-0.1-0.0 Resende vs Nova Iguacu +0.2-0.1-0.1 Portuguesa vs Botafogo +0.2-0.0-0.0 Resende vs Boavista +0.0-0.1+0.0 Volta Redonda vs Nova Iguacu +0.2-0.0-0.0 Bangu vs Macae -0.0-0.1+0.1 Vasco da Gama vs Boavista +0.0-0.1+0.0 Bangu vs Botafogo +0.1-0.1+0.0 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Week of 4/1 100.0* Lottery seed Fluminense vs Flamengo -2.1-0.3+0.6 Botafogo vs Resende -0.0-0.1+0.2 Macae vs Volta Redonda +0.0-0.1+0.1 Nova Iguacu vs Vasco da Gama -0.1-0.1+0.1 Boavista vs Portuguesa +0.0-0.1+0.0 Madureira vs Bangu +0.1-0.1-0.0

## What If

 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 If finish: Chance will finish season at seed TP W - D - L 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 15 4 - 0 - 0 73 25 2 13 3 - 1 - 0 19 48 29 4 0 12 3 - 0 - 1 2 29 49 20 1 0 11 2 - 2 - 0 0 12 43 39 6 0 10 2 - 1 - 1 0 1 14 48 30 5 0 0 0 9 2 - 0 - 2 0 3 30 44 20 3 0 0 1 - 3 - 0 0 3 29 45 20 3 0 8 1 - 2 - 1 0 0 6 28 40 22 5 0 0 7 1 - 1 - 2 0 0 3 18 35 30 11 2 0 0 0 - 4 - 0 0 2 12 32 37 16 2 0 6 1 - 0 - 3 0 2 15 35 34 12 1 0 0 - 3 - 1 0 2 11 35 38 13 1 0 5 0 - 2 - 2 0 0 1 8 31 40 19 1 4 0 - 1 - 3 0 0 5 28 51 16 3 0 - 0 - 4 3 54 43 Total: 1 3 7 14 14 11 12 12 10 7 7 3