"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 3/23100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Macae 1 Resende 2 -4.7
-0.2
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Madureira vs Fluminense-22.9-10.6+21.4
-0.8-0.3+0.8
Fluminense vs Macae+20.8-11.0-23.2
+0.7-0.3-0.9
Botafogo vs Fluminense-11.6+1.9+31.1
-0.4+0.1+1.0
Resende vs Nova Iguacu-8.7+0.7+3.8
-0.3+0.0+0.1
Vasco da Gama vs Boavista-4.6+5.0+7.8
-0.1+0.1+0.2
Resende vs Boavista-5.2+4.3+6.6
-0.2+0.1+0.2
Portuguesa vs Botafogo-9.2-0.7+2.2
-0.3-0.0+0.1
Portuguesa vs Madureira-6.6+2.3+4.8
-0.2+0.1+0.2
Flamengo vs Vasco da Gama+2.6-0.5-7.7
+0.1-0.0-0.2
Volta Redonda vs Flamengo-7.3-0.5+1.5
-0.3-0.0+0.1
Volta Redonda vs Nova Iguacu-6.3+0.3+2.1
-0.3-0.0+0.1
Bangu vs Botafogo-2.2*-0.0+0.2
-0.2-0.0+0.0
Bangu vs Macae-1.1+0.3+0.3
-0.1+0.0+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 4/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Fluminense vs Flamengo+32.6+4.2-9.2
+1.1+0.2-0.3
Botafogo vs Resende+3.3+0.1-9.1
+0.1+0.0-0.3
Boavista vs Portuguesa+4.7+2.2-6.7
+0.2+0.1-0.2
Nova Iguacu vs Vasco da Gama+4.0+0.7-7.2
+0.1+0.0-0.2
Macae vs Volta Redonda+2.8+1.6-3.7
+0.2+0.1-0.2
Madureira vs Bangu+0.3+0.3-1.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Fluminense finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPW-D-Lplayoffs123456Count
154-0-0In100150,646
133-1-099.9%95500574,812
123-0-199.8927001,240,956
112-2-098.17622200784,507
102-1-190.6533791003,241,637
92-0-280.73843173003,277,073
1-3-075.3324420400432,954
81-2-152.614393412102,541,870
71-1-222.83203830804,800,342
0-4-012.8111333915182,706
61-0-38.61828412112,887,687
0-3-15.7052341272619,254
50-2-21.30111374291,672,719
40-1-30.1021854271,932,496
30-0-4Out35443814,973
Total:45.5%2421191714425,054,632
Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 3/23100.0*Lottery seed
Macae 1 Resende 2 +0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Fluminense vs Macae-1.4+0.6+1.8
Madureira vs Fluminense+1.7+0.5-1.5
Botafogo vs Fluminense+0.8-0.2-2.1
Volta Redonda vs Flamengo+0.2+0.0-0.1
Flamengo vs Vasco da Gama-0.1+0.0+0.2
Portuguesa vs Madureira+0.1-0.1-0.0
Resende vs Nova Iguacu+0.2-0.1-0.1
Portuguesa vs Botafogo+0.2-0.0-0.0
Resende vs Boavista+0.0-0.1+0.0
Volta Redonda vs Nova Iguacu+0.2-0.0-0.0
Bangu vs Macae-0.0-0.1+0.1
Vasco da Gama vs Boavista+0.0-0.1+0.0
Bangu vs Botafogo+0.1-0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 4/1100.0*Lottery seed
Fluminense vs Flamengo-2.1-0.3+0.6
Botafogo vs Resende-0.0-0.1+0.2
Macae vs Volta Redonda+0.0-0.1+0.1
Nova Iguacu vs Vasco da Gama-0.1-0.1+0.1
Boavista vs Portuguesa+0.0-0.1+0.0
Madureira vs Bangu+0.1-0.1-0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L123456789101112
154-0-073252
133-1-019482940
123-0-1229492010
112-2-0012433960
102-1-1011448305000
92-0-203304420300
1-3-00329452030
81-2-1006284022500
71-1-200318353011200
0-4-0021232371620
61-0-3021535341210
0-3-1021135381310
50-2-200183140191
40-1-3005285116
30-0-435443
Total:137141411121210773