"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 3/23100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Macae 1 Resende 2 -0.5
-0.2
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Bangu vs Botafogo+10.3+0.3-1.2
+1.1+0.1-0.1
Bangu vs Macae+5.2-1.1-1.7
+0.8-0.1-0.3
Vasco da Gama vs Boavista-0.6+0.6+1.0
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Resende vs Boavista-0.5+0.3+0.8
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Resende vs Nova Iguacu-0.8-0.1+0.4
-0.1-0.0+0.0
Madureira vs Fluminense+0.6+0.3-0.6
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Fluminense vs Macae-0.6+0.3+0.6
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Portuguesa vs Madureira-0.6+0.1+0.5
-0.1-0.0+0.1
Portuguesa vs Botafogo-0.8-0.2+0.3
-0.1-0.0+0.0
Botafogo vs Fluminense+0.3-0.1-0.8
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Flamengo vs Vasco da Gama+0.3-0.1-0.7
Volta Redonda vs Flamengo-0.7-0.1+0.2
-0.1-0.0+0.0
Volta Redonda vs Nova Iguacu-0.6*+0.0+0.2
-0.1-0.0+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 4/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Madureira vs Bangu-1.7-1.1+5.4
-0.3-0.1+0.8
Botafogo vs Resende+0.4-0.1-0.8
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Boavista vs Portuguesa+0.5+0.1-0.6
+0.1-0.0-0.1
Nova Iguacu vs Vasco da Gama+0.4+0.0-0.7
Fluminense vs Flamengo-0.8-0.1+0.2
-0.1-0.0+0.0
Macae vs Volta Redonda+0.3+0.2-0.4
+0.1+0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Bangu finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPW-D-Lplayoffs123456Count
103-0-086.2%4739122098,068
82-1-039.6930361950498,268
72-0-113.821230341841,299,175
61-2-01.70210293920750,206
51-1-10.40041943343,755,830
41-0-20.000532634,649,102
0-3-0Out01684344,373
1-3Out10013,659,610*
Total:2.0%0137157325,054,632

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 3/23100.0*Lottery seed
Macae 1 Resende 2 +0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Bangu vs Macae-1.7+0.1+0.7
Bangu vs Botafogo-1.9-0.2+0.3
Volta Redonda vs Nova Iguacu+0.1+0.0-0.1
Volta Redonda vs Flamengo+0.1+0.0-0.0
Resende vs Nova Iguacu+0.1+0.0-0.0
Fluminense vs Macae-0.0-0.0+0.1
Madureira vs Fluminense+0.1-0.0-0.0
Portuguesa vs Botafogo+0.1+0.0-0.0
Botafogo vs Fluminense-0.0+0.0+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 4/1100.0*Lottery seed
Madureira vs Bangu+0.6+0.1-1.7
Fluminense vs Flamengo+0.1+0.0-0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L123456789101112
103-0-002224725400
82-1-006273922500
72-0-100317353112200
61-2-001931401720
51-1-100183141172
41-0-2004234924
0-3-0195328
30-2-122771
20-1-2595
10-0-3100
Total:000012347111656