"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 5/28100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*World Cup Qualifying100.0*Average seed
Vanuatu 0 Solomon Islands 1 -28.5
-16.1
-1.3
Vanuatu 0 New Zealand 5 -8.6
-7.0
-0.4
Papua New Guinea 1 New Caledonia 1 -0.5
-0.7
-0.1
Tahiti 4 Samoa 0 -0.1
-0.3
New Zealand 3 Fiji 1 -0.1
+0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Solomon Islands vs Fiji-0.1-0.1+1.0
+1.7-1.8-7.5
+0.0-0.0-0.1
New Caledonia vs Samoa-0.2+0.9-0.1
+0.9-0.5-2.1
+0.1-0.1-0.2
Papua New Guinea vs Tahiti-0.2-0.1+0.2
-0.3-0.1+0.3
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 6/4100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*World Cup Qualifying100.0*Average seed
Fiji vs VanuatuOutOut+1.5
No-5.7+74.1
-0.5+0.1+1.5
Papua New Guinea vs Samoa-0.2+0.9-0.1
+0.4-0.8-2.7
+0.1-0.2-0.2
Tahiti vs New Caledonia+0.1-0.1-0.2
+0.5-0.1-1.4
New Zealand vs Solomon Islands+0.1-0.2-0.2
+0.2-0.3-0.3

What If

Chances based on how well the Vanuatu finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inWorld CupChance will finish regular season at seed
TPW-OTLTplayoffsQualifying12345678Count
31-0001.8%93.6%0229636011,258,818
10-001Out13.8014582810,882,445
00-010OutNo247639,575,745
Total:0.3%19.5%00514275461,717,008
Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs