Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Explain

100100100100100100100100
Chance will make playoffsWorld Cup QualifyingChance will finish regular season at seed
PGW-OTLTGD%Change%Change12345678Avg.ChangeRPI
New Zealand62-000799.2%+25.0Yes+6.6452323912.0+1.182New Zealand
Solomon Islands311-000173.4+1.494.1%+1.9221621141010513.3+0.013Solomon Islands
Fiji010-010-227.6+0.364.1+5.3271010172014225.6+0.081Fiji
Vanuatu00-020-61.9-27.038.9-22.602152218436.8-1.304Vanuatu

Big Games

Who should we root for?   Explain

Week of 5/28
Vanuatu 0 New Zealand 5
Tue100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*World Cup Qualifying100.0*Average seed
New Zealand+25.2
Yes
+1.2
Solomon Islands+1.8
+2.5
Fiji-0.9
+4.2
Vanuatu-27.0
-22.7
-1.3
New Zealand 3 Fiji 1
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*World Cup Qualifying100.0*Average seed
New Zealand+25.6
+19.4
+1.4
Solomon Islands-0.1
+0.1
Fiji-25.0
-19.0
-1.3
Vanuatu-0.1
+0.1
Vanuatu 0 Solomon Islands 1
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*World Cup Qualifying100.0*Average seed
New Zealand-0.2
+0.2
-0.0
Solomon Islands+25.5
+19.6
+1.4
Fiji+0.1
Vanuatu-24.9
-19.2
-1.3
Papua New Guinea 1 New Caledonia 1
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*World Cup Qualifying100.0*Average seed
New Zealand+0.7
+0.6
+0.1
Solomon Islands+0.9
+0.9
+0.1
Fiji+0.2
+0.7
Vanuatu+0.2
+0.4
Tahiti 4 Samoa 0
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*World Cup Qualifying100.0*Average seed
New Zealand-0.2
-0.1
-0.0
Solomon Islands-0.2
-0.2
-0.0
Fiji-0.1
Vanuatu-0.1
Solomon Islands vs FijiIf winner is:HomeTieAway
Tue100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*World Cup Qualifying100.0*Average seed
New ZealandInIn98.1
2.12.01.9
Solomon IslandsIn76.945.2
YesYes85.7
2.13.24.6
Fiji0.323.356.7
43.455.588.5
6.85.94.2
Vanuatu0.30.34.2
44.839.732.6
6.86.96.9
New Caledonia vs SamoaHomeTieAway
Wed100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*World Cup Qualifying100.0*Average seed
New Zealand99.199.899.1
2.11.82.0
Solomon Islands73.075.173.0
93.995.993.5
3.43.13.3
Fiji26.829.4*27.6
64.465.663.2
5.65.55.6
Vanuatu1.63.41.6
39.339.438.3
6.86.86.9
Papua New Guinea vs TahitiHomeTieAway
Wed100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*World Cup Qualifying100.0*Average seed
New Zealand99.299.899.1
1.91.82.1
Solomon Islands72.774.473.6
92.294.695.7
3.33.23.4
Fiji26.928.028.1
61.563.866.8
5.65.65.5
Vanuatu1.42.02.4
36.938.241.2
6.96.96.8
Week of 6/4
New Zealand vs Solomon IslandsIf winner is:HomeTieAway
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*World Cup Qualifying100.0*Average seed
New ZealandInIn98.1
1.11.73.0
Solomon Islands49.272.897.8
85.7YesYes
4.63.41.9
Fiji34.225.621.9
66.362.662.6
5.55.75.6
Vanuatu4.30.30.3
41.537.037.1
6.86.96.9
Fiji vs VanuatuHomeTieAway
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*World Cup Qualifying100.0*Average seed
New Zealand98.1InIn
2.11.91.9
Solomon Islands67.674.778.5
97.597.589.2
3.43.23.3
Fiji51.427.24.0
97.566.029.9
4.15.77.0
VanuatuOutOut4.7
No13.888.5
7.97.25.7
Papua New Guinea vs SamoaHomeTieAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*World Cup Qualifying100.0*Average seed
New Zealand99.199.899.1
2.11.82.0
Solomon Islands72.975.073.1
93.995.993.5
3.43.13.3
Fiji26.829.4*27.6
64.465.663.2
5.65.55.6
Vanuatu1.63.41.6
39.239.438.4
6.86.86.9
Tahiti vs New CaledoniaHomeTieAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*World Cup Qualifying100.0*Average seed
New Zealand99.199.899.2
2.11.81.9
Solomon Islands73.674.472.6
95.794.792.2
3.43.13.3
Fiji28.128.026.9
66.863.861.5
5.55.65.6
Vanuatu2.42.11.4
41.238.236.9
6.86.96.9

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.