Tampa Bay Lightning Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.6 to 71.9%

4 points 2 0-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Win Stanley Cup	100.0*	Pres Trophy
Detroit 3 Columbus 2 (ot)	-0.4
Florida 5 Chicago 4 (ot)	-0.4		*-0.0		*-0.0
Pittsburgh 5 Washington 4 (ot)					*+0.1
Los Angeles 2 Colorado 3					*-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Nashville vs Carolina	+0.1-0.5-0.3-0.3-0.5+0.2

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Win Stanley Cup	100.0*	Pres Trophy
Vancouver vs Montreal					+0.2+0.1-0.1-0.2*-0.1-0.1
Vegas vs Arizona					-0.1-0.1-0.0+0.1*+0.0+0.2
Toronto vs Edmonton					-0.1-0.0-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.1
Anaheim vs Minnesota					+0.1+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Division seed				Conference seed (wildcard race)
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1a	1b	2	3	WCb	WCa	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

88	-112						In		99.8	%	100														3,493	*
87		39	10		-	5	In		99.3		100	0													2,404	*
86		39	11		-	4	In		98.7		100	0	0												3,686	*
85		38	11		-	5	In		98.0		99	1	0												5,815	*
84		38	12		-	4	In		96.7		99	1	0												8,827	*
83		37	12		-	5	In		95.1		98	2	0												13,388	*
82		37	13		-	4	In		92.3		97	3	1												19,330	*
81		36	13		-	5	In		87.6		95	4	1	0											27,429	*
80		35	13		-	6	In		82.2		92	6	2												37,955	*
79		35	14		-	5	In		74.3		88	9	3	0											50,646	*
78		34	14		-	6	In		64.9		83	12	5	0											66,420	*
77		34	15		-	5	In		52.7		76	17	8	0											84,491	*
76		33	15		-	6	In		40.3		67	21	12	0	0										105,604	*
75		33	16		-	5	In		27.8		57	26	17	1	0										128,835	*
74		32	16		-	6	In		16.9		45	30	23	1	0										153,683	*
73		32	17		-	5	In		8.8		33	33	31	3	0										179,180	*
72		31	17		-	6	100.0	%	3.6		22	34	39	5	0		0								204,456	*
71		31	18		-	5	100.0		1.2		13	31	46	10	0		0								227,163	*
70		30	18		-	6	100.0		0.3		6	26	50	17	1	0	0								247,679	*
69		30	19		-	5	99.9		0.0		3	19	50	25	3	0	0	0							264,056	*
68		29	19		-	6	99.6		0.0		1	12	45	35	7	0	0	0							275,000	*
67		29	20		-	5	98.7		No		0	6	35	43	14	0	1	0							280,853	*
66		28	20		-	6	96.2		No		0	2	23	46	23	2	4	0	0						279,544	*
65		28	21		-	5	90.4		No		0	1	12	41	32	5	9	1	0	0					273,593	*
64		27	21		-	6	79.3		No			0	5	30	33	11	18	2	0	0					262,225	*
63		27	22		-	5	62.7		No			0	2	17	26	18	29	7	1	0	0				245,263	*
62		26	22		-	6	43.1		No			0	0	8	15	20	36	18	3	0	0				224,676	*
61		26	23		-	5	25.2		No				0	3	6	16	33	30	10	2	0	0			201,669	*
60		25	23		-	6	12.5		No				0	1	2	10	23	36	22	6	1	0	0		177,104	*
59		25	24		-	5	5.2		No				0	0	0	5	12	31	31	16	4	0	0		153,632	*
58		24	24		-	6	1.9		No				0	0	0	2	5	21	34	26	10	2	0		129,303	*
57		24	25		-	5	0.6		No				0	0	0	1	2	11	28	34	20	5	0		106,605	*
56		23	25		-	6	0.3		No					0		0	0	4	18	34	30	12	2		86,644	*
55		23	26		-	5	0.1		No					0		0	0	2	10	27	36	21	4		68,648	*
54		22	26		-	6	0.1		No					0		0	0	0	4	19	37	30	9		52,887	*
53		22	27		-	5	0.1		No					0		0	0	0	2	11	32	39	16		40,802	*
52		21	27		-	6	0.0		No							0		0	1	6	25	43	25		30,108	*
51		21	28		-	5	Out		No								0	0	0	3	18	43	36		22,130	*
50		20	28		-	6	0.0		No							0		0	0	1	11	40	47		15,670	*
49		20	29		-	5	Out		No									0	0	0	7	35	57		10,999	*
48		19	29		-	6	Out		No									0	0	0	4	29	67		7,619	*
47		19	30		-	5	Out		No											0	2	23	75		5,072	*
46		18	30		-	6	Out		No												1	17	82		3,347	*
45		18	31		-	5	Out		No												1	11	88		2,141	*
44		17	31		-	6	Out		No												0	10	90		1,358	*
43		17	32		-	5	Out		No												0	5	95		791	*
42		16	32		-	6	Out		No												0	5	95		509	*
41		16	33		-	5	Out		No													3	97		299	*
40		15	33		-	6	Out		No													3	97		139	*
39		14	33		-	7	Out		No													1	99		86	*
4	-38						Out		No														100		490	*

Total:							71.9	%	7.6	%	14	11	19	16	9	4	8	6	4	4	3	2	1		4,793,746

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season. Explain


If finish:									Chance will play in first round
TP		W		L	-	OT	Win Cup		Montreal	Calgary	Toronto	Florida	Carolina	Winnipeg	Nashville	Ottawa	Dallas	Detroit	Columbus	Vancouver	Edmonton	Chicago

112		54	0		-	0	7.3	%		1		18	16	0	14	0	15	17	10			9
98		46	6		-	2	No					Yes
96		44	6		-	4	25.0								75		25
95		44	7		-	3	13.0		9	9		4	4	4	13		17	9	13	4		13
94		43	7		-	4	5.1		3	5	10	10	15	3	10	13	5	3	3	3	10	8
93		42	7		-	5	9.8		2	7	5	10	11	7	13	3	16	5	8	3	2	8
92		42	8		-	4	11.8		3	2	8	9	12	6	12	6	10	10	4	6	6	7
91		41	8		-	5	7.6		3	3	5	9	12	5	11	8	8	12	7	6	5	6
90		41	9		-	4	6.8		3	4	5	9	13	6	11	6	11	10	9	5	4	4
89		40	9		-	5	9.6		4	4	4	8	10	8	11	7	10	9	9	5	6	6
88		40	10		-	4	10.7		4	5	7	10	10	8	11	7	9	8	7	4	6	5
87		39	10		-	5	9.8		5	6	7	10	9	7	9	7	10	9	7	5	5	5
86		39	11		-	4	10.1		5	5	7	9	9	7	9	6	9	8	7	6	6	5
85		38	11		-	5	10.0		5	6	6	9	9	7	9	8	9	8	7	7	5	5
84		38	12		-	4	9.9		6	6	6	9	9	8	9	8	8	8	7	6	7	5
83		37	12		-	5	9.7		6	6	8	8	9	8	8	8	8	7	6	7	7	5
82		37	13		-	4	9.9		6	6	8	8	9	8	8	8	8	7	6	6	6	4
81		36	13		-	5	9.7		6	6	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	7	6	7	7	4
80		35	13		-	6	9.7		6	6	8	8	8	9	8	8	8	7	6	7	7	4
79		35	14		-	5	10.1		6	6	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	7	6	7	6	4
78		34	14		-	6	9.9		6	7	7	8	9	8	9	8	8	7	6	6	6	4
77		34	15		-	5	9.9		6	6	7	9	9	8	9	8	9	7	6	6	6	4
76		33	15		-	6	9.8		6	6	7	10	10	7	10	7	9	8	6	6	6	4
75		33	16		-	5	9.6		5	6	6	10	11	7	10	7	10	8	6	5	5	4
74		32	16		-	6	9.6		5	5	6	12	12	6	12	6	10	8	6	4	4	4
73		32	17		-	5	9.4		4	4	5	13	13	5	13	5	11	9	7	3	3	4
72		31	17		-	6	9.1		3	3	4	15	15	4	14	4	12	10	7	3	3	4
71		31	18		-	5	9.0		3	3	3	16	16	3	15	3	13	10	7	2	2	4
70		30	18		-	6	8.6		2	2	2	18	17	2	16	2	14	10	8	1	1	4
69		30	19		-	5	8.5		2	2	2	18	18	2	17	1	15	11	8	1	1	4
68		29	19		-	6	8.2		2	2	1	19	18	1	17	1	15	11	8	1	1	4
67		29	20		-	5	8.0		2	2	2	18	18	1	17	1	14	11	7	0	0	4
66		28	20		-	6	7.5		3	3	2	17	17	2	16	1	13	10	7	1	1	3
65		28	21		-	5	7.0		4	4	3	15	15	2	14	2	12	8	6	1	1	3
64		27	21		-	6	6.1		5	5	4	13	12	3	11	2	9	6	4	1	1	2
63		27	22		-	5	4.8		5	5	4	10	10	3	8	2	7	4	3	1	1	1
62		26	22		-	6	3.2		4	4	3	7	7	2	6	1	4	3	2	0	0	1
61		26	23		-	5	1.9		2	2	2	5	4	1	3	1	3	1	1	0	0	0
60		26	24		-	4	0.9		1	1	1	3	2	0	2	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
59		25	24		-	5	0.4		0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
58		25	25		-	4	0.1		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
57		24	25		-	5	0.0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0			0
56		24	26		-	4	0.0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0	0			0
55		24	27		-	3	0.0					0	0		0		0	0	0			0
54		23	27		-	4	No					0	0		0		0	0	0			0
53		22	27		-	5	No					0	0		0		0	0	0			0
52		22	28		-	4	No					0	0		0			0	0			0
51		23	30		-	1	No
50		21	29		-	4	No						0
4	-49						No

Total:							6.2	%	3.0	3.0	2.8	11.2	11.0	2.6	10.2	2.4	8.9	6.6	4.7	1.5	1.5	2.5

Points (Full Screen)

Chance Will Make Playoffs (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Florida 5 Chicago 4 (ot)	+0.1
Detroit 3 Columbus 2 (ot)	+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Nashville vs Carolina	-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0

Wednesday	None

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31

95	-112						100
94		43	7		-	4	97	3
91	-93						100
90		41	9		-	4	100	0
89		40	9		-	5	100	0
88		40	10		-	4	100	0
87		39	10		-	5	99	0	0
86		39	11		-	4	99	1	0		0
85		38	11		-	5	98	1	1		0
84		38	12		-	4	97	2	1		0
83		37	12		-	5	95	3	2		0
82		37	13		-	4	92	4	3	0	1
81		36	13		-	5	88	7	4	0	1				0
80		35	13		-	6	82	10	6	0	2	0	0
79		35	14		-	5	74	14	9	0	3	0			0
78		34	14		-	6	65	18	12	0	5	0	0		0
77		34	15		-	5	53	23	16	0	8	0	0		0
76		33	15		-	6	40	27	20	1	11	0	0		0				0
75		33	16		-	5	28	29	24	2	16	1	0		1	0	0		0
74		32	16		-	6	17	28	26	5	20	2	1		1	0	0		0
73		32	17		-	5	9	25	25	8	24	4	2	0	3	0	0		0
72		31	17		-	6	4	18	22	12	25	8	5	0	5	0	0		0				0
71		31	18		-	5	1	12	16	16	22	14	9	0	9	0	0		0	0			0
70		30	18		-	6	0	6	9	17	16	19	14	2	14	2	1	0	1	0	0		0
69		30	19		-	5	0	3	4	15	8	20	17	5	19	4	2	0	3	0	0		0	0
68		29	19		-	6	0	1	1	10	3	16	16	10	20	10	5	0	7	0	0	0	0	0
67		29	20		-	5		0	0	6	1	9	10	14	15	18	10	1	13	2	0	0	1	0	0
66		28	20		-	6		0	0	2	0	4	5	14	7	21	13	5	18	5	2	0	4	0	0
65		28	21		-	5		0	0	1	0	1	1	10	2	16	12	10	18	14	5	0	8	1	0	0	0
64		27	21		-	6				0		0	0	5	0	8	7	14	11	22	9	2	15	5	1	0	0	0
63		27	22		-	5				0		0	0	2	0	3	2	12	4	22	11	7	18	13	5	1	0	0	0
62		26	22		-	6				0		0		0		1	0	7	1	14	8	12	14	20	14	6	2	0	0	0
61		26	23		-	5								0		0	0	3	0	6	3	13	7	17	21	16	9	3	1	0	0	0	0
60		25	23		-	6								0		0	0	1	0	2	1	9	2	8	17	22	19	12	5	2	0	0	0	0	0
59		25	24		-	5								0		0		0		0	0	4	0	2	7	15	21	22	15	8	3	1	0	0	0
58		24	24		-	6								0				0		0	0	2	0	0	2	6	13	20	23	19	11	5	1	0	0	0
57		24	25		-	5								0				0		0	0	1	0	0	0	1	4	10	18	23	21	13	6	2	0	0	0
56		23	25		-	6												0				0			0	0	1	3	9	17	23	22	15	7	2	0	0
55		23	26		-	5												0				0			0	0	0	1	3	9	17	24	24	15	6	1	0
54		22	26		-	6												0				0					0	0	1	3	9	18	25	24	14	5	1
53		22	27		-	5												0				0					0	0	0	1	3	10	20	28	24	12	2
52		21	27		-	6																0							0	0	1	4	12	25	30	21	6
51		21	28		-	5																							0	0	0	1	6	18	31	31	12
50		20	28		-	6																0									0	0	3	10	27	37	22
49		20	29		-	5																									0	0	1	5	20	40	33
48		19	29		-	6																										0	0	3	13	38	46
47		19	30		-	5																											0	1	8	33	57
46		18	30		-	6																											0	0	5	27	67
45		18	31		-	5																											0	0	2	19	78
44		17	31		-	6																													1	16	82
43		17	32		-	5																													1	9	91
42		16	32		-	6																													0	8	92
41		16	33		-	5																														5	95
40		15	33		-	6																														6	94
39		14	33		-	7																														1	99
4	-38																																				100

Total:							8	6	6	5	6	5	4	4	5	5	3	3	4	5	2	2	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1