San Jose Sharks Playoff Chances

Losing to Boston 3-4 (7:00 3rd), playoff odds up 0.1 to 76.5%
9 points   4 1-1

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Chicago 3 Philadelphia 0 -0.2
NY Islanders 2 Toronto 5 +0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Boston vs San Jose-3.6*-0.0-0.3+3.2+3.3+3.3
-0.3*-0.0*-0.0+0.2+0.3+0.3
-1.5-0.3-0.3+1.3+1.4+1.4
Calgary vs Tampa Bay-0.3-0.3*-0.1*+0.0*+0.0+0.5
Nashville vs Arizona+0.2*-0.2*-0.1-0.4-0.4*-0.1
-0.1*-0.1*-0.1*+0.1*-0.0+0.1
Winnipeg vs Carolina-0.2*-0.1-0.3*+0.1*+0.0+0.3
Colorado vs Florida-0.1*-0.0*-0.2*+0.1*+0.0+0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Edmonton vs Washington-0.3-0.3*-0.1*-0.0*+0.1+0.3
+0.1*-0.0*-0.0*-0.1-0.2-0.1
Anaheim vs Buffalo-0.1*-0.1*-0.1*+0.0*+0.0+0.3
-0.1*+0.0*+0.0*+0.0*+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the San Jose finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
124-161In99.8%1001,269*
1235315-8In99.31000609*
1225215-9In99.41001,047*
1215216-8In99.4100001,530*
1205116-9In98.9100002,146*
1195117-8In97.999103,238*
1185118-7In96.898114,571*
1175018-8In95.198116,687*
1165019-7In92.896219,081*
1154919-8In89.39442012,271*
1144920-7In84.69253016,209*
1134820-8In78.88975021,452*
1124720-9In71.28596027,448*
1114721-8In63.580128034,880*
1104621-9In53.5741511043,424*
1094622-8In42.86520141052,683*
1084522-9In31.95723191063,793*
1074523-8In22.14927232075,449*
1064423-9In13.93930283087,892*
1054424-8In7.6303233500100,515*
1044324-9In3.6213338700112,589*
1034325-8In1.41432421110125,360*
1024225-9100.0%0.59294515200136,509*
1014226-8100.00.15264620300146,087*
1004126-9100.00.022145265000155,487*
994127-899.90.011642319100161,385*
984027-999.8No011373613200164,610*
974028-899.3No083139175100166,300*
963928-998.2No0525392092000165,792*
953929-895.4No03193723144100161,809*
943829-989.9No011333222082000155,301*
933830-881.2No18281924144100146,658*
923730-968.4No05221526219200137,769*
913731-853.3No0316102426155100126,306*
903631-937.8No011161929229200115,203*
893632-824.1No017313272816510102,970*
883532-914.0No0041822302392090,105*
873533-87.2No0214162929154077,704*
863433-93.5No0102102432227166,589*
853434-81.5No0101618322912255,747*
843334-90.5No0000312283419446,102*
833335-80.2No00018233626637,666*
823235-90.1No00041735321130,392*
813236-80.0No00021231381623,886*
803136-90.0No0001826432318,702*
793137-8OutNo00421433114,269*
783037-9OutNo0315424010,932*
773038-8OutNo011240478,164*
762938-9OutNo01737555,818*
752939-8OutNo00632624,338*
742839-9OutNo0325712,992*
732840-8OutNo0223752,174*
722740-9OutNo118811,429*
712741-8OutNo113861,031*
702742-7OutNo01288660*
692642-8OutNo0990463*
682542-9OutNo595288*
672543-8OutNo1793198*
662443-9OutNo595142*
652444-8OutNo29862*
642344-9OutNo29844*
632446-6OutNo10029*
622245-9OutNo99111*
612145-10OutNo11899*
9-60OutNo100285*
Total:76.5%6.6%12112118876554213,346,560

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the San Jose finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupChicagoAnaheimNashvilleLos AngelesMinnesotaDallasSt. LouisCalgaryVancouverArizonaWinnipegColoradoEdmonton
161760-012.3%561279910986973
137619-6NoYes
1345910-7NoYes
1336012-450.025252525
1325912-5No333333
1315711-828.629291429
1305712-714.31410101010105145105
1295713-69.493161399691663
1285512-95.96110371510101312614
1275614-69.54116869612146655
1265514-74.971061567610107864
1255414-86.68955788111010776
1245415-78.8666610119111010555
1235315-89.77771169812107745
1225215-910.56879810810910745
1215216-87.678797988109754
1205116-98.577698981099655
1195117-87.8687988811119655
1185118-78.5677989810119655
1175018-88.05869899111010655
1165019-77.9687988810109655
1154919-88.76869888111010655
1144920-78.268610888111010555
1134820-88.55871078810109655
1124720-98.36861178811119555
1114721-88.16961178811119545
1104621-98.45961178811119545
1094622-88.051061277712119545
1084522-98.051161367712129445
1074523-87.951251467713129434
1064423-97.851351566613129434
1054424-87.841451656614129334
1044324-97.841541755514139324
1034325-87.5417418444151310224
1024225-97.2318418444151310224
1014226-87.2319319333151410214
1004126-96.9319320333161410114
994127-86.8320320333161410114
984027-96.6420320333161410113
974028-86.542041933315149113
963928-96.352041933315139113
953929-86.162051843313128103
943829-95.671951643312107103
933830-85.17175144331096002
923730-94.1714512433875002
913731-83.361149322653001
903631-92.34836222432001
893632-81.53524111321000
883532-90.92312111111000
873533-80.51211000110000
863433-90.20101000000000
853434-80.10000000000000
843435-70.0000000000000
833234-100.0000000000
823134-110.000000000
813337-6No00000
803439-3No00
9-79No
Total:5.4%4.013.63.713.23.43.23.210.69.56.81.41.22.7
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Boston vs San Jose+0.9+0.0+0.1-0.7-0.8-0.8
Calgary vs Tampa Bay+0.1+0.1+0.0*-0.0-0.0-0.1
Nashville vs Arizona-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Anaheim vs Buffalo+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
128-161100
1275614-6991
125-126100
1245415-71000
1235315-89900
1225215-9991
1215216-899000
1205116-999100
1195117-898110
1185118-797211
1175018-895311
1165019-793321
1154919-8895420
1144920-78575030
1134820-8791070500
1124720-97114906000
1114721-863161208000
1104621-9532015011000
1094622-843231901400100
1084522-93225221171010
1074523-822262522111200
1064423-91425264243203000
1054424-88222662553050000
1044324-94182492586070000
1034325-811320122112901000100
1024225-9081514161513113112000
1014226-805101610181721632030000
1004126-90261551719417530500000
994127-80131321419715960811000
984027-90110110161111131001112000
974028-800706111471614213450100
963928-900503616315174137812000
953929-80030131511216911121224100
943829-9001011108121471614682000
933830-8010080471731712121251000
923730-90000502317114818141151000
913731-800031114010420121511520000
903631-90001001106118815171372100
893632-80100703013310171915831000
883532-90000401081411192117941000
873533-80002104015122022181041000
863433-901002002513212418103100
853434-8010100026142224189310
843334-9000000027152325178200
833335-80000012817252415610
823235-9000013102027231230
813236-80000151324282071
803136-90000027182827143
793137-80013122432226
783037-9001719333011
773038-801313293518
762938-9019244026
752939-815204233
742839-902144044
732840-801103653
722740-9082963
712741-8042372
702742-7022375
692642-821881
682542-901387
672543-811287
662443-9694
652444-8397
642344-9991
632446-6100
622245-9991
612145-101189
9-60100
Total:756565655444443432222222211110