Calgary Flames Playoff Chances

Tied with San Jose 0-0 (4:22 1st), playoff odds down 0.7 to 75.4%
28 points   13 8-2

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Edmonton 0 New Jersey 2 +0.1
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Calgary 5 New Jersey 4 (so)+2.1
+0.1
+0.4
Tampa Bay 2 Minnesota 1 +0.2
Ottawa 2 St. Louis 3 -0.2
Dallas 5 Los Angeles 4 +0.2
Colorado 4 Carolina 3 -0.1
Edmonton 1 Chicago 7 -0.1
Nashville 3 Florida 2 (so)*-0.1
NY Islanders 4 Pittsburgh 1 +0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Calgary finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
123-146In99.4%100790*
122449-6In96.11000309*
1214410-5In92.49911525*
1204310-6In88.89811973*
1194311-5In85.097211,640*
1184211-6In80.696312,506*
1174212-5In72.293524,067*
1164112-6In65.7917306,331*
1154113-5In56.98610409,546*
1144013-6In47.482135013,951*
1134014-5In37.076178019,794*
1123914-6In27.76821100027,922*
1113814-7In19.36026141038,388*
1103815-6In12.05030181051,037*
1093715-7In6.84134232067,140*
1083716-6In3.33136294085,478*
1073616-7In1.5223735600107,016*
1063617-6In0.5153740910130,514*
1053517-7In0.2934431210155,969*
1043518-6In0.0530461720182,975*
1033418-7In0.0324472330208,224*
1023419-6100.0%0.01194529600233,642*
1013319-7100.0No01441359100256,101*
1003320-699.9No09364013100275,672*
993220-799.8No06294318300291,040*
983221-699.2No042344227100299,974*
973121-797.9No0217422511200303,399*
963122-694.9No112392618500301,269*
953022-789.6No083424249100292,190*
943023-680.9No0527202916300279,716*
932923-769.1No0321153123710259,584*
922924-655.3No011510293013200239,351*
912824-740.8No01116243420500214,879*
902825-627.6No0073183528910188,636*
892725-717.2No00411232341530162,924*
882726-69.8No0217253722500138,927*
872626-75.2No0104193729910115,090*
862627-62.5No0102123335152093,412*
852527-71.0No00172738224074,880*
842528-60.4No00042038298058,608*
832428-70.1No000213353513145,277*
822429-60.0No0019304019133,794*
812329-70.0No0005244226325,067*
802330-60.0No003184134518,299*
792230-7OutNo02123841712,888*
782231-6OutNo0183347128,889*
772131-7OutNo042752166,167*
762132-6OutNo032054234,075*
752032-7OutNo11554302,778*
742033-6OutNo011052371,725*
731933-7OutNo1651431,117*
721934-6OutNo054352668*
711834-7OutNo024058381*
701835-6OutNo32769233*
691735-7OutNo12278143*
681736-6OutNo168498*
671737-5OutNo188238*
661637-6OutNo158520*
651638-5OutNo138816*
28-64OutNo100458*
Total:75.4%1.2%59192311109752105,356,520

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Calgary finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupNashvilleSt. LouisAnaheimVancouverLos AngelesChicagoMinnesotaWinnipegSan JoseDallasColoradoArizonaEdmonton
146590-06.1%36610139171410651
130507-2NoYes
129486-5No5050
128487-4No38252513
127477-5No9918279189
126478-411.812121824121266
125468-511.6259121452116575
124458-62.41559169111316555
123459-58.375661210151497341
122449-64.236610129121613742
1214410-57.836891381314148330
1204310-64.7569101081513106530
1194311-56.036891091414126520
1184211-67.346891291313135530
1174212-56.6468101181413126430
1164112-65.9468101281413126430
1154113-55.8468111291313126420
1144013-65.6469111291312125430
1134014-55.9469121381312115430
1123914-66.04611121481211115330
1113814-75.84612141481110105320
1103815-65.94513151671110104320
1093715-75.6451516177108104220
1083716-65.43516181879893220
1073616-75.43518192068793210
1063617-65.33420212157682110
1053517-75.33421222256582110
1043518-65.13323232345481110
1033418-75.03324252444381110
1023419-64.83325252534281110
1013319-74.83326262533281010
1003320-64.64326262533170010
993220-74.55426252532170010
983221-64.46525252432170010
973121-74.37625232342160010
963122-64.19723222142150010
953022-73.910721191942050010
943023-63.411818161652040000
932923-73.011715131342030000
922924-62.49612101042020000
912824-71.77597731010000
902825-61.15465521010000
892725-70.73243311000000
882726-60.42122210000000
872626-70.21111100000000
862627-60.100100000000
852527-70.0000000000000
842528-60.0000000000
832428-70.0000000000
822429-6No0000
812430-5No000
802128-10No0
28-79No
Total:3.5%5.34.417.316.816.63.53.01.85.00.70.40.70.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

FridayNone
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Calgary 5 New Jersey 4 (so)-0.5
Dallas 5 Los Angeles 4 -0.1
San Jose 3 Arizona 4 (so)*-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
126-146100
125457-7982
124458-6991
123459-5982
122449-69640
1214410-592611
1204310-6891011
1194311-5851221
1184211-6811531
1174212-572215020
1164112-666257030
1154113-557301004000
1144013-64734130500
1134014-537391617000
1123914-62840192100000
1113814-719402241310100
1103815-612382461621100
1093715-7734259193102000
1083716-63272313206303000
1073616-712120182095050000
1063617-6014152118138080010
1053517-709112314161211110100
1043518-60572391816215210200
1033418-70342051819517330300
1023419-601217215199186506000
1013319-701131111713161090901000
1003320-600906131612131511211000
993220-7006038187152021533000
983221-60040251731423416660100
973121-7002012141112381411101200
963122-60101110720121115153510
953022-70000704151571717782000
943023-600040210163171613145100
932923-7000301515113121918103100
922924-60010312097221816720000
912824-700101906321152115620000
902825-6000006031171021211351000
892725-7000040101151523211251000
882726-6002107291925211141000
872626-700100414122226199200
862627-6001002016152526167200
852527-7001002819272413510
842528-600000141122282110200
832428-70000015152628186100
822429-600002820292512300
812329-70001413253120610
802330-60001719302713200
792230-7001311263320610
782231-600162033271020
772131-70031329341740
762132-6001722362561
752032-7004163532121
742033-602113235163
731933-7152638265
721934-6031739338
711834-70211353616
701835-625374115
691735-713224430
681736-62215126
671737-53116324
661637-6153550
651638-5133850
641538-63863
631640-35050
621540-4100
611440-55050
28-60100
Total:133634565585555544333221110000