Calgary Flames Playoff Chances

Beat Florida 4-2, playoff odds up 8.1 to 71.5%
68 points   32 26-4

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy
Florida 2 Calgary 4 +7.3
Dallas 5 Arizona 2 -0.1
Washington 2 Edmonton 1 *No
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy
Los Angeles vs Anaheim-2.0-2.2-1.9+0.5+0.5+3.1
Nashville vs Washington-1.5-1.5-1.3-0.1-0.1+1.2
Vancouver vs San Jose-0.2-0.2-0.2+0.0+0.0+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Calgary finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
108200-0In0.0%29340290,696
107190-1InNo1881105,593
106191-0InNo08020033,145*
105181-1InNo0692910121,287*
104171-2InNo0573930423,631*
103172-1InNo04449701,171,185*
102162-2InNo031541403,035,440*
101163-1InNo0205524106,757,926*
100153-2InNo01151343014,116,085*
99154-1InNo0642458026,333,994*
98144-2100.0%No33152140046,319,936*
97134-3100.0No12055240074,150,802*
96135-2100.0No012523510112,361,680*
95125-3100.0No064447300156,808,024*
94126-299.9No033555700112,103,816
115-499.9No03345670095,703,475*
93116-399.4No0124591510119,302,860
127-199.5No0125591410136,277,408*
92117-298.3No00165724200158,566,078
106-497.9No00155626200140,482,121*
91107-394.6No0094838500153,185,877
118-195.0No0094937500173,078,559*
90108-289.1No005384711000178,122,147
97-487.5No004354812000161,001,192*
8998-376.1No02235223100206,679,754*
109-180.8No003275119100122,771,237
8899-265.1No01154932200160,151,040
88-462.2No01134835300145,097,423*
8789-346.4No0074046700124,077,967
910-148.3No0074145600140,356,684*
86810-231.7No00329541410218,569,308*
85710-317.8No00117562420078,732,632
811-119.4No00118552320090,040,450*
84711-29.6No0095034600124,347,847*
83611-34.2No0044044121085,314,226*
82612-21.5No0022848202055,818,124*
81512-30.5No0001747305033,829,839*
80513-20.1No0010404010019,546,196*
79514-10.0No0053146180010,371,987*
78414-20.0No02214828005,238,271*
77415-10.0No01134640102,397,340*
76315-2OutNo073952201,043,938*
75316-1OutNo03306340403,477*
74216-2OutNo0121707148,604*
73217-1OutNo0014741246,370*
72117-2OutNo08731913,870*
71118-1OutNo0570253,145*
70119-0OutNo36334720*
69019-1OutNo6337118
68020-0OutNo0044550289,736
Total:71.5%0.0%00213292720720003,495,043,260

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Calgary finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupMinnesotaChicagoSan JoseEdmontonAnaheimSt. LouisNashvilleLos AngelesWinnipegDallasVancouverArizona
108200-00.7%071856692100
107190-10.5092351582000
106191-00.600928495720000
105181-10.601132444620000
104171-20.6001336403520000
103172-10.6001641353410000
102162-20.6001844322310000
101163-10.5002146291210000
100153-20.5002348271110000
99154-10.5002548250110000
98144-20.5002847240010000
97134-30.5003245220010000
96135-20.5103742190010000
124-40.5103741190010000
95125-30.5304237160000000
136-10.5304238160000000
94126-20.5714633130000000
115-40.5814631130000000
137-00.5714633130000000
93116-30.51514726100000000
127-10.51214728110000000
105-50.51714724100000000
92117-20.4232442180000000
106-40.426243197000000
128-00.4202452380000000
91107-30.4353371450000000
118-10.4333391660000000
96-50.438334125000000
90108-20.443329104000000
97-40.34532693000000
119-00.44332910400000
8998-30.3474186200000
109-10.3474217200000
87-50.347416520000
8899-20.245312310000
88-40.243310310000
1010-00.245312310000
8789-30.23636110000
910-10.23736210000
86810-20.12623100000
85710-30.11611000000
84711-20.0810000000
83712-10.0400000000
82612-20.010000000
81613-10.00000000
80513-20.000000000
79514-10.0000000
78414-20.00000
77415-1No0
68-76No
Total:0.3%25.11.924.014.36.00.00.00.10.00.00.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday100.0*Lottery seed
Florida 2 Calgary 4 -0.8
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Nashville vs Washington+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1
Los Angeles vs Anaheim+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
108200-00293003100
107190-1187005600
106191-00791081200
105181-1067209210100
104171-205430931003000
103172-103940841007000
102162-2026506480014000
101163-10155451102300010
100153-2074246203320030
99154-10331374041400700
98144-212024604570014000
97134-3010137042121024000
96135-2000660341520351000
95125-30002402316504721000
94126-20001214128055420000
115-40000213129056530000
93116-3000016711059781000
127-10000177110597700000
92117-2000003310057817100000
106-4000003310056819200000
91107-300001170486323200000
118-1000117049631310000
90108-20000050383434420000
97-40000040353455531000
8998-300002023151487300000
109-100000202515048730000
8899-2000010150493913820000
88-40001130482914930000
8789-300007040161618930000
910-100007041161617920000
86810-20000302903122220920000
85710-30001017016182720820000
811-10001018016182619820000
84711-200090021023281971000
83611-30040004142728175100
82612-200200015172928144100
81512-30000001720312611300
80513-200000210243223810
79514-100000031429321740
78414-200001620353090
77415-100002102939190
76315-200041942331
75316-10011138473
74216-200529606
73217-1002196811
72117-201117018
71118-1066924
70119-046333
69019-16436
68020-00045550
Total:00000021063402922523455432110000