Calgary Flames Playoff Chances

Tied with Buffalo 1-1 (20:00 3rd), playoff odds down 0.4 to 58.9%
55 points   25 16-5

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Monday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup
Toronto 2 Colorado 4 -0.5
Chicago 0 Tampa Bay 2 +0.4
Minnesota 3 Ottawa 1 -0.4
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Calgary vs Buffalo+3.1+3.2+2.1-3.7-3.8-9.7
+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.1*-0.1-0.3
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup
Vancouver vs Los Angeles+1.8+0.5+0.5-0.8-1.1-1.1
+0.1*+0.0*+0.0*+0.0*-0.0-0.0
Anaheim vs NY Rangers-0.8-0.7-0.7+0.3+0.4+1.2
San Jose vs Winnipeg-0.7-0.7-0.7*-0.1*+0.0+1.0
St. Louis vs Ottawa-0.4-0.5-0.3+0.4+0.3+1.0
Dallas vs Florida-0.4-0.4-0.3+0.3*+0.2+0.9
Montreal vs Colorado+0.5+0.3*+0.2-0.3-0.4-0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Calgary finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
119-127In98.8%100486*
118303-3In68.9952361*
117304-2In54.184412122*
116294-3In37.977517306*
115295-2In30.568824681*
114285-3In18.056103301,413*
113275-4In11.247124002,743*
112276-3In6.536154805,163*
111266-4In2.927165619,044*
110267-3In1.11817642015,671*
109257-4In0.41115713024,964*
108258-3In0.1613756038,943*
107248-4In0.0311779058,924*
106249-3In0.01876141084,038*
105239-4InNo05732010115,830*
1042310-3100.0%No036827200154,545*
1032210-4100.0No026034400197,342*
1022211-399.9No0151407100243,199*
1012111-499.7No004146102000290,882*
1002112-398.8No0324912510334,228*
992012-496.2No024491310300372,078*
982013-390.5No0164712158200400,334*
971913-480.4No0114391815400414,889*
961813-566.5No0736618221010417,557*
951814-450.2No04293152718400405,853*
941714-534.6No2211102728910383,285*
931715-422.2No1150623351720351,227*
921615-513.0No0100317372760308,907*
911616-47.2No06011134361100265,327*
901516-53.8No0300628431910219,423*
891517-41.9No0200320442920175,866*
881417-50.9No010113414040137,228*
871418-40.4No00007354980102,970*
861419-30.2No004275514075,053*
851319-40.1No002195721152,736*
841320-30.0No001125629236,080*
831220-40.0No00075138323,784*
821221-3OutNo044446515,056*
811121-40.0No002375299,417*
801122-3OutNo12957135,580*
791022-4OutNo02061183,239*
781023-3OutNo01460261,797*
77923-4OutNo0115634941*
76924-3OutNo45244479*
75824-4OutNo444520285*
74825-3OutNo128692111*
73725-4OutNo316961*
72726-3OutNo2274423*
71727-2OutNo38638*
69628-2OutNo1003*
55036-0OutNo496462
Total:58.9%0.0%0119275710121071005,758,644

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Calgary finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupVegasNashvilleWinnipegColoradoSan JoseDallasLos AngelesSt. LouisMinnesotaAnaheimChicagoEdmontonVancouverArizona
127360-04.1%02512101310212134
122310-5NoYes
120323-1No1414431414
119313-2No1925136136666
118303-33.3531371516231332
117304-26.61468151411151592
116294-32.93612161118131363
115295-22.102410201418111154
114285-33.002492211211210630
113275-43.41248279211096300
112276-33.412383192387620
111266-43.012263572576620
110267-32.8212539628556100
109257-43.0212443429446100
108258-32.9312345331336100
107248-42.74112472332260000
106249-32.6411150233116000
105239-42.65111511331160000
1042310-32.5511151133106000
1032210-42.56211511330060000
1022211-32.46221500320060000
2110-52.4632149032006000
1012111-42.48421480310050000
2212-22.58421480310050000
1002112-32.310531450280050000
2011-52.410531450290050000
992012-42.312741410260050000
1911-62.213741400260050000
982013-32.115741370230040000
1912-52.115741360220040000
971913-41.816741310190030000
1812-61.816741300180030000
961914-31.515631260150030000
1813-51.515531240140020000
951814-41.112421190110020000
941815-30.8821014080010000
931715-40.5511010050010000
921716-30.321006030000000
911616-40.2100040200000
901617-30.100002010000
891517-40.0000011000
881518-30.0000010000
871418-40.0000000
861419-30.00000
851319-4No00
841320-3No00
831220-4No00
821322-1No
811121-4No0
55-80No
Total:1.4%7.73.11.80.725.70.416.10.30.22.80.00.10.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Monday100.0*Lottery seed
Minnesota 3 Ottawa 1 +0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Calgary vs Buffalo-0.4-0.4-0.3+0.5+0.5+1.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Vancouver vs Los Angeles-0.2-0.1-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1
San Jose vs Winnipeg+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.2
Anaheim vs NY Rangers+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
St. Louis vs Ottawa+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
127360-01000
120-122100
119313-26931
118303-3692623
117304-25430412
116294-33840517
115295-2313782220
114285-31838102940
113275-411361234600
112276-3730150361210
111266-4324160371821
110267-31171613525420
109257-40111413132803000
108258-30612124371405000
107248-4039117382209000
106249-301621134310130110
105239-4041527400171210
1042310-30212194512015200
1032210-4011111462212110400
1022211-30010541518319070100
1012111-4000023271332901002000
1002112-3000123983380120510
992012-40000141042431130100300
982013-300079114221201508200
971913-400038013759118015400
961813-500150028851180221010
951814-4003001810211412718400
941714-50201011119127281010
931715-40151000422234183000
921615-50027001115342881000
911616-40015000182835174100
901516-5003000317342711300
891517-4002000182532219200
881417-50010003142829186100
871418-4000001518292814400
861419-300002821312510200
851319-4000312273219610
841320-30001518322913300
831220-400029253422710
821221-30041633311330
811121-40029243423710
801122-30041632321220
791022-401927362150
781023-304183630101
77923-42123036173
76924-3062534296
75824-41163435131
74825-3143240231
73725-45204926
72726-34173543
71727-2136325
69628-26733
55036-0991
Total:00101311441184507010118532110000000