Calgary Flames Playoff Chances

Beat Toronto 4-3, playoff odds up 2.9 to 20.2%
51 points   24 25-3

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy
Calgary 4 Toronto 3 +2.9
Philadelphia 1 Anaheim 4 -1.0
Nashville 3 Washington 5 +0.5
Chicago 0 San Jose 2 -0.3
*No
Colorado 1 Vancouver 3 +0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy
Arizona vs Vancouver+0.3-0.4-0.3-0.5-0.5-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Calgary finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
111300-0In0.4%67321144,912
110290-1InNo1002
109291-0InNo45361811*
108281-1InNo20612046*
107271-2InNo176914231*
106272-1InNo1169200838*
105262-2InNo5672702,945*
104252-3InNo3623418,966*
103253-2InNo153442024,396*
102243-3InNo043534063,316*
101244-2InNo0335970151,937*
100234-3InNo02463120338,164*
99235-2InNo017641800711,858*
98225-3InNo0116226101,407,672*
97215-4100.0%No0656353002,637,395*
96216-3100.0No348445004,675,766*
95206-4100.0No2385181007,891,642*
94207-399.9No1295513200012,677,491*
93197-499.5No0205618500019,453,522*
92198-398.2No013542110200028,518,527*
91188-494.7No08482217500040,003,214*
90189-387.3No0439192511200053,767,344*
89179-474.7No0230142919510069,314,895*
881710-357.5No0121927281220085,716,305*
871610-438.7No001342133226100101,906,758*
861611-322.4No008213313113200116,377,673*
851511-411.0No0416243623610127,851,138*
841512-34.5No02031433331320135,047,137*
831412-41.6No0101725382350137,330,572*
821413-30.5No00003163634110134,343,251*
811313-40.1No0000182941201126,578,225*
801314-30.0No0000042043312114,755,148*
791214-40.0No000011239435100,235,255*
781215-30.0No0000631521084,195,197*
771115-40.0No0000322581768,103,634*
761116-30.0No000114592652,972,199*
751016-40.0No00008563639,653,354*
741017-3OutNo005494628,513,524*
73917-4OutNo002415619,710,970*
72918-3OutNo01336613,063,924*
71818-4OutNo0026748,325,182*
70819-3OutNo0019815,069,438*
69719-4OutNo013872,961,637*
68720-3OutNo09911,650,337*
67620-4OutNo0694881,631*
66621-3OutNo0496446,697*
65622-2OutNo298215,873*
64522-3OutNo19998,812*
63523-2OutNo19942,943*
62423-3OutNo010017,564*
61424-2OutNo01006,695*
60324-3OutNo01002,447*
51-59OutNo100146,110*
Total:20.2%0.0%002937101316171761,748,014,720

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Calgary finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupChicagoDallasLos AngelesSt. LouisSan JoseAnaheimMinnesotaNashvilleColoradoVancouverArizonaWinnipegEdmonton
111300-01.2%00167201420187350
110290-1No5050
109291-0No9918279189
108281-12.22241517201174
107271-20.439192391611632
106272-11.30282222111411531
105262-21.2003628221013104220
104252-31.00045322191294220
103253-20.9005538218974210
102243-31.0006444206864210
101244-20.9008348205643210
100234-30.9009252204433210
99235-20.90011255193323200
98225-30.90012158192213200
97215-40.80013159191113200
96216-30.80015059191103200
95206-40.81117058180003200
94207-30.82219056170003200
93197-40.83322052150002200
92198-30.75623048130002100
187-50.76623047120002100
91188-40.79924040100002100
199-20.78924042100002100
177-60.79102403990002100
90189-30.611122203370001100
178-50.612122103270001100
1910-10.611122203370001100
89179-40.513141802450001100
1810-20.512141802650001100
168-60.513131702340001100
881710-30.412131301830001000
169-50.411121201630000000
1811-10.411121201730001000
871610-40.399801110000000
1711-20.3910801220000000
159-60.289701010000000
861611-30.26640710000000
1510-50.15640610000000
851511-40.13320300000000
841512-30.01110200000000
831412-40.00000100000000
821413-30.00000000000000
811313-40.0000000000000
801314-30.00000000000
791214-40.00000000000
781215-30.00000000
771216-20.000000
761217-1No00
751117-2No0
51-74No
Total:0.1%2.93.14.40.17.51.60.00.00.00.30.20.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Calgary 4 Toronto 3 -0.6
Philadelphia 1 Anaheim 4 +0.1
Chicago 0 San Jose 2 +0.0
Nashville 3 Washington 5 -0.0
St. Louis 1 Winnipeg 2 (so)+0.0
Colorado 1 Vancouver 3 +0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Arizona vs Vancouver-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1+0.1-0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
111300-0067284100
110290-1100
109291-045181818
108281-1204317172
107271-21740291013
106272-111333612170
105262-2527401231200
104252-332042114190100
103253-211340952912000
102243-30736563834000
101244-20430364566110
100234-30223144513822000
99235-2011603392210440000
98225-300100130319880100
97215-400601193771314220000
96216-30300103841619541000
95206-4020043421621125310000
94207-301022701319236720000
93197-4000120091434513410000
92198-3000130584131955100000
91188-40008024421215123100000
90189-300040113701942154210000
89179-40020029014227687310000
881710-30010020090274101410410000
871610-400000130402127161912510000
861611-300008020130311212213510000
851511-400041060151525241451000
841512-3000200300171827241341000
831412-40010100028202924113000
821413-300000000031023312291000
811313-4000000014132731195100
801314-3000000001517313013300
791214-4000000018233524710
781215-300000031331331630
771115-4000001622372681
761116-3000002133235152
751016-40000162439255
741017-3000215363511
73917-40018294220
72918-30004214530
71818-4001134343
70819-300173755
69719-400042967
68720-30022277
67620-4011584
66621-3001090
65622-20694
64522-30496
63523-20298
62423-3199
61424-20100
60324-30100
59325-20100
51-58100
Total:0000000100170306123578991098632