Calgary Flames Playoff Chances

Beat Nashville 4-3, playoff odds up 6.7 to 63%
14 points   6 4-2

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Edmonton 3 Washington 2 -0.3
Anaheim 4 Buffalo 1 -0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Ottawa vs Toronto*-0.0-0.1*-0.0*+0.0*-0.0+0.0
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Calgary 5 Carolina 0 +3.4
+0.2
+0.4
San Jose 4 Columbus 5 +0.6
Los Angeles 2 Buffalo 0 -0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Calgary finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
126-154InYes100676*
1255211-7In98.3%98260*
122-124InYes100673*
1215013-7In99.09900575*
1205014-6In97.99910969*
1194914-7In97.599001,521*
1184814-8In95.398112,379*
1174815-7In93.697213,715*
1164715-8In91.096225,563*
1154716-7In86.1944308,144*
1144616-8In80.39054011,988*
1134617-7In73.98776016,700*
1124517-8In66.68299023,198*
1114518-7In56.87612110031,829*
1104418-8In46.5691615042,420*
1094419-7In35.76119191055,568*
1084319-8In25.45222242072,223*
1074320-7In16.643262930091,493*
1064220-8In9.6332834400113,167*
1054221-7In4.9252939700138,017*
1044121-8In2.21729431010165,246*
1034122-7In0.81127461410193,930*
1024022-8100.0%0.26244820300223,829*
1014023-7100.00.03204725500254,680*
1003923-8100.00.011544317100284,661*
993924-799.90.0111393611200311,232*
983824-899.7No073340163000335,367*
973825-799.0No052741206100355,906*
963725-897.2No03204023112000369,137*
953726-793.3No01143724176100379,304*
943626-886.2No019322222113000381,220*
933526-975.0No06251826176100377,203*
923527-860.3No0319122624123000367,533*
913427-944.1No021372228197100352,801*
903428-829.4No019416282613300331,140*
893328-917.5No005210243020710307,553*
883329-89.3No003151830271330279,661*
873229-94.5No002031126322061251,177*
863230-81.9No001016203227112221,887*
853130-90.8No00003143032173192,048*
843131-80.3No0000182435246164,490*
833031-90.1No0001518353110138,365*
823032-80.0No0000212313816114,313*
812932-90.0No0001826422392,875*
802933-80.0No0000421433174,286*
792833-9OutNo00215424057,901*
782834-8OutNo0111394944,873*
772734-90.0No0017355734,261*
762735-8OutNo004296625,592*
752635-9OutNo03247318,882*
742636-8OutNo02207913,689*
732637-7OutNo0115849,836*
722537-8OutNo011886,730*
712538-7OutNo08914,583*
702438-8OutNo07933,153*
692439-7OutNo05952,036*
682339-8OutNo3971,366*
672340-7OutNo298935*
662240-8OutNo0199534*
652241-7OutNo298330*
642141-8OutNo199214*
632142-7OutNo199117*
61-62OutNo100119*
601842-10OutNo49625*
14-59OutNo100642*
Total:63.0%2.4%571618888876537,366,540

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Calgary finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupAnaheimMinnesotaNashvilleVancouverChicagoSt. LouisSan JoseLos AngelesDallasColoradoWinnipegEdmontonArizona
154700-09.2%66868101091110863
131536-11NoYes
1305610-4No2020202020
129549-7No1733171717
1285410-610.01010204020
1275411-5No66136661325136
1265210-813.87333101717211033
1255211-76.7331271277715123103
1245212-69.25488810713711884
1235112-710.17781010913884754
1225012-84.3956897148108357
1215013-77.15391389811810555
1205014-65.6568989111085875
1194914-77.46661078111097875
1184814-86.36771077121197665
1174815-77.06579881110107765
1164715-87.2657979111097775
1154716-77.26671078111187765
1144616-87.17571178111297765
1134617-77.37571178111286665
1124517-87.07571178121286665
1114518-76.78561277121286665
1104418-86.99561367131286565
1094419-77.09561467131375564
1084319-86.811461566141365464
1074320-76.712451666141464464
1064220-86.513451755151454454
1054221-76.615441855161553354
1044121-86.316341944161543354
1034122-76.218332034171632254
1024022-86.119332133171632253
1014023-76.020332133181722153
1003923-85.720332133181721153
993924-75.621332133171621153
983824-85.521432133171621153
973825-75.421542033161521143
963725-85.121641943151421143
953726-74.921751744141321133
943626-84.520851544121121132
933627-73.91884134410911022
923527-83.1147410437710021
913528-72.211537325510011
903428-81.57425213310010
893429-70.94213112200000
883329-80.52112101100000
873330-70.21101001000000
863230-80.11000000000000
853231-70.00000000000000
843131-80.0000000000000
833031-90.0000000000000
823133-60.000000000
813033-70.000000
802832-10No000
78-79No
772734-9No0
14-76No
Total:3.6%12.73.92.811.82.62.59.69.01.71.00.92.61.9
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Anaheim 4 Buffalo 1 +0.0
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Calgary 5 Carolina 0 -0.7
San Jose 4 Columbus 5 -0.1
Los Angeles 2 Buffalo 0 +0.1

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
126-154100
1255211-7982
122-124100
1215013-799100
1205014-698110
1194914-798200
1184814-895211
1174815-794321
1164715-891522
1154716-7867430
1144616-8801050400
1134617-77413706000
1124517-86716908000
1114518-75719120110000
1104418-8462315014000
1094419-73625181180010
1084319-8252721122112000
1074320-71726233252130000
1064220-810242442742040000
1054221-75202272874070000
1044121-821519102611701000100
1034122-7110151221151101310100
1024022-8061113141815116213000
1014023-703713819182194205000
1003923-80131241619518850701000
993924-701291121881513801012000
983824-8017081412101613113330000
973825-70040491451717215660100
963725-80030251421418613101012000
953726-70011211010161010141435100
943626-8001018061114517158103100
933526-9000503716216121414820000
923527-800003013151127191614720000
913427-90002011207319121815831000
903428-8001008041157162016831000
893328-90000050201039182117941000
883329-800003010514112023181041000
873229-900002003015122124191041000
863230-800100100151322241893100
853130-90000000261523251882000
843131-8000000027172525166100
833031-90000013919272413410
823032-8000001412232821820
812932-90000261627281640
802933-80000031023312491
792833-90015163030153
782834-80002102535225
772734-9000151935309
762735-800313333714
752635-90018284220
742636-8015224527
732637-7003174535
722537-801124344
712538-70183953
702438-80063460
692439-7042867
682339-8022772
672340-7012079
662240-811782
652241-711584
642141-81793
632142-7694
622042-8397
611942-9496
601842-10496
14-59100
Total:233344544455454544333333322210