Calgary Flames Playoff Chances

Tied with New Jersey 0-0 (10:00 PM ET), playoff odds down 0.3 to 81.1%
26 points   12 7-2

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Edmonton 0 New Jersey 2 +0.1
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Ottawa 2 St. Louis 3 -0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Calgary vs New Jersey+2.4+2.5+2.0-1.1-1.2-4.5
+0.2+0.2*+0.1*-0.1*-0.1-0.3
+0.4+0.5+0.3-0.3-0.3-0.8
San Jose vs Arizona-0.2-0.3-0.4*-0.0*+0.1+0.4
Tampa Bay vs Minnesota+0.3*-0.0*+0.0-0.2-0.4-0.3
Dallas vs Los Angeles+0.2*-0.1-0.3-0.2-0.2*-0.0
+0.1*+0.0*-0.0*+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Edmonton vs Chicago+0.2*+0.0*-0.0*-0.2-0.2-0.1
Colorado vs Carolina-0.1*-0.2*-0.1*+0.1*-0.0+0.2
Nashville vs Florida-0.0*-0.0*-0.0*-0.0*+0.1+0.1
NY Islanders vs Pittsburgh+0.2*+0.1*-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Boston vs Montreal+0.0*-0.0*+0.0*-0.1-0.1*-0.0
Toronto vs Detroit+0.1*-0.0*+0.0*-0.0*-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Calgary finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
123-148In99.1%1001,011*
1224510-6In94.9991493*
1214511-5In93.3991821*
1204411-6In92.599101,353*
1194412-5In87.898202,221*
1184312-6In83.997303,573*
1174313-5In78.696415,432*
1164213-6In72.393518,227*
1154214-5In65.29172011,983*
1144114-6In55.887113017,077*
1134014-7In45.782144023,694*
1124015-6In36.475196032,245*
1113915-7In26.768249042,594*
1103916-6In18.76028110055,788*
1093816-7In11.65034151071,267*
1083817-6In6.44039191088,548*
1073717-7In3.231422520107,425*
1063718-6In1.3224430400128,491*
1053618-7In0.5154336600150,016*
1043619-6In0.294140910172,183*
1033519-7In0.0536441310192,429*
1023520-6100.0%0.03314619200211,650*
1013420-7100.00.01244624400228,083*
1003421-6100.0No0184431610241,879*
993321-799.9No013403610200248,987*
983322-699.7No09344014300253,155*
973222-799.1No052743176100252,704*
963223-697.4No0321422011200246,171*
953123-794.1No2154020175100235,891*
943124-688.1No11035192310200222,511*
933024-779.0No0629152817400204,928*
923025-666.6No04231129248100186,085*
912925-752.6No02177273114200164,682*
902926-638.1No01114223522510144,329*
892826-725.2No007215342910100123,453*
882827-615.4No04110303516300103,349*
872727-78.5No020624372361084,973*
862728-64.2No0103173631111068,945*
852628-71.9No0101113136173054,988*
842629-60.8No000162438246042,736*
832529-70.3No0000318363110132,406*
822530-60.1No00211323616224,521*
812430-70.0No0017273923417,917*
802431-60.0No004194029712,930*
792331-7OutNo02143637119,266*
782332-6OutNo0183142176,312*
772232-7OutNo052646224,422*
762233-6OutNo032146302,937*
752133-7OutNo11446381,850*
742134-6OutNo11043471,267*
732034-7OutNo063954798*
722035-6OutNo63262474*
711935-7OutNo32275289*
701936-6OutNo12376198*
691836-7OutNo1387101*
681736-8OutNo208060*
671737-7OutNo488824*
661738-6OutNo49624*
26-65OutNo100394*
Total:81.1%2.2%8142221887532104,552,560

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Calgary finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupNashvilleSt. LouisAnaheimChicagoLos AngelesMinnesotaVancouverSan JoseWinnipegArizonaDallasColoradoEdmonton
148610-06.9%586881399185731
133526-3NoYes
130496-6NoYes
129497-516.71733171717
128487-613.3777713277207
127488-56.727713727777
126489-46.3613666131696693
125479-511.7215591212111212452
124469-612.64989810616148631
1234610-56.349889111412135430
1224510-67.149610913913144631
1214511-58.0587812101112135531
1204411-67.447899101212145631
1194412-57.8581089101111145531
1184312-67.457999111112154431
1174313-57.1478910111112144531
1164213-67.4579910101113144531
1154214-57.1579910101212144531
1144114-66.9589910111212134521
1134014-76.55810910101212134431
1124015-66.95710910101211124431
1113915-76.95711911101211124421
1103916-66.85711912101311114421
1093816-76.85712913101410103321
1083817-66.65713914101410103321
1073717-76.457158159151093321
1063718-66.346168169171072210
1053618-76.246187188181072210
1043619-66.145197197181062210
1033519-76.045216216201052110
1023520-65.934225225211042110
1013420-75.934234234221032100
1003421-65.633244244221022100
993321-75.533253253221022100
983322-65.443253253221012000
973222-75.254253243221012000
963223-65.16524323321912000
953123-74.97522422419812000
943124-64.59620420416701000
933024-73.99617417414501000
923025-63.49614414411401000
912925-72.7851131038301000
902926-61.96473735200000
892826-71.24352523100000
882827-60.73231312100000
872727-70.42121211000000
862728-60.21110101000000
852628-70.1000000000000
842629-60.1000000000000
832630-50.0000000000
822530-60.000000000
812430-7No00
802431-6No00
26-79No
Total:4.6%4.84.517.14.317.04.415.57.62.81.70.80.50.3
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

FridayNone
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Calgary vs New Jersey-0.5-0.5-0.4+0.3+0.3+1.0
Dallas vs Los Angeles-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
San Jose vs Arizona+0.0+0.1+0.1*-0.0*-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
126-148100
125479-5982
124469-6991
1234610-5982
1224510-69541
1214511-59351
1204411-692610
1194412-5881020
1184312-6841330
1174313-5791741
1164213-672215010
1154214-565267020
1144114-65631100300
1134014-746361404000
1124015-636391716000
1113915-727412128000
1103916-61941244101000
1093816-712392771311010
1083817-66342811163101000
1073717-73282616175302000
1063718-612123211785040000
1053618-70141826151190600000
1043619-60912281214131811100
1033519-70582981617210210100
1023520-603426416215124302000
1013420-7012222132191275040000
1003421-601171101914101010061100
993321-70013061519713151821000
983322-60080310214141931043000
973222-70050162021322610761100
963223-6003131809211181192200
953123-702011306181661512551000
943124-6100100312203161211930000
933024-7000601720114101812620000
923025-600041418011623141252000
912925-7000202150732412161251000
902926-6001011104121817181251000
892826-7000007020154132119124100
882827-60004101028172320114100
872727-7002006031121251993100
862728-60010030151423251772000
852628-7001010027172625155100
842629-60001000310202722123100
832529-700000014132428208200
822530-600002717272615510
812430-700002102229231020
802431-60001514272917510
792331-700282131251120
782332-60141429301850
772232-7001822342681
762233-6014163232142
752133-702102736223
742134-60052140286
732034-7417343510
722035-60211343915
711935-718224623
701936-63245221
691836-7115435
681736-8124543
671737-7133354
661738-62971
651840-32080
641740-45050
631539-71486
26-62100
Total:2551035784476343533322211110000