Calgary Flames Playoff Chances

Beating Tampa Bay 1-0 (16:16 3rd), playoff odds up 0.6 to 59.9%
8 points   4 3-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Boston 5 San Jose 3 +0.4
Nashville 4 Arizona 3 (so)*-0.2
Winnipeg 3 Carolina 1 -0.2
Chicago 4 Philadelphia 0 -0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Calgary vs Tampa Bay+3.6+3.6+3.2-1.2-1.0-5.4
+0.2+0.3+0.2*-0.0*-0.1-0.3
+0.5+0.5+0.5-0.3-0.3-0.8
Colorado vs Florida-0.2*-0.2*-0.2*+0.0*-0.1+0.3
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Edmonton vs Washington-0.3*-0.2-0.4*+0.2*+0.1+0.4
Anaheim vs Buffalo-0.2*-0.2*-0.1*-0.0*+0.1+0.4
-0.0*-0.1*+0.0*+0.0*+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Calgary finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
124-158InYes100400*
1235313-9In99.0%991102*
1225415-6In99.4991172*
1215315-7In99.21000241*
1205215-8In97.99910424*
1195216-7In96.99811610*
1185116-8In96.999101,013*
1175117-7In94.397211,537*
1165017-8In93.697212,344*
1155018-7In89.995423,436*
1144918-8In85.1916304,809*
1134818-9In78.8888406,900*
1124819-8In71.68410609,282*
1114719-9In62.478138012,803*
1104720-8In53.77217110016,805*
1094620-9In42.6652015122,413*
1084621-8In31.75624181028,631*
1074521-9In21.94728232036,463*
1064522-8In13.63831283044,960*
1054422-9In7.329323450055,017*
1044423-8In3.521333881066,217*
1034323-9In1.4133242111078,599*
1024324-8100.0%0.5829451620090,693*
1014224-9100.00.15254521400103,704*
1004225-8100.00.022044266100117,701*
994125-999.90.011541329100129,849*
984126-899.8No0113636133000141,415*
974026-999.20.0073039185100151,013*
964027-897.9No052439219200160,229*
953927-994.9No03183723154100166,021*
943928-889.1No011233222092000170,319*
933828-979.7No18271925155100171,223*
923829-867.0No05211426219200169,967*
913729-951.6No031692427165100165,052*
903730-836.1No0111519292310200159,402*
893630-922.8No017313262817510150,521*
883631-813.0No004182131241020140,373*
873531-96.6No002041529301640128,857*
863532-83.1No0102924332381116,554*
853432-91.4No01015173230132103,880*
843433-80.5No0000212283420490,265*
833333-90.2No000017223627778,403*
823334-80.1No000041635331266,841*
813234-90.0No00021131391755,607*
803235-80.0No0001726422445,933*
793135-90.0No0000420443137,464*
783136-8OutNo00215424129,673*
773036-90.0No00110394923,452*
763037-8OutNo017365718,230*
752937-9OutNo05316413,994*
742938-8OutNo03267110,435*
732838-9OutNo0221777,811*
722839-8OutNo117825,710*
712739-9OutNo013874,092*
702740-8OutNo09912,918*
692640-9OutNo07921,957*
682641-8OutNo5951,353*
672541-9OutNo496933*
662542-8OutNo496604*
652442-9OutNo199386*
642342-10OutNo199261*
632343-9OutNo199150*
622344-8OutNo199105*
8-61OutNo100452*
Total:59.9%2.4%571516888887643,426,980

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Calgary finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupChicagoAnaheimNashvilleLos AngelesMinnesotaSan JoseDallasSt. LouisVancouverArizonaWinnipegEdmontonColorado
158750-06.4%758510710127101343
1315810-7NoYes
1305912-4No5050
1295812-5No333333
1285611-833.33367
1275511-9No103010202010
1265613-620.01320137720713
1255412-913.87101432131433147
1245413-8No49116211131167776
1235313-93.95101189998581163
1225415-64.1884951286108985
1215315-75.85113121279798746
1205215-86.6668998101097666
1195216-77.558510810681191045
1185116-86.9696891188129645
1175117-75.66871081099118555
1165017-87.76861081088119755
1155018-77.0686981098109754
1144918-86.36871071088910755
1134818-96.65961171097109655
1124819-86.36961181187119644
1114719-96.15961181188109654
1104720-86.251061171277119654
1094620-96.151061271277119553
1084621-86.051161371377119543
1074521-96.451251361376119543
1064522-86.041351461466129443
1054422-95.941451551565129442
1044423-85.841641651555139342
1034323-95.741741741644139342
1024324-85.631831841744149231
1014224-95.531931831733149231
1004225-85.432031931833139231
994125-95.232031931833149131
984126-85.242031931833139131
974026-94.942041931733138131
964027-84.852041831733128131
953927-94.661951741533117130
943928-84.271851541433106120
933828-93.87166134123385120
923829-83.17145114103364010
913729-92.461048372253010
903730-81.74736251132010
893630-91.13524131121000
883631-80.62312121111000
873531-90.31111010000000
863532-80.10100000000000
853432-90.10000000000000
843433-80.0000000000000
833434-70.0000000000000
823334-80.00000000000
813234-90.0000000
803336-60.000
793337-5No00000
783540-0No
773238-5No0
8-76No
Total:3.1%3.511.23.110.32.59.52.22.27.14.71.01.90.6
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Boston 5 San Jose 3 -0.1
Nashville 4 Arizona 3 (so)+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Calgary vs Tampa Bay-0.7-0.7-0.6+0.3+0.2+1.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Anaheim vs Buffalo+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.1
Edmonton vs Washington+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
124-158100
1235313-9991
1225415-6991
1215315-79900
1205215-898110
1195216-797111
1185116-897210
1175117-794321
1165017-894321
1155018-790542
1144918-88566030
1134818-97998400
1124819-872131006000
1114719-962161308000
1104720-85419160110000
1094620-9432219015001
1084621-83225231181010
1074521-9222526221112000
1064522-8142427324223000
1054422-97222762653050000
1044423-841724925860700100
1034323-91122012221190110010
1024324-80815141615131141102000
1014224-90510151017171173204000
1004225-80261451619418540601000
994125-90131321319716960911000
984126-80110191611121310012230000
974026-9000705111471615214450100
964027-80040361531517414791200
953927-90030131411216911121224100
943928-8001011107121471614682000
933828-9010070471631713121362000
923829-8000502316114818151152000
913729-90003111409320131612620000
903730-800010010051187151813721000
893630-900100703013310172015831000
883631-8000041081411192217941000
873531-90000200401512202318104100
863532-801002002513212418103100
853432-90101000261322241893100
843433-80000000027152325178200
833333-900000012817252515610
823334-800000013102027231230
813234-900000141324282071
803235-80000027182927143
793135-900013112532226
783136-8001619333011
773036-9000313303717
763037-80028264025
752937-9015194234
742938-8002143944
732838-90193654
722839-8163261
712739-90042769
702740-8022078
692640-911782
682641-811386
672541-90990
662542-8793
652442-9595
642342-10298
632343-9397
622344-8298
612244-9100
602245-8496
8-59100
Total:234433444445443533333333333221