Calgary Flames Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.3 to 18.5%
26 points   12 13-2

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs
Philadelphia 3 Chicago 1 +0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Arizona vs Columbus-0.3-0.3*-0.2*+0.0*+0.0+0.3
Vancouver vs Toronto-0.2-0.3-0.2*-0.0*+0.1+0.3
Edmonton vs Anaheim*+0.1-0.3-0.3*-0.2-0.3+0.1
St. Louis vs Winnipeg+0.1*-0.2*-0.1-0.3-0.3*-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday100.0*Chance in playoffs
Calgary vs Anaheim+3.7+3.3+2.8-0.8-1.0-4.0
Los Angeles vs Montreal-0.4-0.5-0.3*+0.1*+0.0+0.5
Nashville vs Philadelphia-0.2*-0.1-0.3*+0.1*+0.1+0.4
Chicago vs Winnipeg+0.2*-0.2*-0.1*-0.2-0.4-0.2
Edmonton vs Minnesota-0.1*-0.1*-0.2*-0.1*-0.2+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Calgary finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
114-136In99.4%100325*
113419-5In40.06020205*
112409-6In66.792812*
111399-7In60.096425*
1103910-6In32.07818450*
1093810-7In22.071161291*
1083710-8In15.5662013161*
1073812-5In7.76521141287*
1063712-6In4.74630222494*
1053612-7In2.336322920861*
1043613-6In0.3263534401,452*
1033513-7In0.31932418102,245*
1023514-6In0.01134421213,580*
1013414-7In0.06294617205,384*
1003415-6InNo3244723408,068*
993315-7InNo11844296011,677*
983316-6100.0%No1124135101016,869*
973216-799.9No083440153023,040*
963217-699.7No0528412050031,608*
953117-798.9No03214125101041,953*
943118-697.3No021438281630054,477*
933018-793.8No1933282360069,093*
923019-687.4No06262530111085,788*
912919-777.6No0320203518400104,345*
902819-864.7No02141435268100124,431*
892820-749.6No0199313414300144,077*
882720-835.1No00552437226100163,531*
872721-722.2No003217362911200182,677*
862621-812.8No002110313517400199,551*
852622-76.6No0105243624810211,619*
842522-83.1No00031634311330221,392*
832523-71.3No00011028352050227,221*
822423-80.5No000522352791227,001*
812424-70.2No0003153233152222,901*
802324-80.0No000192736225213,905*
792325-70.0No00152136298200,865*
782225-80.0No000314343513184,219*
772226-70.0No0019294020166,345*
762126-8OutNo016234327147,542*
752127-7OutNo003184337126,896*
742027-8OutNo002124046107,041*
732028-7OutNo018365588,750*
722029-6OutNo005316471,863*
711929-7OutNo003257256,207*
701930-6OutNo02207843,878*
691830-7OutNo01158433,686*
681831-6OutNo00118824,996*
671731-7OutNo0089218,112*
661732-6OutNo069412,962*
651632-7OutNo04968,926*
641633-6OutNo02986,009*
631533-7OutNo2984,017*
621534-6OutNo1992,657*
611434-7OutNo1991,601*
601435-6OutNo199981*
591335-7OutNo0100544*
581336-6OutNo0100322*
26-57OutNo100765*
Total:18.5%0.0%0025481114151514133,909,380

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Calgary finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupChicagoSan JoseMinnesotaAnaheimSt. LouisEdmontonNashvilleLos AngelesWinnipegArizonaColoradoDallasVancouver
136550-01.5%39418715111373442
114418-6No5050
113419-5No204040
112409-6No17172588178
111399-7No4481281242012484
1103910-64.0444184161016441222
1093810-72.231651531312145451
1083710-80.6414416717121723211
1073812-51.421051561691843334
1063712-61.031241761591943331
1053612-71.531751751861643222
1043613-61.131651872071622221
1033513-70.831832052061622121
1023514-61.131942141961712111
1013414-70.922032242251621111
1003415-60.832232232141711111
993315-71.032232332231611011
983316-60.842232332231611001
973216-70.842332232231611001
963217-60.752342232131501001
953117-70.772352141931401001
943118-60.882361951841301001
2916-100.882361951841301001
933018-70.7102181851641101001
3119-50.792171751741101001
923019-60.711208165144901001
2918-80.611198155144901000
2817-100.711208155144901001
912919-70.611178135124700000
2818-90.511178125115700000
3020-50.611188125124700000
902920-60.51015810594500000
2819-80.4101489584500000
2718-100.5101479594500000
892820-70.491177473400000
2719-90.381166463300000
882821-60.26855342200000
2619-100.36855342200000
872721-70.14533221100000
862722-60.12322111100000
852622-70.01111110000000
842623-60.0110000000000
832523-70.000000000000
822524-60.00000000000
812424-70.0000000000
802425-60.000000000
792325-7No000000
782427-4No0000
772327-5No0
26-76No
Total:0.1%2.34.21.83.11.12.90.91.80.00.10.00.00.1
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Arizona vs Columbus+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0*+0.0-0.1
Vancouver vs Toronto+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0*+0.0-0.0
St. Louis vs Winnipeg-0.0+0.0*+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday100.0*Lottery seed
Calgary vs Anaheim-0.8-0.7-0.6+0.2+0.1+0.8
Los Angeles vs Montreal+0.0+0.1+0.0*-0.0*+0.0-0.1
Chicago vs Winnipeg-0.0*+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
136550-0100
114418-6100
113419-540202020
112409-667258
111399-760364
1103910-632461624
1093810-7224914284
1083710-81651146103
1073812-585714711201
1063712-6542201013722
1053612-7233161715122200
1043613-60261619141640410
1033513-7019112210246061010
1023514-60117267259183010
1013414-70652432713310610200
1003415-63321224148101020300
993315-711171191411916405100
983316-6101201311176217173100
973216-70080871932311396200
963217-600544201211269114100
953117-70032217017121281872100
943118-60021113012917523972000
933018-7100907520226914410000
923019-600054320125624742000
912919-70003211702033177521000
902819-800021013014134591073100
892820-70100909031381313941000
882720-8000055024141117161041000
872721-70000320170261521181141000
862621-80002101001391823201041000
852622-70105001411212519103100
842522-80003000151323251882000
832523-7000100026162525167200
822423-800000002819262414510
812424-700000013112228221020
802324-8000000151526281861
792325-70000028203026122
782225-8000014132731195
772226-7000272133289
762126-8001414313516
752127-700028264024
742027-80015204234
732028-70002134044
722029-60193555
711929-70053064
701930-60032472
691830-7021880
681831-6011485
671731-7001090
661732-60793
651632-700595
641633-60397
631533-7298
621534-6298
611434-7199
601435-6199
591335-7199
581336-6199
26-57100
Total:0000000101130317112345678899109