Anaheim Ducks Playoff Chances

Lost to Edmonton 2-3 (ot), playoff odds down 1.4 to 86.5%
29 points   12 8-5

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
St. Louis 2 Winnipeg 3 (ot)-0.3
Vancouver 3 Toronto 2 (so)-0.2
Philadelphia 3 Chicago 1 +0.1
+0.1
Nashville 4 New Jersey 5 (ot)*+0.1
Edmonton 3 Anaheim 2 (ot)*+0.1
-0.1
Arizona 2 Columbus 3 (so)*-0.1
NY Rangers 4 Carolina 2 -0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Calgary vs Anaheim-3.6-0.7-0.7+2.2+2.6+2.8
-0.2*-0.0*-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
-0.6-0.1-0.2+0.4+0.4+0.5
Chicago vs Winnipeg+0.2*+0.0*-0.0-0.3-0.4-0.3
-0.0*-0.0*-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.0
Los Angeles vs Montreal-0.3-0.3-0.2+0.1*+0.0+0.3
+0.1*+0.0*+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Nashville vs Philadelphia-0.2-0.2-0.1*+0.1*-0.0+0.3
Edmonton vs Minnesota*-0.0-0.2-0.2*-0.0*-0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Anaheim finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
122-143In99.6%1001,293*
121449-4In96.61000522*
120439-5In95.2100868*
1194310-4In93.199001,531*
1184210-5In89.9100002,732*
1174110-6In84.599104,410*
1164111-5In80.798116,971*
1154011-6In73.5981110,996*
1144012-5In65.4953216,759*
1133912-6In56.4934224,798*
1123913-5In46.99063036,023*
1113813-6In36.68695050,526*
1103814-5In26.981127069,876*
1093714-6In18.3741610093,802*
1083715-5In11.366201400122,328*
1073615-6In6.356251810156,386*
1063616-5In3.046292310195,941*
1053516-6In1.336332920238,816*
1043517-5In0.427353440285,624*
1033417-6In0.1183540600333,951*
1023317-7In0.01234451000382,842*
1013318-6In0.0730481410427,492*
1003218-7In0.0426492020467,472*
993219-6100.0%No2204926300501,428*
983119-7100.0No1154732500525,454*
973120-6100.0No01142388100540,144*
963020-799.9No07364312200544,475*
953021-699.7No04294616300537,171*
942921-799.1No032347207100518,915*
932922-697.6No01164622122000490,292*
922822-794.4No1114222185100453,152*
912823-688.4No0736202510200413,688*
902723-779.0No04291629174000367,985*
892724-666.3No02221130248100320,976*
882624-751.7No01167273114300274,764*
872625-636.9No011142234227100230,946*
862525-724.0No007215322912200189,705*
852526-614.2No00419273319510153,042*
842426-77.6No02052133261020120,745*
832427-63.7No00102133032164093,942*
822327-71.6No010182434238171,237*
812328-60.6No000417333013253,027*
802228-70.2No00211283520438,197*
792229-60.1No0017213627827,694*
782129-70.0No00031535351219,266*
772130-6OutNo021030401913,160*
762030-7OutNo0162443278,909*
752031-6OutNo031844365,763*
741931-7OutNo021241453,863*
731932-6OutNo01837542,497*
721832-7OutNo0431651,476*
711833-6OutNo042670969*
701834-5OutNo11979566*
691734-6OutNo11584317*
681735-5OutNo1090193*
671635-6OutNo89299*
661636-5OutNo49657*
651536-6OutNo39732*
641436-7OutNo69418*
29-63OutNo100797*
Total:86.5%1.6%9122524876421109,456,920

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Anaheim finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupChicagoSan JoseMinnesotaEdmontonNashvilleSt. LouisLos AngelesWinnipegDallasCalgaryArizonaVancouverColorado
143570-07.8%5589811141296563
129485-450.05050
128497-1No333333
127476-433.31717331717
126477-35.661761122176666
125467-43.21061331316616366
124468-310.96828113168811866
123458-46.02476716101467874
122448-55.555781110151177583
121449-46.964810910141266763
120439-54.75498810131188843
1194310-46.445781014131177653
1184210-57.65578911131198664
1174110-67.145791111141087564
1164111-56.85579911141197664
1154011-66.955691011131187563
1144012-56.25579911141187663
1133912-66.5557101010131187553
1123913-56.7567101010141087563
1113813-66.756711910141087553
1103814-56.557711910151077553
1093714-66.65761391015976553
1083715-56.45861491016866553
1073615-66.2596159917866442
1063616-56.14116178917755442
1053516-66.04136198818645442
1043517-55.94145217819544331
1033417-65.74165237720434331
1023317-75.63184256621434331
1013318-65.43204275522323221
1003218-75.33223294423223221
993219-65.23233304423213220
983119-75.03243313324113220
973120-65.03253313323113220
963020-74.93263312323103220
953021-64.84263313322103220
942921-74.75264293321003220
932922-64.67265283319003220
922822-74.48256264417002220
912823-64.19237224415002110
902723-73.79207194412001110
892724-63.0917715349001110
882624-72.3713611336001000
872625-61.761058224000000
862525-71.04635112000000
852526-60.72423111000000
842527-50.31212001000000
832427-60.211010000000
822428-50.100000000000
812328-60.00000000000
802329-50.0000000000
792330-4No000000
782129-7No00
29-77No
Total:4.5%4.618.94.322.54.04.117.31.91.42.82.02.00.5
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Edmonton 3 Anaheim 2 (ot)+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday100.0*Lottery seed
Calgary vs Anaheim+0.9+0.2+0.2-0.6-0.7-0.7
Los Angeles vs Montreal+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Edmonton vs Minnesota+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
124-143100
123458-4991
122448-5991
121449-49730
120439-5955
1194310-493600
1184210-5901000
1174110-6841510
1164111-58118101
1154011-6732411
1144012-565303020
1133912-656374020
1123913-5474360300
1113813-63750815000
1103814-5275411171000
1093714-6185513391000
1083715-511541551130000
1073615-665017813500100
1063616-53431712139101000
1053516-613516171314202000
1043517-5026132111194031000
1033417-60181025924615100000
1023317-7012727528926300000
1013318-6074263291248610100
1003218-70422312614881020200
993219-6211902114147154021000
983119-7101501512204206142000
973120-6001109825223103541000
963020-700705526123127571000
953021-60043225020121441221000
942921-700311210151122317431000
932922-6001001601072912148210000
922822-710011064321224153210000
912823-60007323102022344310000
902723-70004112701612835642000
892724-6000200220110302599621000
882624-7001001670271491312721000
872625-6010011402202613171583100
862525-7000072015013917201682000
852526-600041900141220231672000
842426-70205000161523231572000
832427-60010200028182523145100
822327-7010100131020262212410
812328-6000001413232720920
802228-700000261726271651
792229-6000139212925112
782129-7000014142731184
772130-600282133279
762030-7001415313515
752031-6018274023
741931-7015204133
731932-602144143
721832-7173656
711833-6072963
701834-5032275
691734-621780
681735-51288
671635-61387
661636-5793
651536-6397
641436-7694
29-63100
Total:27392941028410171611112221111000