Toronto Maple Leafs Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.5 to 71.2%
6 points   3 1-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Ottawa 3 Winnipeg 4 (ot)-0.6
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Toronto vs Edmonton+3.8+3.1+2.4-2.3-2.3-6.4
+0.3+0.2+0.2-0.2-0.1-0.5
+0.9+0.9+0.6-0.7-0.6-1.6
Vancouver vs Montreal*-0.0-0.6-0.4*-0.1-0.5+0.3
+0.1*-0.0*-0.0*-0.1*-0.0-0.0
Vegas vs Arizona-0.1-0.1*-0.1*-0.0*+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
95-110InYes100387*
94426-4In87.5%88138*
89-93In99.8100477*
88399-4In99.61000483*
87389-5In99.31000821*
863810-4In98.910001,480*
853710-5In98.699102,425*
843711-4In96.899103,909*
833611-5In94.998206,181*
823612-4In91.496319,570*
813512-5In88.1954114,119*
803412-6In82.4926220,582*
793413-5In74.28893028,864*
783313-6In64.782135040,563*
773314-5In52.775177053,583*
763214-6In39.56623110070,239*
753215-5In27.45628160089,678*
743115-6In16.644332210112,521*
733116-5100.0%8.5323729200137,070*
723016-6100.03.6213837400162,713*
713017-5100.01.1123545700188,610*
702917-6100.00.36305013100214,010*
692918-5100.00.02235320200236,872*
682818-699.90.011550304000256,068*
672819-599.7No0843408100272,630*
662719-699.1No04314814210282,156*
652720-597.1No0120492073000285,416*
642620-692.3No0104322177100283,644*
632621-583.2No04311830134100273,391*
622521-668.9No0119113818103000259,206*
612522-551.5No0953718209200241,119*
602422-633.9No041291426196100219,718*
592423-519.9No010188252915400194,823*
582323-610.3No0001031732261020169,310*
572324-54.8No00051926332050144,605*
562224-62.1No000204183330112119,449*
552225-50.9No001019283621497,296*
542125-60.4No00004193630977,707*
532126-50.2No0000021132391660,689*
522026-60.1No0001625432546,305*
512027-50.1No000317443534,705*
501927-60.0No000111414725,272*
491928-50.0No0017365617,969*
481828-60.0No0004296612,506*
471829-5OutNo0224748,577*
461729-60.0No0118815,830*
451730-5OutNo114863,758*
441630-6OutNo010902,326*
431631-5OutNo06941,567*
421531-6OutNo496974*
411532-5OutNo496532*
401432-6OutNo298324*
37-39OutNo100330*
361234-6OutNo59522*
6-35OutNo100419*
Total:71.2%4.6%910191861045554324,793,808

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupMontrealCalgaryTampa BayFloridaCarolinaWinnipegNashvilleOttawaDallasDetroitColumbusVancouverEdmontonChicago
110520-06.5%172221181111
95436-3No333333
94426-412.538381313
93427-311.1111122331111
92417-43.6213214114711
91418-31.68168216232221383
90408-44.3111614161221231193
89398-58.51515122192151149131
88399-45.614182121531642210101
87389-57.91715232173152329101
863810-47.015151231621822311101
853710-57.814152221631633210102
843711-48.013152231631633210102
833611-57.113142331731633310102
823612-47.51314333163163331092
813512-57.61314333163153331092
803412-67.31313333154143431092
793413-57.4131334415414443992
783313-67.5121344414414443982
773314-57.3131344414513444882
763214-67.1131344414513544872
753215-57.2131345513512544772
743115-67.2141445514512544762
733116-56.9151545514512543662
723016-66.7161644414413443662
713017-56.7171833415413433661
702917-66.5191933316314322661
692918-56.3212122217214221661
682818-66.1222222218215211761
672819-55.9222321118115111770
662719-65.7222222218114111760
652720-55.5212132217213211660
642620-65.1201944314311211550
632621-54.517176541139311440
622521-63.71413654836311220
612522-52.71110543534211110
602422-61.887332322110110
592423-51.155211211100000
582424-40.633111101000000
572324-50.311000100000000
562325-40.111000000000000
552225-50.00000000000000
542226-40.000000000000
532126-50.000000000
522026-60.0000000
512128-30.0000000
502129-20.000000
491928-5No000
482030-2No0
472031-1No
461931-2No00
6-45No
Total:4.4%13.913.92.82.62.510.92.38.92.01.51.14.24.00.6
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Ottawa 3 Winnipeg 4 (ot)+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Toronto vs Edmonton-0.8-0.8-0.6+0.5+0.5+1.5
Vancouver vs Montreal-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
95-110100
94426-48813
90-93100
89398-51000
88399-41000
87389-59900
863810-49910
853710-599110
843711-497210
833611-595320
823612-491531
813512-588741
803412-682106020
793413-57413903000
783313-665181305000
773314-553221707000
763214-64026221110000
753215-52728263141000
743115-61728285192101000
733116-59242892243020000
723016-641824142386040000
713017-51111818211311170000
702917-60611201417172111101000
692918-502518818216143302000
682818-60121331520131587040000
672819-50081914191214132711000
662719-60030472161719610320100
652720-5001012172131816119703000
642620-600009071224714143520000
632621-500040242531518128621000
622521-60001011171101424711841000
612522-500009057304101411631000
602422-6000401227151216151052000
592423-5001001801512181914831000
582323-600001000141118211710410000
572324-50000500014101722201362000
562224-60000200139172322156200
552225-500100013817242315610
542125-600001391825241451
532126-50000001310212724112
522026-60000014132530216
512027-500001618313012
501927-600000311273822
491928-500016204132
481828-60002143846
471829-50193456
461729-600042867
451730-5032276
441630-6021682
431631-501188
421531-6892
411532-50694
401432-6397
391433-5100
381333-6199
371334-5298
361234-6595
6-35100
Total:5455445544463346222222222222211