Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Sports Club Stats, which I have open
in like seven browser tabs always
-Katie Baker

Montreal Canadiens Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.1 to 79.3%

5 points 2 0-1

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Win Stanley Cup	100.0*	Pres Trophy
Ottawa 3 Winnipeg 4 (ot)	-0.5
Los Angeles 2 Colorado 3					-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Win Stanley Cup	100.0*	Pres Trophy
Vancouver vs Montreal	-4.4-0.9-0.8+3.1+3.4+3.8		-0.4-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.3+0.4		-2.1-0.5-0.5+1.6+1.8+1.9
Toronto vs Edmonton	+0.1-0.4-0.4*-0.3-0.4+0.1
Vegas vs Arizona					-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.1-0.0+0.2
Anaheim vs Minnesota					+0.1-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Montreal finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Division seed				Conference seed (wildcard race)
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1a	1b	2	3	WCb	WCa	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

91	-111						In		Yes		100														924	*
90		40	8		-	5	In		99.6	%	100	0													485	*
89		40	9		-	4	In		99.3		100	0													879	*
88		39	9		-	5	In		99.1		100	0													1,483	*
87		39	10		-	4	In		99.1		100	0	0												2,443	*
86		38	10		-	5	In		98.6		99	1	0												4,085	*
85		38	11		-	4	In		97.9		99	1	0												6,244	*
84		37	11		-	5	In		96.7		99	1	0												9,565	*
83		37	12		-	4	In		95.0		98	2	0												14,339	*
82		36	12		-	5	In		91.8		97	3	0												20,534	*
81		36	13		-	4	In		87.3		95	4	1												29,178	*
80		35	13		-	5	In		81.7		92	7	2												40,568	*
79		35	14		-	4	In		73.8		88	10	3	0											53,514	*
78		34	14		-	5	In		63.8		82	13	4	0											70,482	*
77		33	14		-	6	In		52.4		75	18	7	0											89,979	*
76		33	15		-	5	In		39.4		66	23	10	0											112,461	*
75		32	15		-	6	In		27.2		56	29	14	0	0										136,763	*
74		32	16		-	5	In		16.1		44	34	21	1	0										161,743	*
73		31	16		-	6	100.0	%	8.3		32	38	28	2	0		0								187,887	*
72		31	17		-	5	In		3.4		21	39	36	3	0										212,812	*
71		30	17		-	6	100.0		1.1		13	37	43	7	0		0								236,064	*
70		30	18		-	5	100.0		0.2		6	32	50	12	0	0	0								255,884	*
69		29	18		-	6	100.0		0.0		2	24	53	20	1	0	0								270,977	*
68		29	19		-	5	99.9		0.0		1	16	50	29	3	0	0	0							281,013	*
67		28	19		-	6	99.7		No		0	9	43	40	7	1	0	0							284,035	*
66		28	20		-	5	99.0		No		0	4	32	47	13	2	1	0	0						280,127	*
65		27	20		-	6	96.9		No		0	1	20	49	20	8	3	0	0						272,498	*
64		27	21		-	5	91.9		No			0	10	43	21	18	7	1	0	0					259,452	*
63		26	21		-	6	82.2		No			0	4	30	18	30	13	4	1	0	0				241,574	*
62		26	22		-	5	67.2		No			0	1	18	10	38	18	11	3	0	0				217,704	*
61		25	22		-	6	49.2		No				0	8	4	36	18	21	10	2	0	0			194,482	*
60		25	23		-	5	31.7		No				0	3	1	27	14	27	20	7	1	0	0		169,318	*
59		24	23		-	6	17.8		No				0	1	0	16	8	24	30	16	4	0	0		144,843	*
58		24	24		-	5	9.1		No				0	0	0	9	3	16	32	27	11	2	0		120,557	*
57		23	24		-	6	4.2		No				0	0	0	4	1	9	26	34	21	6	1		98,709	*
56		23	25		-	5	1.8		No				0	0	0	2	0	4	16	33	31	13	2		79,599	*
55		22	25		-	6	0.8		No				0	0		1	0	1	9	26	37	21	4		62,077	*
54		22	26		-	5	0.4		No				0	0		0	0	0	4	18	36	32	9		47,721	*
53		21	26		-	6	0.2		No					0		0		0	2	11	31	40	17		35,696	*
52		21	27		-	5	0.2		No					0		0		0	1	6	24	43	26		26,303	*
51		20	27		-	6	0.1		No					0		0		0	0	3	17	44	37		18,977	*
50		20	28		-	5	0.1		No							0		0	0	1	11	42	46		13,295	*
49		19	28		-	6	0.0		No							0			0	0	7	36	57		9,200	*
48		19	29		-	5	Out		No											0	4	29	67		6,029	*
47		18	29		-	6	Out		No											0	2	23	74		4,029	*
46		18	30		-	5	Out		No											0	1	16	82		2,650	*
45		17	30		-	6	Out		No											0	1	12	87		1,632	*
44		17	31		-	5	Out		No													10	90		1,097	*
43		17	32		-	4	Out		No													6	94		667	*
42		16	32		-	5	Out		No													5	95		372	*
41		16	33		-	4	Out		No													3	97		192	*
40		15	33		-	5	Out		No														100		140	*
39		15	34		-	4	Out		No													3	97		59	*
5	-38						Out		No														100		468	*

Total:							79.3	%	8.0	%	14	13	21	17	5	8	4	4	4	3	3	2	1		4,793,808

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Montreal finish out the regular season. Explain


If finish:									Chance will play in first round
TP		W		L	-	OT	Win Cup		Calgary	Tampa Bay	Toronto	Florida	Carolina	Winnipeg	Nashville	Ottawa	Dallas	Detroit	Columbus	Vancouver	Edmonton	Chicago

111		53	0		-	0	12.0	%	16		19			19		19				14	13
99		44	3		-	6	No				Yes
97		45	6		-	2	No		20					40		20					20
96		44	6		-	3	14.3			14	14	14		29	14						14
95		43	6		-	4	14.3		7		21			29		21					21
94		43	7		-	3	2.9		26		17	3	6	14		14			3	6	11
93		42	7		-	4	13.3		11		15			28		16	3	1	1	13	12
92		41	7		-	5	8.8		10	2	17		2	14	3	18			1	16	16	1
91		41	8		-	4	9.4		16	1	15	0	1	18	1	15	2	2	1	8	17	3
90		40	8		-	5	12.0		16	2	16	1	1	17	2	13	2	2	0	12	14	1
89		40	9		-	4	8.8		14	2	16	1	2	16	3	17	2	1	1	9	13	1
88		39	9		-	5	9.5		13	2	17	2	2	17	1	16	2	2	1	11	14	2
87		39	10		-	4	9.2		15	2	17	2	2	17	2	15	2	2	2	10	12	1
86		38	10		-	5	10.6		14	2	15	2	2	16	2	16	2	2	2	11	12	2
85		38	11		-	4	9.3		14	2	16	2	2	15	2	15	2	3	2	11	12	2
84		37	11		-	5	9.5		13	2	15	2	2	15	3	16	3	3	2	11	11	1
83		37	12		-	4	9.6		13	2	15	3	2	16	3	15	3	3	2	10	11	2
82		36	12		-	5	9.4		14	3	15	3	3	15	3	14	3	3	3	10	11	2
81		36	13		-	4	9.3		13	3	14	3	3	15	3	14	3	3	3	10	11	2
80		35	13		-	5	9.5		12	3	14	3	3	15	4	14	3	3	3	10	10	2
79		35	14		-	4	9.6		12	3	14	3	4	14	4	14	4	4	3	9	10	2
78		34	14		-	5	9.2		12	3	14	4	4	14	4	13	4	4	3	9	9	2
77		33	14		-	6	9.4		12	4	13	4	4	14	4	13	4	4	4	9	9	2
76		33	15		-	5	9.3		12	4	13	4	5	13	5	12	5	4	4	8	8	2
75		32	15		-	6	9.3		12	4	13	5	5	13	5	12	5	5	4	7	8	2
74		32	16		-	5	8.9		13	4	14	5	5	13	5	12	5	5	4	7	7	2
73		31	16		-	6	8.9		14	4	14	5	5	14	5	12	5	4	3	7	7	2
72		31	17		-	5	8.8		15	4	15	4	4	14	5	12	4	4	3	6	6	2
71		30	17		-	6	8.6		17	4	17	4	4	15	4	13	4	3	3	6	6	1
70		30	18		-	5	8.5		18	3	18	3	3	16	3	13	3	3	2	7	6	1
69		29	18		-	6	8.2		20	2	20	2	2	17	2	14	2	2	1	7	7	1
68		29	19		-	5	8.0		21	2	20	2	2	18	2	15	2	1	1	7	7	1
67		28	19		-	6	7.7		22	2	21	1	1	19	1	15	1	1	1	7	7	0
66		28	20		-	5	7.4		22	2	21	2	2	18	1	15	1	1	1	7	7	0
65		27	20		-	6	7.1		21	3	20	2	2	17	2	14	2	1	1	7	6	0
64		27	21		-	5	6.6		19	4	17	4	3	15	3	12	2	1	1	5	5	0
63		26	21		-	6	5.8		17	6	14	5	4	12	3	9	3	1	1	4	4	0
62		26	22		-	5	4.8		14	6	11	5	4	8	3	6	3	1	1	2	2	0
61		25	22		-	6	3.6		11	5	8	4	3	6	3	4	2	1	1	1	1	0
60		25	23		-	5	2.2		8	3	5	3	2	4	2	2	1	1	0	1	1	0
59		25	24		-	4	1.3		5	2	3	1	1	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
58		24	24		-	5	0.6		3	1	2	1	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
57		24	25		-	4	0.3		1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
56		23	25		-	5	0.1		1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
55		23	26		-	4	0.1		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0	0
54		22	26		-	5	0.0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0
53		22	27		-	4	0.0		0		0	0		0		0				0	0
52		21	27		-	5	0.0		0		0			0		0				0	0
51		21	28		-	4	0.0		0		0			0		0				0	0
50		21	29		-	3	0.0		0		0			0		0					0
49		21	30		-	2	No				0									0
5	-48						No

Total:							6.5	%	14.5	3.0	13.9	2.9	2.8	12.4	2.6	10.3	2.4	1.9	1.5	5.2	5.1	0.8

Points (Full Screen)

Chance Will Make Playoffs (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Ottawa 3 Winnipeg 4 (ot)	+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Vancouver vs Montreal	+1.1+0.2+0.2-0.8-0.9-1.0
Toronto vs Edmonton	+0.0+0.1+0.1-0.0+0.0-0.1
Anaheim vs Minnesota	-0.0+0.0+0.0*+0.1+0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31

91	-111						100
90		40	8		-	5	100	0	0
89		40	9		-	4	99	0	0
88		39	9		-	5	99	1	0
87		39	10		-	4	99	1	0		0
86		38	10		-	5	99	1	1		0
85		38	11		-	4	98	1	1		0
84		37	11		-	5	97	2	1		0
83		37	12		-	4	95	3	2		0
82		36	12		-	5	92	5	3		0
81		36	13		-	4	87	7	4	0	1
80		35	13		-	5	82	10	7	0	2
79		35	14		-	4	74	14	9	0	3	0			0
78		34	14		-	5	64	18	13	0	4	0	0		0
77		33	14		-	6	52	23	17	1	7	0	0		0
76		33	15		-	5	39	27	22	1	10	0	0		0
75		32	15		-	6	27	29	26	3	13	1	0		0	0	0		0
74		32	16		-	5	16	28	29	5	18	2	1	0	1	0	0		0
73		31	16		-	6	8	24	29	10	21	4	3	0	2	0	0		0				0
72		31	17		-	5	3	18	25	15	22	8	6	0	3	0	0		0
71		30	17		-	6	1	12	18	19	19	13	11	1	6	0	0		0				0
70		30	18		-	5	0	6	11	21	14	17	17	2	10	1	1	0	0	0	0		0
69		29	18		-	6	0	2	5	19	7	18	21	6	14	3	3	0	1	0	0		0
68		29	19		-	5	0	1	2	14	2	14	20	13	15	8	7	0	3	0	0		0	0
67		28	19		-	6		0	0	8	0	8	14	20	11	14	13	2	7	1	1	0	0	0
66		28	20		-	5		0	0	4	0	3	7	22	5	16	19	7	10	3	2	0	1	0	0
65		27	20		-	6		0	0	1	0	1	2	17	1	13	18	16	11	9	7	1	3	0	0	0
64		27	21		-	5				0		0	0	9	0	7	11	25	7	14	14	4	6	2	0	0	0
63		26	21		-	6				0		0	0	4	0	2	4	24	3	15	18	12	8	6	3	1	0	0	0
62		26	22		-	5				0		0	0	1	0	0	1	16	0	10	14	24	7	11	9	4	1	0	0	0	0
61		25	22		-	6								0		0	0	8	0	4	7	30	3	10	14	12	7	3	1	0	0	0
60		25	23		-	5								0		0	0	3	0	1	2	25	1	5	11	16	16	11	5	2	0	0	0	0
59		24	23		-	6								0			0	1		0	0	16	0	1	5	11	18	19	15	8	3	1	0	0
58		24	24		-	5								0				0		0	0	9	0	0	1	4	10	17	21	18	11	5	2	0	0	0
57		23	24		-	6								0				0		0	0	4	0	0	0	1	3	9	17	22	21	14	6	2	0	0	0
56		23	25		-	5								0				0		0	0	2			0	0	1	3	8	16	23	23	15	7	2	0	0
55		22	25		-	6								0				0				1				0	0	1	3	8	16	24	24	16	7	2	0
54		22	26		-	5								0				0				0				0	0	0	1	3	8	17	25	25	15	5	1
53		21	26		-	6												0				0						0	0	1	3	9	20	27	25	12	3
52		21	27		-	5												0				0							0	0	1	4	11	24	30	22	7
51		20	27		-	6												0				0							0	0	0	1	6	17	31	31	13
50		20	28		-	5																0								0	0	0	2	10	26	38	22
49		19	28		-	6																0										0	1	5	20	40	34
48		19	29		-	5																										0	0	2	13	38	47
47		18	29		-	6																											0	1	8	33	58
46		18	30		-	5																												1	4	25	70
45		17	30		-	6																												0	2	20	78
44		17	31		-	5																													1	17	83
43		17	32		-	4																													0	11	88
42		16	32		-	5																														8	92
41		16	33		-	4																														6	94
40		15	33		-	5																														1	99
39		15	34		-	4																														3	97
38		14	34		-	5																														3	97
5	-37																																				100

Total:							8	6	7	6	5	5	6	6	4	4	4	5	2	3	3	5	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0