Calgary Flames Playoff Chances 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.6 to 65.8%
5 points   2 0-1

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy
Ottawa 3 Winnipeg 4 (ot)-0.6
Pittsburgh 5 Washington 4 (ot)*-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy
Vancouver vs Montreal*+0.0-0.4*-0.4-0.6-0.6+0.3
Toronto vs Edmonton+0.2-0.5*-0.4*-0.4-0.6*+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Calgary finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
89-111InYes100279*
88399-5In99.2%991125*
873910-4In98.6991219*
863911-3In99.3100416*
853710-6In98.3991665*
843711-5In97.39911,093*
833611-6In96.198201,741*
823612-5In95.398202,762*
813512-6In91.297304,006*
803513-5In87.4954105,737*
793413-6In80.5927208,292*
783414-5In71.388102011,323*
773314-6In62.082134015,596*
763315-5In48.975187020,026*
753215-6In35.4662410025,581*
743216-5In23.15529150032,538*
733116-6In12.94335221040,255*
723117-5In5.63039292047,473*
713017-6100.0%2.019393840056,255*
703018-5100.00.5103546800064,916*
692918-6100.00.1429511510072,704*
682919-599.90.02205224200079,161*
672819-699.8No0114735600085,213*
662820-599.3No0536451221089,495*
652720-697.5No02234918620092,361*
642721-592.5No011432215710093,257*
632621-682.1No0431192913410092,462*
622622-565.6No1171036191230088,400*
612522-646.0No0743419221120084,449*
602523-527.3No03124132623920077,843*
592423-614.5No01014621302061070,478*
582424-56.5No00062132931164062,334*
572324-62.6No00021620342710154,630*
562325-51.0No0010211283519446,471*
552225-60.4No000015193630938,682*
542226-50.2No0000021131391731,653*
532126-60.1No0001624432725,325*
522127-50.1No00000216423919,977*
512027-60.1No00019395115,255*
502028-50.0No0005326211,339*
491928-60.0No000325728,372*
481929-50.0No00120785,990*
471829-6OutNo014854,218*
461830-5OutNo010902,873*
451730-6OutNo7932,008*
441731-5OutNo4961,294*
431631-6OutNo496875*
421632-5OutNo298569*
411633-4OutNo199350*
401533-5OutNo199211*
391534-4OutNo199122*
5-38OutNo100267*
Total:65.8%4.7%91017165945655541,597,936

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Calgary finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupTorontoMontrealWinnipegTampa BayFloridaOttawaCarolinaNashvilleDallasDetroitEdmontonVancouverColumbusChicago
111530-08.6%162719121314
95403-10NoYes
94426-5No5050
93427-4No5050
92417-5No1122222222
91418-48.3251313813218
90419-310.6919232213264666
89409-410.618121521732111453
88399-56.41813112217211102222
873910-45.01311201112322219121
863911-36.515151722131233101412
853710-64.715171521161222121022
843711-55.315151432152222111322
833611-66.515151422133322111422
823612-56.314141423132323131232
813512-66.713141323143333131332
803513-56.713131333133333121233
793413-66.113131333123333111233
783414-56.712121344133333111233
773314-66.312131344124443111143
763315-56.312121144114444111043
753215-66.312121244114444101043
743216-56.21212124411554491044
733116-66.21312124511544491044
723117-56.4131312441144449943
713017-66.2141413441244449943
703018-56.215141433133333101032
692918-66.216161522142222101022
682919-56.217171622142222111121
672819-66.218181711151111111111
662820-56.118181611151111111111
652720-66.117171622142211111111
642721-55.9151514331222229911
632621-65.1131311441033327721
622622-54.1910844733325421
612522-62.977633422223311
602523-51.644322311112110
592524-40.933211111101100
582424-50.411100100000000
572425-40.211000000000000
562325-50.100000000000000
552326-40.00000000000000
542226-50.0000000
532227-40.0000000
522228-3No000000
512128-40.00000
502028-50.000
492130-2No00
481929-5No0
5-47No
Total:4.1%10.310.29.42.22.38.42.02.01.91.86.46.41.51.2
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Ottawa 3 Winnipeg 4 (ot)+0.1
Pittsburgh 5 Washington 4 (ot)*+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Vancouver vs Montreal-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1-0.0
Toronto vs Edmonton+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
89-111100
88399-5991
873910-49901
863911-3991
853710-69811
843711-59721
833611-696220
823612-595320
813512-691530
803513-58774010
793413-680117020
783414-57116100200
773314-662201304000
763315-549261717000
753215-6353022210000
743216-523322641411000
733116-61330287183101000
723117-56242613206302000
713017-6217211820107040000
703018-51101421161612171000000
692918-604722920184112101000
682919-50231741819111374020000
672819-6011111115191213101510000
662820-5005057236171659320100
652720-6002012192151715108502000
642721-500001108112471512352000
632621-60004034243161712863100
622622-501011601013247119520000
612522-60007046293101413841000
602523-50003011221410161713731000
592423-600010013013916201711520000
582424-500006001381521211583100
572324-6000020002613212318104100
562325-5001000251220242011410
552225-600000014112125211140
542226-50000000141223272192
532126-60000015142529195
522127-50000002719312912
512027-60001311273721
502028-500016204132
491928-60002133945
481929-5000183357
471829-6052669
461830-5022177
451730-611584
441731-501090
431631-60991
421632-50397
411633-4298
401533-5199
391534-4199
5-38100
Total:5555444534452336222223333322222