Winnipeg Jets Playoff Chances

Lost to St. Louis 0-2, playoff odds down 3.1 to 83.2%
41 points   18 10-5

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
St. Louis 2 Winnipeg 0 -3.0
-0.2
-0.4
Minnesota 2 Edmonton 3 +0.6
Colorado 5 Tampa Bay 6 +0.3
-0.2
Calgary 0 Nashville 2 +0.2
-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Winnipeg vs St. Louis+3.0+2.9+2.5-0.7-0.8-4.4
+0.2+0.2+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.3
+0.2+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.2
Chicago vs Minnesota+0.2-0.3-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.1
Vancouver vs Calgary+0.1-0.2-0.1-0.2-0.2*-0.0
Vegas vs Florida-0.1*-0.0-0.1+0.1*+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Winnipeg finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
126-139In99.6%1005,528*
125405-4In84.61000409*
124406-3In83.2100889*
123396-4In77.399011,887*
122397-3In73.199013,700*
121387-4In67.298026,982*
120377-5In60.09702013,268*
119378-4In52.09614023,615*
118368-5In44.69316040,256*
117369-4In37.09028067,010*
116359-5In29.5853120107,245*
1153510-4In22.7795160165,871*
1143410-5In16.57272110250,634*
1133411-4In11.36392720365,226*
1123311-5In7.354113330517,560*
1113312-4In4.343133950713,211*
1103212-5In2.3341445800953,504*
1093213-4In1.124154912001,238,347*
1083113-5In0.516145217101,567,255*
1073114-4In0.210135223101,931,659*
1063014-5100.0%0.061151302002,317,625*
1052914-6100.00.03946384002,705,009*
1042915-5100.00.01641447003,080,898*
1032815-6100.00.014345012103,423,908*
1022816-5100.0No022653171003,709,297*
1012716-699.9No011953243003,919,139*
1002717-599.8No011350315004,040,019*
992617-699.3No008443791004,063,047*
982618-598.3No00537411520003,995,182*
972518-696.1No0032942224003,830,001*
962519-591.8No0121393071003,590,935*
952419-684.4No011533361320003,285,826*
942420-573.4No00925392151002,933,089*
932320-659.2No0061737291020002,563,871*
922321-543.6No0031031341741002,184,610*
912221-628.9No02522352592001,820,383*
902222-517.1No012143132164001,481,222*
892122-68.9No00182434248101,177,201*
882123-54.1No0041632311530915,943*
872023-61.6No001926342261694,677*
862024-50.6No00151833301220515,958*
851924-60.2No0002112935193373,574*
841925-50.0No000162237277263,548*
831825-60.0No003153535120182,340*
821826-50.0No00193041190123,517*
811726-60.0No0015234427081,680*
801727-5OutNo003164437052,360*
791627-6OutNo01114146032,908*
781628-5OutNo0173656020,186*
771528-6OutNo043066012,149*
761529-5OutNo02247316,936*
751530-4OutNo01188014,004*
741430-5OutNo0138512,219*
731431-4OutNo0108821,258*
721331-5OutNo06903592*
711332-4OutNo5914325*
701232-5OutNo5896196*
691132-6OutNo391776*
681133-5OutNo97333*
671134-4OutNo91911*
65-66OutNo10014*
631037-2OutNo1001
41049-0OutNo01005,243
Total:83.2%0.5%4317271912743210065,385,066

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Winnipeg finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupNashvilleSt. LouisLos AngelesVegasSan JoseChicagoMinnesotaDallasAnaheimCalgaryVancouverColoradoEdmontonArizona
139490-06.7%3512420201785662
131443-2No5050
130444-1No5050
129434-26.366619193166
128413-58.38448881341313134
127414-411.9111310281312101043
126415-36.93325420201875662
125405-44.91512518212066663
124406-36.43512522191685672
123396-46.43622418221874482
122397-36.72612419221775572
121387-46.03612421201875472
120377-56.33712420201885472
119378-46.33712420201785572
118368-56.24812419201774572
117369-46.041012419191774472
116359-56.151212419191674462
1153510-46.061412319181564462
1143410-56.071711319171463361
1133411-45.992011319161353351
1123311-55.7112311218151243351
1113312-45.6142711218141142241
1103212-55.4163011218131032231
1093213-45.319331111711821131
1083113-55.1213611117107211200
1073114-45.02339111169611120
1063014-54.82440111168611020
1052914-64.725412111575100100
1042915-54.62541321147400010
1032815-64.525404321364000100
1022816-54.525396521264000100
1012716-64.425379731153000100
1002717-54.424341194943000100
992617-64.3243114105832000100
982618-54.3252816125732000100
972518-64.2262517136521000000
962519-54.0262217136411000000
952419-63.6261917125311000000
942420-53.1251614104210000000
932320-62.521131183200000000
922321-51.8179852100000000
912221-61.2126531100000000
902222-50.774321000000000
892223-40.442210000000000
882123-50.221100000000000
872124-40.110000000000000
862024-50.00000000000000
852025-40.00000000000
841925-50.0000000
831926-4No00000
821927-3No0
811827-4No0
41-80No
Total:3.8%21.326.68.46.22.98.34.23.00.60.30.30.90.10.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
St. Louis 2 Winnipeg 0 +0.8
Minnesota 2 Edmonton 3 -0.1
Calgary 0 Nashville 2 +0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday100.0*Lottery seed
Winnipeg vs St. Louis-0.7-0.6-0.5+0.3+0.3+0.9
Chicago vs Minnesota+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
128-139100
127414-4937
126415-3919
125405-485150
124406-38317
123396-4772201
122397-3732601
121387-4673102
120377-56037020
119378-45244140
118368-54548160
117369-43753208000
116359-530553012000
1153510-423565016000
1143410-5175560210010
1133411-4115280260020
1123311-5746100320030
1113312-443912138105000
1103212-52311314211080000
1093213-41231324532120000
1083113-501611344430170010
1073114-40109441650230010
1063014-506743498030002000
1052914-60344251010036114000
1042915-501241711120421107000
1032815-6011391013144330120100
1022816-500248122426501701000
1012716-600116933510802313000
1002717-5001036325141102925000
992617-60000133141514133490100
982618-500001237141513291412000
972518-6000001221014227152024000
962519-500011611319212557100
952419-600010374112325111330000
942420-500000144521211818710000
932320-6000000231151323221451000
922321-500000120972420211131000
912221-60001052201524201031000
902222-5000102113820251882000
892122-60000010831223251772000
882123-50000041515252516720000
872023-6000010271826241561000
862024-5000010039192623135100
851924-60000001311212722113100
841925-50000015132427199200
831825-600002616262616610
821826-500002819282512300
811726-60001412242921810
801727-500161729291530
791627-60031124332370
781628-50015183331121
771528-6021028382010
761529-501621403030
751530-400316373950
741430-5018354880
731431-4062656110
721331-5031957210
711332-41126324
701232-51057313
691132-6349454
681133-56733
671134-436559
661135-35644
651035-46040
631037-2100
41049-00100
Total:142193411656113685432211110000000