Winnipeg Jets Playoff Chances

Beat Buffalo 2-1, playoff odds up 6.7 to 42.3%
27 points   12 9-3

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup
Edmonton 0 New Jersey 2 +0.1
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup
Tampa Bay 2 Minnesota 1 +0.5
Ottawa 2 St. Louis 3 -0.3
Edmonton 1 Chicago 7 -0.3
Calgary 5 New Jersey 4 (so)-0.2
Dallas 5 Los Angeles 4 +0.2
Colorado 4 Carolina 3 -0.2
*+0.0
Nashville 3 Florida 2 (so)*-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Winnipeg finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
124-143In100.0%100111,305*
123457-6In96.3991700*
122458-5In94.899011,439*
121448-6In92.099013,068*
120449-5In88.998016,253*
119439-6In85.0981212,543*
1184310-5In80.99613023,677*
1174210-6In74.49524044,019*
1164211-5In66.69235079,516*
1154111-6In57.888480139,681*
1144112-5In48.68351100239,204*
1134012-6In38.47781510395,960*
1123912-7In28.670101910642,256*
1113913-6In19.8611324201,013,601*
1103813-7In12.55115303001,560,677*
1093814-6In7.14118356002,344,859*
1083714-7In3.53119409103,434,303*
1073715-6100.0%1.5222044131004,915,128*
1063615-7100.00.5141946182006,872,673*
1053616-6100.00.291746244009,391,896*
1043516-7100.00.0514443070012,538,498*
1033517-6100.00.02114036101016,383,273*
1023417-7100.00.01834401620020,916,064*
1013418-699.90.00528422130026,136,253*
1003318-799.80.003214228600031,965,308*
993319-699.4No021540331010038,248,692*
983219-798.3No0110353616200044,808,406*
973220-695.9No006293724400051,427,458*
963120-791.4No004223431810057,766,829*
953121-684.0No00216283714200063,577,576*
943021-773.6No0111214022400068,540,239*
933022-660.6No007153830910072,385,598*
922922-746.5No0049333715200074,911,651*
912923-633.0No0025264022500075,971,504*
902823-721.5No0012183930910075,495,907*
892824-612.9No00111134361420073,537,731*
882724-77.0No0000628402140070,210,758*
872725-63.5No000320392881065,704,831*
862625-71.6No0002143635132060,277,107*
852626-60.7No000183039193054,193,749*
842526-70.3No000052340266047,776,144*
832527-60.1No00031738329041,270,374*
822427-70.0No000111343815134,946,436*
812428-60.0No00017284221229,013,928*
802328-70.0No00004224228323,612,889*
792329-60.0No0002164136618,827,837*
782229-70.0No001113742914,723,654*
772230-60.0No000732481311,275,098*
762130-70.0No00042652188,460,594*
752131-6OutNo0022053256,225,061*
742031-7OutNo0011453324,482,561*
732032-6OutNo011050393,166,376*
721932-7OutNo00746472,186,851*
711933-6OutNo00441541,483,167*
701833-7OutNo0033661980,351*
691834-6OutNo023168636,806*
681734-7OutNo012574405,177*
671735-6OutNo002079251,510*
661635-7OutNo01684153,101*
651636-6OutNo0138790,454*
641536-7OutNo0109052,840*
631537-6OutNo079329,845*
621437-7OutNo059516,690*
611438-6OutNo4968,932*
601338-7OutNo3974,663*
591339-6OutNo2982,423*
581340-5OutNo1991,278*
571240-6OutNo199645*
27-56OutNo100111,345*
Total:42.3%0.1%1151011151615128511,336,427,220

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Winnipeg finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupNashvilleSt. LouisAnaheimChicagoVancouverLos AngelesCalgaryMinnesotaSan JoseDallasArizonaColoradoEdmonton
143580-02.7%6126148791995320
130505-3NoYes
129484-6NoYes
128485-5No383825
127486-4No7147437147
126476-57.75891211116235525
125477-43.48142187510198613
124467-53.97115197982074120
123457-61.981161377102275210
122458-52.6713514768218723
121448-62.87126146782186220
120449-52.87126157782076230
119439-62.68126157782176220
1184310-52.78136157782075220
1174210-62.78135157782175220
1164211-52.69135167772075220
1154111-62.69145166672075220
1144112-52.510155166672065220
1134012-62.611165176671965220
1123912-72.612174185561954220
1113913-62.514184195561854120
1103813-72.415194204451744120
1093814-62.417213214451743110
1083714-72.319223223341633110
1073715-62.321233223331622110
1063615-72.222242233331522010
1053616-62.123252233331512010
1043516-72.124253233331411010
1033517-62.024253233331411000
1023417-72.023244224431311000
1013418-62.023235214441211000
1003318-72.022227205541111000
993319-62.022218196651011000
983219-71.92119917776911000
973220-61.921181016886811000
963120-71.820161114886701000
953121-61.619151012886600000
943021-71.417131010775400000
933022-61.2151088664300000
922922-70.911866543200000
912923-60.68654332100000
902823-70.46433221100000
892824-60.23222111000000
882724-70.12111110000000
872725-60.11100000000000
862625-70.00000000000000
852626-60.00000000000000
842526-70.00000000000000
832527-60.00000000000000
822427-70.00000000000000
812428-60.00000000000
802429-50.000000000
792329-60.0000000000
782229-7No000000000
772331-4No00
761928-11No0
27-75No
Total:0.8%9.78.24.37.03.33.12.43.60.20.30.00.10.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

FridayNone
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Tampa Bay 2 Minnesota 1 -0.1
Ottawa 2 St. Louis 3 +0.0
Edmonton 1 Chicago 7 +0.0

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
127-143100
126476-5982
125477-4982
124467-5991
123457-69631
122458-595401
121448-692701
120449-589901
119439-6851312
1184310-58115130
1174210-6742020400
1164211-5672530500
1154111-65830408000
1144112-5493550110000
1134012-6383970140010
1123912-7294191181010
1113913-620411122320200
1103813-713391232630030000
1093814-67341352951060000
1083714-74281273082090010
1073715-622111928133013001000
1063615-711481124176017002000
1053616-6086121820812210040000
1043516-70531111211112631070000
1033517-6022961912328520100100
1023417-70117215125269501502000
1013418-600051101072113802013000
1003318-700030678151611025360000
993319-60020348816141276100100
983219-7001012731415326111512000
973220-6000001511014421162124000
963120-7000000306106142026681000
953121-6000002037782026111330000
943021-70000101464182218196100000
933022-60000002511315242312310000
922922-700000013098252319820000
912923-6000000205322182416720000
902823-700000010211712232314510000
892824-600000101011617252212410000
882724-700000000621021262010310000
872725-6000000031514242618820000
862625-70000000202717262515510000
852626-60000001003102127231131000
842526-700000000141324281982000
832527-6000000271727261551000
822427-70000001310222922102000
812428-600000015152729175100
802328-700000002922312410200
792329-6000001415293017400
782229-70000029233324810
772230-60000141631311430
762130-70000021026352150
752131-60001520352891
742031-70003133234152
732032-6000182738224
721932-7000052139296
711933-600215373610
701833-700110324115
691834-6016274522
681734-70003214629
671735-6002164637
661635-7001114345
651636-60173953
641536-70053461
631537-60032968
621437-7022474
611438-611980
601338-711485
591339-601287
581340-5991
571240-60793
561241-5694
551242-4595
541041-7496
27-53100
Total:010111112332567877766654432100