Ottawa Senators Playoff Chances

Lost to Winnipeg 3-4 (ot), playoff odds down 6 to 53.4%
3 points   1 1-1

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Ottawa 3 Winnipeg 4 (ot)-2.6
-0.1
-0.4
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Toronto vs Edmonton+0.1-0.7-0.5*-0.2-0.8+0.3
Vancouver vs Montreal*+0.0-0.5-0.6*-0.3-0.6+0.3
+0.0*+0.0*-0.1*-0.0*+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Ottawa finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
92-109InYes100389*
91427-4In92.3%92813*
88-90InYes100157*
87409-4In98.7991156*
86399-5In98.21000285*
853910-4In98.31000531*
843810-5In97.39910931*
833710-6In94.997201,640*
823711-5In92.396312,624*
813611-6In87.795414,134*
803612-5In81.292626,718*
793512-6In73.0871039,707*
783513-5In63.782135014,509*
773413-6In51.975177021,242*
763414-5In38.5662311029,590*
753314-6In26.15429160040,718*
743315-5In16.04334221053,754*
733215-6100.0%8.031373020070,202*
723216-5100.03.220373840089,940*
713116-6100.01.0113546800111,022*
703117-5100.00.26295114100135,432*
693017-6100.00.022252222000159,640*
683018-599.90.011349335000185,712*
672918-699.6No07404291000209,909*
662919-598.6No032948163100233,766*
652819-696.1No0117482294000252,540*
642820-590.3No084023198100268,667*
632720-679.9No03281831155100277,407*
622721-564.5No0116103820123000282,249*
612621-646.8No07435192210200280,576*
602622-530.3No031261427217100272,553*
592522-617.1No010167243017400259,469*
582523-58.7No000831632271120240,984*
572423-64.0No00041926342160220,377*
562424-51.7No00204173330122196,706*
552324-60.6No0010192736224171,874*
542325-50.2No0000041837319146,840*
532225-60.1No0000211314016123,214*
522226-50.1No000016244426100,583*
512126-60.0No0000317443680,958*
502127-50.0No000111414763,865*
492027-60.0No0007355748,499*
482028-50.0No0004296736,474*
471928-60.0No002237526,865*
461929-5OutNo01188119,362*
451829-6OutNo1138613,663*
441830-5OutNo09909,512*
431730-6OutNo006946,305*
421731-5OutNo05954,174*
411631-6OutNo3972,727*
401632-5OutNo2981,714*
391532-6OutNo1991,053*
381533-5OutNo199594*
371433-6OutNo199362*
361434-5OutNo0100211*
3-35OutNo100648*
Total:53.4%1.7%46131561157887754,793,746

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Ottawa finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupMontrealCalgaryTampa BayTorontoFloridaCarolinaWinnipegNashvilleDallasDetroitColumbusVancouverEdmontonChicago
109530-05.7%19232020712
95445-4NoYes
92437-3No2020202020
91427-4No83181588158
90428-317.4171717224949
89418-44.8141917521751075
88408-53.3151812021134311281
87409-48.3201031425181233982
86399-55.61516218331622231070
853910-46.21415215311634528102
843810-55.8141531723163223892
833710-66.31515316321433328102
823711-55.8151431533153333992
813611-66.4141331533154343982
803612-56.1141331544144443982
793512-66.2131441344154443882
783513-56.6131341444135543772
773413-66.1131341344135544772
763414-56.6131341345135554772
753314-66.3131341455135554762
743315-56.0141441455135544662
733215-65.9151541545135443652
723216-55.8161641544134443552
713116-65.7171831733144332551
703117-55.5191931833153322551
693017-65.5202021922162221551
683018-55.1212122022172111660
672918-65.0212122011161111660
662919-54.8212121922161111660
652819-64.7202031832152211550
2718-84.5191941733142211550
642820-54.3181741543123211440
632720-63.815156125493311330
622721-53.01211695473311220
612621-62.298564342210110
602622-51.466342232110000
592522-60.844121111100000
582523-50.422110010000000
572423-60.211010000000000
562424-50.100000000000000
552425-40.00000000000000
542426-30.000000000000000
532326-40.0000000000
522327-30.0000000
512227-40.0000000
502329-10.0000000
492229-20.0000
481927-7No0
472130-2No0
3-46No
Total:2.7%10.310.22.48.92.11.97.31.71.51.00.72.52.50.3
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Ottawa 3 Winnipeg 4 (ot)+0.5
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Toronto vs Edmonton+0.0+0.1+0.1-0.0+0.1-0.1
Vancouver vs Montreal-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
92-109100
91427-4928
88-90100
87409-49911
86399-59810
853910-49820
843810-597110
833710-695220
823711-592431
813611-6887401
803612-58111602
793512-6731410030
783513-564181305000
773413-652231707000
763414-5382722111000
753314-62628263151100
743315-51627285192101000
733215-68232792343020000
723216-531723142386040000
713116-61101718201312180000
703117-50510191417172121101000
693017-6024177182161643020000
683018-50111221419131697040000
672918-600708131912151428110000
662919-50030362051719712430100
652819-60010121511218161210813000
642820-5000008061024715154720000
632720-600030242231518139731000
622721-50001001150914247129520000
612621-600007046293101513831000
602622-50003012241511171712620000
592522-60001001601511182015931000
582523-5000080014101721191252000
572423-6000040001391722211462000
562424-5002000138162323167200
552324-600100013816242416720
542325-50000001381725251551
532225-60000139202825123
522226-50000014122430227
512126-6000001617313113
502127-50000210273823
492027-600015204034
482028-50002133846
471928-600183358
461929-50042768
451829-60022177
441830-5011683
431730-6001089
421731-50892
411631-60595
401632-5496
391532-6298
381533-5298
371433-6199
361434-5199
351435-4199
3-34100
Total:2233233433452347223333444443333