Dallas Stars Playoff Chances

Lost to Calgary 1-2, playoff odds down 6.4 to 14%
26 points   10 11-6

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs
Dallas 1 Calgary 2 -4.7
St. Louis 3 Montreal 2 (ot)-0.3
New Jersey 3 Vancouver 2 +0.2
Nashville 4 Colorado 3 -0.1
Winnipeg 3 Detroit 4 (so)*+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs
Anaheim vs Carolina-0.2-0.2-0.2*+0.1+0.2+0.4
Toronto vs Minnesota+0.2*+0.0*-0.0*-0.1*-0.1-0.1
San Jose vs Ottawa-0.1*-0.1*-0.1*-0.0*+0.0+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Dallas finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
117-136In99.9%100705*
114418-6In80.080205*
1134210-3In37.57513138*
112409-6In36.491911*
111399-7In44.092825*
1103910-6In23.18541252*
1093911-5In25.577515398*
1083811-6In11.0669242219*
1073711-7In6.06114214383*
1063712-6In3.94616344699*
1053612-7In1.7371737811,148*
1043613-6In0.629174211101,894*
1033513-7In0.018184517203,125*
1023514-6In0.011174622405,129*
1013414-7InNo7144329607,884*
1003415-6100.0%No3114134101012,189*
993315-7100.0No173440162018,231*
983316-699.9No152841224026,171*
973216-799.7No0321412870037,242*
963116-899.3No02143835111051,919*
953117-798.3No01933381720069,779*
943017-896.0No00627382540092,737*
933018-791.3No03203632810120,028*
922918-883.7No0214303914200151,617*
912919-772.7No019224122500188,680*
902819-858.8No00615383010100229,059*
892820-743.9No0039323617300272,288*
882720-829.8No0024243825710315,337*
872721-718.4No01216353313200358,386*
862621-810.2No0019293720400398,230*
852622-75.0No0005213828710435,506*
842522-82.3No00021435351320464,892*
832523-70.9No0001828392040483,073*
822423-80.3No0000421402771494,404*
812424-70.1No0002143734121493,371*
802324-80.0No000193239183483,428*
792325-70.0No000052541245463,275*
782225-80.0No0031840318434,309*
772226-70.0No00112363813399,474*
762126-8OutNo018314218359,952*
752127-7OutNo005254525316,306*
742027-8OutNo003194533272,738*
732028-7OutNo001144342229,921*
721928-8OutNo0194050189,665*
711929-7OutNo0063558152,826*
701829-8OutNo043066121,539*
691830-7OutNo02247393,956*
681730-8OutNo01197970,674*
671731-7OutNo01158452,067*
661732-6OutNo00118937,743*
651632-7OutNo089226,533*
641633-6OutNo069418,503*
631533-7OutNo049612,409*
621534-6OutNo03978,146*
611434-7OutNo2985,327*
601435-6OutNo1993,323*
591335-7OutNo1992,076*
581336-6OutNo1991,164*
571236-7OutNo0100743*
561237-6OutNo199377*
26-55OutNo1001,182*
Total:14.0%0.0%0012471014171816128,492,180

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Dallas finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupChicagoMinnesotaSan JoseSt. LouisEdmontonNashvilleAnaheimLos AngelesCalgaryWinnipegVancouverColoradoArizona
136550-01.7%101121451785914220
117448-3No5050
114429-4No2020202020
1134210-312.5251325131313
112409-6No18918991818
111399-7No2082420412444
1103910-61.915828627688122
1093911-52.017123113263561021
1083811-60.917162161234449210
1073711-70.316162225174555111
1063712-61.118192202194446110
1053612-70.418192213202337111
1043613-61.021222202183335010
1033513-70.922232212183225000
1023514-60.924222232162214000
1013414-70.524243222162213000
1003415-60.824244223152213000
993315-70.624236204152213000
983316-60.723228204133313000
973216-70.7222210185133312000
963116-80.7212012167114412000
953117-70.6202014157104412000
943017-80.719191614894511000
2916-100.519191514895511000
933018-70.618181612884511000
3119-50.618181612884411000
922918-80.517171611764411000
2817-100.617161610764411000
912919-70.51515149653300000
3020-50.51515159653311000
902819-80.41212127543300000
2920-60.41312137543300000
2718-100.41212127543300000
892820-70.3910105432200000
2719-90.39995332200000
2921-50.31010105432200000
882821-60.27773221100000
2619-100.26763221100000
872721-70.14442111100000
862722-60.12221110000000
852622-70.01111000000000
842623-60.01110000000000
832523-70.00000000000000
822524-60.00000000000
812424-70.0000000000
802425-60.0000000000
792325-70.000000000
782326-6No0000
772226-7No00
26-76No
Total:0.1%3.02.92.61.91.11.10.60.60.10.10.00.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Dallas 1 Calgary 2 +0.9
NY Islanders 4 NY Rangers 2 +0.0
Winnipeg 3 Detroit 4 (so)+0.0
WednesdayNone

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
136550-0100
117448-35050
114418-68020
1134210-338381313
112409-636559
111399-744488
1103910-62362412
1093911-52651411053
1083811-611556220410
1073711-76559515630
1063712-64421062112040
1053612-72359916201711
1043613-61287101525109210
1033513-701851310314012520
1023514-6011314634411480400
1013414-77212333621514006100
1003415-631101297412211092100
993315-71070226692920114200
983316-61050145853241139300
973216-700308392325113166100
963116-80024291286310248310
953117-7001217021667311072000
943017-80010501359335101531000
933018-7000307310134825521000
922918-800024190295346531000
912919-700010207022239687410000
902819-800010501513849121052000
892820-7000003090322612151262000
882720-8000002402413916191472000
872721-7000120160141220211562000
862621-80001900161523231461000
852622-7000500028182523135100
842522-80002001310202722113100
832523-7000100014132427208200
822423-8000000001616272716510
812424-7000000292130241120
802324-8000000141327301951
792325-70000017203227112
782225-800003132933183
772226-70000172336267
762126-8000416343412
752127-7000210304018
742027-80016244327
732028-7003184336
721928-8002124145
711929-70183754
701829-80053163
691830-70032671
681730-8022178
671731-7011683
661732-6001288
651632-70991
641633-60694
631533-70496
621534-60397
611434-7298
601435-6199
591335-7199
581336-6199
571236-70100
561237-6199
26-55100
Total:0000000001010316112235678910111110