Dallas Stars Playoff Chances

Lost to Boston 1-2 (ot), playoff odds down 1.5 to 65.4%
17 points   8 5-1

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Monday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Washington 4 Edmonton 2 +0.2
Boston 2 Dallas 1 (ot)*-0.1
*+0.1
-0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Arizona vs Philadelphia-0.2*-0.2*-0.1*+0.1*+0.3+0.3
-0.0*-0.0*+0.0*-0.0*+0.0+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Columbus vs Dallas-4.6-0.4-0.3+3.8+4.3+4.3
-0.3*-0.1*-0.1+0.2+0.3+0.3
-0.8-0.2-0.2+0.6+0.7+0.8
St. Louis vs Carolina-0.3-0.4*-0.2*+0.1*+0.1+0.5
Detroit vs Vancouver+0.4*-0.0*+0.2*-0.2-0.3-0.4
Tampa Bay vs Edmonton+0.3*+0.1*-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.4
-0.1*-0.0*-0.0*+0.0*+0.0+0.1
Toronto vs Vegas+0.3*+0.1*-0.0*-0.1*-0.2-0.4
Los Angeles vs Anaheim+0.3*-0.2*-0.2*-0.2-0.3-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Dallas finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
124-153InYes100525*
1235012-6In98.4%991126*
1224912-7In99.3100274*
1214913-6In98.3991418*
1204813-7In98.39901709*
1194814-6In96.598021,218*
1184714-7In94.5970301,819*
1174614-8In92.995142,740*
1164615-7In88.293164,031*
1154616-6In85.7921706,219*
1144516-7In78.78821008,710*
1134416-8In71.683314012,363*
1124417-7In63.2774181016,810*
1114317-8In53.7725221022,951*
1104318-7In44.3657272030,521*
1094218-8In33.2569323039,364*
1084219-7In23.847103850050,247*
1074119-8In15.438124280062,644*
1064120-7In8.7291346111077,150*
1054020-8In4.5211449152092,776*
1044021-7In1.91413502130110,334*
1033921-8100.0%0.79124826500128,342*
1023922-7100.00.25104532710145,068*
1013822-8100.00.02840371110163,037*
1003823-799.90.01634411620179,412*
993723-899.80.004274222400194,180*
983724-799.3No022141287100206,295*
973624-898.2No01153832122000215,194*
963625-795.7No01103333184000220,694*
953525-890.8No0062732258100222,094*
943526-782.1No04212730144100221,002*
933426-869.4No021520322182000214,534*
923427-753.6No0110132927144100204,486*
913327-836.9No007723302292000193,433*
903328-722.5No004315282816510179,568*
893228-812.3No021922302310200162,483*
883229-75.8No010415272917510145,823*
873129-82.5No010292231241020127,721*
863130-70.9No000141528301740110,170*
853030-80.3No0000292333248193,974*
843031-70.1No0001417323114278,986*
832931-80.0No0000211273521464,569*
822932-70.0No00016213729752,459*
812832-8OutNo0031535361141,228*
802833-7OutNo0011031411732,361*
792733-8OutNo01625452425,133*
782734-7OutNo00319453218,902*
772634-8OutNo00214434014,037*
762635-7OutNo0110414910,407*
752535-8OutNo0636587,366*
742536-7OutNo0432645,213*
732436-8OutNo0228693,597*
722437-7OutNo0121782,379*
712337-8OutNo0117821,601*
702338-7OutNo113871,105*
692238-8OutNo1090724*
682239-7OutNo892431*
672139-8OutNo0496273*
662140-7OutNo595153*
652040-8OutNo29897*
642041-7OutNo39761*
17-63OutNo100415*
Total:65.4%2.8%631518131087654314,230,956

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Dallas finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupNashvilleColoradoArizonaMinnesotaCalgarySan JoseEdmontonWinnipegVancouverAnaheimSt. LouisVegasChicagoLos Angeles
153680-07.7%41131457915685552
135577-4NoYes
130549-5No5050
129539-625.025252525
128529-714.34314141414
127519-810.01510151052010105
1265211-55.311161155555111611
1255111-613.327277911167291192
1245011-77.971561037298686122
1235012-65.651541066812749394
1224912-75.85961257814867563
1214913-66.941641157816757460
1204813-76.851451456614659551
1194814-67.161151476614668482
1184714-77.161351466615548371
1174614-87.451251366614768472
1164615-76.351351356614758481
1154616-66.751251356615668571
1144516-76.761341556616657471
1134416-86.961441556515658461
1124417-76.571541645515557371
1114317-86.981641645515547361
1104318-76.591841744415447361
1094218-86.3111931844415437351
1084219-76.6122031933315336251
1074119-86.4142122033315336251
1064120-76.3152222123315325251
1054020-86.2172322122215225140
1044021-75.9182322222215215140
1033921-85.9192422222215214140
1023922-75.7192432222215214130
1013822-85.6202332132214214130
1003823-75.5192242043314214130
993723-85.4192161943313213130
983724-75.4192071854412313130
973624-85.2201881665510313120
963625-75.121179156559312120
953525-84.821159137558312120
943526-74.321138116546312110
933426-83.62010795445211110
923427-72.8178574333211010
913327-82.0136442222100000
903328-71.183231111100000
893228-80.652111101000000
883229-70.321010000000000
873129-80.110000000000000
863130-70.00000000000000
853030-80.0000000000000
843031-70.00000000000
832931-80.0000000
822730-11No0000
17-81No
Total:3.6%13.812.64.111.43.22.62.57.51.71.02.20.71.90.2
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Monday100.0*Lottery seed
NY Islanders 3 Montreal 4 (so)+0.0
Boston 2 Dallas 1 (ot)+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Columbus vs Dallas+0.9+0.1+0.1-0.7-0.8-0.8
San Jose vs Minnesota-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
124-153100
1235012-69811
1224912-7991
1214913-69801
1204813-798001
1194814-696102
1184714-7952030
1174614-893314
1164615-788516
1154616-6866170
1144516-77992100
1134416-87211301400
1124417-7631440180010
1114317-8541850220010
1104318-7442070260020
1094218-8332390311030
1084219-7242310135205000
1074119-81522111383180000
1064120-79201123961110010
1054020-8416113379201500200
1044021-7212943213402010300
1033921-8187525176024205000
1023922-7055517199028317010
1013822-8023591911129620110100
1003823-70114416112271030161200
993723-800131121042214602114000
983724-7002078614189024370100
973624-800104567181212571202000
963625-7001012631513322111714000
953525-8000011511011616162238100
943526-70000305889182371341000
933426-80002024941718131992000
923427-70001012811211182116720000
913327-8000001607518172115720000
903328-7000040311410192216831000
893228-800020108412212216931000
883229-700010041513212318104100
873129-8001002015132123181041000
863130-7000010025132124191141000
853030-800000002513212419104100
843031-70000002613222519103100
832931-800000027152325188200
822932-7000002717252516610
812832-800013102027231230
802833-700151324292081
792733-80027182928133
782734-70013112532225
772634-8001719332910
762635-700313313716
752535-80028254124
742536-7015194332
732436-803144043
722437-70193852
712337-80163361
702338-7042769
692238-822177
682239-711980
672139-811188
662140-7892
652040-8694
642041-71090
631840-10496
17-62100
Total:3321653275428564544333322221110