Colorado Avalanche Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.7 to 79.2%
17 points   7 4-3

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Monday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy
Washington 4 Edmonton 2 +0.3
+0.1
Boston 2 Dallas 1 (ot)*+0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Arizona vs Philadelphia-0.1-0.2*-0.1*+0.1*-0.1+0.3
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy
St. Louis vs Carolina-0.2*-0.2-0.3*+0.2*+0.1+0.4
Columbus vs Dallas+0.3*-0.1*-0.1-0.3-0.2-0.3
Detroit vs Vancouver+0.3*+0.1*+0.0-0.3-0.3-0.3
Tampa Bay vs Edmonton+0.2*-0.0*+0.0-0.3-0.3-0.2
-0.1-0.2*-0.1*+0.1*-0.0+0.2
Los Angeles vs Anaheim+0.2*-0.1*+0.1-0.3*-0.2-0.2
San Jose vs Minnesota+0.1*-0.2-0.3*-0.2*-0.2*+0.0
Toronto vs Vegas+0.2*+0.0*+0.0*-0.2*-0.2-0.2
-0.1*-0.1*-0.1*+0.0*-0.0+0.1
NY Rangers vs Montreal+0.1*+0.0*-0.0*-0.0-0.2*-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Colorado finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
128-153InYes100449*
1275210-6In98.9%99189*
124-126In99.9100826*
1235012-6In99.31000693*
1225013-5In99.110001,176*
1214913-6In97.999011,906*
1204813-7In96.998022,913*
1194814-6In95.898024,270*
1184714-7In93.8960306,408*
1174715-6In91.1951409,276*
1164615-7In88.09316012,964*
1154616-6In82.99019018,116*
1144516-7In78.187211024,148*
1134517-6In71.0833140032,011*
1124417-7In61.777418141,796*
1114418-6In52.7716231052,960*
1104318-7In43.2647272066,884*
1094319-6In32.2559333081,556*
1084219-7In22.94711384097,571*
1074119-8In14.8381343600115,007*
1064120-7In8.6291447910133,606*
1054020-8100.0%4.321155014100151,646*
1044021-7100.01.914145118200168,644*
1033921-8100.00.69135124400184,048*
1023922-7100.00.25114830600198,650*
1013822-8100.00.0394435910210,158*
1003823-799.90.016384014200217,933*
993723-899.80.004314219300223,125*
983724-799.5No032442246100222,734*
973624-898.5No0218402910100220,532*
963625-796.1No01123631163000213,129*
953525-891.2No0083130237100202,295*
943526-782.6No05242628134100189,198*
933426-869.7No031819302082000174,617*
923427-753.9No0112132727144100157,794*
913327-837.1No01872129229200139,879*
903328-722.8No0053142728166100122,602*
893228-812.3No0031821292411300106,394*
883229-75.8No01041427291861088,646*
873129-82.5No01028213025112074,436*
863130-70.9No00014142830185060,112*
853030-80.3No000282233269148,330*
843031-70.1No0001415313215238,548*
832931-80.0No00029263622530,179*
822932-70.0No0015193730822,419*
812832-8OutNo0031334371317,171*
802833-7OutNo01928422012,746*
792733-8OutNo0052345279,407*
782734-7OutNo0031745366,598*
772634-8OutNo021243434,662*
762635-7OutNo1839523,251*
752535-8OutNo0633612,133*
742536-7OutNo0330671,451*
732436-8OutNo12376928*
722336-9OutNo11881590*
712337-8OutNo11287387*
702338-7OutNo1288248*
692339-6OutNo1189159*
682239-7OutNo199093*
17-67OutNo100459*
Total:79.2%6.3%115232111865432114,230,956

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Colorado finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupNashvilleArizonaMinnesotaCalgaryDallasSan JoseEdmontonWinnipegVancouverAnaheimSt. LouisVegasChicagoLos Angeles
153680-012.4%458812771399577
134-13550.0Yes
133568-450.05050
132536-916.73317171717
131559-4No14777147147714
130538-725.02581725888
1295410-412.54441313881713844
1285310-53.9881016610228248
1275210-611.22210481141512109281
1265211-513.164771179177411632
1255111-67.92875156814777590
1245011-79.26598108712858582
1235012-612.146105136515779562
1225013-511.245107116715777562
1214913-611.145117127713758481
1204813-711.355116136712768672
1194814-610.846116137713768571
1184714-710.445116136714768472
1174715-610.145126137613768572
1164615-710.245136146614758472
1154616-610.455136146614658471
1144516-710.655146146614658471
1134517-610.554155146615658471
1124417-710.464165155515658461
1114418-610.174175155515547461
1104318-710.184184165515547361
1094319-69.993194164415437361
1084219-79.8113213174416436351
1074119-89.7123223173316336251
1064120-79.6132233183316326251
1054020-89.3152242192216226250
1044021-79.1162252192217225140
1033921-89.0172252192217215140
1023922-78.8182252192217215140
1013822-88.7183252192216215140
1003823-78.5184243183216215140
993723-88.3185234173315214140
983724-78.2196225164414214130
973624-88.2197205154413314130
963625-77.9208186135511313130
953525-87.4218166115510313120
943526-76.72181369448312120
933426-85.52071157446211110
923427-74.3175845334111010
913327-82.9134524223101010
903328-71.882312112000000
893329-61.051211111000000
883229-70.520101000000000
873230-60.210000000000000
863130-70.100000000000000
853131-60.00000000000000
843031-70.000000000
833032-6No0000
822932-7No00
17-81No
Total:6.9%14.54.016.53.312.62.92.911.12.21.43.61.03.00.3
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Monday100.0*Lottery seed
Boston 2 Dallas 1 (ot)-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
San Jose vs Minnesota-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Columbus vs Dallas-0.1*+0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
128-153100
1275210-6991
1265211-5100
1255111-61000
1245011-7100
1235012-69900
1225013-59910
1214913-698101
1204813-797102
1194814-696202
1184714-7942030
1174715-6914140
1164615-78851600
1154616-68371900
1144516-778921100
1134517-6711230140000
1124417-762154018001
1114418-6531860220010
1104318-7432170270020
1094319-6322390321030
1084219-7232411135200400
1074119-815231213841060000
1064120-79211223961090010
1054020-84171133710301300100
1044021-721210432145018102000
1033921-8188525187022104000
1023922-70556172110126316000
1013822-8033610211212762090100
1003823-701254171332610401302000
993723-800141131252115601713000
983724-70020897141810021360100
973624-80010468719132226100100
963625-7001023831614420111513000
953525-8000011611012714162037100
943526-70004069108182171341000
933426-8000303511316171318930000
923427-70000101291121018201682000
913327-800010170741716211682100
903328-7000005031139182216831000
893228-8000030108311202217941000
883229-7000100414122023181141000
873129-80001002015122023191151000
863130-7000010015122024201251000
853030-8000001512202420114100
843031-70000001513212520114100
832931-80000026132226199300
822932-70002715252617610
812832-80001391927241340
802833-700141223292181
792733-80017172829143
782734-70012102433237
772634-801619313111
762635-700313303617
752535-8018224226
742536-7004184135
732436-802124146
722336-9173656
712337-853362
702338-733067
692339-612475
682239-731681
672139-81288
662140-7793
17-65100
Total:65321064295427453432222111111000