Colorado Avalanche Playoff Chances

Lost to Nashville 3-4, playoff odds down 2.4 to 5.4%
19 points   9 14-1

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs
Nashville 4 Colorado 3 -1.8
Winnipeg 3 Detroit 4 (so)*+0.1
New Jersey 3 Vancouver 2 +0.1
Buffalo 4 Edmonton 3 (ot)*+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs
Anaheim vs Carolina-0.1-0.1*-0.1*+0.1*+0.0+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Colorado finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
111-135In99.9%100705*
110429-7In60.080205*
1094311-4In27.37318911*
1084110-7In28.07282025*
1074010-8In7.3631515741*
1064011-7In9.2511432365*
1054012-6In0.93821383117*
1043912-7In1.2291742102259*
1033913-6InNo241645141438*
1023813-7InNo1518441930766*
1013713-8InNo10154723501,274*
1003714-7InNo5124530702,070*
993614-8100.0%No29383712203,406*
983615-7100.0No17314018305,366*
973515-899.9No04244224508,098*
963516-799.6No031739329012,352*
953416-898.8No01123537141018,028*
943417-797.1No073038213026,316*
933317-893.3No0423372961036,701*
923318-786.8No02163236122050,597*
913218-876.7No011125401940067,769*
903219-763.5No007173927810089,128*
893119-848.2No00410343415300114,571*
883120-733.3No026263723610144,481*
873020-820.9No001317353012200178,876*
863021-711.6No00110293519400216,678*
852921-85.8No0005213627910255,774*
842922-72.6No00021433341520297,300*
832822-81.0No001827372250340,025*
822823-70.4No000419372991376,992*
812723-80.1No0002133335152412,631*
802724-70.0No000182739224443,101*
792624-80.0No0042040296464,458*
782625-70.0No00214373611478,199*
772525-8OutNo019324216481,844*
762526-7OutNo006264523475,396*
752426-8OutNo003204630460,350*
742427-7OutNo002154539437,991*
732327-8OutNo01104247407,896*
722328-7OutNo0073756371,329*
712228-8OutNo0043264332,330*
702229-7OutNo022771289,944*
692129-8OutNo0012177248,538*
682130-7OutNo011782209,195*
672030-8OutNo001387172,383*
662031-7OutNo001090139,855*
651931-8OutNo0793110,153*
641932-7OutNo059585,268*
631832-8OutNo039764,511*
621833-7OutNo029848,448*
611733-8OutNo29834,628*
601734-7OutNo19924,644*
591634-8OutNo19917,480*
581635-7OutNo010011,720*
571535-8OutNo01007,917*
561536-7OutNo01004,997*
551537-6OutNo01003,184*
541437-7OutNo01002,007*
19-53OutNo1003,549*
Total:5.4%0.0%00011358121723298,492,180

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Colorado finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupChicagoMinnesotaSan JoseSt. LouisEdmontonNashvilleAnaheimLos AngelesCalgaryWinnipegDallasVancouverArizona
135580-00.6%13112175148679521
1114410-4No5050
110429-7No2020202020
1094311-4No1818927189
1084110-7No824124820444444
1074010-8No12723271551225
1064011-7No17173221595283
1054012-6No152120317452951
1043912-71.225191183173333201
1033913-61.123192212183236200
1023813-70.823232192182414210
1013713-81.024232202191214100
1003714-70.823223222172213100
993614-81.026235203162213100
983615-70.524227194152213100
973515-80.722228185143313100
963516-70.6212112166133412100
953416-80.7202014157124412100
943316-90.7201915148104511000
3417-70.7192015147104511100
933317-80.718191612794411000
3418-60.6181916137104411000
923318-70.617171711774411000
3217-90.617171610774411000
3419-50.617171711774411000
913218-80.51516169763401000
3319-60.51616169764411000
3117-100.61515159653311000
903219-70.51413148553300000
3118-90.41313137553300000
3320-50.41414147653300000
3017-110.41213137543300000
893119-80.31011115432200000
3220-60.31111115442200000
3018-100.3910105432200000
883120-70.27884321100000
3019-90.26773221100000
3221-50.2777332110000
873020-80.14552211100000
3121-60.1555221110000
863021-70.13331110000000
852921-80.01111000000000
842922-70.01110000000000
832822-80.0000000000000
822823-70.0000000000
812824-60.0000000000000
802724-7No00000000
792624-8No000000
782524-9No000
19-77No
Total:0.0%1.11.21.10.70.40.40.20.20.00.00.00.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Nashville 4 Colorado 3 +0.5
Chicago 4 Arizona 0 -0.0
New Jersey 3 Vancouver 2 -0.0
WednesdayNone

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
135580-0100
1114410-45050
110429-7602020
1094311-42745189
1084110-72844820
1074010-87561221227
1064011-79429525623
1054012-6137912211721
1043912-71288919240912
1033913-624511132931041
1023813-71551353530145300
1013713-8104114365214100400
1003714-751112347312171610
993614-8208027751124293100
983615-71070166863130117300
973515-800401149334411213410
963516-7003629130631121720
953416-8013180246582995100
943417-701060175843410112000
933317-8000410310235820421000
923318-700025190325316421000
913218-800012180253376763100
903219-700001060171384911841000
893119-80000040100342713141041000
883120-7000260261410171711510000
873020-80000130170151320201251000
863021-700011000271623211251000
852921-8000500139192521124100
842922-700020001411212620103100
832822-800100015142426198200
822823-70000002717262616510
812723-8000000392129241130
802724-7000000141326301961
792624-80000027193128122
782625-700003122733204
772525-8000162035298
762526-7000314333614
752426-80018274221
742427-700004214430
732327-8002154340
722328-7001104049
712228-80063559
702229-70042967
692129-80022375
682130-7011881
672030-8011485
662031-7001089
651931-800792
641932-70595
631832-80496
621833-70397
611733-8298
601734-70199
591634-8199
581635-70100
571535-80100
561536-70100
551537-60100
541437-70100
19-53100
Total:0000000000000103001123346710131825