Colorado Avalanche Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.07 to 53.8%
19 points   9 7-1

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

FridayNone
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Nashville vs Colorado-5.4-0.7-0.6+4.5+5.1+5.7
-0.2-0.0-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
-0.2-0.0-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Pittsburgh vs Chicago+0.7+0.1+0.1-0.5-0.6-0.6
Washington vs Minnesota+0.6+0.1+0.1-0.4-0.6-0.5
Dallas vs Edmonton-0.2-0.4-0.3*+0.0*+0.0+0.5
Winnipeg vs New Jersey-0.3-0.2-0.3+0.1+0.1+0.5
Philadelphia vs Calgary+0.3*+0.0*-0.0-0.3-0.4-0.4
San Jose vs Boston-0.2-0.2-0.2+0.1+0.1+0.4
Vancouver vs St. Louis-0.1-0.3-0.2-0.1-0.1+0.2
Los Angeles vs Florida-0.1-0.2-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.3
Tampa Bay vs NY Islanders-0.0-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Colorado finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
125-149In99.9%10014,600*
124499-7In95.61000639*
1234910-6In94.81001,193*
1224911-5In92.010002,280*
1214811-6In89.5100004,105*
1204711-7In85.199017,246*
1194712-6In81.19901012,654*
1184612-7In77.4980121,326*
1174613-6In71.59712034,869*
1164513-7In65.19613055,856*
1154514-6In58.89424088,274*
1144414-7In50.891360135,176*
1134415-6In42.8874900202,539*
1124315-7In34.58351200297,836*
1114316-6In26.67771610428,035*
1104216-7In19.47092010601,470*
1094217-6In13.161122520826,347*
1084117-7In8.15214313001,113,404*
1074017-8In4.54216365001,471,769*
1064018-7In2.23217418101,901,102*
1053918-8100.0%0.9231845131002,410,600*
1043919-7100.00.3161747182003,001,504*
1033819-8100.00.11015472440003,656,128*
1023820-7100.00.0513453071004,370,581*
1013720-899.90.03104035111005,125,651*
1003721-799.80.0173439163005,897,059*
993621-899.60.00427412250006,667,474*
983622-798.9No03204028910007,385,345*
973522-897.4No011436331420008,032,228*
963523-794.3No01930342151008,579,609*
953423-888.4No0052332281020009,001,667*
943424-778.8No0031727331741009,268,176*
933324-865.4No00111193424820009,366,379*
923325-749.5No0171230301541009,297,912*
913225-833.6No004723322392009,076,708*
903226-720.2No0023153029165108,691,420*
893126-810.7No0011823312392008,182,703*
883127-75.0No00004162930164007,566,071*
873027-82.1No0000292432248106,875,254*
863028-70.7No0001517313114206,132,142*
852928-80.2No0000210263521405,378,923*
842929-70.1No000016203629804,631,286*
832829-80.0No000031433361303,919,161*
822830-70.0No00001828412003,257,605*
812730-80.0No0001522442812,664,131*
802731-70.0No000316433712,135,974*
792631-8OutNo00111404621,683,828*
782632-7OutNo0017355441,304,633*
772532-8OutNo00429616993,091*
762533-7OutNo00223668741,899*
752433-8OutNo001186912543,939*
742434-7OutNo01137115393,365*
732334-8OutNo0097020278,356*
722335-7OutNo0076825193,354*
712235-8OutNo046531131,970*
702236-7OutNo03613788,984*
692136-8OutNo02564358,362*
682137-7OutNo01504937,599*
672037-8OutNo1445523,840*
662038-7OutNo0396114,953*
651938-8OutNo034669,204*
641939-7OutNo029715,545*
631839-8OutNo024763,306*
621840-7OutNo18821,749*
611841-6OutNo17831,022*
601741-7OutNo1288582*
591742-6OutNo1090315*
581642-7OutNo694170*
571643-6OutNo69494*
561543-7OutNo59543*
551645-4OutNo49626*
19-54OutNo10013,996*
Total:53.8%0.6%331114121210988640174,316,636

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Colorado finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupSt. LouisLos AngelesWinnipegVegasSan JoseMinnesotaNashvilleChicagoAnaheimCalgaryVancouverDallasEdmontonArizona
149650-05.4%74114514141465592
134566-3NoYes
131536-6No255025
130548-310.020102010102010
129527-6No72129777714
128528-52.5351831315101533105
127529-42.633835191314188141
126508-78.1531338141613444113
125509-65.1721045131216656102
124499-74.963954131814574102
1234910-65.362133616131355592
1224911-55.6731135151415655820
1214811-65.9741145151513555920
1204711-75.4731135151515545920
1194712-65.4731235151514555920
1184612-75.5731135151514555920
1174613-65.4731235151514555920
1164513-75.4731234151514555920
1154514-65.5831234151515555920
1144414-75.3831334151515545920
1134415-65.4831334151514544920
1124315-75.3931434151514444820
1114316-65.31031534151514444820
1104216-75.21121634151514444820
1094217-65.21221723151514433710
1084117-75.11421823151513333710
1074017-85.01522023151513333610
1064018-74.81722122161413222610
1053918-84.81822222151412222610
1043919-74.61922322151412222510
1033819-84.52022322151412211500
1023820-74.42132332151411111400
1013720-84.32142332141311111400
1003721-74.32152253141210111400
993621-84.22162163131210211400
983622-74.1208207412119211300
973522-84.0209199511108211300
963523-73.8201018105987211200
953423-83.6201116105875211200
943424-73.219101495664211100
933324-82.61791184543111100
923325-72.0147963332111100
913225-81.3105642221100000
903226-70.863431111000000
893126-80.432211100000000
883127-70.221110000000000
873128-60.110000000000000
863028-70.000000000000000
853029-60.000000000000000
842929-70.000000000000000
832930-60.00000000000000
822931-50.0000000000
812831-60.000000
802731-7No0
19-79No
Total:2.3%11.84.510.64.22.36.05.44.51.00.80.81.70.20.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

FridayNone
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Nashville vs Colorado+0.9+0.1+0.1-0.8-0.9-1.0
Winnipeg vs New Jersey+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Washington vs Minnesota-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Pittsburgh vs Chicago-0.1+0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0
Vancouver vs St. Louis-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
129-149100
128528-5955
127529-4991
126508-7983
125509-6973
124499-79640
1234910-6955
1224911-59280
1214811-6901000
1204711-7851401
1194712-68118010
1184612-7772101
1174613-67126120
1164513-7653110300
1154514-6593520400
1144414-7514030600
1134415-643454090000
1124315-7344850120000
1114316-6275070151010
1104216-71950811910100
1094217-6134810123202000
1084117-78441222740030000
1074017-84381243061050000
1064018-723012530101080010
1053918-812311729142012001000
1043919-701599241940171020000
1033819-8010691822602220040000
1023820-7054912248125410701000
1013720-80328622102267101101000
1003721-701163171042412301613000
993621-800041128619175021250000
983622-70020757121981244901000
973522-80010337619922581402000
963523-7001011621594211320151000
953423-8000000419761517244102000
943424-700000205578192391651000
933324-8000001022731618162110310000
923325-700010115111102021188310000
913225-8000000030641917221783100000
903226-700000020311491922178310000
893126-800000101084122123179310000
883127-70000000004151321231810410000
873027-8000000020161321241810310000
863028-70000001002614222418931000
852928-80000000261523251882000
842929-700000000271624251672000
832829-80000000139182624145100
822830-70000000141122282210200
812730-80000001514262818610
802731-70000282030261220
792631-80000141327321950
782632-700001721342890
772532-80003143135151
762533-7000282639232
752433-8000152040314
742434-700021438397
732334-80019344611
722335-7005285115
712235-8003225421
702236-7002165428
692136-801125334
682137-70085041
672037-80054649
662038-7034156
651938-80023662
641939-713168
631839-812574
621840-7001980
611841-601882
601741-71486
591742-61189
581642-7793
571643-6694
561543-7595
551645-4892
19-54100
Total:1312342255227575654444433322110