Colorado Avalanche Playoff Chances

Tied with Carolina 0-0 (9:00 PM ET), playoff odds down 0.1 to 6.6%
17 points   6 9-5

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs
Edmonton 0 New Jersey 2 +0.1
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs
Ottawa 2 St. Louis 3 -0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Colorado vs Carolina+1.2+1.2+1.1-0.5-0.5-1.9
Calgary vs New Jersey-0.1-0.2*-0.1*+0.0*+0.1+0.2
Tampa Bay vs Minnesota+0.1*+0.0*+0.0-0.2*-0.1-0.2
Edmonton vs Chicago+0.1*+0.0*+0.0*-0.0-0.2-0.1
San Jose vs Arizona*-0.0-0.1*-0.1*-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Nashville vs Florida-0.1*-0.0*-0.0*+0.1*-0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Colorado finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
115-141InYes100378*
1144510-7In50.0%75254*
1134511-6In54.5829911*
1124310-9In20.07372015*
1114513-4In26.16592623*
1104312-7In18.2611224366*
1094212-8In10.1551723599*
1084213-7In10.254123031147*
1074113-8In3.936173791285*
1064114-7In1.2262042101496*
1054014-8In1.31917431820856*
1044015-7InNo10174523401,309*
1033915-8InNo5154329702,033*
1023916-7100.0%No312393412103,232*
1013816-8100.0No19343816204,827*
1003817-799.8No05264122506,963*
993717-899.6No032140289010,191*
983718-798.7No02143733131014,436*
973618-896.5No01931352030020,160*
963619-792.1No0525342871027,275*
953519-884.3No031829341320036,284*
943520-774.1No021322372051047,357*
933420-860.2No0181636281020060,090*
923421-745.0No005931341740075,075*
913321-830.2No003523362581093,048*
903322-718.3No0121533321420111,242*
893222-810.2No0119273622500131,296*
883122-95.0No0004203629910153,491*
873123-82.2No00021333361520173,520*
863023-90.9No001726392240192,791*
853024-80.3No000419392980211,045*
842924-90.1No0002133636131226,341*
832925-80.0No00183040192238,393*
822825-90.0No0052442264245,723*
812826-80.0No00021740337249,825*
802726-90.0No00112374010248,117*
792727-8OutNo018324515242,721*
782627-9OutNo005264821233,008*
772628-8OutNo003204928218,215*
762528-9OutNo01154836201,390*
752529-8OutNo01104544183,187*
742429-9OutNo0074152162,606*
732430-8OutNo0053659141,262*
722330-9OutNo033166122,159*
712331-8OutNo022673102,236*
702332-7OutNo01217883,633*
692232-8OutNo01168367,872*
682233-7OutNo0138653,615*
672133-8OutNo00109041,651*
662134-7OutNo079332,091*
652034-8OutNo059523,890*
642035-7OutNo049617,241*
631935-8OutNo39712,674*
621936-7OutNo2988,905*
611836-8OutNo1995,984*
601837-7OutNo1994,147*
591737-8OutNo01002,713*
581738-7OutNo1991,723*
571638-8OutNo01001,088*
561639-7OutNo0100699*
17-55OutNo1001,406*
Total:6.6%0.0%00012359141924224,552,560

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Colorado finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupNashvilleSt. LouisAnaheimChicagoLos AngelesMinnesotaCalgaryVancouverSan JoseWinnipegArizonaDallasEdmonton
141620-01.1%121361571176101022
1164710-5NoYes
1154812-2NoYes
1144510-7No25252525
1134511-69.12799189999
1124310-9No201377277777
1114513-4No944351313499
1104312-7No202321121155812222
1094212-8No1518521216632614
1084213-70.72219120411359321
1074113-81.41720418317442703
1064114-70.82216219219335612
1054014-80.820223203164226120
1044015-71.123193192203225010
1033915-81.022223193192225010
1023916-71.020214183204325010
1013816-81.021204184184415000
1003817-70.920216175164414010
993717-81.021196166165414010
983718-70.920188157156513000
973618-80.81917913813662300
3719-60.919179138136623010
963619-70.919159128127622000
3518-90.918168128127622000
953519-80.817149109107512000
3418-100.91714911810761200
943520-70.7151289896511000
3419-90.616128979651100
3621-50.815128989651100
933420-80.6131077675411000
3521-60.6131077675411000
3319-100.613107766541100
923421-70.511755554310000
3320-90.410755553311000
3522-50.410755554311000
913321-80.47533332200000
3422-60.38544343200000
3220-100.3653333220000
903322-70.24322221100000
893222-80.1321111110000
883223-70.01111110000000
873123-80.0100000000000
863124-70.0000000000000
853024-80.00000000000
843025-7No00000000000
833026-6No00000000
823027-5No00000000
812826-8No000
802726-9No0
17-79No
Total:0.1%1.41.10.70.80.60.80.50.40.10.10.00.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

FridayNone
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Colorado vs Carolina-0.4-0.4-0.4+0.2+0.2+0.7

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
115-141100
1144510-7502525
1134511-6552799
1124310-92053720
1114513-426394426
1104312-7184212243
1094212-810441432215
1084213-710447524631
1074113-8432116279191
1064114-71251283092010001
1054014-811789201760180020
1044015-710512172171211040
1033915-85312102491244170
1023916-73210621103248211010
1013816-81182171052113415120
1003817-700511187171760202500
993717-80030758102091225800
983718-70020338519112231012110
973618-80101272141141916182300
963619-70001409951420226710
953519-800030567722231112300
943520-7000102473191919177100
933420-800011251151224201451000
923421-70000140962519201141000
913321-80000205221132320103100
903322-70001021147182419103100
893222-8000110931122251883000
883122-900000415142425177200
873123-8000020271725241561000
863023-900010039202723124100
853024-8000001412232721103000
842924-90000016152527176100
832925-8000002819282513400
822825-9000014122429208200
812826-8000001617292814400
802726-90000311243122810
792727-8000151731291430
782627-900021126342160
772628-800016193429101
762528-90003133135162
752529-800182538234
742429-900041938316
732430-8000213363810
722330-90019314415
712331-8005264821
702332-7003204928
692232-8002144935
682233-701104643
672133-80074251
662134-70043759
652034-8033166
642035-7022771
631935-8012178
621936-701782
611836-801387
601837-701090
591737-80892
581738-7694
571638-8496
561639-7397
551539-8199
541540-7298
531440-8100
521441-7397
17-51100
Total:0000000000000112123445789111212105