Colorado Avalanche Playoff Chances

Beat Detroit 3-2 (so), playoff odds up 6.9 to 58.5%
62 points   29 25-4

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Detroit 2 Colorado 3 (so)+7.1
+0.1
No
Florida 3 St. Louis 5 -0.2
Tampa Bay 4 Nashville 3 (ot)-0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Arizona vs Calgary+0.5-0.3-0.3-0.4-0.7-0.3
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Minnesota vs Boston-1.4-1.5-1.2+0.5+0.4+2.0
Florida vs Nashville+1.4*-0.2-0.2-1.8-2.0-2.0
Vancouver vs Toronto-0.7-0.7-0.9+0.3*+0.2+1.3
Chicago vs Anaheim+0.5*-0.2*-0.1-0.6-0.7-0.7
San Jose vs Arizona+0.3*-0.0*-0.1-0.5-0.7-0.4
Edmonton vs Winnipeg+0.3*+0.1*+0.2*-0.2-0.4-0.4

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Colorado finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
110240-0In0.2%594343516
109230-1InNo2943297
108220-2InNo40501010*
107221-1InNo224512249*
106211-2InNo9345421130*
105212-1InNo6339502422*
104202-2InNo22365921,109*
103203-1InNo12286372,526*
102193-2InNo0120691005,858*
101183-3InNo00137016011,863*
100184-2InNo0086725022,732*
99174-3InNo046134040,005*
98175-2InNo025344167,566*
97165-3100.0%No01445410105,318*
96166-2100.0No003462300156,132*
95156-399.9No02569600217,253*
94157-299.6No018711100288,296*
93147-398.8No0117017100360,610*
92148-297.3No07652530201,616
137-496.7No066327300229,786*
91138-392.9No454357000235,916
149-192.9No045435700253,479*
90139-286.4No2434212100242,883
128-484.4No2404314200287,247*
89129-372.8No12844234000546,055*
881210-258.5No01741319100243,877
119-454.5No015393311200293,873*
871110-338.1No08303819400241,461
1211-138.0No08303819400261,233*
861111-223.6No03203828910204,284
1010-420.8No031837301110246,929*
851011-310.8No0110303619400184,308
1112-110.6No0110293619400200,478*
841012-24.2No0041937301010314,859*
83912-31.3No011030371830243,568*
82913-20.3No00420382980182,444*
81813-30.1No01113338151128,258*
80814-20.0No005244225386,539*
79714-3OutNo02154036755,924*
78715-2OutNo01833461334,123*
77615-3OutNo00324502319,592*
76616-2OutNo0115503410,839*
75516-3OutNo0945465,482*
74517-2OutNo0538572,802*
73417-3OutNo0229681,245*
72418-2OutNo12574567*
71318-3OutNo1783254*
70319-2OutNo99178*
65-69OutNo10043*
62024-0OutNo0100516
Total:58.5%0.0%00063022161184206,240,960

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Colorado finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupDallasChicagoLos AngelesSt. LouisSan JoseAnaheimNashvilleMinnesotaVancouverCalgaryArizonaWinnipegEdmonton
110240-02.3%152191513186732
109230-1No1443141414
108220-2No2030202010
107221-12.02943864244
106211-21.5324711154
105212-11.732481110041100
104202-21.3335321100100000
103203-11.230545900000
102193-21.33152881000000
101183-31.12950127200000
100184-21.22746186200000
99174-31.225422543100000
98175-21.2223632341000000
97165-31.1203239251000000
176-11.2203239251000000
96166-21.21927452610000000
155-41.2182646262000000
95156-31.2172251172000000
167-11.21822501720000000
94157-21.21819531720000000
146-41.21818531720000000
168-01.2181953172000000
93147-31.2191653172000000
158-11.31917541720000000
136-51.2201652182000000
92148-21.22215511720000000
137-41.22315501710000000
159-01.2231550171000000
91138-31.12615441610000000
149-11.22515461610000000
127-51.12715421610000000
90139-21.12815371510000000
128-41.02815361410000000
117-60.929143214100000
89129-30.92814261310000000
1310-10.9281428131000000
118-50.82813241310000000
881210-20.72512181200000000
119-40.62411161200000000
871110-30.41881011000000
1211-10.4188101100000000
861111-20.312550000000000
1010-40.21155000000000
851011-30.163200000000
841012-20.021100000000
83912-30.010000000
82913-20.0000000
81813-30.000000
80814-2No000
62-79No
Total:0.7%17.211.724.80.83.20.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday100.0*Lottery seed
Detroit 2 Colorado 3 (so)-0.8
Florida 3 St. Louis 5 +0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Florida vs Nashville-0.1*+0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Minnesota vs Boston+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Vancouver vs Toronto+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
San Jose vs Arizona-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
110240-005930343
109230-1294329
108220-2405010
107221-1222243822
106211-293378421
105212-162132614902
104202-2211211415712
103203-1111131416037
102193-2000712106270100
101183-30003910581201600
100184-200016104720002500
99174-30031134270033100
98175-20010020321040410
97165-3001001032104310100
96166-200004282142203000
95156-30001212235345100
94157-20001413244892000
93147-300071313571161000
92148-200040366011142000
137-400303558111531000
91138-310225392642100
149-1010225282742100
90139-21010425376521000
128-40010405386631000
89129-300102824261083100
881210-20000171414111493000
119-400001503941115104100
871110-30008030291819103100
1211-10008030281819113100
861111-20301914142421103000
851011-30101001719272110200
841012-20040021023292182000
83912-3010003132529197100
82913-20000151528291751000
81813-30001618302813300
80814-2000282232259200
79714-300312273220610
78715-20141732301330
77615-301823342581
76616-2003133233163
75516-30162137278
74517-20214343614
73417-316264324
72418-204184334
71318-30113553
70319-253263
69219-31486
68220-2991
65-67100
62024-0199
Total:00000000140162431824566543211000