Colorado Avalanche Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.4 to 78%
50 points   21 18-8

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Vancouver vs Buffalo-0.5-0.5-0.5+0.2+0.3+0.8
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Colorado vs Los Angeles+3.0+2.8+2.3-2.0-2.3-7.1
+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.1*-0.0-0.1
+0.0-0.0NoNoNoNo
Minnesota vs Columbus-0.7-0.7-0.7+0.2+0.2+1.0
Dallas vs Winnipeg-0.9-0.9-0.7*+0.1*+0.0+0.8
Edmonton vs Calgary-0.9-0.8-0.5*-0.0*+0.1+0.7
St. Louis vs Ottawa-0.4-0.5-0.3*+0.1+0.2+0.8
New Jersey vs Anaheim+0.4*+0.0*+0.0-0.5-0.3-0.4

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Colorado finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
120350-0In51.7%982474
115322-1In25.075254*
114312-2In13.3871315*
113302-3InNo41411834*
112303-2In1.6384120123*
111293-3In0.3274726312*
110294-2In0.22343331642*
109284-3In0.114424321,443*
108285-2In0.09394932,916*
107275-3InNo5345565,461*
106276-2InNo227611010,215*
105266-3InNo121631517,274*
104256-4InNo0156321028,582*
103257-3InNo0106129044,039*
102247-4InNo065538066,545*
101248-3InNo044947094,982*
100238-4InNo02415610131,747*
99239-3100.0%No013464200173,396*
98229-4100.0No12671300221,408*
972210-3100.0No01975500271,476*
962110-4100.0No01378900319,318*
952111-3100.0No09771310363,644*
942011-499.9No057318300401,222*
932012-399.4No0367236100425,732*
921912-498.3No02592711200437,261*
911913-395.4No1492818400433,093*
901813-489.7No03826259100414,392*
891814-380.0No0282130164000384,453*
881714-465.8No0201531249100346,031*
871715-349.2No0139283116400300,283*
861615-432.3No0852033259100252,349*
851616-318.5No04212293117400205,599*
841516-48.9No2162134269100161,663*
831517-33.7No010313293318400123,293*
821417-41.3No001621352781090,901*
811418-30.4No0002133135162065,132*
801318-40.1No000162338265045,008*
791319-30.0No00214363710129,943*
781219-40.0No00017294318219,698*
771220-3OutNo003194627412,127*
761120-4OutNo0112413697,423*
751121-3OutNo063444154,221*
741021-4OutNo032550222,372*
731022-3OutNo11751301,317*
72922-4OutNo0114841693*
71923-3OutNo54451375*
70823-4OutNo53263148*
69824-3OutNo277377*
68724-4OutNo336736*
67725-3OutNo79314*
66625-4OutNo50504*
65525-5OutNo50502
50-64OutNo100476*
Total:78.0%0.0%01844131186421005,919,388

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Colorado finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupCalgaryWinnipegSan JoseNashvilleVegasDallasMinnesotaEdmontonVancouverSt. LouisArizonaAnaheimLos AngelesChicago
120350-03.8%023181718151011410
115322-1No255025
114312-2No7733202077
113302-32.9183151518312153
112303-21.6219319131710727
111293-34.82126416121386841
110294-22.2303021615111154300
109284-31.84041117109744200
108285-22.46046115117534200
107275-32.7805211295433200
106276-22.5905911084322100
105266-32.00110631963221100
104256-42.30120680752221100
103257-32.00140700641111000
102247-42.00150730541110000
101248-31.90160740431010000
100238-41.90160750430010000
99239-31.80170750430010000
98229-41.81170750420010000
972210-31.81180740320010000
962110-41.8219172032001000
2211-21.8220172032001000
952111-31.7421169032001000
2010-51.7421169022000000
942011-41.8623265021000000
2112-21.7623166021000000
1910-61.772426402100000
932012-31.79262591210000000
1911-51.7925259121000000
921912-41.713273521110000000
2013-21.61227354111000000
1811-61.713283511110000000
911913-31.616293451110000000
1812-51.617294441100000000
901813-41.520284351000000000
1914-21.62028435100000000
891814-31.321264271000000000
1713-51.32226427100000000
881714-41.120214191000000000
871715-30.817163131000000000
861615-40.51211271000000000
851616-30.37614000000000
841516-40.233120000000000
831517-30.11101000000
821417-40.00000000
811418-30.000000
801318-40.000000
791319-3No000
781320-2No00
50-77No
Total:1.4%9.419.32.043.70.51.51.10.10.10.30.00.00.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

FridayNone
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Colorado vs Los Angeles-0.4-0.4-0.3+0.3+0.3+1.0
Dallas vs Winnipeg+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0+0.0-0.1
Minnesota vs Columbus+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Nashville vs Florida+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1
St. Louis vs Ottawa+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1
Edmonton vs Calgary+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.0*-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
120350-052472
115322-1255025
114312-2137313
113302-34135618
112303-22373921532
111293-30263892231
110294-202335825521
109284-30142814271142
108285-209241525177030
107275-3516182122121600
106276-2210171526192910
105266-315169272341321
104256-40213425259154100
103257-301922023151793000
102247-4006014192316166000
101248-3004081228122310100
100238-400205730830144100
99239-3001232843217101100
98229-4011123231182021000
972210-300018127163323000
962110-400013021124527000
952111-300090157552111000
942011-400050946011712000
932012-3000305260122240000
921912-4000231550262911000
911913-31104702821622000
901813-400038026124452000
891814-30002802113049510000
881714-4000200150314141241000
871715-300139027315191031000
861615-400850201122319920000
851616-30420120721261872000
841516-42106031325261661000
831517-3010030161726251551000
821417-40010028192724135100
811418-3000002920282312410
801318-400000131122282210300
791319-300014122428209200
781219-4000015152528187100
771220-3001617282615410
761120-400292130241130
751121-30031224302181
741021-4015173228153
731022-30292534247
72922-41415323513
71923-318254322
70823-416174334
69824-31123057
68724-484250
67725-32971
66625-45050
65525-55050
50-64100
Total:0000011618431113111144432111000000