Colorado Avalanche Playoff Chances

Beat Toronto 4-2, playoff odds up 5.7 to 83.3%
57 points   27 16-3

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Monday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Toronto 2 Colorado 4 +4.6
+0.3
+0.1
Chicago 0 Tampa Bay 2 +0.6
-0.0
Minnesota 3 Ottawa 1 -0.5
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Calgary vs Buffalo-0.2-0.2*-0.1+0.2*+0.2+0.6
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Montreal vs Colorado-5.3-1.0-1.0+2.6+2.9+3.0
-0.4-0.1*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
-0.2-0.1-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1
St. Louis vs Ottawa-0.4-0.3-0.4+0.4+0.4+1.1
Dallas vs Florida-0.4-0.4-0.3*+0.2+0.2+0.8
Anaheim vs NY Rangers-0.3-0.3-0.3*+0.1*+0.1+0.4
Vancouver vs Los Angeles+0.4*+0.1*+0.1-0.3-0.3-0.2
San Jose vs Winnipeg*-0.0-0.2*-0.2*-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Nashville vs Tampa Bay+0.1*+0.0*+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0
Vegas vs Columbus-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0*+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Colorado finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
125-129In99.8%100465*
124332-1In87.588138*
123311-4In94.194617*
122323-1In90.895565*
121313-2In81.3964160*
120303-3In74.09181361*
119304-2In65.69091926*
118294-3In53.7831521,855*
117295-2In44.57917303,581*
116285-3In33.97223506,803*
115286-2In23.163298012,079*
114276-3In15.3543412020,463*
113266-4In9.2443917032,847*
112267-3In4.93442231049,837*
111257-4In2.42543302073,785*
110258-3In1.017423740103,994*
109248-4In0.3113844700140,468*
108249-3In0.1632491200183,055*
107239-4In0.0326521910229,318*
1062310-3In0.0119512720277,469*
1052210-4100.0%0.01124635500322,460*
1042211-3100.0No084043910362,876*
1032111-4100.0No0431481610394,921*
1022112-399.9No02224924300414,310*
1012012-499.5No01144532700421,343*
1002013-398.5No08383814100413,564*
991913-495.8No04294022400391,640*
981914-390.0No022037329100360,545*
971814-479.9No0112293817300322,746*
961815-364.7No007193927710278,313*
951715-447.3No031133351530232,353*
941716-330.0No015233825710189,446*
931616-416.4No0121434341420147,950*
921617-37.7No001726392350112,608*
911517-43.1No00316373310083,171*
901518-31.0No0019314118158,953*
891418-40.3No0042244282040,920*
881419-30.1No021441394027,331*
871319-40.0No01835488017,993*
861320-3OutNo04275514011,363*
851220-4OutNo0219572116,776*
841221-3OutNo112563024,112*
831121-4OutNo06504042,267*
821122-3OutNo03424871,342*
811022-4OutNo02335212658*
801023-3OutNo215821365*
791024-2OutNo1185031153*
78924-3OutNo19453674*
77925-2OutNo11385145*
76825-3OutNo6385616*
75826-2OutNo33679*
74726-3OutNo50502*
73525-6OutNo1001
57036-0OutNo1981462
Total:83.3%0.4%281925171285310005,758,644

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Colorado finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupVegasNashvilleWinnipegSan JoseDallasLos AngelesCalgarySt. LouisMinnesotaAnaheimChicagoEdmontonVancouver
129360-06.9%38515610172356
125342-033.36733
124332-1No3813131325
123311-423.5181212123512
122323-14.6693152112614392
121313-25.68921988162146
120303-37.83942079201675
119304-27.34842067212046
118294-38.5049421472219450
117295-27.306103216620194500
116285-37.30612321561919450
115286-27.207133225518184500
114276-36.90815323451716340
113266-47.109173234417153400
112267-37.0012212233415142400
111257-46.6014242233314132300
110258-36.501627222231311230
109248-46.4019301212212101200
108249-36.102132120121191200
107239-46.102334119111081200
1062310-35.9125351181198110
1052210-45.82263601711970100
2311-25.72263611711970100
1042211-35.63273611601860100
2110-55.7327360160186010
1032111-45.56283611500860100
2212-25.6628361150086010
1022112-35.6929351130075010
2011-55.4929351130075010
1012012-45.413293311100640100
2113-25.41229331120065010
1911-65.51429321100064010
1002013-35.3183030190054010
1912-55.31929301910530100
991913-45.12529261710420000
2014-25.12529261710430100
981914-34.83126221510320000
1813-54.93126221510320000
971814-44.23322171310210000
961815-33.43117121200110000
951715-42.4261171100000000
941716-31.617741000000000
931616-40.81032000000000
921617-30.45210000000000
911517-40.22100000000
901518-30.11000000
891519-20.000000
881419-30.0000
871218-60.0000
57-86No
Total:4.7%12.821.824.90.910.30.70.75.64.50.30.90.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Monday100.0*Lottery seed
Toronto 2 Colorado 4 -0.8
Minnesota 3 Ottawa 1 +0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Montreal vs Colorado+1.0+0.2+0.2-0.5-0.6-0.6
Dallas vs Florida+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.2
San Jose vs Winnipeg-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Nashville vs Tampa Bay+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
St. Louis vs Ottawa+0.1+0.0+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
129360-01000
125342-0100
124332-18813
123311-4946
122323-19155
121313-281154
120303-3741781
119304-2662591
118294-35429152
117295-2453517300
116285-3343823500
115286-22340290710
114276-3153834010200
113266-493539013300
112267-3529420166010
111257-422242119110200
110258-3116401201614000
109248-40103622023270000
108249-306303172930120000
107239-403223143350190010
1062310-30115493390260020
1052210-401935291203411500
1042211-30533231403921910
1032111-402211514141331610
1022112-30110812138560240300
1012012-4001048230690320700
1002013-3000152196120380140100
991913-4000022106130400220400
981914-3000011441113613209100
971814-400001128127238017300
961815-30000014117338127710
951715-400002183321351530
941716-3000011322133725710
931616-4000011113333415200
921617-3000000432337257100
911517-400001212333415300
901518-30000152136269200
891418-40002102833197100
881419-30004163028165100
871319-4001720302612300
861320-302102431238100
851220-4014132831185100
841221-30161932271230
831121-4019253322810
821122-30151532301340
811022-40110233225810
801023-33143133145
791024-211820353041
78924-315153824143
77925-229362727
76825-31319253113
75826-222332222
73-74100
57036-033264
Total:02713105117250171120742110000000000