Colorado Avalanche Playoff Chances

Beat Los Angeles 3-2, playoff odds up 7 to 74.6%
4 points   2 1-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Los Angeles 2 Colorado 3 +5.1
+0.5
+1.2
Ottawa 3 Winnipeg 4 (ot)-0.4
Florida 5 Chicago 4 (ot)*-0.1
*-0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Nashville vs Carolina-0.5-0.6-0.4*+0.2*+0.1+0.9
-0.1*-0.1*-0.0*-0.1*+0.0+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
St. Louis vs San Jose-0.6-0.7-0.5+0.4*+0.2+1.0
Anaheim vs Minnesota+0.7*+0.0*-0.0-0.5-0.8-0.7
+0.1*+0.0*+0.0*-0.1*-0.1-0.1
Vancouver vs Montreal+0.2*-0.0*-0.0*-0.1-0.1-0.1
Vegas vs Arizona-0.1*-0.0*-0.1*+0.1*-0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Colorado finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
91-110In99.8%100621*
90418-4In99.21000262*
88-89In99.71001,217*
87399-5In99.410001,376*
863910-4In98.7100002,324*
853810-5In98.099003,815*
843811-4In96.899106,008*
833711-5In94.698119,109*
823712-4In91.89811013,507*
813612-5In87.99622020,094*
803613-4In81.99442028,226*
793513-5In74.09154038,641*
783514-4In63.987760052,549*
773414-5In52.5811180068,943*
763314-6In40.17414111087,427*
753315-5In27.365181610110,499*
743215-6100.0%16.5542321200134,558*
733216-5100.08.5432726300160,862*
723116-6100.03.5313032600186,600*
713117-599.91.121323710100212,282*
703017-699.80.3133041142000236,541*
693018-599.60.062742204000255,702*
682918-699.00.0322412670100273,017*
672919-597.7No11637311202000283,798*
662819-695.3No0113235171400287,876*
652820-591.3No0625362238100287,774*
642720-685.2No04183423712200279,137*
632721-576.6No212292113175100265,787*
622621-665.9No1723152021112000248,086*
612622-553.8No041782521176100226,236*
602522-641.4No02113251823134100201,748*
592523-530.2No01712212242110300176,714*
582423-620.1No0030166192619710150,934*
572424-512.9No00201131326271540126,942*
562324-67.5No001071720302391104,318*
552325-54.2No00040313283017483,431*
542225-62.1No002017223426765,811*
532226-51.0No010041532341450,824*
522126-60.5No0102928392138,293*
512127-50.2No0001521423128,357*
502027-60.1No000315404220,254*
492028-50.0No00110375114,408*
481928-6OutNo016316210,135*
471929-50.0No00327706,700*
461829-6OutNo0222764,505*
451830-5OutNo0115842,854*
441730-6OutNo110891,893*
431731-5OutNo09901,182*
421631-6OutNo694673*
411632-5OutNo0693398*
401633-4OutNo298247*
391533-5OutNo397131*
381433-6OutNo19982*
4-37OutNo100472*
Total:74.6%5.9%141119168665443214,874,180

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Colorado finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupVegasCalgaryNashvilleMinnesotaWinnipegDallasArizonaSt. LouisAnaheimSan JoseLos AngelesVancouverEdmontonChicago
110530-014.1%1141252143991114122
98465-2NoYes
97444-5NoYes
96467-0No333333
95446-311.12211332211
94425-67.1777714142977
93437-38.69333961169914966
92427-46.59444413913151374
91428-38.2471571173111547133
90418-410.3847856857999123
89408-511.5686654104111079114
88409-410.68645661061198884
87399-511.37556659699811104
863910-49.98756659598810104
853810-510.66556661061099994
843811-410.286566610591081084
833711-510.3765666105999984
823712-410.776666696999984
813612-510.5766776106999884
803613-410.576677696888884
793513-510.776778796888884
783514-410.666788797888774
773414-510.366889887887774
763314-610.265999888777764
753315-510.155101010978776664
743215-610.2551111111069666554
733216-59.94412121211610555544
723116-69.74413131312510544444
713117-59.53314141413411444334
703017-69.33315151514412333334
693018-59.13316161514312333224
682918-68.83316161614312322224
672919-58.54416161514312222214
662819-68.04416161514212222114
652820-57.65415151413211222114
642720-67.06514141312210222113
632721-56.2651212111029221113
622621-65.37510108827221112
612622-54.375786625211001
602522-63.374564424111001
592523-52.464342322111000
582423-61.552231211111000
572424-51.032121111110000
562324-60.621110010000000
552325-50.311000000000000
542225-60.210000000000000
532226-50.100000000000000
522126-60.0000000000000
512228-30.0000000000000
502229-20.000000000
492129-30.000
482231-0No
471929-5No0
4-46No
Total:6.7%4.53.810.510.710.09.43.28.02.72.62.42.01.92.8
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Los Angeles 2 Colorado 3 -1.1
Ottawa 3 Winnipeg 4 (ot)+0.1
Florida 5 Chicago 4 (ot)+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Nashville vs Carolina+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.0-0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Anaheim vs Minnesota-0.1+0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
St. Louis vs San Jose+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
92-110100
91428-3991
90418-49900
89408-5100
88409-4991
87399-59910
863910-499100
853810-598100
843811-497210
833711-595411
823712-4926110
813612-58882020
803613-482123020
793513-5741750400
783514-464237060000
773414-5522910080000
763314-64034131110010
753315-5273817214100100
743215-617381941830020000
733216-58352072051030000
723116-6328181219102060000
713117-512015171616509101000
703017-601210211121811220020000
693018-5065225231031361040000
682918-603219220118121220710100
672919-511150149148185193002000
662819-600100761932083107104100
652820-500603219118989132062000
642720-6004111601171551951851000
632721-520011054202198589520000
622621-61007212001481251110620000
612622-50004101608520281312731000
602522-600200113223139141510520000
592523-50100711210139151713731000
582423-6000030016001391619161041000
572424-5000020011001381521191362000
562324-600100700138152221147200
552325-500040013816232315610
542225-60020001381725241451
532226-501001310202824112
522126-6010014132530206
512127-500002618323012
502027-60000311273721
492028-50016214032
481928-6003143844
471929-5000193655
461829-6053065
451830-5022276
441730-621782
431731-511386
421631-6991
411632-50892
401633-4496
391533-5595
381433-6199
4-37100
Total:6847463635253525222222222221111