Colorado Avalanche Playoff Chances

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 57.1%
0 points   0 0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Los Angeles vs San Jose+0.0-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2+0.1
Calgary vs Vancouver+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Minnesota vs Colorado-4.6-0.5-0.4+4.1+4.5+4.9
-0.3-0.0-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
-0.8-0.1-0.1+0.7+0.8+0.9
St. Louis vs NY Rangers-0.3-0.3-0.3+0.1+0.1+0.5
Nashville vs Ottawa-0.3-0.3-0.3+0.1+0.1+0.5
Arizona vs Winnipeg+0.2-0.2-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.1
Pittsburgh vs Anaheim+0.3*+0.0*+0.0-0.2-0.3-0.3
Dallas vs Chicago+0.1-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3+0.1
Edmonton vs Calgary+0.0-0.2-0.1-0.2-0.2+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Colorado finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
124-164In100.0%10011,706*
1235716-9In99.810003,044*
1225717-8In99.7100004,998*
1215617-9In99.7100008,020*
1205618-8In99.41000012,450*
1195518-9In99.01000018,544*
1185519-8In98.4990028,321*
1175419-9In97.6991042,145*
1165420-8In96.29811061,074*
1155320-9In94.5981187,391*
1145321-8In91.897210122,406*
1135221-9In88.095320169,254*
1125121-10In83.193430229,599*
1115122-9In76.8906400308,474*
1105022-10In68.9868600405,099*
1095023-9In59.18011900525,405*
1084923-10In48.574141100669,272*
1074924-9In37.2661815100841,890*
1064824-10In26.45821191001,039,818*
1054825-9In16.84825243001,264,075*
1044725-10100.0%9.438282940001,516,146*
1034726-9100.04.529303471001,791,326*
1024626-10100.01.8203039101002,083,868*
1014627-9100.00.5132942142002,384,856*
1004527-10100.00.1826431940002,694,094*
994528-9100.00.04224325610002,997,523*
984428-1099.90.021740301020003,287,453*
974429-999.60.011236341430003,548,546*
964329-1098.90.0083036186100003,782,732*
954330-997.0No0523362211300003,972,345*
944230-1093.0No0317342316610004,106,486*
934231-985.5No021229212111310004,192,087*
924131-1073.8No01724172417720004,209,997*
914132-958.6No004181224231341004,179,831*
904032-1041.9No0213720262092004,086,312*
894033-926.8No0184142526166103,934,480*
883933-1015.3No0152820282311303,738,538*
873934-97.8No0031414262818613,502,613*
863834-103.5No0010282130251123,237,223*
853835-91.5No0010141428311842,945,421*
843735-100.6No000002923332582,649,355*
833736-90.2No000015163233132,346,733*
823636-100.1No000002112938202,050,411*
813637-90.0No0000162341281,763,701*
803537-100.0No000041741371,497,193*
793538-90.0No000021239471,255,681*
783438-100.0No0001835561,035,790*
773439-90.0No000053065843,982*
763339-10OutNo0032473678,689*
753340-9OutNo0021979537,304*
743240-10OutNo0011584419,024*
733241-9OutNo001188322,555*
723141-10OutNo00892244,745*
713142-9OutNo00694183,534*
703042-10OutNo0496135,443*
693043-9OutNo039798,346*
682943-10OutNo029870,383*
672944-9OutNo019949,992*
662844-10OutNo019934,538*
652845-9OutNo19923,772*
642745-10OutNo010015,973*
632746-9OutNo010010,838*
622646-10OutNo01006,894*
612647-9OutNo01004,741*
602547-10OutNo01002,971*
592548-9OutNo01001,860*
55-58OutNo1002,426*
542250-10OutNo199147*
532251-9OutNo10087*
522151-10OutNo39732*
0-51OutNo1007,378*
Total:57.1%3.3%7714147777777788,339,380

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Colorado finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupWinnipegNashvilleArizonaDallasMinnesotaChicagoCalgaryVancouverSt. LouisSan JoseEdmontonAnaheimLos Angeles
164820-07.7%7788778878987
1376510-7YesYes
1366410-850.05050
1356411-7NoYes
1346210-1040.040202020
1336211-920.010202020101010
1326111-10No88815238238
1316314-5No6311914317391114
1306012-108.94551374117799137
1296114-76.8886858101372898
1286014-87.389711875877896
1275914-97.510779988697578
1265915-88.1109810987587577
1255815-96.89988987687776
1245816-87.489791097777777
1235716-97.39879987797777
1225717-87.89979896787777
1215617-97.39979987697777
1205618-87.79979997787777
1195518-97.69978997797776
1185519-87.49979997797677
1175419-97.39979997797777
1165420-87.59979997797777
1155320-97.59979997797777
1145321-87.49979996797777
1135221-97.49979997797767
1125121-107.49969997696667
1115122-97.59969996696666
1105022-107.49969996696666
1095023-97.4109610101066106666
1084923-107.31010610101066106666
1074924-97.31010610101066106666
1064824-107.21011510101055105555
1054825-97.11111511111155115555
1044725-107.01111511111155115555
1034726-96.91212412121244124444
1024626-106.81212412121244124444
1014627-96.61313313131333133333
1004527-106.51313313131333133333
994528-96.31313313131333133333
984428-106.21313313131333133333
974429-96.11313313131333133333
964329-105.91313313131333133333
954330-95.71313313131333133333
944230-105.31212312121233123333
934231-94.91010310101033103333
924131-104.29939993393333
914132-93.37737773373333
904032-102.35525552252222
894033-91.53313331131111
883933-100.92212221121111
873934-90.41101110010000
863834-100.20000000000000
853835-90.10000000000000
843836-80.00000000000000
833736-90.00000000000000
823636-100.00000000000000
813637-90.00000000000000
803638-80.00000000000
793639-70.0000000
783438-100.000000
773540-7No0
0-76No
Total:3.5%7.07.02.27.07.07.02.22.27.02.22.22.22.2
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

WednesdayNone
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Minnesota vs Colorado+1.0+0.1+0.1-0.9-1.0-1.1
St. Louis vs NY Rangers+0.0+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Nashville vs Ottawa+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Arizona vs Winnipeg-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Dallas vs Chicago-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1+0.1-0.0

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
127-164100
1265915-81000
1255815-9100
1245816-81000
1235716-910000
1225717-8100000
1215617-9100000
1205618-899000
1195518-999100
1185519-898100
1175419-998110
1165420-8962110
1155320-9953101
1145321-89252010
1135221-988730200
1125121-108310403000
1115122-977136040000
1105022-1069178060000
1095023-95921110800000
1084923-1048261401100000
1074924-9372917114101000
1064824-102631202181010000
1054825-917312232121030000
1044725-10929235235204000000
1034726-9424228238306001000
1024626-1021819122013609101000
1014627-911214151517901210020000
1004527-10071017102012115310400000
994528-904516520153157206010000
984428-10023142171571312509120000
974429-90111101212119168111330000
964329-100008078155181121266010000
954330-90050341621713511119130000
944230-10003012140121110716124510000
934231-90020011107715318111094100000
924131-10001007044161167171294100000
914132-9000004012150123211013105200000
904032-100002011120711961316137310000
894033-90001008040142714181610410000
883933-100001005020803815201912620000
873934-9000003104013816212114720000
863834-1000001002001381622221572000
853835-900001001000138162323167200
843735-1000000000013817242315610
833736-9000000001391926231341
823636-1000000000141222282292
813637-9000000016152729174
803537-10000000292132269
793538-9000001415303416
783438-10000029253925
773439-9000015194035
763339-100002133946
753340-900183457
743240-1000052966
733241-900032374
723141-100011881
713142-9011386
703042-10001090
693043-900793
682943-100595
672944-900397
662844-100298
652845-9298
642745-10199
632746-9199
622646-100100
612647-90100
602547-100100
592548-90100
582549-80100
572449-9100
562349-100100
552350-90100
542250-10199
532251-9100
522151-10397
0-51100
Total:343434343434343522333333333333