Chicago Blackhawks Playoff Chances

Lost to Philadelphia 1-3, playoff odds down 2.1 to 94.8%
35 points   16 7-3

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Philadelphia 3 Chicago 1 -1.0
-0.2
-2.1
St. Louis 2 Winnipeg 3 (ot)-0.1
Vancouver 3 Toronto 2 (so)*-0.1
Arizona 2 Columbus 3 (so)*+0.1
-0.2
Colorado 0 Dallas 3 +0.1
NY Rangers 4 Carolina 2 -0.3
Tampa Bay 2 Washington 1 (so)*-0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Chicago vs Winnipeg+1.2+1.0+0.8-0.6-0.6-2.2
+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0*-0.1-0.2
+0.9+0.9+0.8-0.6-0.6-1.7
Los Angeles vs Montreal-0.1-0.1-0.1*+0.0*+0.0+0.2
+0.3*+0.1*+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2
Nashville vs Philadelphia-0.1-0.1*-0.1*+0.1*+0.0+0.1
-0.0*-0.0*-0.0*+0.0*+0.1+0.1
Calgary vs Anaheim*+0.0-0.1-0.1*-0.1-0.1+0.1
Edmonton vs Minnesota*-0.0-0.1*-0.1*-0.0*-0.0+0.0
+0.0*-0.0*+0.0-0.1*-0.0*-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Chicago finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
129-147InYes100830*
128447-5In98.4%98262*
124-127In99.21001,567*
123419-6In98.710001,353*
1224110-5In98.110002,411*
1214010-6In96.7100003,873*
1204011-5In95.6100006,187*
1193911-6In93.3100009,942*
1183912-5In89.7990015,400*
1173812-6In85.1991023,102*
1163813-5In80.0991133,827*
1153713-6In73.49821047,837*
1143714-5In65.59621066,027*
1133614-6In56.89432088,383*
1123615-5In46.691530117,544*
1113515-6In36.888750150,910*
1103516-5In27.08310700189,799*
1093416-6In18.477131000233,601*
1083316-7In11.669171400281,536*
1073317-6In6.360211810329,060*
1063217-7In3.150252320377,356*
1053218-6In1.3402929300424,529*
1043118-7In0.5303134500466,653*
1033119-6In0.1213239800501,884*
1023019-7In0.01431441110528,584*
1013020-6In0.0828471620544,064*
1002920-7100.0%0.04244822300548,227*
992921-6100.0No2194628500543,192*
982821-7100.0No1144334800525,646*
972822-6100.0No01038391210497,742*
962722-799.9No06324317200460,948*
952723-699.7No04254522400419,379*
942623-799.1No021944278100373,953*
932624-697.5No01134029142000326,167*
922524-794.1No183529215100277,963*
912525-687.9No0528262810200233,154*
902425-778.1No03222133174000192,469*
892426-664.9No02151533258100154,109*
882326-750.0No011093031153000121,150*
872327-634.9No006523342271093,607*
862227-722.4No00421633291330070,397*
852228-612.8No00211027332061052,142*
842128-76.7No0105203327112038,127*
832129-63.1No0002133032174026,869*
822029-71.2No00182334258118,732*
812030-60.4No000417333014212,652*
801930-70.1No0021127352158,565*
791931-60.1No01621352985,543*
781831-70.0No003143337133,638*
771832-6OutNo0192942182,196*
761833-5OutNo152541281,389*
751733-6OutNo03174436802*
741633-7OutNo2123848463*
731634-6OutNo1103455284*
721635-5OutNo72370150*
711535-6OutNo11306877*
701536-5OutNo2306743*
691436-6OutNo69417*
681336-7OutNo79314*
35-67OutNo100793*
Total:94.8%5.2%21152719843110009,456,920

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Chicago finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupSan JoseMinnesotaEdmontonAnaheimNashvilleSt. LouisLos AngelesWinnipegDallasCalgaryArizonaVancouverColorado
147560-06.9%4876911119812653
132454-7NoYes
131466-4No20402020
130456-56.771313771372077
129457-43.74447719114419117
128447-54.851510688151158262
127448-45.041161061281388392
126438-57.1378998131089473
125428-66.1557101010121198444
124429-56.447791091291010563
123419-66.95878111091287564
1224110-56.64887910111298563
1214010-66.748781011111188563
1204011-56.547781010111188553
1193911-66.347781011111198563
1183912-56.247781010121198663
1173812-66.347771010111198563
1163813-56.647781010111298553
1153713-66.247781010111198563
1143714-56.747781011111198553
1133614-66.447781111111198553
1123615-56.448781111111187553
1113515-66.448781212111187553
1103516-56.449771213111187553
1093416-66.249771313101086453
1083316-76.2410671415101076443
1073317-66.04126715169975443
1063217-75.93136617179965332
1053218-65.83155618198864332
1043118-75.63175520217753332
1033119-65.53184521226753222
1023019-75.43204423246642221
1013020-65.32223424255642111
1002920-75.12233325264541111
992921-65.03243326263531111
982821-74.83253326273531111
972822-64.74253326263531001
962722-74.65253325263530001
952723-64.56254424253530001
942623-74.48245423243430001
932624-64.39246522223420001
922524-74.111226620203320001
912525-63.912217617173210001
902425-73.512197614143210000
892426-62.811156511112110000
882326-72.3101254882100000
872327-61.57833551000000
862328-50.95522331000000
852228-60.6331122100000
842229-50.31211110000
832129-60.1110000000
822029-70.100000000
812030-60.00000000
802031-5No000000
792032-4No00
781730-9No0
35-77No
Total:5.0%4.618.54.64.619.820.35.26.04.12.31.71.71.5
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Philadelphia 3 Chicago 1 +0.6
Nashville 4 New Jersey 5 (ot)-0.0
St. Louis 2 Winnipeg 3 (ot)-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday100.0*Lottery seed
Chicago vs Winnipeg-0.5-0.5-0.4+0.2+0.3+0.9
Nashville vs Philadelphia+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Edmonton vs Minnesota-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
129-147100
128447-5982
127448-4991
126438-5100
125428-6991
124429-5991
123419-69910
1224110-59820
1214010-697300
1204011-596400
1193911-693600
1183912-5901000
1173812-685141000
1163813-5801911
1153713-6732420100
1143714-5653120100
1133614-6573830200
1123615-54745503000
1113515-63751715000
1103516-527569161000
1093416-61858112910000
1083316-712571341130000
1073317-6653147135001000
1063217-734714111491020000
1053218-6138131513141030000
1043118-70291120122030410000
1033119-602192392640620000
1023019-7014625530718400100
1013020-608424331939710100
1002920-7042221291179121020000
992921-6211802311127183041000
982821-710140179175245153000
972822-600901162122772661000
962722-700606422127966112000
952723-60043220023101251731000
942623-700211170188183234410000
932624-600100120125232285921000
922524-7100807325129417321000
912525-60005312402622644310000
902425-700031020021132366521000
892426-6000210150150332599631000
882326-70100109030138131383100
872327-600006502301512181593100
862227-70004216002816211793100
852228-60021100131120231893000
842128-7010500151423241782000
832129-600020027162524156100
822029-70010013919262313510
812030-6000014122227211020
801930-7000151526281761
791931-600028203024132
781831-70013122632215
771832-60252035289
761833-501413313517
751733-618264124
741633-7004203936
731634-62143944
721635-5182962
711535-6143461
701536-573063
691436-61288
681336-7793
35-67100
Total:516411412473925261400111110000000