Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Sports Club Stats, which I have open
in like seven browser tabs always
-Katie Baker

Carolina Hurricanes Playoff Chances 50/50

Plays at Nashville 8:00 PM, playoff odds down 0.9 to 54.3%

4 points 2 1-0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Win Stanley Cup	100.0*	Pres Trophy
Detroit 3 Columbus 2 (ot)	-0.5		*-0.1
Florida 5 Chicago 4 (ot)	-0.3		*-0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Nashville vs Carolina	-6.2-1.7-1.4+4.0+4.7+5.3		-0.4-0.1-0.1*+0.2+0.3+0.3		-1.2-0.4-0.3+0.9+1.0+1.0

Wednesday	None

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Carolina finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Division seed				Conference seed (wildcard race)
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1a	1b	2	3	WCb	WCa	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

88	-110						In		Yes		100														295	*
87		39	9		-	5	In		99.3	%	99	1													141	*
86		39	10		-	4	In		98.2		99	1													220	*
85		38	10		-	5	In		98.7		99	1													384	*
84		38	11		-	4	In		99.0		100	0													722	*
83		37	11		-	5	In		97.1		99	1	0												1,067	*
82		37	12		-	4	In		95.5		99	1	1												1,718	*
81		36	12		-	5	In		92.3		97	2	1												2,648	*
80		36	13		-	4	In		88.2		95	4	1												4,054	*
79		35	13		-	5	In		81.5		92	5	2												5,796	*
78		34	13		-	6	In		72.5		88	8	4	0											8,327	*
77		34	14		-	5	In		62.4		83	11	6	0											11,538	*
76		33	14		-	6	In		49.4		75	16	9	0	0										15,363	*
75		33	15		-	5	In		36.9		67	20	13	0	0										20,276	*
74		32	15		-	6	In		24.1		55	25	19	1	0										26,013	*
73		32	16		-	5	100.0	%	13.4		43	29	26	2	0		0								32,635	*
72		31	16		-	6	100.0		6.2		31	32	34	3	0		0								39,949	*
71		31	17		-	5	In		2.1		19	32	41	7	0										48,034	*
70		30	17		-	6	100.0		0.6		11	28	48	13	1	0	0	0							56,248	*
69		30	18		-	5	100.0		0.1		5	22	50	20	2	0	0	0							64,328	*
68		29	18		-	6	99.8		0.0		2	14	47	31	5	0	0	0							72,399	*
67		29	19		-	5	99.2		No		0	8	39	41	11	0	1	0	0						79,307	*
66		28	19		-	6	97.3		No		0	3	27	45	21	1	3	0	0						86,087	*
65		28	20		-	5	92.1		No		0	1	15	42	30	4	7	0	0						89,797	*
64		27	20		-	6	81.6		No			0	6	32	33	10	16	2	0						92,433	*
63		27	21		-	5	64.5		No			0	2	19	27	17	28	7	1	0					93,677	*
62		26	21		-	6	43.3		No			0	0	8	15	20	35	18	4	0	0				91,554	*
61		26	22		-	5	24.3		No				0	3	5	16	32	30	11	2	0	0			88,686	*
60		25	22		-	6	11.5		No				0	1	1	9	21	34	24	8	1	0	0		83,741	*
59		25	23		-	5	4.2		No				0	0	0	4	9	28	32	20	6	1	0		77,491	*
58		24	23		-	6	1.4		No				0	0	0	1	3	16	31	30	14	3	0		70,710	*
57		24	24		-	5	0.4		No				0	0	0	0	1	7	22	34	26	9	1		62,236	*
56		23	24		-	6	0.1		No				0	0		0	0	2	12	29	35	18	3		54,427	*
55		23	25		-	5	0.1		No					0		0	0	1	5	20	36	29	8		46,642	*
54		22	25		-	6	0.0		No							0	0	0	2	12	32	38	16		38,723	*
53		22	26		-	5	0.0		No							0		0	1	6	24	43	26		31,762	*
52		21	26		-	6	0.0		No					0		0		0	0	3	16	42	39		25,053	*
51		21	27		-	5	0.0		No							0		0	0	1	10	39	50		19,793	*
50		20	27		-	6	Out		No										0	0	6	33	61		15,274	*
49		20	28		-	5	Out		No										0	0	3	26	71		11,400	*
48		19	28		-	6	Out		No											0	2	19	79		8,302	*
47		19	29		-	5	Out		No												1	14	85		6,128	*
46		18	29		-	6	Out		No												0	10	90		4,209	*
45		18	30		-	5	Out		No												0	7	93		2,973	*
44		17	30		-	6	Out		No												0	4	96		1,936	*
43		17	31		-	5	Out		No												0	3	97		1,213	*
42		16	31		-	6	Out		No													2	98		840	*
41		16	32		-	5	Out		No													1	99		518	*
40		16	33		-	4	Out		No													1	99		323	*
39		14	32		-	7	Out		No														100		176	*
38		14	33		-	6	Out		No													1	99		110	*
37		14	34		-	5	Out		No													1	99		68	*
4	-36						Out		No														100		192	*

Total:							54.3	%	3.6	%	7	6	14	13	8	5	9	7	7	6	6	6	5		1,597,936

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Carolina finish out the regular season. Explain


If finish:									Chance will play in first round
TP		W		L	-	OT	Win Cup		Toronto	Calgary	Montreal	Winnipeg	Tampa Bay	Florida	Ottawa	Nashville	Dallas	Detroit	Edmonton	Vancouver	Columbus	Chicago

110		53	0		-	0	3.9	%			1		13	9		13	20	22	1		12	9
95		45	7		-	1	No														Yes
93		42	6		-	5	No								50						50
92		42	7		-	4	11.1		11	11			22	11		11						33
91		42	8		-	3	12.5				13		25		13		13	13	13		13
90		41	8		-	4	4.3		4	4	4		9	13		17	13		13		22
89		41	9		-	3	14.0		7	7	5		12	12	7	12	7	12	2	12	5	2
88		40	9		-	4	6.2		1	9	5	9	12	10	9	5	12	7	5	6	1	9
87		39	9		-	5	7.8		6	9	5	6	6	9	8	12	7	9	9	5	4	6
86		39	10		-	4	4.1		7	3	5	5	10	9	6	11	11	5	6	7	9	5
85		38	10		-	5	3.9		6	4	6	5	9	11	7	11	6	7	8	7	9	5
84		38	11		-	4	6.6		6	6	8	6	8	8	7	9	7	7	7	7	7	7
83		37	11		-	5	5.7		6	6	7	7	9	8	7	8	8	8	5	8	8	6
82		37	12		-	4	7.0		6	6	7	7	8	8	7	8	8	7	7	7	8	7
81		36	12		-	5	6.8		7	7	7	7	7	8	8	7	8	7	7	7	8	6
80		36	13		-	4	5.6		7	7	7	7	7	8	8	8	7	8	7	7	7	5
79		35	13		-	5	6.5		7	7	7	7	7	8	8	8	7	8	7	7	7	6
78		34	13		-	6	6.2		7	7	7	8	8	8	7	8	7	8	7	7	7	6
77		34	14		-	5	5.9		7	7	7	7	8	8	7	8	8	7	7	7	7	6
76		33	14		-	6	6.2		7	7	7	7	8	8	7	8	8	7	7	7	7	6
75		33	15		-	5	6.0		6	7	7	7	9	9	6	9	8	8	7	6	7	6
74		32	15		-	6	6.2		6	6	6	6	10	10	6	9	9	9	6	5	8	6
73		32	16		-	5	6.3		5	5	5	5	11	11	5	11	9	9	5	5	8	6
72		31	16		-	6	6.0		4	4	4	4	12	12	4	11	10	10	4	4	9	7
71		31	17		-	5	6.3		3	3	3	3	14	13	3	13	11	11	3	3	9	7
70		30	17		-	6	6.5		2	2	2	2	15	14	2	14	12	12	2	2	10	7
69		30	18		-	5	6.3		2	2	2	2	15	16	2	14	13	13	1	1	11	8
68		29	18		-	6	6.2		1	1	1	1	16	16	1	14	13	13	1	1	11	8
67		29	19		-	5	6.2		1	2	2	1	16	16	1	14	13	13	1	1	11	8
		30	20		-	3	6.2		2	2	2	1	16	16	1	14	13	13	1	1	11	7
66		28	19		-	6	6.1		2	2	2	2	16	15	1	14	13	12	1	1	10	7
		27	18		-	8	6.1		2	2	2	2	15	15	2	13	12	12	1	1	10	7
65		28	20		-	5	5.7		3	3	3	3	13	13	2	12	11	11	1	1	9	6
		29	21		-	3	5.7		3	3	3	3	13	14	2	12	11	10	2	1	9	6
64		27	20		-	6	5.4		4	4	4	3	12	12	2	10	9	9	2	2	7	5
		26	19		-	8	4.9		4	4	4	3	11	11	3	9	8	7	2	2	6	5
63		27	21		-	5	4.0		4	4	4	3	9	8	3	7	7	6	2	2	5	3
62		26	21		-	6	2.7		3	3	3	2	6	6	2	5	4	4	1	1	3	2
61		26	22		-	5	1.5		2	2	2	1	3	3	1	3	2	2	1	1	1	1
60		26	23		-	4	0.7		1	1	1	1	2	2	0	1	1	1	0	0	1	0
59		25	23		-	5	0.3		0	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
58		25	24		-	4	0.1		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
57		24	24		-	5	0.0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0	0
56		24	25		-	4	0.0			0			0	0		0	0	0		0	0	0
55		23	25		-	5	0.0						0	0		0	0	0			0	0
54		23	26		-	4	No						0	0		0	0	0			0	0
53		22	26		-	5	0.0						0	0		0	0	0			0	0
52		22	27		-	4	No						0	0			0				0
51		21	27		-	5	No						0
4	-50						No

Total:							3.4	%	2.0	2.0	2.0	1.8	7.5	7.5	1.7	6.7	6.1	5.9	1.3	1.3	4.9	3.6

Points (Full Screen)

Chance Will Make Playoffs (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Detroit 3 Columbus 2 (ot)	+0.1
Florida 5 Chicago 4 (ot)	+0.1
Ottawa 3 Winnipeg 4 (ot)	+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Nashville vs Carolina	+1.3+0.3+0.2-0.9-1.1-1.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Toronto vs Edmonton	-0.0+0.1-0.0*-0.0+0.1-0.0
Vancouver vs Montreal	-0.0+0.0*+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.0
Anaheim vs Minnesota	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31

88	-110						100
87		39	9		-	5	99		1
86		39	10		-	4	98	0	1
85		38	10		-	5	99	1	1
84		38	11		-	4	99	1	0
83		37	11		-	5	97	1	1		0
82		37	12		-	4	95	3	1		1
81		36	12		-	5	92	5	2		1
80		36	13		-	4	88	7	4		1
79		35	13		-	5	81	11	5	0	2
78		34	13		-	6	72	16	8	0	4	0			0
77		34	14		-	5	62	20	11	0	6	0	0		0
76		33	14		-	6	49	26	15	1	8	0	0		0				0
75		33	15		-	5	37	30	18	1	12	0	0		0				0
74		32	15		-	6	24	31	22	3	17	1	0		1				0
73		32	16		-	5	13	30	23	6	22	3	1	0	2	0	0		0				0
72		31	16		-	6	6	25	22	10	24	7	3	0	3	0	0		0				0
71		31	17		-	5	2	17	18	14	24	12	5	0	7	0	0		0
70		30	17		-	6	1	10	11	17	19	18	10	1	11	1	0		1	0	0		0	0
69		30	18		-	5	0	5	6	16	11	22	14	3	16	3	1	0	2	0	0		0	0
68		29	18		-	6	0	2	2	13	4	20	15	8	19	9	3	0	5	0	0	0	0	0
67		29	19		-	5		0	1	7	1	13	11	13	16	17	7	1	10	1	0		1	0	0
66		28	19		-	6		0	0	3	0	6	6	15	9	22	11	3	16	5	1	0	3	0	0
65		28	20		-	5		0	0	1	0	2	2	11	3	19	12	9	17	13	3	0	7	1	0	0
64		27	20		-	6			0	0		0	0	6	0	10	7	14	12	22	8	2	13	4	1	0	0
63		27	21		-	5				0		0	0	2	0	3	2	13	4	23	10	7	17	12	5	1	0	0	0
62		26	21		-	6				0				0		1	0	7	1	14	7	12	14	20	14	7	2	0	0	0
61		26	22		-	5								0		0	0	3	0	5	3	13	6	16	21	17	10	4	1	0	0	0	0
60		25	22		-	6								0		0		1	0	1	1	9	1	7	15	21	20	14	7	2	1	0	0	0
59		25	23		-	5								0		0	0	0		0	0	4	0	1	5	12	20	22	18	11	5	1	0	0	0
58		24	23		-	6								0				0		0	0	1	0	0	1	4	9	17	22	21	14	7	2	1	0	0
57		24	24		-	5								0				0		0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	7	15	21	23	17	9	3	1	0	0
56		23	24		-	6								0				0				0			0	0	0	2	6	13	21	24	19	10	4	1	0
55		23	25		-	5												0				0				0	0	0	2	5	12	21	25	21	10	3	0
54		22	25		-	6																0					0	0	0	1	5	13	22	27	20	9	2
53		22	26		-	5																0							0	0	2	6	15	26	29	18	5
52		21	26		-	6												0				0								0	0	2	8	19	31	29	11
51		21	27		-	5																0								0	0	1	3	12	27	36	21
50		20	27		-	6																									0	0	1	6	21	39	32
49		20	28		-	5																										0	0	3	14	39	44
48		19	28		-	6																										0	0	1	8	34	57
47		19	29		-	5																											0	1	5	26	69
46		18	29		-	6																												0	2	21	77
45		18	30		-	5																												0	1	15	84
44		17	30		-	6																												0	0	10	90
43		17	31		-	5																													0	7	92
42		16	31		-	6																													0	4	96
41		16	32		-	5																														3	97
40		16	33		-	4																														2	98
39		14	32		-	7																															100
38		14	33		-	6																														2	98
37		14	34		-	5																														1	99
4	-36																																				100

Total:							4	4	3	3	4	4	3	3	4	4	2	3	4	5	2	3	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2