Calgary Flames Playoff Chances 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.5 to 65.9%

5 points 2 0-1

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy
Ottawa 3 Winnipeg 4 (ot)	-0.5
Florida 5 Chicago 4 (ot)			*-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy
Vancouver vs Montreal	+0.0-0.6-0.3*-0.3-0.5+0.2
Toronto vs Edmonton	+0.2-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.6*+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Calgary finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Division seed				Conference seed (wildcard race)
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1a	1b	2	3	WCb	WCa	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

87	-111						In		99.8	%	100														600	*
86		38	10		-	5	In		98.6		100	0													369	*
85		38	11		-	4	In		99.0		100	0													601	*
84		37	11		-	5	In		97.6		99	1													950	*
83		37	12		-	4	In		96.8		99	1	0												1,519	*
82		36	12		-	5	In		94.4		98	2	0												2,460	*
81		35	12		-	6	In		91.1		97	3	1												3,524	*
80		35	13		-	5	In		86.6		95	5	1	0											5,381	*
79		34	13		-	6	In		80.6		91	7	2												7,359	*
78		34	14		-	5	In		71.7		88	9	3												10,203	*
77		33	14		-	6	In		61.1		82	13	4												13,845	*
76		33	15		-	5	In		48.8		75	18	7	0											18,227	*
75		32	15		-	6	In		35.9		66	24	10	0											23,371	*
74		32	16		-	5	In		22.9		55	30	15	0	0										29,297	*
73		31	16		-	6	In		12.6		42	35	22	1	0										35,875	*
72		31	17		-	5	In		5.7		30	39	30	2	0										43,038	*
71		30	17		-	6	100.0	%	2.0		19	39	38	4	0		0								50,548	*
70		30	18		-	5	100.0		0.5		10	35	46	8	0		0								57,590	*
69		29	18		-	6	100.0		0.1		5	28	51	15	1	0	0								65,147	*
68		29	19		-	5	100.0		0.0		2	20	52	24	2	0	0	0							71,677	*
67		28	19		-	6	99.8		No		0	11	47	35	6	0	0	0							76,734	*
66		28	20		-	5	99.2		No		0	5	36	45	11	2	1	0							80,889	*
65		27	20		-	6	97.4		No		0	2	23	48	19	6	2	0	0						82,922	*
64		27	21		-	5	92.5		No		0	0	11	44	22	15	7	1	0	0					83,541	*
63		26	21		-	6	82.1		No			0	4	31	18	28	13	4	1	0	0				83,016	*
62		26	22		-	5	65.8		No			0	1	17	10	37	19	11	3	0	0				80,456	*
61		25	22		-	6	46.1		No				0	8	4	34	19	22	11	3	0	0			75,878	*
60		25	23		-	5	27.7		No				0	3	1	24	12	26	23	9	2	0	0		69,843	*
59		24	23		-	6	14.3		No				0	1	0	13	6	21	31	20	6	1	0		63,277	*
58		24	24		-	5	6.6		No				0	0	0	6	2	13	29	30	15	4	0		56,150	*
57		23	24		-	6	2.5		No				0	0		2	1	6	20	33	27	10	1		49,098	*
56		23	25		-	5	1.0		No				0	0	0	1	0	2	11	28	35	19	4		42,049	*
55		22	25		-	6	0.4		No					0		0	0	1	5	19	36	30	9		35,127	*
54		22	26		-	5	0.2		No					0		0	0	0	2	11	32	39	17		28,326	*
53		21	26		-	6	0.1		No					0		0		0	0	6	23	43	27		22,695	*
52		21	27		-	5	0.1		No					0		0		0	0	2	16	43	39		17,582	*
51		20	27		-	6	0.1		No					0		0			0	1	9	39	51		13,504	*
50		20	28		-	5	0.0		No							0				0	5	33	61		10,169	*
49		19	28		-	6	0.0		No							0				0	2	25	72		7,533	*
48		19	29		-	5	Out		No											0	1	20	79		5,369	*
47		18	29		-	6	Out		No												1	14	85		3,766	*
46		18	30		-	5	Out		No												1	11	88		2,663	*
45		17	30		-	6	Out		No												0	7	93		1,793	*
44		17	31		-	5	Out		No													5	95		1,137	*
43		16	31		-	6	Out		No												0	4	96		738	*
42		16	32		-	5	Out		No													1	99		478	*
41		15	32		-	6	Out		No													1	99		294	*
40		15	33		-	5	Out		No														100		180	*
39		15	34		-	4	Out		No													1	99		99	*
38		14	34		-	5	Out		No													1	99		67	*
5	-37						Out		No														100		176	*

Total:							65.9	%	4.7	%	9	10	17	16	5	9	4	5	6	5	5	5	4		1,437,130

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Calgary finish out the regular season. Explain


If finish:									Chance will play in first round
TP		W		L	-	OT	Win Cup		Toronto	Montreal	Winnipeg	Tampa Bay	Florida	Ottawa	Carolina	Nashville	Dallas	Detroit	Edmonton	Vancouver	Columbus	Chicago

111		53	0		-	0	2.6	%	21	13	19			19					10	17
97		44	5		-	4	No			Yes
95		43	6		-	4	No													Yes
94		44	8		-	1	No		50					50
93		43	8		-	2	No		20	20	40									20
92		41	7		-	5	No			11	33			11				11	33
91		41	8		-	4	No		4	13	8		4	33			4		8	21		4
90		41	9		-	3	6.1		15	12	15			15	3		3		15	21
89		40	9		-	4	3.3		18	18	20			11	7			2	11	10	2	2
88		39	9		-	5	10.5		22	12	8	1	2	21		3	2	1	13	14	2	1
87		39	10		-	4	5.8		13	18	18	2	1	12	3	1	1	1	11	15	3	0
86		38	10		-	5	5.4		15	15	11	1	1	14	2	2	1	2	15	17	3	1
85		38	11		-	4	5.0		15	15	16	3	2	14	1	2	2	3	11	12	2	2
84		37	11		-	5	6.3		15	14	14	1	2	16	3	2	3	2	10	13	2	3
83		37	12		-	4	5.7		14	15	15	2	2	13	2	3	2	2	12	13	3	2
82		36	12		-	5	6.3		15	14	15	2	2	15	2	3	3	2	11	11	2	2
81		35	12		-	6	6.1		14	13	15	2	2	14	3	3	3	3	12	11	3	2
80		35	13		-	5	5.9		13	13	14	3	3	14	3	3	3	3	11	12	3	3
79		34	13		-	6	6.5		13	13	13	3	3	13	3	3	3	3	11	12	3	3
78		34	14		-	5	6.5		13	13	12	3	3	13	3	3	4	4	11	11	4	3
77		33	14		-	6	6.4		13	12	12	4	4	12	4	4	4	4	11	11	4	3
76		33	15		-	5	6.3		12	12	12	4	4	12	4	4	4	4	10	10	4	4
75		32	15		-	6	6.2		12	12	12	4	4	11	4	4	4	5	10	10	4	4
74		32	16		-	5	6.3		12	12	12	4	4	11	4	5	4	5	9	10	4	4
73		31	16		-	6	6.4		12	12	12	4	4	11	5	4	4	4	9	9	4	4
72		31	17		-	5	6.2		13	13	12	4	4	11	4	4	4	4	9	9	4	3
71		30	17		-	6	6.2		14	14	13	4	4	12	4	4	4	4	9	10	4	3
70		30	18		-	5	6.3		15	15	14	3	3	13	3	3	3	3	10	10	3	2
69		29	18		-	6	6.2		16	16	15	2	2	13	2	3	2	2	10	10	2	2
68		29	19		-	5	6.3		17	17	16	2	2	14	2	2	2	2	11	11	2	1
67		28	19		-	6	6.3		18	18	17	1	1	15	1	1	1	1	11	11	1	1
66		28	20		-	5	6.3		18	18	17	1	1	15	1	1	1	1	11	12	1	1
65		27	20		-	6	6.1		17	17	16	2	2	14	2	2	1	1	11	11	1	1
64		27	21		-	5	5.9		15	15	14	3	3	12	2	2	2	2	9	9	1	1
63		26	21		-	6	5.1		13	13	11	4	4	10	3	3	3	2	7	7	2	1
62		26	22		-	5	4.1		10	10	8	4	4	7	3	3	3	2	4	4	2	1
61		25	22		-	6	3.0		7	7	6	3	3	4	2	3	2	2	3	3	1	1
60		25	23		-	5	1.8		4	4	4	2	2	3	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0
59		24	23		-	6	0.9		2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	0
58		24	24		-	5	0.4		1	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
57		24	25		-	4	0.2		1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
56		23	25		-	5	0.1		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
55		23	26		-	4	0.0		0	0	0	0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0
54		23	27		-	3	0.0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0				0	0
53		22	27		-	4	No		0	0	0			0					0	0
52		22	28		-	3	No		0	0	0			0					0	0
51		21	28		-	4	0.0			0				0					0	0
50		22	30		-	1	0.0		0		0
49		19	28		-	6	No		0
5	-48						No

Total:							4.1	%	10.3	10.2	9.5	2.2	2.2	8.4	2.0	2.0	1.8	1.8	6.4	6.4	1.5	1.2

Points (Full Screen)

Chance Will Make Playoffs (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Ottawa 3 Winnipeg 4 (ot)	+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Nashville vs Carolina	-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Toronto vs Edmonton	+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.1-0.0
Vancouver vs Montreal	-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1+0.1-0.0
St. Louis vs San Jose	+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31

88	-111						100
87		39	10		-	4	100	0
86		38	10		-	5	99	1	0
85		38	11		-	4	99	1	0
84		37	11		-	5	98	1	1
83		37	12		-	4	97	2	1		0
82		36	12		-	5	94	3	2		0
81		35	12		-	6	91	5	3		1
80		35	13		-	5	87	8	4	0	1				0
79		34	13		-	6	81	11	7	0	2	0
78		34	14		-	5	72	16	9	0	3
77		33	14		-	6	61	21	13	0	4	0
76		33	15		-	5	49	26	17	1	7	0	0		0
75		32	15		-	6	36	30	22	2	10	0	0		0		0
74		32	16		-	5	23	32	26	4	14	1	1		0				0
73		31	16		-	6	13	29	28	7	18	3	1	0	1	0			0
72		31	17		-	5	6	24	26	12	21	6	3	0	2	0	0		0
71		30	17		-	6	2	17	21	18	20	11	7	0	4	0	0		0				0
70		30	18		-	5	1	10	14	21	16	16	12	1	7	1	0		0				0
69		29	18		-	6	0	4	7	22	9	20	18	4	11	2	1	0	1	0	0		0
68		29	19		-	5	0	2	3	17	4	17	20	11	13	7	4	0	2	0	0		0	0
67		28	19		-	6		0	1	11	1	12	15	19	12	13	10	1	5	1	0		0	0
66		28	20		-	5		0	0	5	0	5	8	23	6	17	16	5	9	3	2	0	1	0	0
65		27	20		-	6		0	0	2	0	1	2	19	2	15	17	15	11	8	5	0	2	0	0
64		27	21		-	5		0	0	0		0	0	11	0	8	11	24	7	15	12	3	5	2	0	0	0
63		26	21		-	6				0		0	0	4	0	3	4	24	3	16	17	12	8	6	3	1	0	0	0
62		26	22		-	5				0		0	0	1		1	1	16	0	10	13	24	7	11	9	5	2	0	0	0	0
61		25	22		-	6								0		0	0	8	0	4	6	29	3	10	14	13	8	4	1	0	0	0
60		25	23		-	5								0		0	0	3	0	1	1	23	1	4	10	16	17	13	7	3	1	0	0
59		24	23		-	6								0				1		0	0	13	0	1	4	9	16	20	18	11	5	2	0	0	0
58		24	24		-	5								0			0	0		0	0	6	0	0	1	3	8	15	21	21	15	8	3	1	0	0
57		23	24		-	6								0				0			0	2		0	0	0	2	6	13	20	23	18	10	4	1	0	0
56		23	25		-	5								0				0		0		1			0	0	0	2	5	12	20	24	20	11	4	1	0
55		22	25		-	6												0				0				0	0	0	1	4	11	21	25	21	11	3	0
54		22	26		-	5												0				0						0	0	1	5	12	22	27	21	10	2
53		21	26		-	6												0				0							0	0	1	5	14	25	29	19	5
52		21	27		-	5												0				0								0	0	2	7	19	31	29	11
51		20	27		-	6												0				0									0	1	3	11	28	36	21
50		20	28		-	5																0									0	0	1	6	21	40	33
49		19	28		-	6																0											0	3	13	38	46
48		19	29		-	5																										0	0	1	8	34	57
47		18	29		-	6																												0	4	25	70
46		18	30		-	5																												0	3	20	77
45		17	30		-	6																													1	14	85
44		17	31		-	5																												0	1	10	89
43		16	31		-	6																													0	8	92
42		16	32		-	5																														5	95
41		15	32		-	6																														2	98
40		15	33		-	5																														2	98
39		15	34		-	4																														2	98
38		14	34		-	5																														1	99
5	-37																																				100

Total:							5	5	5	5	4	4	4	5	3	4	4	5	2	3	3	6	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2